Price trend: (9.1-9.11) Under pressure, downward trend, volatile consolidation
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 11th, spot electrolytic nickel was reported at 121766 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.25% and a year-on-year decline of 0.18%. Since early September, nickel prices have shown a downward trend in focus, mainly suppressed by factors such as the continuous increase in global explicit inventories and slow recovery of stainless steel demand, resulting in a volatile and weak market pattern.
Macroscopically, long and short factors are intertwined, and nickel prices fluctuate and fluctuate
1. The impact of the Indonesian incident has weakened: At the end of August, protests in Indonesia briefly pushed up nickel prices, but production was not affected as it did not affect Sulawesi, the main producer of nickel iron. Market sentiment fell and nickel prices subsequently decreased.
2. US economic data strengthens expectations of interest rate cuts: Non farm employment in August is far lower than expected, unemployment rate rises to 4.3%, PPI growth slows down, and market expectations for Fed interest rate cuts are heating up, with a probability of over 96%. Loose expectations support a slight rebound in nickel prices.
3. The strengthening of the US dollar suppresses nickel prices: The rebound of the US dollar index puts pressure on commodities priced in US dollars, including nickel, limiting price rebounds.
Supply side: The mining side has abundant supply, and inventory continues to accumulate
Loose supply of nickel ore: The Philippines is still in the peak season for shipments, and the amount of nickel ore arriving at ports continues to increase, with prices overall stable. The benchmark price of nickel ore for domestic trade in Indonesia (second half of September) remained at $14900 per dry ton. After the impact of the rainy season subsided, mining shipments tended to stabilize and supply capacity increased.
Global explicit inventory hit a new high: LME nickel inventory increased significantly by 13608 tons per week to 223152 tons; The nickel inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 206 tons to 22111 tons during the cycle. The global total inventory level has reached a historical high, reflecting the current severe oversupply pattern, which continues to suppress price increases.
Demand side: Traditional demand is weak, and the growth of new energy provides long-term support
1. Stainless steel consumption remains sluggish
On September 11th, the benchmark price of stainless steel was reported at 13055 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.15% during the week. The market transaction atmosphere is average, with stable quotes from traders and on-demand purchases from end-users, resulting in limited acceptance of high priced resources. However, the industry still expects the traditional peak season of “Golden September and Silver October” to bring about a rebound in production scheduling. It is expected that if demand recovers in the later stage, the marginal demand for nickel will improve.
2. Strong demand for new energy, optimistic outlook for nickel sulfate
From January to July 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 8.232 million and 8.22 million respectively, an increase of 39.2% and 38.5% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 45%. With the high nickel content of ternary batteries becoming the mainstream technology path, nickel sulfate as the core precursor raw material, there is still a demand gap in the future, which will provide solid support for nickel prices in the medium and long term.
Outlook for the future: Short term pressure fluctuations, medium to long term elasticity still exists
Nickel prices are still suppressed by high inventory and weak spot prices in the short term, with limited upward space, and are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. However, the market should not be overly pessimistic. Once the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates, the improvement of global liquidity is expected to boost the overall sentiment of the metal sector; The sustained high growth of the new energy industry provides structural support for nickel consumption; If the traditional “Golden September and Silver October” consumption peak season is realized, the recovery of stainless steel production may drive a temporary rebound in nickel demand.
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