Price trends:

According to the data of business associations, the trend of domestic PA6 market was temporarily stable in the third week of August. Traders’mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 for Sino-Viscose was about 13933.33 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as that at the beginning of the week.

2. Analysis of influencing factors:

Since August, the caprolactam liquid market has been steadily declining. This week, the turnover of caprolactam liquid sources in East China has declined. The upstream product cyclohexanone market is weak, the cost support is weakened; the downstream slice Market is light, the polymerization plant is losing some money, the enthusiasm of raw material procurement is not high, the caprolactam is dragged down by demand, and the price is lower. At present, more than 70% of caprolactam plants have been started, and the spot market supply has improved. At present, the profit is limited, spot delivery is weak, the future market may continue to be weak and stable, rigid adjustment; the weakening of caprolactam on PA6 cost support is limited, this week the domestic PA6 market trend is stable. Spot supply is more adequate, downstream demand follow-up improvement is limited, maintain just needed procurement. The news of the postponement of the US-China tariff policy is positive, and the confidence of domestic traders has improved, but the high-price single transaction is still difficult, and both sides of the trade are cautious.

3. Future market forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in the third week of August PA6 upstream caprolactam steadily declined, weakly stable adjustment. The cost-side support for PA6 is weakened. The trade frictions between China and the United States released a mitigation signal to boost business confidence, but the downstream demand of PA6 has limited follow-up improvement, and trading is flat. The price of domestic PA6 market is stable for the time being, and it is expected that PA6 will be sorted out in a small way in the near future.

1. Commodity Name: Magnesium Ingot (9990)

2. Latest Price (2019.8.14): 15,750 yuan/ton

Magnesium ingots (99.9%, non-pickling, simple packaging) from the main producing areas in China are charged with cash tax as follows:

Fugu area ex-factory includes 15700-15800 yuan/ton of tax, Taiyuan area 15800-15950 yuan/ton of cash, Wenxi area 15900-16100 yuan/ton of cash and Ningxia area 15700-15850 yuan/ton of cash.

3. Analysis Points: Recently, the price of magnesium ingot has increased slightly. It is reported that most factories have fewer spot sources and less inventory pressure, which is the driving force to boost market prices. On the one hand, based on the release of orders in the previous export backlog, the demand has improved slightly, on the other hand, the supply side is now in the off-season of production, hot weather and plant equipment maintenance practices, it is expected that factory output will decline, the overall inventory of the factory is not large, and the willingness of the factory to bid is still in place.

4. Future market forecast: This week, the market turnover is good, pre-sale orders have been signed from time to time. It is expected that the price of magnesium ingots will be stable and strong in the near future. Later, it will focus on the actual market transactions and maintenance of magnesium plants.

On August 14, the PX Commodity Index was 56.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.31% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 22.94% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 14th. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of the operation. Fuhai Created Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started a line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant went into operation. Other units operated steadily temporarily because of the introduction of new units. Domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. The closing price of p-xylene in Asia rose by 3 US dollars/ton on August 13. The closing price is 774-776 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 793-795 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The rise of foreign prices has a positive impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is stable for the time being.

On August 13, the price of WTI crude oil futures rose to $57.10 per barrel, an increase of $2.17. Brent crude oil futures rose to $61.30 per barrel, an increase of $2.73. The rising trend of crude oil prices has provided some favorable support for downstream petrochemical products, while the price of p-xylene market has temporarily stabilized. Recent textile industry market shocks, PTA price trend shocks 14 days, the average price in East China is around 5200-5300 yuan/ton, as of 13 days domestic PTA start-up rate is about 92.5%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 85%, downstream production and sales rate has not changed much, but PTA market price trend shocks, expected later PX market price or The shock will be maintained.

On August 14, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 103.72, which was the same as yesterday. It was 26.14% lower than the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and 93.54% higher than the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market was temporarily stable on August 14. Up to now, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 11 430 yuan/ton, and the domestic start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid was less than 60%. Enterprises reflected that the supply of hydrofluoric acid on the spot was sufficient at present, and the recent market situation was general. Recently, due to the poor demand downstream, some hydrofluoric acid was in short supply. Manufacturers cut prices slightly, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid fell. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 10500-11000 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is between 11000-11500 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market price declined, spot supply is normal, but the demand situation is poor, hydrofluoric acid market price trend is temporarily stable.

Recent downstream refrigerant products start at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is poor, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid products price shocks. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, the production enterprise device is stable, but the pressure of goods is too high, inventory expansion appears to a certain extent, the enterprise aims to make profits to deliver goods. The downstream weakness continues, the peak season of refrigerants has passed, and demand has only decreased but not increased. The price of domestic large enterprises has maintained the level of 17,000-18,000 yuan/ton. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. However, the price of on-site transactions does not change much. Businessmen purchase on demand. At the end of the peak season, the downstream demand of terminals decreases but does not increase. The downstream demand is not good, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is low. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods and poor downstream demand, the market price of hydrofluoric acid has declined.

Refrigerant field turnover is poor, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate remains low, for upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is limited, hydrofluoric acid spot supply is normal, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may be slightly lower.

On August 13, the rare earth index was 371 points, down 2 points from yesterday, down 62.90% from the cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 36.90% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

The average price of Neodymium in rare earth metals is 387,500 yuan per ton, dysprosium metal is 2.3 million yuan per ton, and the average price of praseodymium metal is down 5,000 yuan per ton to 695,000 yuan per ton. The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in rare earth oxides is 307,500 yuan per ton; dysprosium oxide is 1.95 million yuan per ton; the average price of praseodymium oxide is 7,500 yuan per ton to 3.825 million yuan per ton; and the average price of neodymium oxide is 3.095 million yuan per ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys is 387,500 yuan per ton, and the average price of dysprosium and iron alloys is 1.94 million yuan per ton.

Recently, the prices of some products in the rare earth market have fallen, the domestic rare earth market is in general, and the prices of some commodities in the rare earth market are temporarily stable. However, in the near future, the prices of some products in the rare earth market have been slightly lower, dysprosium metals have been warming up, praseodymium and neodymium series products have recently fallen back, the supply in the market is normal, and the prices of light rare earths have slightly fallen in the near future. Slippery. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to environmental protection supervision in the whole country. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazard of some products, which makes environmental protection supervision stricter. Under stringent environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a general market input of rare earth oxides, especially some mainstream rare earth oxides, with normal supply and stable price trend in the rare earth market. Recently, large enterprise groups in the field are reluctant to sell. The market of rare earth oxides is general, but for products. Pricing major manufacturers are also cautious.

Recently, the State Environmental Protection Department has made no reduction in its stringent efforts, which has a greater impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a low start-up and a cold market. At the recent press conference on macroeconomic operation held by the Development and Reform Commission, Meng Wei, spokesman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), answering reporters’questions on rare earth, said that on the basis of in-depth investigation and scientific demonstration, relevant policies and measures would be put forward to give full play to the special value of rare earth as a strategic resource. Due to the increasingly obvious regulatory effect, the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, the demand in the downstream is normal, and the trading market of the rare earth industry has not changed much.

Rare earth analysts of business associations expect that the domestic environmental protection will not be reduced in the near future, coupled with the domestic reorganization of the order of the rare earth industry, Myanmar’s export restrictions and normal supply, but the recent rare earth market trading situation is general, and the price of the rare earth market is expected to remain mainly volatile.

According to the survey data of business associations, the average market price in East China is about 1676.67 yuan per ton. The light soda commodity index on August 13 was 85.98, which was the same as yesterday. It was 27.05% lower than the peak of 117.86 points in the cycle (2017-11-21), and 36.15% higher than the low of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

Domestic soda market is mainly stable, the market is not warm. At present, the mainstream factory price of light alkali in China is 1500-1680 yuan/ton, and the terminal price of heavy alkali is 1700-1800 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price can be further discussed. The domestic soda market operates in a narrow range and is relatively stable as a whole. Heavy caustic soda market consolidation is the main, manufacturers shipment situation is still acceptable.

Soda analysts believe that the recent start-up load of soda manufacturers has been maintained at about 80%, and the overall supply of goods is sufficient. Downstream demand is sluggish, more cautious wait-and-see market-oriented. Affected by the typhoon, the enterprise load has been slightly reduced, the start of construction has been slightly inadequate, and the demand side has not improved significantly. In the short term, how narrow the soda market is to be sorted out and operated, specifically looking at the downstream market demand.

A Glimpse of Price Trend of Aluminum Ingot

Aluminum prices bottomed out in 2018, hovering at year-round lows, with a range of 13,450-15,000 yuan/ton. In the first nine months, the price of aluminium was running in a “W” trend, and in the fourth quarter, the price of aluminium dropped significantly.

In the first half of 2019, the price of aluminium was generally inverted “V” operation. The low oscillation in January lasted until before and after the Spring Festival. After the first ten days of February, the price of aluminium ingots began to rise. After a slight decline in late March, the price of aluminium ingots continued to rise in mid-April, breaking through the 14000, 14100, 14200 and 14300 levels continuously. At the end of May, the price of aluminium ingots reached its peak in the year and fell in June. On July 3, the price of aluminium stopped falling and rose, opening up the mode of shock and attack.

According to the data of business associations, the average price of aluminium (99.70) market as of August 13 was 14260 yuan/ton, up 5.84% compared with the average price of 13473.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year (January 1); the trough value of 13223.33 yuan/ton (January 15), up 7.84%; the peak value of 14383.33 yuan/ton (May 15) fell 0.72%; and from the beginning of 2019 to the beginning of 2019. The current interval amplitude is 8.61%.

Aluminum ingot prices jumped 2% this week.

Aluminum ingots, with an annual amplitude of only 8.61%, have risen by 2% this week. According to data from business associations, the average market price of aluminium (99.70) on August 13 was 14,260 yuan/ton, up 2.20% from the average market price of 13,953.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week (10 August); it is reported that the market price of aluminium ingots began to rise in the afternoon of 12 August, with a daily increase of 2.08% as of the afternoon of 13 August.

Expected Enhancement of Price Bottom of Alumina Raw Material

1. China’s domestic bauxite consumption declined in July

According to relevant data, China’s domestic bauxite consumption in July was about 7.07 million tons, a decrease of about 3.0% annually, and a decrease of about 12.2% year on year. From January to July 2019, China’s domestic bauxite consumption totaled about 54.2 million tons, a decrease of about 5.0% over the same period last year.

The data show that the consumption of domestic bauxite in Shanxi in July is about 3.27 million tons, which is about 2.7% lower than that in the previous year; the consumption of domestic bauxite in Henan is about 1.38 million tons, which is flat; the consumption in Guangxi is about 1.23 million tons, which is about 3.2% lower than that in the previous year; and the consumption in Guizhou is about 830,000 tons, which is about 3.5% lower than that in the previous year.

2. Increased reduction in alumina production in July

Affected by the persistent decline of alumina price in the early stage, the loss of alumina enterprises in northern China intensified in July, and the reduction of production of alumina enterprises in Shanxi and Henan increased. It is reported that the production line of Xing’an Chemical Alumina in Xiaoyi, Shanxi Province has been repaired since July 20, involving a capacity of 1 million tons per year for about 30 days; Huaxing Aluminum Industry in Shanxi Province has reduced its roasting capacity by 300,000 tons per year; and Sino-Aluminum Mining Industry has reduced its roasting capacity by 200,000 tons per year due to environmental problems. It is estimated that the total affected capacity will be about 1.5 million tons per year. In addition, during the 2nd National Youth Games in Xiaoyi City (August 8 – August 20), Xiaoyi related enterprises organized staggered peak production, and alumina enterprises are expected to limit production by 50%. Recently, the domestic market is expected to strengthen the bottom of alumina prices.

Smooth operation of downstream aluminium export for half a year

1. A Survey of Export Data of Aluminum Materials

According to customs statistics, China exported 487,000 tons of unwrought rolled aluminium and aluminium materials in July and 3.47 million tons in January-July, an increase of 7.4% compared with 3.23 million tons in the same period last year.

2. Domestic aluminium production (semi-annual data) declined year on year

According to Statistics Bureau data, in June 2019, China’s aluminium output was 4.333 million tons, down 3.0% from the same period last year; in January-June this year, China’s aluminium output was 23.373 million tons, down 0.5% from the same period last year.

A Glimpse of Price Trend of Aluminum Ingot

Aluminum prices bottomed out in 2018, hovering at year-round lows, with a range of 13,450-15,000 yuan/ton. In the first nine months, the price of aluminium was running in a “W” trend, and in the fourth quarter, the price of aluminium dropped significantly.

In the first half of 2019, the price of aluminium was generally inverted “V” operation. The low oscillation in January lasted until before and after the Spring Festival. After the first ten days of February, the price of aluminium ingots began to rise. After a slight decline in late March, the price of aluminium ingots continued to rise in mid-April, breaking through the 14000, 14100, 14200 and 14300 levels continuously. At the end of May, the price of aluminium ingots reached its peak in the year and fell in June. On July 3, the price of aluminium stopped falling and rose, opening up the mode of shock and attack.

According to the data of business associations, the average price of aluminium (99.70) market as of August 13 was 14260 yuan/ton, up 5.84% compared with the average price of 13473.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year (January 1); the trough value of 13223.33 yuan/ton (January 15), up 7.84%; the peak value of 14383.33 yuan/ton (May 15) fell 0.72%; and from the beginning of 2019 to the beginning of 2019. The current interval amplitude is 8.61%.

Aluminum ingot prices jumped 2% this week.

Aluminum ingots, with an annual amplitude of only 8.61%, have risen by 2% this week. According to data from business associations, the average market price of aluminium (99.70) on August 13 was 14,260 yuan/ton, up 2.20% from the average market price of 13,953.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week (10 August); it is reported that the market price of aluminium ingots began to rise in the afternoon of 12 August, with a daily increase of 2.08% as of the afternoon of 13 August.

Expected Enhancement of Price Bottom of Alumina Raw Material

1. China’s domestic bauxite consumption declined in July

According to relevant data, China’s domestic bauxite consumption in July was about 7.07 million tons, a decrease of about 3.0% annually, and a decrease of about 12.2% year on year. From January to July 2019, China’s domestic bauxite consumption totaled about 54.2 million tons, a decrease of about 5.0% over the same period last year.

The data show that the consumption of domestic bauxite in Shanxi in July is about 3.27 million tons, which is about 2.7% lower than that in the previous year; the consumption of domestic bauxite in Henan is about 1.38 million tons, which is flat; the consumption in Guangxi is about 1.23 million tons, which is about 3.2% lower than that in the previous year; and the consumption in Guizhou is about 830,000 tons, which is about 3.5% lower than that in the previous year.

2. Increased reduction in alumina production in July

Affected by the persistent decline of alumina price in the early stage, the loss of alumina enterprises in northern China intensified in July, and the reduction of production of alumina enterprises in Shanxi and Henan increased. It is reported that the production line of Xing’an Chemical Alumina in Xiaoyi, Shanxi Province has been repaired since July 20, involving a capacity of 1 million tons per year for about 30 days; Huaxing Aluminum Industry in Shanxi Province has reduced its roasting capacity by 300,000 tons per year; and Sino-Aluminum Mining Industry has reduced its roasting capacity by 200,000 tons per year due to environmental problems. It is estimated that the total affected capacity will be about 1.5 million tons per year. In addition, during the 2nd National Youth Games in Xiaoyi City (August 8 – August 20), Xiaoyi related enterprises organized staggered peak production, and alumina enterprises are expected to limit production by 50%. Recently, the domestic market is expected to strengthen the bottom of alumina prices.

Smooth operation of downstream aluminium export for half a year

1. A Survey of Export Data of Aluminum Materials

According to customs statistics, China exported 487,000 tons of unwrought rolled aluminium and aluminium materials in July and 3.47 million tons in January-July, an increase of 7.4% compared with 3.23 million tons in the same period last year.

2. Domestic aluminium production (semi-annual data) declined year on year

According to Statistics Bureau data, in June 2019, China’s aluminium output was 4.333 million tons, down 3.0% from the same period last year; in January-June this year, China’s aluminium output was 23.373 million tons, down 0.5% from the same period last year.

On August 12, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 57.42, unchanged from yesterday, down 52.20% from the cyclical peak of 120.13 points (2012-02-28), and up 18.59% from the lowest point of 48.42 on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recent domestic market price fluctuation of phthalic anhydride, price fluctuation of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride in eastern China, downstream factories maintaining just in need of purchase, factory inventory pressure, high-end transaction hindered, the mainstream of on-site neighbouring source negotiations is 5700-5900 yuan/ton, the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiations is 5300-5400 yuan/ton; the mainstream of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 5300-5400 yuan/ton. The quotation ranges from 5700 to 5800 yuan/ton, the market price remains volatile, the quotation of enterprises is temporarily stable, the downstream construction is not high, the procurement is on demand, the wait-and-see mentality is strong, the domestic phthalic anhydride plant is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride is mainly volatile.

In the near future, the domestic price of phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec o-phthalic acid is 6000 yuan/ton. The import market of phthalic anhydride in the port area has fallen, the quotation is stable, the recent market of phthalic anhydride in the port is general, the port stock is low, the quotation of o-phthalic anhydride outside market has fallen concussively, the actual transaction price is based on negotiation, the factual details are discussed in detail, Market prices remain low and volatile. Downstream DOP raw material phthalic anhydride price is temporarily stable, isooctanol price is stable, DOP cost trend is stable. DOP prices remain stable temporarily, DOP downstream demand is general, customer purchasing enthusiasm is general, downstream PVC market shocks rise, DOP market mainstream transaction price is about 7400 yuan/ton, downstream price shocks low, it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will maintain the trend of shocks in the later period.

The fluorite price fluctuation is clearly seen from the fluorite price trend chart. According to statistics, the average domestic fluorite price is 3106.25 yuan/ton as of August 12. Since the end of July, the domestic fluorite price trend has declined. According to statistics, the recent domestic price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2800-3100 yuan/ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 290. The price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2900-3200 yuan/ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2900-3300 yuan/ton.

Recent fluctuations in domestic fluorite prices. Firstly, the national environmental protection inspection, fluorite start-up rate is general. In 2019, domestic mines and flotation plants were partially shut down, which made the spot supply of fluorite normal. Some of the holders still have a strong price intention. Domestic fluorite price quotations have not changed much, but the actual turnover in the field is somewhat higher than before. Slide downward. Secondly, the refrigerant industry has been depressed recently. For the upstream demand is poor, the price of fluorite can not support the decline. The price of hydrofluoric acid and refrigerant in the downstream has been lower recently, which has a negative impact on the domestic fluorite market, and the domestic price of fluorite has been lower. In the near future, the hydrofluoric acid Market and refrigerant industry have no obvious positive support, and fluorite prices are expected to continue to decline slightly in the later period.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid has a downward trend.

The average price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market was 11 430 yuan/ton on the 12th day. Recently, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market has been slightly lower. The mainstream of domestic negotiations on hydrofluoric acid in Fujian is 10 500-11 500 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Shandong is 10 500-11 500 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Jiangxi is 11 000-11 500 yuan/ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in Inner Mongolia is 10 500-11 500 yuan/ton. Negotiations in the 10 500-11 000 yuan/ton or so, hydrofluoric acid market supply is sufficient, market prices slightly lower.

In recent years, the domestic hydrofluoric acid start-up rate is more than 60%. Enterprises reflect that there is sufficient supply of hydrofluoric acid spot supply in the field. In recent years, the situation of on-site purchases is general. In recent years, due to poor downstream demand, some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers’prices have slightly declined. Recent downstream refrigerant products start at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is poor, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid products price shocks. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, the production enterprise device is stable, but the pressure of goods is too high, inventory expansion appears to a certain extent, the enterprise aims to make profits to deliver goods. The downstream weakness continues, the peak season of refrigerants has passed, and demand has only decreased but not increased. The price of domestic large enterprises has maintained the level of 17,000-18,000 yuan/ton. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. However, the price of on-site transactions does not change much. Businessmen purchase on demand. At the end of the peak season, the downstream demand of terminals decreases but does not increase. The downstream demand is not good, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is low. Recently, due to the common negative effect of fluorite and refrigerant industry, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is expected to continue to decline in the later period.

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by business associations, the spot price of nickel on August 12 was 122,833.33 yuan/ton, which was 2.71% lower than 126,250 yuan/ton on the previous trading day, 37.23% higher than the beginning of the year and 20.53% higher than the previous year.

Prior to that, nickel prices surged by more than 40 points on the basis of multiple bullishness.

Since this year, nickel prices have been in a good trend. In addition to a slight drop in March-June, nickel prices have soared to a new high of 126,250 yuan/ton at the end of June, up 41.05% from the lowest point at the beginning of the year, which is equivalent to the historical price level of 14 or 15 years. Nickel prices soared, mainly due to Indonesia’s possible ban on nickel exports in 2020, speculation about the second mining review in the Philippines, the impact of the Indonesian earthquake on town exports, and the release of ferronickel production capacity was not as good as expected.

Indonesian mining ban speculation suspended Shanghai nickel plunged by more than 5%.

After nickel prices hit a year high on Friday (9), it was reported that Indonesian President stressed that there are still many infrastructure projects in the country lacking foreign exchange input as construction funds, and no further discussion on the date of advance ban. Bambang Gatot Ariyono, Director-General of the Indonesian Mining Authority, said the industry would follow existing rules and that the market would ignore rumors as long as no new rules were introduced. Rumors of Indonesia’s early ban on mining, which has been hyped for many days, have temporarily come to an end, and nickel prices have fallen back.

According to the current nickel futures table of business associations, nickel spot price is higher than the main contract price in the near future. The main contract price is the price of nickel in the next two months. Before that, both spot nickel price is higher than the main contract price. Today, there is a turning point between the two, which shows that people are feeling better about the future nickel price.

There is no need to be overly pessimistic about supply-side tightening

Although the price of nickel had risen sharply before, which was disturbed by the supply side and the stock was low, a large part of it was due to market debates, capital speculation and hot nickel price speculation. So once the market rumors, Indonesia should ban mining ahead of time, regardless of the truth, nickel prices continue to rise and fall. Now, as soon as I heard that Indonesia’s early ban on mining proved untrue, market panic and selling psychology caused the price of nickel to fall sharply. But in the long run, the tight supply of nickel ore still exists. The depletion of nickel ore resources is an objective fact. Even if Indonesia does not ban mining in advance for a short time, who is not sure that this wave of operations will come again, even if it does not ban mining now, it will be banned by 2022, in terms of Indonesia’s virtue of changing day by day. The second round of review of mines in the Philippines is also ongoing, which will more or less affect the supply of nickel prices. So the tight supply of nickel ore is a long-term situation, which supports the price of nickel.

Reasonable high drop nickel price short-term high shock

Liu Meimei, an analyst with business associations, believes that nickel prices fell sharply on Monday (12th). Spot nickel prices have soared by more than 40% before, with no 100-day bonus and no 100-day rise in prices. The high drop is also a rational demand. Whether Indonesia bans mines in advance, true or false, more hype is a mood, bans will not be banned now, has little impact on the current fundamentals. Previously, the corresponding price of low inventory is within a reasonable range. Now it is still the off-season in August. The demand is limited and can not be supported by demand. Nickel price is difficult to rise in place step by step. The current pattern of high-level shocks is influenced by the news and macro-level. High nickel prices are expected to remain in the peak season of September and October. Nickel prices may rise to a new height with rising demand and the closure of production in October of the highest-grade nickel mines in the Philippines.