1、 Market price overview

The increased willingness of melamine companies to raise prices this week may be driven by multiple factors. As of May 8th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5900.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.42% compared to the beginning of this month (5925.00 yuan/ton).
2、 Market supply and demand situation
1. Cost side support: The main raw material for melamine is urea. If urea prices are affected by rising energy costs such as coal and natural gas or supply shortages in the near future, the production costs of enterprises may increase, and the pressure may be transferred through price increases. As of May 8th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1906.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.69% compared to the beginning of this month (1875.00 yuan/ton).
2. Supply side contraction: The industry enters a period of centralized maintenance, or in some areas, production capacity is limited due to environmental policies and safety production inspections, resulting in short-term supply reduction and increased bargaining power of enterprises.
3. Demand: The international market demand has rebounded (such as the growth in demand for building materials and coatings in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and other regions), or overseas production has been impacted by the energy crisis (such as the reduction of melamine production capacity in Europe), leading to an increase in export orders from domestic enterprises and supporting domestic trade prices.
If downstream industries such as sheet metal and coatings enter the peak production season (such as the release of demand in the real estate post cycle), or if downstream enterprises replenish their inventory to drive procurement enthusiasm, it may drive up prices.
3、 Inventory and price
1. Inventory situation: Due to weak downstream demand, the inventory pressure of melamine enterprises is gradually increasing. However, due to the relatively controllable overall inventory pressure, the company did not adopt a strategy of large-scale price reduction and promotion, but chose to temporarily stabilize prices until market demand recovers.
2. Price trend: Recently, the price of melamine has been relatively stable but showing a weak downward trend. In the first quarter, with the gradual release of new production capacity and the continued weakness of downstream demand, the price of melamine further fell and operated at a low level. In the near future, with the gradual adjustment of supply and demand, the price of melamine is expected to stabilize or even rebound slightly.
4、 Market outlook
Due to the constantly changing supply and demand relationship, production costs, and other factors, the market price of melamine may continue to fluctuate. With the gradual release of new production capacity and the sustained weakness of downstream demand, competition in the melamine market may further intensify. Against the backdrop of gradually improving international trade environment, the export market for melamine in China is expected to further expand, which will have a certain impact on domestic market prices.
In summary, the market atmosphere for melamine this week was average, but due to the overall low inventory pressure, prices have temporarily stabilized. In the foreseeable future, with the gradual adjustment of supply and demand and the continuous changes in policy environment, the melamine market is expected to usher in new development opportunities.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on May 7th, the reference price for the domestic market of silicon metal # 441 was 9690 yuan/ton. Compared with April 30th (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 9880 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.92%.

From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that after the May Day holiday, the domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 has shown an overall weak downward trend. The spot market price of silicon metal has continued to decline. As of May 7th, the reference market price for silicon metal 441 in East China is around 9400-9500 yuan/ton, and the reference market price for silicon metal 441 # in Tianjin is 9300-9400 yuan/ton. The market price reference for metal silicon 441 # in Sichuan region is 9500-9700 yuan/ton. The market price reference for metallic silicon 441 # in Shanghai is 9700-10000 yuan/ton.
analysis of influencing factors
In terms of supply and demand: After the holiday, it is difficult to improve the weak supply-demand situation in the domestic silicon metal market. In early May, some silicon companies in the northern region experienced a slight reduction in production, resulting in a decrease in the overall operating rate of the metal silicon market. In terms of demand, the downstream demand market for metallic silicon remains sluggish, and demand transmission is slow.
In terms of raw materials, the overall market for metallic silicon raw materials in the silica market is weak, with some areas experiencing a narrow downward adjustment in silica prices. Among them, the price of high-grade silica ore in Jiangxi is referenced around 420-460 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 5 yuan/ton, while the price of low-grade silica ore in Jiangxi is referenced around 330-370 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 10 yuan/ton.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is relatively weak, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment within the market. Downstream users are cautious in their purchases. The metal silicon data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly adjust and operate weakly, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of formic acid has recently experienced a correction. As of May 6th, the average price of 85% industrial grade formic acid in China was 3033 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.21% from 3166 yuan/ton at the end of April before the holiday, and a decrease of 7.73% from 3287 yuan/ton at the same time last year.

Supply side: The production line of Asde formic acid has recently resumed production, with increased power output and sufficient on-site supply.
On the demand side: The performance on the demand side is average, and there are currently no strong supporting products. The market for pharmaceuticals and pesticides is average, and seasonal demand support is limited. The demand recovery in the leather industry is not satisfactory, and it is expected to continue to be weak.
In terms of cost, the basic pattern of methanol raw material remains weak, showing a weak situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand. Weakened support for formic acid.
The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the main producers of formic acid are all producing normally, with an increase in supply and weak cost support. It is expected that formic acid will operate weakly, and specific market supply and demand news still needs to be monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PP market in April showed weak consolidation, with prices of most brand products falling back. As of May 1st, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7481.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.08% compared to the price level at the beginning of April.

price trend
In terms of raw materials:
In early April, the US tariff policy was implemented, with tariff rates constantly changing and increasing to unprecedented heights. The tariff trade war launched by Trump has had a huge impact on the global economy. Crude oil, as a heavily affected area, has experienced a sharp drop in prices. Although some OPEC+members announced plans to compensate for overproduction in the middle of the month, the expectation of production contraction boosted oil prices to rebound slightly. However, the process of rebalancing supply and demand is still needed, and crude oil prices will fluctuate sharply in the short term and remain weak. At the same time, domestic propane prices have risen due to the impact of trade decoupling, but the increasing cost pressure has dragged down the production and profitability of PDH manufacturing enterprises. The downstream production position of propylene is not high, and there is insufficient chasing power on site, resulting in price fluctuations after rising. Overall, the prices of various raw materials in April did not provide strong support for the cost of PP.
Supply side:
In April, the load of domestic PP enterprises first increased and then decreased, and the market supply remained generally abundant. Overall, the industry’s overall load level increased from 76% at the beginning of the month to 79% in the middle of the month, and returned to around 76% at the end of the month. The average weekly production in China is about 820000 tons, and the total inventory gradually rises to a high of 820000 tons at the end of the month. The supply side provides moderate support for PP spot prices.
In terms of demand:
Since April, the demand side of PP has gradually weakened in consumption, and on-site trading has maintained a weak rigid demand pattern. In terms of plastic weaving, the consumption level of terminal enterprises has generally stabilized. The demand for PP in fields such as architecture and agriculture is gradually increasing with the warming of temperatures. However, under the influence of international news such as equivalent tariffs imposed by the United States, the global economy has been greatly impacted and future uncertainty has increased. The export and domestic demand of downstream PP products in China are both hindered, and buyers tend to maintain production with scattered small orders. Although there has been no significant increase in new orders in the market. Overall, the demand side of PP showed weak performance in April.
Future forecast
The domestic PP market prices fluctuated and fell in April. From a fundamental perspective, the overall performance of upstream raw materials in supporting PP is weak, the industry supply is abundant, and there is a significant contraction in consumption. The current industry trend is focused on the struggle between high inventory and weak consumption, with cautious on-site operations and frequent small order hedging purchases. In the short term, the supply-demand imbalance is unlikely to improve. It is recommended to closely monitor the situation of tariffs and the flow of goods.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall price of polyester filament yarn has shown a downward trend this month. As we enter the end of the month, the rebound in international crude oil prices has strengthened the cost support for PTA. Coupled with the announcement of major factory equipment maintenance plans, the supply side is expected to tighten, and the discount has narrowed. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on April 30th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6300-6500 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 7500-8000 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 6500-6800 yuan/ton.

Price trend: The price fell sharply in the first half of the year, and due to the “cliff like” drop in international crude oil prices, the cost side support for polyester filament collapsed. The price of POY 150D/48F fell from 6400-6700 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6300-6600 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 1.6%. Mid month weakness continued, crude oil prices fluctuated and adjusted, PTA spot prices fell 12.04% compared to the beginning of the month, and the cost side remained bearish. The price of polyester filament continues to decline, with POY quotes dropping to 6300-6600 yuan/ton. The factory has a strong desire to reduce inventory, but the production and sales rate remains low. In the latter half of the year, the rebound in international crude oil prices led to an increase in PTA cost support, coupled with the release of mainstream factory equipment maintenance plans, and the expectation of tightening supply side is heating up. Starting from April 25th, POY prices rebounded first to 6350 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 0.70% in weekly average prices; FDY and DTY also saw a slight increase.
In terms of cost, fluctuations in crude oil prices directly affect the cost of upstream raw materials PTA and MEG for polyester filament. The sharp drop in crude oil prices in April resulted in PTA processing fees being compressed to 296 yuan/ton, MEG coal to gas losses expanding to 239 yuan/ton, and the collapse of cost support triggering a chain decline in polyester filament prices. After the stabilization and rebound of crude oil in the latter half of the year, the rebound of PTA prices provided short-term cost support for polyester filament, but in the long run, it is still suppressed by the expectation of global economic recession and the high interest rate policy of the Federal Reserve.
On the demand side, the downstream weaving industry’s operating rate continues to be sluggish (with a weaving machine operating rate of 68% -70% in Jiangsu and Zhejiang), and the inventory of raw fabrics has risen to 24.14 days, with enterprises only maintaining a procurement of 4610 for essential needs. The uncertainty of US tariff policies has led to orders shifting to Southeast Asia, resulting in a 5.2% year-on-year decline in textile exports in April, directly affecting demand for polyester filament.
Overall, in the short term, due to the fluctuating upward trend of international crude oil prices, the support for PTA raw material costs has been strengthened. Coupled with the announcement of maintenance plans for some mainstream factories, the supply side is expected to tighten. It is expected that the price of polyester filament will maintain a narrow range of fluctuations, or remain stable with a slightly strong trend.

Aluminum prices fell in April

Aluminum prices fell in April. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 30, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20073.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.45% from the market average price of 20576.67 yuan/ton on April 1; Compared to the market average price of 19540 yuan/ton on April 9th, it has increased by 2.73%.
In early April, due to the impact of US tariff news, the commodity market experienced a stress response, and aluminum prices showed a significant decline. Subsequently, the price of aluminum ingots rebounded and began to return to fundamental considerations.
Fundamental Overview
Recently, the supply and demand fundamentals have remained stable, and consumption has shown resilience, especially in domestic consumption where resilience is strong. Policies to promote consumption are still evident. The export of terminal products has been impacted by US tariffs, but during the 90 day window period, transit trade is competing for exports, which makes the short-term tariff impact less prominent. However, the supply side remains mainly stable, with a slight increase in domestic operating capacity and little fluctuation in imports. Explicit inventory continues to be depleted.

Expectations for May
The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained relatively stable in April, with 2.8 million tons of newly built capacity in Hebei and Guangxi about to be put into use, but still leaving a significant gap. Theoretically, starting from May, there will be a monthly gap of 100000 tons. Domestic demand is relatively strong, providing some support for aluminum prices; However, under the pressure of global trade risks, the uncertainty of aluminum demand has increased. There is an expectation of a transition from shortage to surplus in aluminum supply and demand throughout the year. Under the influence of US tariffs, the export prospects of aluminum containing end products are bleak, and the demand for aluminum ingots is showing a strong internal and weak external trend, putting pressure on aluminum exports. It is expected that aluminum prices will hover around 20000 yuan/ton in the short term and enter a horizontal oscillation range.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall market situation of domestic polyester staple fiber in April showed weakness, with a significant decline at the beginning of the month, followed by stabilization. As of April 29th, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6359 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.87% from the beginning of the month.

The international crude oil market experienced significant fluctuations in April due to the impact of tariff trade. At the beginning of the month, the escalation of trade frictions led to a significant drop in crude oil prices. However, in mid month, as market concerns about the new US tariff policies eased, especially with the US showing a more relaxed attitude towards China in the trade war, international crude oil prices rose narrowly. On April 28th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $62.05 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $65.86 per barrel.
PTA followed the fluctuation of crude oil prices and showed a “V” – shaped trend of first falling and then rising in April. As of April 28th, the average price of PTA market in East China was 4565 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.03% from the beginning of the month. On the supply side, from April to June, there were many PTA planned maintenance units, and the circulation of spot goods gradually tightened. Among them, Jiatong Energy’s 2 million tons/year PTA unit and Hengli Huizhou’s 2 # 2.5 million tons/year unit were both scheduled for maintenance at the end of April, and the current industry operating rate is around 76%. In addition, in terms of new production capacity, Honggang Petrochemical’s 3 # 2.5 million ton unit is planned to be put into operation in mid June.
In terms of demand, under the current atmosphere of easing tariffs, some yarn factories have slightly increased their replenishment, but trade frictions are still unstable, and negative feedback from terminal weaving is heating up. The demand in the terminal consumer market is weak, and downstream fields such as clothing and home textiles continue to shrink in orders, with limited order volume and insufficient demand momentum. The weaving operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions continues to decrease to around 60%, and it is expected that some weaving operations will be suspended during the May Day holiday, further reducing the operating rate.
Business analysts believe that in the future, the cost side still needs to pay attention to the trend of oil prices. Multiple sets of PTA facilities in China have been shut down one after another, and the overall social inventory continues to decrease. However, due to weak demand, PTA prices lack sustained driving force. Before the holiday, the purchasing enthusiasm of yarn factories and traders is limited, and the inventory pressure of textile enterprises has increased. The market is still dominated by individual and small orders, with more on-demand procurement and production. Due to the lack of significant positive factors, it is expected that the price of polyester staple fiber will continue to adjust at a low level in May.

Market situation

Recently, the melamine market has indeed faced the dilemma of negative sentiment and sluggish demand, leading to overall downward pressure on the market. However, in the long run, these negative factors will inevitably have a profound impact on the market.
Affected by both sluggish demand and oversupply, the market price of melamine is showing a downward trend. As of April 28th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5937.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.26% compared to the beginning of this month (6137.50 yuan/ton).
Downstream demand is sluggish: Downstream industries related to melamine, such as sheet metal and impregnation, have seen a decrease in operating load, resulting in an overall shortage of demand for melamine.
The real estate industry, as one of the important application areas of melamine, continues to be sluggish, with new construction areas and development investments continuing to decline, further weakening market demand.
Upstream raw material prices: The domestic urea market continues to operate in a stable to weak trend, with some manufacturers experiencing a slight decrease in quotes, and the overall market transaction center shifting downwards. This has reduced the production cost of melamine, but has not effectively boosted market demand. As of April 28th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1870.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -6.36% compared to the beginning of this month (1997.00 yuan/ton).
At present, the market atmosphere for melamine is average, and the market is operating weakly and steadily. Affected by the increase in supply and weak demand, the market price of melamine is expected to continue to operate at a low level. In the foreseeable future, with the gradual release of new production capacity and the gradual recovery of downstream demand, the supply and demand relationship in the melamine market is expected to be adjusted. However, in the short term, the market may still face pressure from oversupply, and the trend of low prices is difficult to change.
Inventory backlog: With the increase in supply and insufficient demand, some companies’ inventory begins to accumulate. This not only increases the operating costs of the enterprise, but may also have adverse effects on subsequent production and sales.
The export situation is severe: the export market for melamine is also facing severe challenges. On the one hand, the international market competition is fierce, and Chinese products need to face competition from other countries and regions; On the other hand, the international trade environment is complex and ever-changing, and uncertain factors such as trade barriers and technical barriers may affect the export of melamine.
Future outlook for supply-demand adjustment: With the gradual release of new production capacity and the gradual recovery of downstream demand (although currently sluggish), the supply-demand relationship in the melamine market is expected to be adjusted to some extent in the future. However, in the short term, the market may still face pressure from oversupply.
Low price operation: Affected by the increase in supply and weak demand, the market price of melamine is expected to continue to operate at a low level. The specific price trend still needs to be judged based on market dynamics and changes in supply and demand relationships.
In summary, the current melamine market is indeed facing the dilemma of negative sentiment and sluggish demand. However, by strictly controlling production capacity, improving product quality, expanding application areas, and strengthening international cooperation, enterprises can actively respond to market challenges and achieve sustainable development.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA spot market in April showed a “V” trend of first falling and then rising. As of April 28th, the average price of PTA market in East China was 4567 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.98% from the beginning of the month.

Looking at the future market, from April to June, there will be more PTA scheduled maintenance facilities, and spot circulation will gradually tighten. Among them, Jiatong Energy’s 2 million tons/year PTA facility and Hengli Huizhou’s 2 # 2.5 million tons/year facility were both scheduled for maintenance at the end of April, and the current industry operating rate is around 76%. In addition, in terms of new production capacity, Honggang Petrochemical’s 3 # 2.5 million ton unit is planned to be put into operation in mid June.
The international crude oil market experienced significant fluctuations in April due to the impact of tariff trade. At the beginning of the month, the escalation of trade frictions led to a significant drop in crude oil prices. However, in mid month, as market concerns about the new US tariffs eased, especially with the US showing a more relaxed attitude towards China in the trade war, international crude oil prices rose. As of April 25th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $63.02 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $66.87 per barrel.
The downstream polyester production load remains at a high level of 90%, maintaining a tight balance between supply and demand. Under the current atmosphere of easing tariffs, some downstream enterprises have slightly increased their replenishment, but trade frictions remain unstable, and negative feedback from terminal weaving is heating up. With the gradual introduction of tariffs, the order volume of textile fabrics has decreased, and the demand momentum is insufficient. The weaving operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions continues to decrease to around 60%. It is expected that some weaving operations will be suspended during the May Day holiday, and the operating rate will further decrease.
Business analysts believe that multiple PTA facilities in China have been gradually shut down, and the overall social inventory continues to be depleted. As the May Day holiday approaches and there are many uncertain factors in the external news, there is more cautious sentiment in the downstream market, and PTA prices lack sustained driving force due to weak demand. It is expected that PTA prices will continue to follow cost fluctuations in the short term, and attention can be paid to the trend of oil prices.

Aluminum prices began to stabilize after a significant drop in April

After a significant drop in aluminum prices in April, they began to stabilize. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 27, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20083.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.40% from the market average price of 20576.67 yuan/ton on April 1; Compared to the market average price of 1940 yuan/ton on April 9th, it has increased by 2.78%.
In early April, due to the impact of US tariff news, the commodity market experienced a stress response, and aluminum prices showed a significant decline. The recent price recovery is mainly influenced by the following factors:
1. Macro influencing factors decline after price realization
After the impact factors of tariffs have been reflected in prices, their influence has weakened, and aluminum ingot prices have begun to return to fundamental considerations.
2. Cost side benefits are fully utilized to support cost recovery
Since April 2025, the Chinese alumina market has experienced a production reduction of up to 6.9 million tons due to frequent maintenance of roasting furnaces and some capacity reductions, resulting in a stabilization of alumina prices. In the early stage, due to the decrease in the cost of electrolytic aluminum, the cost support was relatively weak. Recently, with the depletion of cost side benefits, the negative feedback on the cost side of electrolytic aluminum has subsided.
3. High resilience on the demand side
The overall demand for aluminum downstream is supported. Although the operating rates of some downstream industries such as construction aluminum profiles have declined, the demand for aluminum for terminal power grid construction and photovoltaics is strong. Stimulated by the “trade in” policy and subsidies for new energy vehicles, the home appliance and automotive industries have maintained a certain market prosperity. The demand for aluminum plates, strips, foils and other fields has performed well, while the demand for air conditioning foils and battery foils is strong.
4. The supply side is relatively stable
The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained relatively stable in April, with 2.8 million tons of newly built capacity in Hebei and Guangxi about to be put into use, but still leaving a significant gap. Theoretically, starting from May, there will be a monthly gap of 100000 tons.

5. The aluminum ingots are well stocked
According to inventory data, as of April 24th, the total inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the mainstream domestic market was 664000 tons, a decrease of 110000 tons from the total social inventory of 774000 tons at the beginning of the month (4.3).