Commodity index: the polyacrylamide commodity index was 94.20 on April 28, which was flat with yesterday, down 12.07% from 107.13 (may 08, 2019), the highest point in the cycle, and 13.64% higher than the lowest point of 82.89 on August 02, 2020（ Note: cycle refers to April 1, 2019 to present)
Data show that since the end of the Spring Festival holiday in 2021, the water treatment manufacturers in Henan main production area will resume production after the year. In the next month, due to the huge increase of acrylonitrile cost, the market of polyacrylamide will go up all the way, with an upward range of more than 10%; At the end of March, it slightly corrected, and the range dropped to within 10%. In the middle of April, the water treatment manufacturers in Henan main production area continued to stop production due to environmental protection inspection started in mid March, and went through the repeated production stoppage and resumption of production intermittently, and finally resumed production in late April. Polyacrylamide has been in a small upward trend since April. The price of polyacrylamide cations in China (molecular weight 12 million and ionic degree 10-30) has been adjusted from 15116.67 yuan / ton to 15416.67 yuan / ton, with a range of 1.98%. Among them, the continuous production of production in the middle of April caused some manufacturers’ shortage of goods. Although the overall inventory is relatively sufficient and the demand is not warm, the local shortage of goods also has a certain impact on the market. The highest price after the year was about 15433 yuan / ton, the lowest point was 13883 yuan / ton when the work was resumed after the year, with a phased increase of 11%.
Upstream raw materials: since February, driven by the rising cost of raw materials and supply shortage, the price of acrylonitrile has been rising all the way, and the domestic price has reached the highest level in nearly five years: the mainstream quotation on February 18 is 12100 yuan / ton, 16500 yuan / ton in March 10 daily, up 4500 yuan / T, with a range of 36%; However, since mid March, influenced by the lower upstream price, the price of the upstream was lowered by 250 yuan / ton on the 15th, the mainstream market quotation was reduced to 16300 yuan / T, and Shanghai Secco cut the price by 300 yuan / T to 16000 yuan / ton on the 26th; In April, the domestic mainstream market price of acrylonitrile continued to decline, and the price remained stable at about RMB 14400 / T at the end of the month, with a downward range of 10%.
Secondly, natural gas is used in the production process. In February, the civil gas market in Shandong Province was staged in the Spring Festival, with different trends before and after the festival. Before the festival, the main trend was weak downward, and the post festival market was on a short roller coaster. In March, the LNG market changed its decline and returned to the rising route, and the civil gas market in Shandong Province increased significantly; But in mid March, it began to go down continuously, the rising situation was blocked, and the rebound market was not continued; Since the end of March, the LNG market is dominated by favorable factors and enters the upward channel again. In April, the civil market of liquefied gas continued to rise, and the price rose continuously, especially after the small and long holiday in Qingming, the civil gas market in Shandong began to push up continuously, with a large margin; But in late April, the civil LPG market showed “slide ride”, and the price fell 5-6% and remained stable basically. From the trend chart, it can be seen that the rise in late and early April is significantly different. Although the price is down a part from the early ten days, the current price of Shandong civil gas is relatively high, the downstream market atmosphere has recovered, the manufacturers are smooth to ship, most of the inventory is in controllable level. The market is still in a weak position, and the international crude oil is relatively weak. In addition, the weather temperature increases, and market demand is expected to weaken. According to the data monitoring of business agency, on February 18, the mainstream quotation of LNG Shandong market was 3900 yuan / ton, while that of April 28 daily was about 4173 yuan / ton, up about 15%.
Downstream demand: from 2021 to now, especially after, from mid February to mid March, the upstream raw material price has greatly increased, and the cost of polyacrylamide increases greatly. The polyacrylamide as downstream products will rise accordingly, and the procurement cost of downstream enterprises will increase greatly, and the procurement will not be active. In the early years, water treatment projects have not been restored, demand is weak, and polyacrylamide market is not good. Although the production period of environmental protection impact is from mid March to mid April, although inventory consumption is consumed, the demand has not changed much; This month, demand is still warm and hot. The change of polyacrylamide market this month is only affected by the inventory of each plant when the production is stopped.
Post market forecast: business community analysis shows that the domestic economy is stable and good at present, but the global macro-economy is affected by more uncertain factors under the influence of the peripheral, especially the recent epidemic has a serious impact on Southeast Asia. In addition to the obvious impact of inflation, the overall demand of overseas markets has weakened, which has a very obvious impact on multi industry, and then transmitted to the production links of multiple industries; Polyacrylamide, as an environmental protection water treatment product, is closely related to the environmental protection requirements of multi industry, and the demand is affected greatly. Secondly, under the national environmental protection objectives and regulatory requirements this year, environmental protection inspection is severe in all regions. Gongyi District, Henan, as the main production area of water treatment products, has also stopped production for rectification for about one month, but the inventory impact is not very large, especially after the resumption of production in the middle of the month, the supply is sufficient; According to the business society, some manufacturers in Gongyi area stop production again due to environmental protection factors, but the production stoppage is only partial. According to the analysis of local senior people, some manufacturers can not support the environmental protection factors, and strict requirements of policies will inevitably optimize the production organization, and some small factories may be eliminated. It is suggested that relevant manufacturers start from the overall situation view, Improve the production technology level as soon as possible, meet the environmental protection requirements, and maintain the long-term survival and development of the enterprise. In the latter market, if the production of related industries is continuously affected, the demand for water treatment projects can not be improved. In the short term, the market is stable, and the demand is still needed to be driven in the medium and long term.