Monthly Archives: August 2018

The restart of the BASF Ludwigshafen TDI plant will have an impact on the market

After the re-launch of the TDI plant in BASF’s Ludwigshafen, Germany, the market will shift from continued supply tension to overcapacity and lower operating rates, and global prices may fall further.

The 300,000-tonne plant was originally planned to start in 2016, but due to a series of technical problems, it has only been fully restarted until now.

The global TDI market has been dependent on the start of the plant, plus Saudi Arabia’s Sadara’s annual capacity of 200,000 tons to balance supply and demand after the closure of other facilities in 2014-16.

However, the driving of BASF and Sadara was postponed, and a series of other shutdowns and force majeure incidents exacerbated market tensions, resulting in soaring TDI prices and widening the price gap between raw materials and toluene. Starting in June, prices are starting to fall as BASF is expected to restart.

It is reported that the BASF plant accounts for about 10% of the global TDI capacity of about 3 million tons per year.

The soaring price of TDI was caused by a large amount of parking and force majeure, especially affecting the Middle East. The TDI supply was also limited by the factory’s parking in 2014-16. The situation has not improved as the factories in BASF and Sadara have not started. If BASF’s load increases to 80% or more, sales in Europe and the Middle East will face downward pressure for 2-3 months. If the Sadara plant has any large output, it will have an impact on the Middle East market.

As new capacity goes into production and other parking is coming to an end. Before 2022, no new TDI capacity is expected to increase, and by 2021, increasing demand will increase the operating rate.

The TDI market is very stable and the top five producers control more than 70% of the market. BASF and its peers, Covestro, are the two largest producers in the world.

Last Friday, BASF’s CEO, Martin Brudemuller, said: “TDI has seen a special situation in the past year and a half and will now return to normal. We have a large supply around the world, of course we have to adjust our trading volume. .”

Hans-Ulrich Engel, the company’s chief financial officer, added: “The isocyanate business will have to be normalized, but its up cycle is longer than expected. But we see… Asian TDI (margin) may be in the next month normalization.”

With a 30% global market share, Covestro has achieved a profit of US$500 million due to the extremely tight TDI market in 2017.

This is expected to continue until BASF starts to normalize the market.

On July 26, Covestro announced its growth in the second quarter of this year. Although there are signs that the high price of some polyurethane products has begun to normalize, the company has raised its 2018 performance forecast to above 2017.

Covestro said: “There are indications that the market price in some product areas is normalizing, especially the soft foam precursor TDI.”

Since 2017, high TDI and MDI margins have increased EBITDA for that year by 70.6% to 3.4 billion euros. From the performance of the first six months of 2018, Covestro said that this year may exceed last year.

povidone Iodine

China’s xylene imports increased significantly in the first half of 2018

In the first half of 2018, China’s xylene imports increased significantly compared with the same period of last year. According to customs data, China’s xylene imports from January to June totaled about 308,800 tons, an increase of 73,600 tons compared with the same period of last year, an increase of about 29.79%. Although the increase of more than 70,000 tons is not large, the increase is still considerable. According to the performance of each month, as shown in the following figure, the import volume in January was the most, and it fell in 2-4 months, but it was still higher than the same period of last year, and the import volume rebounded from May to June.

In the case of increasing domestic aromatics production capacity, xylene imports are still significantly higher than last year, reflecting the optimism of merchants on the Chinese market demand. Judging from the difference between the domestic and foreign prices of xylene in East China, the first half of the first half of the year and the majority of the time in April were in the same state. In most of the other time, the external price difference was in an upside down state, which was not conducive to xylene import, but many reasons made domestic merchants There is still a certain tendency to import xylene.

Bacillus thuringiensis

Based on the view of the spring market, the import of xylene in the January-February period was more positive, but at the same time, the inventory level of the East China Port was high, and the demand did not follow up in time, which caused the market to decline significantly, and the import supply failed to profit. At the same time, it also affected the enthusiasm of merchants in March and April. However, the inventory level of Huadong Port was seriously reduced in May, and the internal and external disk arbitrage space was large. The news that Tenglong Aromatics PX plant is expected to restart in the middle of the year made the importing of xylene enthusiasm again, which led to an increase in xylene import from May to June.

In the second half of the year, it is expected that the import of xylene will be reduced again in July-August. The primary influencing factor is the sharp decline in the RMB caused by the Sino-US trade war. The unstable exchange rate makes merchants import more cautious. Although the domestic xylene market trend still has a lot of expectations in August, the external disk price is 300-400 yuan/ton higher than the domestic price. The further increase of domestic price may not exceed this range. In addition, from July to August, it will be subject to Japanese solar iron work. The equipment is still in the process of overhaul, and the supply of xylene in Asia is relatively tight. Therefore, the import of xylene from July to August is expected to be at a low level during the year.

In the second half to the fourth quarter of the third quarter, xylene imports are expected to continue to rise, mainly due to the overhaul of PX devices in South Korea and Taiwan. Among them, Formosa Plastics plans to overhaul the No. 2 plant in Maitun from mid-August to August in August. Day, the No. 2 plant has an annual output of 573,000 tons of PX, 427,000 tons of pure benzene and 160,000 tons of OX. Korea Lotte plans to overhaul two PX plants in October for one month, of which the No. 1 plant has a PX rated capacity of 250,000 tons. / Year, the capacity of the No. 2 plant is 525,000 tons / year. More PX equipment overhaul will make the supply of Asian xylene more abundant in the second half of the third quarter and the fourth quarter. In addition, the Japanese solar iron aromatics unit is expected to restart in September, and the plant will produce 700,000 tons of isomerized xylene per year. The supply of toluene will increase. Therefore, the relationship between the internal and external discs is expected to reverse gradually from August to October, which will help domestic xylene imports rebound.

Benzalkonium chloride

The phosphate compound fertilizer industry is gradually picking up, and listed companies will obviously benefit from sitting on phosphate rock.

Since 2018, with the increasingly strict environmental protection and environmental protection in the economic belt along the Yangtze River, phosphate rock and phosphate fertilizer have entered the stage of de-capacity, the supply and demand structure has improved, prices have continued to rise, and the phosphate fertilizer industry has rebounded. For the second half of the market outlook, Tianfeng Securities predicts that the pressure of future environmental protection and supply-side reform will continue. With the peak season of phosphate fertilizer demand coming from August to October, the price of phosphate fertilizer products is expected to continue to rise, which will also promote Sylt and Xinyang. The profitability of Fengfeng and other phosphate compound fertilizers continued to increase.

Benzalkonium chloride

Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that from 2018 to April, the country’s cumulative production of phosphate ore was 32.7 million tons, compared with 46.94 million tons in the same period last year, a decrease of 14.24 million tons, down 30% year-on-year. It is understood that the production of phosphate fertilizer in the Yangtze River Economic Belt accounts for more than 80% of the country’s total output. With the promulgation of the “Eco-Environmental Protection Plan for the Yangtze River Economic Belt” and other documents, the production and production stoppage policies of major phosphate producing areas along the Yangtze River have been introduced. Under the pressure, the decline in phosphate ore production and supply tightening are the mainstream trends in the current industry.

Under the overall requirements of “Great Yangtze River Protection”, the phosphate compound fertilizer industry is faced with not only the shutdown and relocation, but also the historical opportunity of capacity replacement and optimization of structure. “Environmental and safety supervision and upgrading has brought not only pain to the industry, but also opportunities for industrial upgrading and advantageous enterprises,” said Chen Qingjun, deputy chief engineer of the Petrochemical Industry Planning Institute.

povidone Iodine
Cinda Securities Guo Jingwei, Zhang Yansheng and Li Wei and other researchers pointed out that in the next three years, China’s phosphate rock-phosphorus fertilizer industry chain will usher in further integration. On the one hand, the phosphate industry integration, the scarcity of phosphate rock resources will be reflected, on the other hand The Yangtze River protection, one kilometer along the Yangtze River and other environmental protection policies will eliminate some small and medium-sized phosphate fertilizer enterprises that do not have the relocation strength. The concentration of phosphate fertilizer industry and the profitability of enterprises will be improved. We are optimistic about the vertical integration of phosphate resources such as Sylt and Xinyangfeng. Chemical company.

Take the example of Phosphate Compound Fertilizer Sylt, which has four production bases in Ningguo, Xuanzhou, Zhangzhou and Guizhou, with 1.5 million tons of compound fertilizer and 750,000 tons of monoammonium phosphate capacity, relying on pyrite-sulfuric acid. A complete integrated industrial chain of phosphoric acid-monoammonium phosphate-complex fertilizer, based on significant cost advantages and cost-effective products, has a stronger competitive advantage in the case of fiercer competition in the terminal. It is expected to fully benefit as the price of phosphate fertilizer continues to rise. The performance growth dividend in the industry boom.

According to the investigation and evaluation of Tianfeng Securities, the compound fertilizer gradually recovered and the phosphate fertilizer boom continued to rise. The superimposed pyrite project and pyrite-based acid production project significantly increased the performance, and the performance of Sierte is expected to continue to grow.

“With the Yangtze River protection policy and the supply of phosphate ore continue to shrink, the decline in phosphate fertilizer production is much faster than the decline in domestic demand and export volume, thus supporting the long-term trend of phosphate fertilizer prices.” Founder Securities analyst Li Yonglei said that From August to October, the peak demand for phosphate fertilizers will come, and the price of superimposed agricultural products will increase. In the second half of the year, the price and demand of phosphate fertilizer will increase overall, which will help phosphate compound fertilizer enterprises to win performance growth by virtue of cost advantage and product advantage.

COMEX July 31st Copper Review

NEW YORK, July 31 news, COMEX copper rose to the highest level in two weeks on Tuesday.

August copper futures closed up 4 cents at $2.8190 a pound.

The most active September copper contract closed 3.95 cents higher at $2.8315 per pound.

Copper prices have rebounded slightly since hitting a one-year low earlier this month, but are still down nearly 14% from the four-year high set in June. Despite the price increase on Tuesday, copper futures were the worst since September 2017.

Some analysts worry that protecting the lives will reduce the demand for copper, which is used in everything from air conditioners to electric vehicles.

The Chilean state-owned copper company (Codelco) Chuquicamata copper mine union leader said that the copper miners left their posts on Monday and blocked the mine’s entrances and exits.

The Chilean state-owned copper company criticized the act as “illegal.” The copper mine is the company’s second largest copper mine.

BHP Billiton’s Escondida copper mine union leader said on Monday that the union is expected to reject the final version of the salary contract proposed by the employer, increasing the possibility of a strike. The mine is the world’s largest copper mine.

http://www.lubonchem.com/