The system of business society commodity index shows that the natural rubber commodity index on April 26 was 39.37, down 0.48 points from yesterday, down 60.63% from the peak point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and 44.32% higher than the lowest point of 27.28 on April 02, 2020（ Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
Figure 2: trend chart of mainstream price of natural rubber since April 2021
According to the data monitoring of business agency (100ppi.com), on April 1, 2021, the price of domestic total latex of natural rubber was 13300 yuan / ton, and that of rubber on April 26 was 13275 yuan / ton, with a downward range of only 0.19%; However, in fact, the natural rubber has gone out of the trend similar to “V”, with the lowest monthly value of 12757 yuan / ton on the 13th, and the maximum amplitude of the month is about 4% so far.
From the perspective of new rubber output, the main production area of natural rubber in China is gradually increased this month, but so far, the real rubber opening area can account for about half of the total area. According to local traders, most of the new latex was absorbed by local latex factories after the production; At present, the market is not much new emulsion, high price, some traders have no goods. In April, the epidemic in Southeast Asia rebounded, the situation was severe, Thailand had started curfew, and India was seriously out of control. Although the demand for rubber market is increasing, as India, which accounts for nearly 8% of rubber production, the industrial environment is damaged, not only the rubber output is affected, but the local demand for rubber products in China is also seriously affected. The most important is that the uncontrolled epidemic has led to global concerns about the future economic situation, and the rubber market has rebounded since mid April, It is not effective and sustainable. Latest global rubber monthly output data: the latest report released by ANRPC shows that the global rubber production increased by 1.3% to 91 million tons in march2021. Among them, Thailand decreased 10%, Indonesia increased by 2.8%, Vietnam by 12.5%, and Malaysia by 44.9%. In March, the global consumption of gum increased by 7.4% to 1234000 tons. Among them, China increased 3.3%, India increased by 40.8%, Thailand fell 8.4%, Malaysia increased by 3.4%.
From the downstream demand, from the tire manufacturer’s situation, the recent downstream factory commencement rate is slightly lower than that of last month: according to the data statistics, the starting rate of semi steel tire manufacturers in the week from April 16 to 22, 2021 is 72.67%, 0.10% lower than that of the previous year, and 14.59% year on year; The start rate of all steel tire manufacturers was 76.13%, down 1.21% on month, and 11.37% year on year. According to the automobile data, according to the passenger union news on April 22, the market expects the retail sales of passenger cars in narrow sense to be about 1.63 million, an increase of about 13.9% year-on-year. In the second quarter, the impact of chip shortage of manufacturers is prominent. The batch rhythm caused by insufficient capacity will move back to the terminal, bringing the emotion of discount recovery and buying wait-and-see. It is expected that the chip pressure will be relieved in the second half of the year. In addition, due to the complex and tense international relations, the repeated foreign epidemic, especially the influence of India’s runaway on the global economic recovery, downstream enterprises are full of worries and lack of confidence in the future of the market, and the trend from the rapid change of the market from 26 to the next can be seen.
From the aspect of inventory, the total inventory of the previous period was 177542 tons (-60) as of April 23, and the futures warehouse receipts were 174080 tons (-60). As of April 11, the inventory of Qingdao Bonded Zone continued to decline slightly, but the decline was narrowed due to the decrease of goods taken downstream.
From the aspect of import and export, China: according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on April 13, China imported 711000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in March 2021, an increase of 18.1% year-on-year. From January to March 2021, China imported 1791 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 8% from 1659000 tons in the same period in 2020. Thailand: in the first quarter of 2021, Thailand exported 870000 tons of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber), an increase of 11% year-on-year. Among them, the total export of standard rubber is 383000 tons, an increase of 17% year-on-year; The export of cigarette glue was 125000 tons, down 6% year on year; The export of latex is 351000 tons, an increase of 12% year on year. In the first quarter, the total export to China’s natural rubber was 299000 tons, down 1% year on year. Among them, the total export of standard rubber to China is 151000 tons, down 2% year on year; The total export of cigarette glue to China was 22000 tons, down 8% year on year; The total export of latex to China was 126000 tons, an increase of 2% year on year. In the first quarter, Thailand exported 328000 tons of mixed rubber, a year-on-year drop of 27%; The total export of mixed rubber to China was 327000 tons, down 27% year on year. Vietnam: Vietnam customs statistics show that the first quarter of Vietnam’s rubber import and export deficit has been the first in nearly ten years, according to the report of Vietnam’s cafef website on April 20. Affected by COVID-19, global rubber demand is strong. In the first quarter, Vietnam exported 674 million US dollars of rubber exports and 406 thousand and 500 tons of cargo, and the price and volume increased 103% and 78.5% compared with the same period last year. China has become the largest market for rubber exports in Vietnam, accounting for 69% of Vietnam’s rubber exports. In the first quarter, Vietnam rubber import amount was US $691million, with a cargo weight of 504900 tons, with the price and volume increasing by 136.9% and 176.9% compared with the same period last year. Cambodia became the largest source of imported rubber in Vietnam, accounting for 62% of the import volume of Vietnamese rubber.
From the policy perspective, according to the report of Thai media on April 5, Bayun, deputy deputy chief of the Ministry of agriculture and cooperatives of Thailand, presided over the meeting of the Mortgage Management Committee for supporting rubber production enterprises, deliberated on the standards and conditions of the credit support plan for rubber production enterprises, and the credit line of the whole project was 25billion baht. It is stipulated that the credit limit of each rubber enterprise shall not exceed 40% of 25billion baht. The new standards and conditions allow each rubber enterprise to apply for the loan line, so that all rubber enterprises can join the credit support plan and benefit the farmers. Another source said the rubber authority of Thailand had sold 104763.35 tons of national reserve reserves in a domestic auction, according to a news release on Tuesday. The “old stock” sold included cigarette flakes, 20 standard and other types of rubber, said Nakorn tangavirapat, the Bureau’s director. The rubber sold is no longer suitable for normal use for nine years of old stock, due to long-term storage, resulting in deterioration. The sell-off is designed to save maintenance costs and will not put pressure on the market rubber prices.
As for the back market, the business agency analysis believes that the rubber raw materials needed for the epidemic situation will still be tight, but due to the worries about the international economic situation in the future, the market has insufficient confidence in the downstream demand of tires and other downstream, and the natural rubber post support function is weak because the automobile enterprises are also facing the influence of the lack of “core” factors. The repeated epidemic in Southeast Asia may have a great impact on the local new rubber output. Under the condition that the new rubber output is affected, combined with the current situation that the new rubber quantity in the domestic production area is not large, the supply end may have a shortage of new rubber, and the dependence on the domestic existing inventory will increase, but in the case of weak demand support, the market will inevitably be affected by the reverse.