Price trend: first falling, then rising, and then weakening, showing an “inverted N-type” oscillation (7.8-7.15)
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, on July 15th, spot electrolytic nickel was reported at 120666.67 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.64% and a year-on-year decline of 10.94%, continuing to fluctuate weakly.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
Macro level: intertwining long and short factors
Domestic favorable factors
Trade Policy: China ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiations completed, protocol signed within the year (favorable for regional raw material circulation)
Economic data: GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year (exceeding expectations), but the transmission of industrial metal demand has not yet emerged.
Overseas risk suppression
US tariff shock (core negative): On July 12th, it was announced to impose 20% -50% tariffs on 20+countries/regions (effective August 1st); Key categories: 50% copper, 200% pharmaceuticals (18 month buffer period), semiconductors (to be announced); Russia Ukraine affiliation clause: If no agreement is reached within 50 days, 100% tariffs and secondary sanctions will be imposed on Russia.
Federal Reserve policy divergence: Expectations of interest rate cuts are delayed, and the market’s probability of a rate cut in July has decreased from 80% to 35% (CME data). Officials have divergent views, with the mainstream faction (6/11 officials) supporting interest rate cuts within the year but excluding July, the hawks advocating for holding back for the whole year (the effect of tariff inflation remains to be observed), and the dovish faction calling for immediate action (Daley called for “two interest rate cuts in the autumn”).
Supply side: deepening of surplus pattern
Nickel ore: Indonesia’s RKAB quota has been approved at 360 million tons, but only 120 million tons were consumed in the first half of the year. The willingness of mines to raise prices has weakened, but downstream intermediate/refined nickel production capacity continues to be released, and it is expected that nickel ore prices will slow down.
Inventory changes: LME nickel inventory increased by 3960 tons to 206580 tons during the cycle, and domestic Shanghai nickel inventory increased by 722 tons to 21555 tons during the cycle. Global inventory increased rapidly during the week, and the surplus pattern has not changed.
Demand side: Weak dual line
Stainless steel (accounting for over 70% of nickel demand): The stainless steel production in July was 3.1655 million tons, a decrease of 9.58% compared to the previous month. Policy support: Multiple departments are cracking down on “internal competition”. On July 15th, the benchmark price of stainless steel was 12900 yuan/ton (up 9.7% weekly), and actual consumption is still in the off-season.
New energy (ternary battery): Marginal weakening of demand for nickel sulfate (June power battery installed capacity -5.3% month on month)
Market outlook: weak oscillation, central downward shift
If tariffs are implemented or the Federal Reserve delays interest rate cuts, or if the market is bearish, pay attention to the start of the stainless steel peak season stocking in August. If the domestic stainless steel destocking exceeds expectations, the bullish market may rise. It is expected that nickel prices will remain within a range of fluctuations.
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