Alexander Djukov, chairman of Russia’s 3rd largest oil company, Gazprom Neft, said in Moscow on the 17th that OPEC and its partners should start increasing oil production to maintain adequate market supply and reasonable prices. The statement echoes Moscow’s reluctance to agree to extend Saudi Arabia’s earlier cuts.

Mr. Djukov said the price range of $55 to $65 a barrel was “acceptable” for Russian oil producers, adding that once the cuts were lifted, Russian gas oil would be able to rapidly increase production.

Russia is more satisfied with lower oil prices than Saudi Arabia. They also endorsed the comments made by the head of the Russian oil company, Sheikin. Shetchen said the cut affected Russian companies’market share and was good for American producers.

“Would it make sense for Russia to reduce oil production if the United States immediately seized our market share? We have to defend our market share,” Schechin said. The executive went on to say that if the cuts expand, Russian oil companies will ask the Russian government for compensation.

“With the next OPEC meeting approaching in early July, we may hear more similar remarks,” he said. Russian oil producers have never really agreed to cut production, but the large-scale pollution of the Druzhba oil pipeline to Europe forced Russian oil producers to cut production and reduce production to within the OPEC quota.

In a letter Tuesday, the chairman of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said that OPEC and its allies, led by Russia, would face the problem of planning crude oil exports if they could not determine the date for an emergency meeting, according to the Wall Street Journal’s Chinese website.

According to the report, in a document circulated within OPEC, Manuel Quevedo, Chairman-in-Office of OPEC and Minister of Petroleum of Venezuela, said that there was an urgent need for OPEC to hold a meeting to decide on plans for at least the second half of this year.

The current 1.2 million barrels per day cut-off agreement expires on July 1, and next month’s crude oil export quota has been set, Kweido said. Kwedo suggested that the meeting be held on July 1-2, while Iran and Russia proposed that the meeting be held on July 10-12, which was postponed from June 25-26 at the request of Russia.

According to the Shanghai Securities News, in order to balance the supply and demand of crude oil market, OPEC+ (OPEC and its production reduction alliance) reached an agreement last year to reduce production from January 1 this year to avoid oversupply. Under the agreement, they cut production by 1.2 million barrels a day for six months, based on October output last year. Now, the cut-off agreement is about to expire. The OPEC Conference, originally scheduled for the end of June this year, will decide whether or not to continue to implement the reduction agreement and how much reduction will be made.

According to the report, Emirates Minister of Energy Mazrui said last week at the International Economic Forum of the Americas that, in view of existing oil stockpiles, the cut-off agreement should continue to be maintained or “extended at least until the end of the year”. He said that “the right decision is to postpone” and expressed his support for “OPEC+” action to continue to reduce production.

According to Dow Jones, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday that the global economic cooling may mean a slowdown in oil demand growth in 2019, even if oil producers maintain adequate supplies.

In its highly watched oil market report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth for the second month in a row, from 1.3 million barrels a day last month to 1.2 million barrels.

The IEA said that after struggling to cope with supply concerns in recent months, the main focus of the oil market was oil demand, as the economy was weak, on the grounds that global trade growth had reached its lowest level in 10 years, as well as the warm winter in Japan and the weakness of the petrochemical industry in Europe.

This is the third major oil market report this week that is more pessimistic about oil demand. Earlier, the US Energy Intelligence Agency (EIA) released pessimistic demand data on Tuesday and OPEC expressed the same pessimism on Thursday.

Although demand growth is slowing, meeting expected demand growth is unlikely to be a problem, the IEA said, noting that the United States will contribute 90% to the 1.9 million barrels per day supply growth in non-OPEC countries.

The agency said that, combined with uncertainties in demand, when it meets in Vienna later this month to discuss extending the cut-off period, OPEC members and their allies will consider “sustained supply growth from competitors”.

OPEC and its allies cut production at the end of 2018. Previously, concerns about global economic growth led to a fall in oil prices.

Many Saudi officials have said that the country wants to extend the cut to the second half of 2019. The IEA report showed that Saudi Arabia’s implementation rate of output reduction in May was 290%, as the country reduced its daily production by 110,000 barrels. This led to OPEC’s lowest supply since 2014.

However, OPEC’s compliance was inconsistent, with Iraq increasing its oil supply by 130,000 barrels in May.

Analysts said the extension of production cuts largely depends on Russia, and senior oil industry figures expressed concern that market share was taken away by the United States. Russia’s production fell by 120,000 barrels on May, but the IEA attributed this to the suspension of production after the pollution of the Druzba pipeline.

The IEA said that, in addition to other planned disruptions and maintenance activities, the disruption of this critical pipeline led to the lowest start-up of global refineries in two years.

Although global oil investors will continue to focus on demand and global economic growth, the supply risks that dominated the market earlier this year have not dissipated.

Saudi energy minister Khalid Fallich said Sunday that OPEC might hold a meeting in Vienna in the first week of July and hoped that the meeting would reach a consensus on extending the cut-off agreement, Reuters reported.

Fallich said earlier this month that OPEC was close to agreeing to extend the agreement beyond June, but still needed more negotiations with non-OPEC countries involved in the production agreement.

OPEC and Russia and other oil producers (OPEC+) have reached an agreement to reduce production by 1.2 million barrels per day from January 1. The agreement will end this month, and the organization will meet in the coming weeks to decide what to do next.

Fallich told reporters during the G20 Ministerial Conference on Energy and Environment held in Koizawa, northwest Tokyo: “We hope to reach a consensus on the extension agreement when we meet in Vienna in two weeks’time.”

Asked when the meeting would be held, he said, “Probably the first week of July.”

On June 17, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 54.83, down 0.64 points from yesterday, down 54.36% from the peak of 120.13 points in the cycle (2012-02-28), and up 13.24% from the low of 48.42 points on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has declined slightly, the market of phthalic anhydride in eastern China has maintained a weak position, downstream factories have maintained just-in-demand purchasing, factory inventory pressure has continued, high-end transactions have been hindered, the mainstream of on-site neighbouring source negotiations is 5600-5700 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiations is 5200-5300 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 5600-5700 yuan/ton, which The price of phthalic anhydride in China is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, the market is not good, and the price of phthalic anhydride is declining.

Recently, the execution price of the upstream product of phthalic anhydride, Sinopec o-phthalic anhydride, is 5900 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price in the market is 5900 yuan/ton. The quotation is declining, and the port’s market is general. The price of raw materials mixed xylene in upstream is lower, the turnover of phthalic anhydride is general, the stock of phthalic anhydride in port is low, the quotation of phthalic outer plate is lower, the cost of imported phthalic anhydride is oscillating, the actual transaction price is detailed, the price trend in upstream is declining, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is declining. DOP downstream price is lower, DOP downstream demand is general, customer procurement enthusiasm is not good, DOP market mainstream transaction price is about 7000 yuan/ton, DOP downstream price is still under pressure, downstream price is slightly lower, demand for upstream phthalic anhydride is limited, phthalic anhydride market price is slightly lower, it is expected that the later market price of phthalic anhydride will be about 5600 yuan/ton.

On June 17, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.59% lower than the peak of 118.42 points in the cycle (2019-01-15), and 33.79% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 points on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant shuts down more, domestic ammonium nitrate plant starts less, but with the warming of the weather recently, the influence of northern air limitation disappears. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles, and the price trend in the field declines. As of the 17th day, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiation in 1900-2050 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas are forced to limit production or stop production and maintenance for environmental protection inspection, the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is temporarily stable.

Recently, the domestic price of nitric acid has been temporarily stable, with the market price of 1760 yuan/ton as of the 17th day. The rising trend of nitric acid price has a positive impact on the market of ammonium nitrate. The price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. The price trend of liquid ammonia in the upstream raw material has slightly declined. As of the 17th day, the price of manufacturer in the northern region has been maintained in the range of 3000-3400 yuan/ton, while that in the northwest region is around 290-3000 yuan/ton The declining price trend of cruise raw materials has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market is shaking at a low level because of the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to remain low in the latter part of the shocks.

On June 17, the PX commodity index was 58.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 42.97% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 28.21% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 17th. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation, Fuhai Created Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant put into operation, and other units operated steadily temporarily. Due to the normal supply of p-xylene in the domestic market when the new unit was put into operation, p-dimethyl benzene was supplied normally. The price trend of toluene market is stable for the time being. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On June 14, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia declined by 13 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 799-801 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 818-820 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is temporary stable.

On June 14, the price of WTI crude oil in July rose to 52.51 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.23 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil in August rose to 62.01 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.70 U.S. dollars. Crude oil price trend rose, which has a cost supporting role for the price of downstream petrochemical products. The price trend of paraxylene market is temporarily stable. Recently, the textile industry has been stabilizing, PTA price has been stabilizing for 17 days. The average price in East China is raised near 5450-5600 yuan/ton. As of 14 days, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 88%, the polyester industry start-up rate is about 87.5%, and the downstream production and sales rate remains high. However, PTA market price shocks, and PX market price is expected to be low in the later period.

I. Trend analysis

Nickel prices have risen sharply this week, according to business associations. At the beginning of the week, the price of nickel was 97308.33 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, the price of nickel rose to 10366.67 yuan/ton, a sharp increase of 3.14%.

II. Market Trend Analysis

This week, nickel prices rose sharply, mainly due to heavy rains in Indonesia, causing supply concerns, detonating nickel prices, but the overall nickel fundamentals are weak. On the supply side, the May data show that the domestic production of medium and high nickel iron is 432,000 tons, an increase of 40% over the same period last year. Then in June, the production of medium and high nickel iron is expected to reach 44,000 tons, an increase of 56.9% over the same period last year. On the demand side, stainless steel stocks in the downstream are high and demand is weak.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Nickel analysts at the non-ferrous branch of the business association believe that the recent floods in Nepal have damaged some mining equipment, while local debt relaxation stimulates infrastructure construction, double-edged to push up nickel prices, while refining nickel plate inventory is low, but the demand for stainless steel downstream is weak, and nickel price shocks are expected to be strong.

According to an article published on the website of the Wall Street Journal on June 11, through a joint venture between Cosco Shipping Holdings Ltd., China’s largest ocean transportation company, and Hyundai Merchant Shipping, a Russian shipping giant, China is moving into the Arctic shipping sector in order to transport natural gas from Siberia to the western and Asian markets.

The article introduces that these companies will use more than a dozen icebreakers to transport LNG from Yamal LNG project in Russia to Nordic Europe, Japan, South Korea and China along the northern coast of Siberia. According to British Ship Price Assessment Corporation, COSCO Maritime Liquefied Natural Gas Investment Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of COSCO, will operate nine more similar icebreakers. A year ago, Beijing released its first white paper on Arctic policy. According to the white paper, China encourages enterprises to participate in the construction of Arctic waterway infrastructure, conduct commercial trial voyages according to law, and jointly build the “Silk Road on Ice” with all parties.

The article says that China hopes that the Arctic route will become part of the “one belt” initiative, which aims to connect Asia and Europe through ocean, rail and road networks. In 2013, China became an official observer of the Arctic Council. The Arctic Council is an intergovernmental forum composed of the United States, Canada, Russia, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Iceland. It mainly discusses the development issues and navigation rights arising from the melting of Arctic ice.

According to the article, the United States, Russia, Canada, Denmark and Norway all claim the right to use the Arctic waterway, while China regards investing in the Arctic as a top priority to promote its energy and shipping development.

As China moves from coal to cleaner fuels, it is expected to overtake Japan as the world’s largest importer of liquefied natural gas this year.

The article quotes a Chinese shipping executive as saying: “We hope to get about 4 million tons of LNG a year from the Yamal project. We also hope to transport containers via Arctic routes, because warming temperatures melt the ice and make navigation easier.

At the same time that China and Russia reached an agreement, Russian officials announced that Sergei Frank, chief executive of Russian Modern Merchant Shipping Company, would be the head of a new Arctic Route Committee. He said that the transportation and logistics of the project will be integrated into a platform to optimize shipping, port berthing and inland transportation of liquefied natural gas.

Frank also said that the volume of cargo transported through the Arctic route was “increasing in geometric progression”, and that more containers and ordinary cargo ships would travel between Asia and Europe through the Arctic route in the future to save time compared with traditional routes via the Suez Canal.

I. The price trend of epichlorohydrin:

According to the data from the business associations’list, as of June 13, epichlorohydrin was 14100.00 yuan/ton (including taxes), up 1.44% compared with last week’s 6th. Today, the mainstream price of epichlorohydrin in China is 13500-15000 yuan/ton.

II. Market analysis:

Products: Epichlorohydrin market is rising. At present, the spot supply is tight, the manufacturers have no pressure to deliver, and the focus of negotiation is close to the high-end. Some downstream just need replenishment.

Industry chain: Upstream propylene supply is tight, supplier inventory is low, but affected by the decline in crude oil, the market has entered a wait-and-see stage, price stability is dominant. Downstream epoxy resin, manufacturers shipment pressure is not reduced, follow-up orders are limited.

3. Future market forecast:

According to business associations, the domestic epichlorohydrin market will be dominated by high-level finishing in the short term.