According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on July 18th, the reference price for the domestic market of silicon metal # 441 was 9500 yuan/ton. Compared with July 13th (the market price of silicon metal # 441 was 9050 yuan/ton), the price increased by 450 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.97%.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that the domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 continued to rise and operate as a whole this week. During the week, the focus of negotiations in the silicon metal # 441 market continued to move towards higher levels, with the overall market price increasing by 200-400 yuan/ton. As of July 18th, the market price reference for metal silicon 441 # in East China is 9500-9600 yuan/ton, in Kunming it is 9400-9500 yuan/ton, in Huangpu Port it is around 9500-9600 yuan/ton, in Tianjin it is 9400-9500 yuan/ton, in Sichuan it is 9100-9200 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai it is 9700-9800 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
In terms of supply and output: Currently, there are devices reducing production in the northern region, while there are devices resuming production in the southern region. The output shows an increase in the south and a decrease in the north, resulting in a slight increase in overall supply. At present, the market price of metallic silicon is in the stage of recovery, and the market is still paying attention to the resumption of production and operation of silicon enterprises in the southwest and northern regions.
In terms of demand: Currently, the overall downstream demand for metallic silicon has improved, and the demand for raw materials for downstream organic silicon and polycrystalline silicon has improved compared to the previous period. The demand side has provided certain support to the metallic silicon market.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is mild, and the mentality of industry players is good. The transmission between supply and demand of metal silicon is still good. The metal silicon data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon spot market will mainly operate steadily with a moderate to strong trend, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine rose on July 17th. The average market price of bromine is around 26800 yuan/ton, up 3.47% from yesterday. On July 16th, the Business Society Bromine Index was 90.88, an increase of 2.11 points from yesterday, a decrease of 62.93% from the highest point of 245.18 points during the cycle (2021-10-27), and an increase of 54.24% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
This week, the price of bromine has remained strong, with a reference price of 26000-27000 yuan/ton for spot bromine production in Shandong region. Due to environmental reasons and the arrival of the rainy season, bromine production has decreased in the supply side, but downstream procurement remains cautious. In terms of raw materials, the domestic sulfur prices are operating steadily, with an average market price of 2297.67 yuan/ton. Downstream purchases should be made as needed.
Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain stable in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to consolidate. Bromine prices are expected to rise, while enterprise operating rates are expected to decrease. Downstream companies are expected to purchase as needed. It is expected that bromine will continue to maintain a strong market trend in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA spot market showed a downward trend in July. As of July 16th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 4735 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.81% from the beginning of the month.

The international oil price market is fluctuating. As of July 15th, the settlement price of the August WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $66.52 per barrel, and the settlement price of the September Brent crude oil futures contract was $68.71 per barrel. Geopolitical and tariff instability, the US sanctions plan against Russia will not be implemented in the short term, coupled with the ongoing OPEC+production increase, it is expected that the center of gravity of crude oil decline will weaken and adjust.
Recently, there has been little change in the PTA plant. Domestic PTA is in the production cycle, and there are relatively few maintenance plans in the second half of the year, resulting in relatively loose supply.
Downstream polyester production and sales are weak, and inventory continues to rise, with inventory rebounding. During the seasonal off-season of demand, the production and sales of polyester filament are under pressure. Manufacturers have repeatedly offered discounts on shipments, but the results have been minimal. Factory inventory continues to grow, and the market continues to be weak. We plan to continue implementing production cuts. Lack of demand for terminal weaving, insufficient orders, and maintenance of essential stock of raw materials.
Business analysts believe that the cost support of crude oil fluctuations is limited, and the PTA industry is expected to expand capacity, coupled with the expectation of polyester production reduction. Under the weak supply-demand situation, PTA will continue to be weak in the short term.

Price trend: first falling, then rising, and then weakening, showing an “inverted N-type” oscillation (7.8-7.15)
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, on July 15th, spot electrolytic nickel was reported at 120666.67 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.64% and a year-on-year decline of 10.94%, continuing to fluctuate weakly.

Macro level: intertwining long and short factors
Domestic favorable factors
Trade Policy: China ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiations completed, protocol signed within the year (favorable for regional raw material circulation)
Economic data: GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year (exceeding expectations), but the transmission of industrial metal demand has not yet emerged.
Overseas risk suppression
US tariff shock (core negative): On July 12th, it was announced to impose 20% -50% tariffs on 20+countries/regions (effective August 1st); Key categories: 50% copper, 200% pharmaceuticals (18 month buffer period), semiconductors (to be announced); Russia Ukraine affiliation clause: If no agreement is reached within 50 days, 100% tariffs and secondary sanctions will be imposed on Russia.
Federal Reserve policy divergence: Expectations of interest rate cuts are delayed, and the market’s probability of a rate cut in July has decreased from 80% to 35% (CME data). Officials have divergent views, with the mainstream faction (6/11 officials) supporting interest rate cuts within the year but excluding July, the hawks advocating for holding back for the whole year (the effect of tariff inflation remains to be observed), and the dovish faction calling for immediate action (Daley called for “two interest rate cuts in the autumn”).
Supply side: deepening of surplus pattern
Nickel ore: Indonesia’s RKAB quota has been approved at 360 million tons, but only 120 million tons were consumed in the first half of the year. The willingness of mines to raise prices has weakened, but downstream intermediate/refined nickel production capacity continues to be released, and it is expected that nickel ore prices will slow down.
Inventory changes: LME nickel inventory increased by 3960 tons to 206580 tons during the cycle, and domestic Shanghai nickel inventory increased by 722 tons to 21555 tons during the cycle. Global inventory increased rapidly during the week, and the surplus pattern has not changed.
Demand side: Weak dual line
Stainless steel (accounting for over 70% of nickel demand): The stainless steel production in July was 3.1655 million tons, a decrease of 9.58% compared to the previous month. Policy support: Multiple departments are cracking down on “internal competition”. On July 15th, the benchmark price of stainless steel was 12900 yuan/ton (up 9.7% weekly), and actual consumption is still in the off-season.
New energy (ternary battery): Marginal weakening of demand for nickel sulfate (June power battery installed capacity -5.3% month on month)
Market outlook: weak oscillation, central downward shift
If tariffs are implemented or the Federal Reserve delays interest rate cuts, or if the market is bearish, pay attention to the start of the stainless steel peak season stocking in August. If the domestic stainless steel destocking exceeds expectations, the bullish market may rise. It is expected that nickel prices will remain within a range of fluctuations.

Market situation

Recently, the melamine market has indeed faced the dilemma of negative sentiment and sluggish demand, leading to overall downward pressure on the market. However, in the long run, these negative factors will inevitably have a profound impact on the market. Affected by both sluggish demand and oversupply, the market price of melamine is showing a downward trend. As of July 14th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5862.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42% compared to the beginning of this month (5887.50 yuan/ton).
Downstream demand is sluggish: Downstream industries related to melamine, such as sheet metal and impregnation, have seen a decrease in operating load, resulting in an overall shortage of demand for melamine.
The real estate industry, as one of the important application areas of melamine, continues to be sluggish, with new construction areas and development investments continuing to decline, further weakening market demand.
Upstream raw material prices: The domestic urea market continues to operate in a stable, medium to strong trend, with some manufacturers offering slightly higher prices. The overall market transaction center has shifted upward, but the melamine market has not effectively boosted market demand. As of July 14th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1861.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.10% compared to the beginning of this month (1823.00 yuan/ton).
At present, the market atmosphere for melamine is average, and the market is operating weakly and steadily. Affected by the increase in supply and weak demand, the market price of melamine is expected to continue to operate at a low level. In the foreseeable future, with the gradual release of new production capacity and the gradual recovery of downstream demand, the supply and demand relationship in the melamine market is expected to be adjusted. However, in the short term, the market may still face pressure from oversupply, and the trend of low prices is difficult to change.
The export situation is severe: the export market for melamine is also facing severe challenges. On the one hand, the international market competition is fierce, and Chinese products need to face competition from other countries and regions; On the other hand, the international trade environment is complex and ever-changing, and uncertain factors such as trade barriers and technical barriers may affect the export of melamine.
Future prospects
With the gradual release of new production capacity and the gradual recovery of downstream demand (although currently sluggish), the supply-demand relationship in the melamine market is expected to be adjusted to some extent in the future. However, in the short term, the market may still face pressure from oversupply.
Low price operation: Affected by the increase in supply and weak demand, the market price of melamine is expected to continue to operate at a low level. The specific price trend still needs to be judged based on market dynamics and changes in supply and demand relationships.
In summary, the current melamine market is indeed facing the dilemma of negative sentiment and sluggish demand. However, by strictly controlling production capacity, improving product quality, expanding application areas, and strengthening international cooperation, enterprises can actively respond to market challenges and achieve sustainable development.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on July 14th, the reference market price for domestic silicon metal # 441 was 9140 yuan/ton. Compared with July 1st (the market price for silicon metal # 441 was 8730 yuan/ton), the price increased by 410 yuan/ton, a 4.70% increase.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in early July, the domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 showed a steady upward trend overall. In the first ten days, the spot market price of silicon metal # 441 in many regions of China has been continuously adjusted upwards, with a cumulative adjustment range of around 300-500 yuan/ton. As of July 14th, the market price reference for metal silicon 441 # in East China is 9200-9300 yuan/ton, in Kunming it is 9000-9200 yuan/ton, in Huangpu Port it is around 9200-9400 yuan/ton, in Tianjin it is 9000-9200 yuan/ton, in Sichuan it is 8600-8800 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai it is 9400-9600 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
In terms of raw material costs: Currently, the overall operation of the silica market is stable, and some mines have certain supply pressure. Currently, the ex factory price of high-grade silica mines in Inner Mongolia is referred to as 300-330 yuan/ton, the ex factory price of high-grade silica mines in Hubei is referred to as 290-330 yuan/ton, the ex factory price of low-grade silica mines in Jiangxi is referred to as 310-320 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of high-grade silica mines is referred to as around 380-420 yuan/ton.
In terms of supply and production: In July, Yunnan region entered a period of abundant water, and some metal silicon production capacity resumed. The metal silicon production in Sichuan Yunnan region is also expected to increase. Large factories in the north have reduced production, but most silicon companies have stable production. The overall production of metal silicon has increased, but the overall supply pressure is not great, and the supply side provides certain support to the market.
In terms of demand: As we enter July, the overall production of downstream organic silicon and polycrystalline markets for metallic silicon has slightly increased, and the demand for raw material metallic silicon has also improved. The demand side has provided enhanced support to the metallic silicon market.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the atmosphere in the metal silicon market is mild, and the mentality of the industry is good. The metal silicon data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon spot market will mainly operate steadily with a moderate to strong trend, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

According to price data, the price of polyester bottle flakes (PET) continued its weak downward trend this week, dropping from 6012 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5960 yuan/ton at the end of the week, with a weekly decline of 0.87%.

In terms of cost, the decline in crude oil prices, OPEC+production expectations, and uncertainty about US tariff policies have led to Brent crude oil falling to $68.64 per barrel (-2.21% MoM), directly dragging PTA spot prices down to $4870 per ton and ethylene glycol falling below $4400 per ton.
In terms of supply and demand, the weekly production decreased to 327000 tons (month on month -2.72 million tons), and the capacity utilization rate dropped to 71.5% (month on month -5.9 percentage points), mainly due to the joint production reduction of 20% by top enterprises such as Wankai and Yisheng. Despite the contraction of supply, the industry’s inventory days remained at a high level of 16-18 days, and sufficient spot circulation continued to suppress price rebound. The operating rate of soft drinks remains at 80% -90%, with high inventory of end products (such as 23.64 days in the finished product warehouse of textile enterprises), and only sporadic small orders for replenishment, without the motivation to chase price increases.
Overall, Shengyi Society believes that the polyester bottle chip market is in a triple game stage of weak cost support, strong supply contraction, and stable demand growth. If crude oil continues to decline or demand weakens, it may explore the support level of 5800 yuan/ton.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 7486 yuan/ton on July 1st and 7415 yuan/ton on July 10th, a decrease of 0.96%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 9550 yuan/ton on July 1st and 9516 yuan/ton on July 10th, a decrease of 0.35%. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 8112 yuan/ton on July 1st and 8070 yuan/ton on July 10th, a decrease of 0.52%.

Since July, the polyethylene market has mainly fluctuated and operated weakly. The market is not driven by effective positive news, and the market trend is not good. There are still expectations of an increase in the supply side, with the restart of maintenance equipment in the early stage and the gradual production of equipment. According to data statistics, it is expected that a production capacity of 3.1 million tons per year will be put into operation in the third and fourth quarters, and the pressure on the supply side is still ongoing. In July, the demand for agricultural film was in the off-season, and most enterprises were in a state of shutdown. The operating rate remained low, which dragged down the polyethylene market on the demand side. Positive macro policy news has boosted the polyethylene market.
Supply side pressure remains; The demand side is in the traditional off-season, and downstream factories are operating at a low level; With the support of domestic policies, it is expected that polyethylene will mainly operate in a narrow and weak range.

Recently (7.1-7.9), the butadiene rubber market has been weak and declining. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of July 9th, the butadiene rubber market price in East China was 11690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.10% from 11820 yuan/ton on the 1st. The price of raw material butadiene fluctuated slightly lower, but the cost of butadiene rubber still has support; The production of butadiene rubber is basically stable; Downstream semi steel tire production has slightly decreased, providing weak support for the demand for butadiene rubber. As of July 9th, the mainstream prices for Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding in East China were 11550-11900 yuan/ton.

Recently (7.1-7.9), the price of butadiene has been weak and fluctuating, and the cost of butadiene rubber continues to be supported. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 9th, the price of butadiene was 8966 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37% from 9000 yuan/ton on July 1st.
Recently (7.1-7.9), the domestic Shunding plant has been operating steadily at around 6.70%, but there are plans to restart 200000 ton plants from Xinke and Yanshan in the later stage, resulting in a slight increase in supply pressure.
Demand side: Recently (7.1-7.9), the production of downstream semi steel tires has slightly decreased, providing strong support for the demand in the butadiene rubber market. As of July 4th, the production of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has slightly decreased to around 7.0%; Around 6.40% of all steel tire production in Shandong tire enterprises has started..
Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the raw material butadiene market will consolidate weakly, and the cost of butadiene rubber will still be supported; Downstream semi steel tire production has slightly decreased, with weak supply and demand. Overall, it is expected that the Shunding rubber market will be mainly weak and volatile in the later period.

Price trend: first rising and then falling, short-term pressure (7.1-7.8)
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, on July 8th, spot electrolytic nickel was reported at 121450 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.21% and a year-on-year decline of 11.98%, continuing to fluctuate weakly.

Reason for fluctuation:
Rising first: The disturbance of Indonesia’s nickel ore quota policy (planned to be shortened to 1 year, and later the association strives to maintain it for 3 years), coupled with the decline in LME and domestic inventories, provides short-term support for the rebound of nickel prices.
Backward decline: Increased macro risk aversion (Trump tariff threat)+weak demand (stainless steel off-season, new energy substitution effect), suppressing rebound momentum.
Macro perspective: long and short intertwined, dominated by Federal Reserve policies and trade risks
Domestically:
The manufacturing PMI for June was 49.7% (two consecutive months of recovery), and the new orders index returned to the expansion range, indicating a marginal improvement in the manufacturing outlook, but it has not yet been transmitted to nickel demand.
The China Europe Strategic Dialogue is based on cooperation and has not yet had a direct impact on nickel trade.
Overseas:
The expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut has cooled down: June’s non farm payroll data exceeded expectations (adding 147000 people and reducing the unemployment rate to 4.1%), traders reduced their bets on interest rate cuts in July and September, and the strengthening of the US dollar suppressed metal prices.
Trump’s tariff threat: plans to impose 25% -40% tariffs on multiple countries (including nickel rich countries such as Indonesia and South Africa), which will take effect on August 1st. Market risk aversion is heating up, and the macro outlook is bearish on nickel prices. Indonesia has stated that as part of its tariff negotiations with the United States, it has proposed joint investment in a key mineral project. Involving the electric vehicle ecosystem related to nickel and other materials.
Supply side: Indonesian policy disturbance+loose mining side, cost decline
Indonesia’s nickel ore quota policy game: The government plans to shorten the quota cycle from 3 years to 1 year, but the Association of Nickel Miners (APNI) strongly opposes and demands to maintain it for 3 years. Policy uncertainty will support nickel prices in the short term.
Philippine nickel ore supply increases: With the end of the rainy season, shipments have rebounded and nickel ore inventories have accumulated at Chinese ports.
Cost reduction: Indonesia’s nickel ore domestic trade benchmark price in July decreased by 1.81% -1.84%. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines has weakened (NI1.3% CIF 45-47 US dollars/wet ton, NI1.5% CIF 58-61 US dollars/wet ton), and the marginal profit margin of smelting has improved.
Inventory changes: LME nickel inventory decreased by 1386 tons to 204620 tons during the cycle, and domestic Shanghai nickel inventory decreased by 388 tons to 20833 tons during the cycle. Global explicit inventory has decreased, but the surplus pattern has not changed.
Demand side: Weakness in both lines, obvious off-season characteristics
Stainless steel (accounting for over 70% of nickel demand):
Low season suppression: The high temperature in July suppressed construction and manufacturing activities, resulting in slow depletion of social inventory.

Export decline: Stainless steel exports in May decreased by 2.56% month on month and 4.66% year-on-year (due to the impact of anti-dumping policies).
Weak price rebound: On July 8th, the benchmark price of stainless steel was 12887.5 yuan/ton (up 0.88% weekly), but due to the expectation of steel mills reducing production, there is limited support for nickel demand.
New energy (ternary battery):
Policy benefits: Subsidies for new energy vehicles continue or stimulate demand for ternary batteries, but the increase in the proportion of lithium iron phosphate LFP batteries (cost advantage) weakens nickel consumption growth.
Market outlook: weak oscillation, central downward shift
Short term (July): Indonesia’s policy disturbance, inventory decline, and cost support have boosted prices, but the off-season demand and oversupply have hindered the upward trend. It is expected that nickel prices will remain within a range of fluctuations.