According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of July 3, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 6000 yuan / ton, which was 100 yuan / ton higher or 1.69% higher than that on Monday (June 29). On July 3, the commodity index of n-butanol (industrial grade) was 48.91, unchanged from yesterday, down 51.09% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-10-08), and up 63.63% from the lowest point of 29.89 on November 30, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Supply reduction supports stable start of n-butanol in July

In July, the overall high and stable domestic n-butanol market, some areas continue to improve the transaction center. Since Monday, affected by the shutdown of some large factories for maintenance and conversion to octanol, the supply of n-butanol was reduced, the manufacturers’ inventory was low, and the market quotation was generally rising. The main downstream butyl ester factories started to operate stably, and just needed replenishment supported the market demand, and the market trading atmosphere was good. On Tuesday and Wednesday, affected by the upstream propylene market, the cost support increased, and the n-butanol market continued to rise. On Thursday, some early profit margins gradually digested, and prices in North and East China remained stable, and the price of n-butanol in some factories in South China continued to rise by about 100 yuan / ton. At present, the pressure on the supply side of n-butanol market is small, and the manufacturers’ offer is firm. As of July 3, the reference price of domestic n-butanol ex factory is at 6000 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton higher than that on Monday (June 29), or 1.69%. The ex factory quotation of n-butanol of Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. was RMB 6000 / T, up 150 yuan / T or 2.56% compared with last weekend (28th). Shandong lihuayi n-butanol factory quotation reference 6000 yuan / ton, increased by 250 yuan / ton, or 4.34%, compared with last weekend (28th). The ex factory quotation of n-butanol in North China of Wanhua Chemical Co., Ltd. was RMB 6000 / T, up 200 yuan / T or 3.44% compared with last weekend (28th).

Prices of n-butanol in some regions of China this week (data for reference only, unit: yuan / ton)

Price range of product name: 6 / 29 / 7 / 3

N-butanol in East China 5950-6050 6150-6250 + 200 / + 200

South China 6000-6100 6250-6350 + 250 / + 250

North China 5750-5850 5950-6050 + 200 / + 200

Northeast China 5750-5850 5950-6050 + 200 / + 200

Upstream, Shandong propylene market recovered this week, the overall upward market offer to support the cost of n-butanol. After the Dragon Boat Festival, on June 27, the market price of propylene began to rise. Until this Tuesday, the market had risen by 250 yuan / ton. Now the market transaction is between 6750 yuan / ton and 7050 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6850 yuan / ton. At present, the pressure of propylene manufacturers is small, and there are many sets of devices to transmit maintenance information.

On the downstream side, affected by the rise of n-butanol market and cost support, the market of butyl acrylate rose steadily and slightly this week. At present, the mainstream quotation in the market is 7750-7850 yuan / T accessories. Downstream suppliers need to purchase, and the market transaction is OK.

According to the n-butanol analysts of the business club, it is reported that the overhaul of n-butanol units in July continues to increase, the factory inventory remains low, the supply side is reduced, which gives market confidence, and the downstream replenishment is stable. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic n-butanol market will have any upward space in the future.

Since the beginning of June, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber (BR) ended its downward trend in May and started the upward Road, and its price went up sharply. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber was 7630 yuan / ton at the beginning of June. As of July 3, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose to 8230 yuan / ton, an overall increase of 7.86%.

From the point of view of raw material price, the price of raw material butadiene fell sharply from the beginning of June to the beginning of July, which could not promote the rise of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber from the cost side. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the butadiene price in early June was 4140 yuan / ton, and as of July 2, the butadiene price dropped to 3445 yuan / ton, with an overall decline of 16.79%.

Trend chart of all steel tire operating rate from January to June 2020

From the perspective of downstream tire industry, the operating rate of all steel tire fluctuated around 70% in May and June, with little change. The demand side is mainly rigid, but the increment is not much. It forms a bottom support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the business agency, as of mid June, the operating rate of domestic all steel tire manufacturers was around 70%.

Compared with the price of natural rubber, natural rubber has driven the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber to a certain extent. At the beginning of June, the price of natural rubber was around 10120 yuan / ton, while the price of cis-1-polybutadiene rubber was 7630 yuan / ton, and the price difference was around 2400 yuan / ton. The huge price difference enhanced the substitutability of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, and pushed the price of cis-1,1-polybutadiene rubber to move up.

In addition, judging from the recent operation of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant of petrochemical manufacturers, the maintenance plan of Yanshan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and Qilu Petrochemical Co., Ltd. of 80000 T / a cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber unit, to a certain extent, stimulated the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber to further increase. According to the business agency, Yanshan Petrochemical’s 120000 T / a gaoshun butadiene rubber plant will be shut down for maintenance from July 1, and the preliminary estimate is that the plant will be shut down for 24 days, and the factory’s inventory is low; Qilu Petrochemical’s 80000 T / a gaoshun butadiene rubber unit is planned to be shut down for maintenance in the middle of July, with an estimated time of 10-15 days.

Aftermarket forecast: business agency analysts believe that the current price rise of CIS polybutadiene rubber is still a rebound rather than a reversal, mainly due to the small improvement in demand growth. On the one hand, as the global epidemic continues to spread, trade friction is likely to intensify, casting a shadow on future demand. In addition, it is difficult for raw material prices to rebound significantly in the short term. From the perspective of the industrial chain, it is still difficult to form a profit for the later cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. On the other hand, in the short term, driven by plant maintenance and natural rubber, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber may still have a small increase space, but on the whole, the price is difficult to reach 9000 yuan / ton.

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the average price of domestic aggregated MDI market was 12250 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 12175 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 0.61% during the month and a decrease of 1.02% compared with the same period last year.

Product: in June, the domestic aggregate MDI market was in a stalemate range, and the price fluctuation range was small, and the overall situation was weak. The average load of supply side in this month was slightly higher than that in May. Shanghai BASF and Shanghai Huntsman units were basically overhauled after the middle of June, and the devices in Ruian plant were still in shutdown state. The load of kosstro device increased slightly, and Wanhua Yantai device began to be overhauled in early July, lasting about 45 days. At the end of this month, the listing prices of major factories in July were stable, and the settlement prices in June were all on the high side.

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene: the price of pure benzene in East China rose first and then fell. In the first half of this month, the price rose due to the rise of crude oil. In the second half of the month, the pressure of port delivery appeared, which suppressed the softening of spot price.

Aniline, aniline market rose steadily in the first ten days of the month, while prices fell in the second ten days of the month. In the first ten days of the month, Shandong Jinling and Huatai aniline plants were reduced by half, and the aniline units of Jilin kangnair and Lanzhou Petrochemical were shut down for maintenance, and the market supply was reduced.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, in June 2020, there were 40 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, of which 18 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 20% of the total number of commodities monitored in this plate; the top three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (32.19%), ethylene (24.98%) and sulfur (24.05%). There were 43 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 17.8% of the total number of monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products were butadiene (- 16.51%), chloroform (- 13.04%) and acetic anhydride (- 12.50%). This month, the average rise and fall was 0.97%.

At present, the listed prices of suppliers in July are stable, and the specific supply policy is not clear for the time being; Shanghai factory is expected to make a statement at the beginning of next month, and the market atmosphere is stagnant and cold, and the future market is not clear. MDI analysts from the business community gather expect that the market will be temporarily deadlocked and wait-and-see in the next month. If the Shanghai factory continues to follow the market, the market price may rise slightly; if one of the Shanghai factories has a large volume of goods, the market price may go down.

Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business associations, the domestic ABS market was relatively strong in June, and the spot price of the market was mostly increased. As of June 30, the mainstream offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 13250.00 yuan / ton, which was 5.58% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

On the upstream side of ABS, the domestic mainstream styrene prices fluctuated generally in June. According to the monitoring results of business cooperatives, the prices of sample enterprises of business cooperatives were 5550.00 yuan / ton on June 12, 5483.33 yuan / ton on June 19, and the average prices of sample enterprises were about 5400.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.82% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month and a decrease of 38.64% compared with the same period last year. The contradiction between supply and demand has not changed. In terms of inventory, the current social inventory of styrene has fallen down, which has a certain support for the price. However, the social stock of styrene is still at a historical high, and the increase may be restrained by more ships arriving in Hong Kong later. At present, with the enhancement of regional security inspection and epidemic prevention, the cost of warehousing freight will further rise, and the spot selling pressure will continue to increase, suppressing the future market trend;

In June, the domestic acrylonitrile market performed poorly, the operating rate of production enterprises increased, and the spot supply in the market was sufficient. The downstream should be prepared carefully, and it can be taken as soon as it is used. Demand is weak, it is difficult for businesses to ship goods, the actual transaction center is down, and the acrylonitrile market is expected to be weak;

In June, the domestic butadiene market fell to the bottom, breaking through the new low of the year. According to the monitoring price of business agency, the domestic butadiene market price was 4140 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 3456 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 16.51% during the month and a decrease of 58.85% compared with the same period last year. At present, the domestic ocean going ships are abundant in Hong Kong. Although there is a certain demand for butadiene in the downstream factories of Shandong Province, the market is still weak under the influence of the abundant supply of tank farms. The transaction of some northeast spot resources is not smooth, and the manufacturers’ prices continue to fall under pressure, and the market center of gravity falls with the whole body. Recently, the external market has been in a low level, Sinopec’s butadiene supply price has been lowered, and Shenhua Ningxia coal and Yangba butadiene plants have been restarted in the middle and late June, adding to the expected arrival of European ships. As a result, the supply side of the domestic butadiene market continues to increase. Although the start-up of major downstream industries remains relatively high, it is difficult to reverse the downward trend of butadiene market rapidly under the pressure of supply side. The market of butadiene continued in the low range. In the future, supply pressure may become normal, and there is no obvious improvement in fundamentals. Under the boost, the domestic butadiene market continues to fluctuate in the bottom range. It is suggested to pay attention to the latest price and transaction guidance of internal and external markets;

This month, the domestic ABS market stabilized after rising, which was due to the positive effect on the market of helmet consumption stimulated by relevant regulations of helmet safety guard action last month. Therefore, the operating rate of ABS petrochemical plant in China was almost full load operation. According to statistics, in June, the overall domestic ABS plant was started about 97%, and the total output was about 335000 tons. In the first half of 2020, the domestic ABS production was about 1828000 tons. In June, the operating rate and output of ABS polymerization plant decreased, indicating that the downstream demand was weakened. The existing inventory is still at a low level, and the lack of on-site spot circulation is the driving force to support the prices of merchants. At the end of the month, the market performance was calm, and the downstream factories were mainly cautious in stock preparation. Some brands had a narrow range of 50-150 yuan / ton, and the trend turned to a stalemate and weak.

Future forecast:

Business agency analysts believe: ABS market in June after a standstill, the price of each brand is high. Cost side of the upstream three material trend is not good, the cost side support is weak. At present, the ABS spot supply is still less, the downstream of the ABS high price goods conflict, just take the goods to the bill, merchants are currently limited profit margin. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will be adjusted downward in a narrow range in the near future.

In 2020, affected by the epidemic situation, the phenol market hit a new low in the first half of the year. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the phenol commodity index on July 1 was 55.01, down 0.94 points compared with yesterday, 44.99% lower than 100.00 points (2011-09-01), and 47.72% higher than 37.24 points, the lowest point on April 7, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Trend of phenol commodity index in East China from 2011 to 2020

On January 1, 2020, the average price of phenol in China was 7325 yuan / ton, and that in April 7 was 4900 yuan / ton, with the market down by 33.11%. Among them, the East China market dropped from 7300 yuan / ton on January 1 to 4500 yuan / ton on April 2, with a drop of 38.4% in the East China market. From the above point of view, the phenol market has reached a new record low (since 2011).

Trend chart of average price of phenol in the national market in 2020

2020 is an extraordinary year. After the Spring Festival holiday, the epidemic broke out in an all-round way, and the logistics and transportation were blocked in all parts of the country. The phenol market also experienced an unusual period in this year. Under the domestic epidemic situation, the market was more sluggish, with few transactions. However, the phenol market price fluctuated little. From the trend of phenol Market in the first two months, the overall price was 7000 yuan/ About tons. However, after the global epidemic is serious and crude oil has plummeted, phenol, like most petrochemical products, is constantly breaking the low point. In 2020, we will witness too many historical moments. Specifically:

From January to February, the domestic phenol market was almost quiet. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the daily price of phenol in January 1 was 7325 yuan / ton, and that in February 18 was 7425 yuan / ton, with a maximum amplitude of 4% in a month and a half. Then, in late February, the market calm was finally broken. The business agency investigated more than 20 enterprises in the national phenol ketone industry chain, and most of them were in operation, but compared with the pre holiday operating rate With the gradual resumption of the market, the logistics and transportation problems are gradually alleviated. There are still difficulties in the short-term substantial increase of demand. The mentality is insufficient, the low price is frequent, and the focus of negotiation is constantly falling. As of February 28, the average offer of phenol Market in China was 7062 yuan / ton, which was 7.38% lower than that in the middle of February.

In March, the phenol market officially started a sharp decline trend. OPEC held a ministerial meeting on March 5, which decided to recommend that OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries implement an additional production reduction of 1.5 million barrels per day until the end of this year, and also proposed to extend the current production reduction plan of 1.7 million barrels per day from the end of March to the end of this year. As OPEC and non OPEC oil producing countries failed to reach a consensus, Saudi Arabia substantially reduced the price of crude oil sold to foreign markets such as Europe, the Far East and the United States, and Saudi Arabia also intended to increase production. As soon as the news came out, the crude oil market experienced a rare one-day slump of 30%. Under the impact of public events and crude oil plummeting, the petrochemical market suffered a serious setback in the whole industrial chain, and the petrochemical phenol also showed up A cliff fall. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the phenol market continued to decline in March, with a cumulative decline of more than 30%. As of the Qingming Festival, the East China market quotation fell to 4500 yuan / ton.

From April to may, the sharp rise of crude oil led the phenol Market to stop falling and recover, breaking out of the trough. First, affected by the expected agreement on production reduction between Saudi Arabia and Russia, WTI and Brent soared by 25% in a single day. After the Qingming Festival, the listing price of pure benzene rose from 2250-2850 yuan / ton (average price 2450 yuan / ton) to 2850-3800 yuan / ton (average price of 3240 yuan / ton) on the 10th day, an increase of 32.4%. As an important raw material of phenol, pure benzene promoted the rise of phenol and increased market participation With the recovery of terminal operating rate, the phenol market gradually pushed up in the rise and fall of phenol Market. Second, affected by the 200% rise of acetone, a byproduct of the same plant, the phenol ketone industrial chain is very bright in the whole chemical industry. The sharp rise of acetone drives up the upstream and downstream products of the whole industrial chain. The rising of common raw materials is good for the cost support of phenol market and the market activity is improved.

In June, the first ten days were supported by the early positive, continued the upward trend, and the second ten days turned down mainly. The phenol Market offered 6750 yuan / ton on June 1, 7925 yuan / ton on June 9, up 17.41% in 9 days, and 7150 yuan / ton on June 30, a decrease of 9.78% compared with that on June 9. However, from the perspective of the mainstream East China, it fell below 7000 yuan / ton in July. In the late June, the phenol market fell into a weak and weak downturn. Although the operating rate of domestic phenol plants decreased again narrowly, the overall operation rate was 60-70%. Among them, Changshu Changchun and Tianjin Zhongsha continued to shut down, Yangzhou Shiyou’s operating rate was reduced by about 60-70%. It is expected that the plant will be shut down for short-term maintenance at the beginning of next month, and Huizhou Zhongxin in South China will resume the restart last week. In terms of ports, a small amount of goods arrived in late June for replenishment. After the Dragon Boat Festival, Hengyang replenished about 5000 tons, and Huaxi added more than 2000 tons. The port inventory is relatively reasonable, not high or low, and the supply side is not under pressure. Although the supply side is relatively reasonable, the market is in the psychological state of buying up and not buying down, the enthusiasm of intermediate traders to participate is not high, and the situation of terminal factories is not optimistic. The factories purchase more on demand, and a small amount of inventory. Many mainstream end users keep reducing the operating rate because of the downward trend of the industrial chain, and only sell the inventory of enterprises. In the late June, the downstream demand is not good The market continues to decline.

Recent maintenance status of phenol ketone plants in China

In July, the operating rate of phenol plants in China has dropped to 60%. In July, the 350000 T / a phenol ketone plant in Tianjin Zhongsha is expected to start on July 10, the 400000 T / a phenol ketone plant of Shanghai xisa chemical is expected to start in late July, the 320000 T / a phenol ketone unit of Yangzhou Shiyou is expected to start on July 10, and the 400000 t / a phenol ketone unit of Sinopec No.3 well will be shut down on June 28, and it is expected to start up at the end of August. Therefore, from the late July, the operating rate is expected to rise, the supply is relatively sufficient, the demand side is looking at the low buying gas, the industry is not prosperous, and the factory start-up is also gradually declining. In the international situation, some factories are gradually returning to work, and the import volume is steadily increasing. The business association predicts that the demand side is hard to say good, and the supply side is full of bad news. The phenol Market is expected to be 6400-6800 yuan / ton in July.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, the domestic PA66 market fluctuated and adjusted in June. As of June 30, the average price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding mainstream offer was about 18900.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.53% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Analysis of influencing factors:

The trend of adipic acid upstream of PA66 in June continued the consolidation market in May, and the price rise and fall was weak, and the market was calm. According to the data of the business agency, the price of adipic acid rose slightly in June, but fell by only 0.9% in the whole month. The price of dealers showed mixed ups and downs, with the range of 100-200 yuan / ton. In terms of cost, crude oil continued to consolidate at a high level, and its impact on downstream was gradually weakened. The direct upstream product of adipic acid, pure benzene, dropped significantly in June, and the high level fell. In May, the sharp rise of pure benzene by 15% did not bring fundamental benefits to adipic acid. In June, pure benzene was recalled, adipic acid still did not follow, and the contradiction between supply and demand was still the main reason that puzzled adipic acid market out of the haze. In the later stage, the business club believes that the current oil price has reached a periodic high, and it has slightly stopped rising and falling due to the expansion of overseas epidemic situation at the end of June, and the recovery trend of chemical industry has also been restrained to a certain extent, and the fundamentals are mainly empty. In addition, the cost side is affected by the callback of pure benzene, and the price support of hexanedioic acid is weakened, which does not rule out the subsequent decline. More importantly, there is still no demand He Lihao, adipic acid has been consolidation in a narrow range for two consecutive months from May to June. The so-called long-term decline is inevitable. In the context of demand slowdown caused by the current epidemic situation, it is not ruled out that adipic acid prices may continue to explore lower.

In the first half of June, the price of PA66 market rose due to the decrease of spot on the spot, and the long overdue market price of PA66 market turned warm. After more than half a month’s adjustment, the situation of less supply in the market has been improved. At present, the domestic spot supply of PA66 is sufficient, and some factories have reduced the load and production. The operating rate of Shenma industry is about 80%, half of Huafeng Group’s units are shut down, Liaoyang Xingjia plant is shut down, and half of Dandong Youxian technology’s units are shut down. PA66 short-term tight supply has come to an end. At present, there is resistance to shipment from merchants and the transaction is difficult. Downstream factories are more resistant to high price goods, so they are more cautious in stock preparation.

Future forecast:

Business agency analysts believe that: June domestic PA66 market narrow shock adjustment. The spot price of adipic acid in the upper reaches is temporarily stable, which can not support the cost of PA66. In the first half of the month, the spot supply decreased, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market eased, and the price rose. In the second half of the month, the shortage of goods improved, the business offer was loose, and there was resistance to trading. The downstream demand needs to be improved, and the goods preparation just needs to be operated. It is expected that PA66 market will continue to fall in the short term.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business agency, the price of potassium sulfate 50 granules was 2725 yuan / ton at the beginning of June, and 2675 yuan / ton at the end of the month, which was 12.73% lower than that in 2019. The overall operation of potassium sulfate market this month is stable. The operating rate of Mannheim potassium sulfate industry is as high as 75%, and the highest value in some regions is 80%, which is the highest value in recent years. The market of Manheim 52% water soluble powder is better than other products. The price of potassium sulfate in the water salt system is relatively stable this month. Since the end of April, the State Investment Corporation luok has entered the stage of routine summer shutdown and maintenance. It is tentatively scheduled to resume production before the end of September. This summer overhaul lasts for or as long as five months, which also provides a certain support for the price.

At present, the agricultural demand of domestic potash fertilizer market enters the off-season, and the demand continues to be light. According to the Convention, the price of potash fertilizer will enter the low-level operation state in summer. Upstream potassium chloride market has been at a low level in June, has basically bottomed out. Downstream compound fertilizer has also been in a weak position, dealers mainly wait-and-see, market waiting for autumn fertilizer policy.

3、 Future forecast

Potassium sulfate analysts of the business club believe: at present, the overall pressure of potassium sulfate manufacturers is not big, enterprises have no inventory pressure, and the end of tobacco potassium sulfate bidding in 2020 will also bring good information to the market. It is expected that in the short term in the future, the market will be stable and some minor key will be given priority to.

According to the monitoring of the business agency: since June, the hydrogen peroxide terminal papermaking and printing industry has warmed up. Hexanolamide enterprises have high purchasing enthusiasm, and rigid demand has increased. The price of hydrogen peroxide has been rising all the way. As of July 1, the price of hydrogen peroxide is still rising. 27.5% of the average market price of hydrogen peroxide has broken through the 1000 yuan mark, which has increased by 33.91% compared with the beginning of June.

According to the monthly up and down chart of hydrogen peroxide from January 2019 to June 2020, it can be seen that the period from February to may in 2019 is the period of hydrogen peroxide’s great rise. On the contrary, hydrogen peroxide falls by more than 20% in June, and hydrogen peroxide is the highest annual increase of nearly 40% in August.

Hydrogen peroxide has been declining from February to may in 2020, with a decrease of more than 18% in February and a decrease of more than 10% in April. In June, hydrogen peroxide rose 32.19%, close to the highest increase of hydrogen peroxide in 2019.

Let’s make a specific analysis of the reasons for the sharp rise of hydrogen peroxide in June 2020

At the beginning of June, the terminal opened the stock market, all efforts were made, caprolactam manufacturers centralized procurement, sulfur dioxide urea customer purchase orders increased, Chenming Paper and Cangzhou Xuyang successively purchased, and rigid demand increased. In addition, on June 9, the hydrogen peroxide manufacturer, Dezhou Shihua, stopped for maintenance, and the supply was tight. The hydrogen peroxide manufacturers raised their prices one after another, and the mainstream price rose by 60-80 yuan / ton.

Hangzhou Mingxin hydrogen peroxide Co., Ltd. has shut down the hydrogen peroxide plant for maintenance in the middle and late June of some enterprises, and Binhua will also carry out the shutdown maintenance at the end of the month. Hydrogen peroxide terminal caprolactam manufacturers, sulfur dioxide urea customers, paper industry purchase orders for hydrogen peroxide increased, supply was tight, hydrogen peroxide price ex factory price continued to rise for four consecutive weeks, with weekly increase of 50-100 yuan / ton.

Throughout June, the price of hydrogen peroxide continued to rise, with an average market price of more than 1000 yuan / ton, with an increase of more than 30% stimulated by the increasing demand of terminal paper industry and caprolactam

On July 1, Hongye, Chenming, Xuyang and other paper industries were still purchasing strongly. The purchasing demand of caprolactam enterprises in Hebei Province continued to increase. The manufacturers of hydrogen peroxide were still raising their ex factory prices. Compared with the beginning of June, the price of hydrogen peroxide rose 33.91%.

Hydrogen peroxide analysts of the business agency believe that: the purchasing demand of terminal paper industry and caprolactam enterprises is supported, and the supply of hydrogen peroxide manufacturers is tight, there is still room for hydrogen peroxide to rise in July, and the expected increase may not be as big as that in June. After all, the increase of hydrogen peroxide in June is close to the highest monthly increase in 2019.

1、 Trend analysis

In the first half of 2020, the nickel price first fell and then rose. According to the data of the business association, in 2020, the nickel price was 113733.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year, and 103033.33 yuan / ton in the middle of the year, a decrease of 9.41% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.99%. The highest point in the first half of the year was 114983.33 yuan / ton on January 13, and the lowest point was 92116.67 yuan / ton on March 19, with an earthquake amplitude of 24.82%.

According to the current nickel comparison chart of the business community, the current trend of nickel in 2020 is basically the same, and most of the time, the spot price is higher than the main contract price. Near the middle of the year, the main basis is positive, which is bad for buying hedging.

2、 Market analysis

Shock drop (from January to late March): from January to March, due to the impact of the epidemic, domestic production and return to work were slow, and enterprises almost stagnated. In particular, the demand for downstream civil areas of terminals was obviously affected by the epidemic situation of coronavirus infection, including stainless steel products (building, decoration, tableware, equipment), electroplating (automobile and sanitary ware), battery (automobile, 3C digital), resulting in nickel price of 1 Fall again.

After a slight rebound (from late March to June) after entering the second quarter, with the resumption of production of domestic enterprises, Philippine nickel ore decreased, and the reduction in supply was more clear than that in the earlier period. The spot price of nickel pig iron stopped falling and became firm. Due to the improvement of consumption and the contraction of some supply links, the balance of supply and demand was greatly improved compared with the first quarter, and a small amount of warehouse removal could be realized, but the downstream was not rusty Due to inventory pressure, the price of steel is difficult to improve, and stainless steel plants are reluctant to reduce production significantly, which hinders the rebound momentum of nickel price, and nickel price rebound is relatively slow.

Import volume of nickel ore and concentrate from January to may 2020 (10000 tons)

Total of January February March April May

The import volume of nickel ore and its concentrate (10000 tons) 283.86153.72161 133.7168616.493

Compared with the previous year, 18.34% 40.91% – 42.30% – 65.80% 24.83% – 24.02%

As shown in the table above, China’s total import of nickel ore from January to may in 2020 is about 6.16493 million tons, a decrease of 24.02% year-on-year. As the first year of Indonesia’s complete ban on nickel ore export, domestic nickel ore import was affected. In addition, due to the epidemic situation, nickel ore from the Philippines was also suspended from shipment. The import volume of China’s two major laterite nickel ore importing countries dropped sharply, and the total domestic nickel mine import fell sharply. According to the data of the General Administration of customs, China’s import of nickel ores and concentrates in May was 1680734 tons, up 24.83% month on month and down 67.6% year on year. Among them, the Philippines is the largest supplier of China’s nickel ores and concentrates. China’s import volume from the Philippines in May was 1342841 tons, an increase of 22.4% month on month and a decrease of 60% year-on-year.

Trend of downstream stainless steel

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the first half of 2020, stainless steel will be restrained first and then increased, and then slightly weakened. At the beginning of the year, the stainless steel price was 13366.67 yuan / ton, with a small and medium-sized drop of 8.48% to 12233.33 yuan / ton. The lowest price in the year was 11358 yuan / ton on April 9, and the highest price was 12575 yuan / ton on May 13, with an earthquake amplitude of 10.71%. Affected by the epidemic situation, the stainless steel market was almost stagnant until March. However, the output of stainless steel plants was still low in March, and the surplus supply of nickel pig iron was still obvious. Although the delivery of stainless steel was improved, the trend of accumulating stock has not stopped due to the large amount of overstocked goods in the early stage. In the second quarter, due to inventory pressure, the price of stainless steel was difficult to improve, and stainless steel factories were unwilling to reduce production significantly. On the surface, there was support for nickel demand. However, in this consumption that could not be transmitted to the terminal, it was difficult for stainless steel prices to rise.

Domestic import of nickel pig iron increased greatly

Due to the continuous shortage of nickel ore supply, the import volume of domestic nickel pig iron increased greatly. With the continuous production of local NPI projects in Indonesia, the shortage of nickel ore supply will be made up by Indonesian ferronickel. In 2020, the increment of Indonesia’s NPI will make up for China’s reduction, and the total amount will maintain growth, but the growth rate will drop to 15%. From January to June 2020, Indonesia’s cumulative output of ferronickel is 254200 tons, while that of China is 249900 tons. Indonesia’s output has been reversed and become the largest producer of ferronickel. In addition, the output of stainless steel is basically stable and the demand changes little, so the supply of ferronickel will be relaxed again.

To sum up, although the supply of nickel ore is tight, but the supply of nickel pig iron is short. In the second half of 2020, the nickel basic surface is empty, the surplus of nickel pig iron exceeds the expectation, and the consumption side of pure nickel recovers slightly, and the overall surplus will still be partial. However, the low nickel price also has support. The imported laterite nickel ore price is high, and the stainless steel production is generally stable. Therefore, the nickel price in the second half of 2020 may be in the form of Now a small range of weak shocks.

In the first half of 2020, the domestic polyester filament market showed a downward trend as a whole, with polyester POY falling the most obviously, with a half year decline of 22.42%, followed by polyester FDY with a decrease of 20.99% and polyester DTY with a drop of 19.03%.

Average price rise and fall of polyester filament Market from January to June 2020, unit: yuan / ton

Products rise and fall from January 1, 2020 to June 30, 2020

Polyester POY (150D / 48F) 7144 5542 – 22.42% – 33.99%

Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) 7623 6023 – 20.99% – 31.98%

Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) 8832 7151 – 19.03% – 27.95%

The first stage: from January to the first ten days of February, some factories in the traditional Spring Festival holiday entered the traditional Spring Festival maintenance state. At the same time, due to the spread of health emergencies, downstream production enterprises stopped work and logistics stagnated, and the demand side entered a “vacuum period”. Especially from mid February, the price of polyester POY (150D / 48F) fell to April 2, and the average market price was 4844 yuan/ Tons, the lowest price in nearly 10 years, down 63.42%.

The second stage: the Qingming holiday polyester filament downstream ushered in a wave of historical bottom reading, the factory went to the warehouse substantially, the inventory pressure eased, the enthusiasm for production was improved, so the price also ushered in a wavelet rebound. However, it is a pity that during the period from mid April to the end of April, due to the sharp drop of crude oil price and the negative value, the panic state of downstream completely covered up speculative purchasing, and the cost of polyester filament fell and the inventory was under pressure, so the price fell again.

The third stage: since the end of April, the price of polyester filament is getting warmer, which is mainly due to the rising demand for domestic polyester protective clothing, which leads to the downstream purchasing wave. At the same time, the price of crude oil market shows a fluctuating and rising pattern, and the cost side also forms a certain support. However, due to the domestic traditional off-season superimposed on the light export, the downstream weaving enterprises are nervous about the cash flow, and the purchasing tends to be rational gradually. The demand is low, and the continuous decline begins in mid June.

Commissioning of new domestic polyester plants in the first half of 2020, unit: 10000 tons

Company name production capacity supporting products launch time

Nantong Hengke 10 polyester filament cation, January 1, 2020

Hengyi Haining new material 25 polyester filament POY February 23, 2020

Wankai (Chongqing) 60 polyester bottle tablet, March 25, 2020

Jiaxing Yipeng 25 polyester filament, March 31, 2020

Dalian Yisheng 30 polyester bottle piece, April 3, 2020

Xinfengming Zhongyi 30 polyester filament, April 9, 2020

Nantong Hengke 10 full dull polyester filament, April 30, 2020

Lixin chemical fiber 3 polyester polyamide, May 23, 2020

Wuxi Huaya 20 polyester chip, May 28, 2020

Eason Hainan 50 polyester bottle tablet, June 9, 2020

Fujian Yijin 10 polyester staple fiber, polyester chip, June 10, 2020

Ganghong fiber (Shenghong) 20 full dull polyester filament, June 20, 2020

Total 293

In terms of production capacity, under the background of continuous low market level, the growth rate of new production capacity of polyester and polyester filament in the same period in the first half of 2020 has increased significantly. The total new production capacity of domestic polyester is 2.93 million tons, including 1.2 million tons of polyester filament, accounting for 41% of the total new production of polyester. In comparison, the new production of domestic polyester in 2019 totaled 1.37 million tons, of which the new production of polyester filament was 530000 tons, accounting for 38.7% of the total new production of polyester in that year. From the perspective of long-term strategy of the industry, domestic pet leading enterprises still “go against the trend” and successively implement the previous production plan. First, accelerate the industrial layout of refining and chemical polyester integration, have strong capital and risk control ability, expand the enterprise capacity through their own enterprise strength, further improve the industry share, and squeeze the survival space of small and medium-sized enterprises; secondly, most of the products put into production are poor Alienated unconventional products enrich our own production line.

In the first half of 2020, the trend of polyester operating load is first down and then up, and then gradually returns to the normal level in a small fluctuation. After the traditional Spring Festival holidays and the spread of health emergencies, under the pressure of high storage, factories have implemented production reduction, and the operating load once dropped to a historical low near 6. Then, with the downstream weaving enterprises returning to work and the partial recovery of logistics, the demand port was released, which further promoted the start-up load of polyester filament. And under the background of inventory decompression and high production in the downstream of Qingming, the production enthusiasm of the factory has been continuously improved, and the current total start-up has reached a high level of more than 86%.

The PTA Market of raw materials fell first and then rose. As of June 30, the average market price was 3617 yuan / ton, down 27.35% compared with the beginning of the year, and 43.18% lower than the same period of the year. In the first stage, crude oil prices showed a cliff like decline under public safety and health events. Affected by this, PTA continued to decline and fell to 3068 yuan / T on April 22, breaking a new record low. Especially in February, due to limited transportation and insufficient demand, PTA inventory has accumulated significantly, reaching nearly 1 million tons in the current month. Entering the second stage, although the pressure of supply and demand continues to accumulate, and the social inventory has been maintained at more than 3.7 million tons since April, with the strengthening of crude oil, the cost side has shown favorable support, and the overall narrow range of upward.

In the downstream terminal textile and weaving Market, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms dropped to around 0.6% in early February. With the enterprises gradually returning to work, the demand rose to around 70% in the middle of March. The demand recovered slowly, and the order follow-up was insufficient, leading to many weaving manufacturers starting to reduce the burden and production to 40%. Entering may, the order situation is only partially improved, and the overall market trend is still unclear. In June, the atmosphere of the off-season gradually deepened, and it was even more difficult when it was in the off-season of a special year. The demand was sluggish and the transaction was light, falling to around 60%. At present, the conventional products are unsalable, there is no bright spot in the market, and the products are difficult to be transported, which leads to the weaving manufacturers to enter the cumulative inventory cycle. Judging from the current market situation, domestic trade competition is fierce, foreign trade recovery is difficult, weaving manufacturers will continue to accumulate inventory, if there is no substantial change in the future market, the starting rate of manufacturers may further decline. At present, there are about 43 days of cloth warehouse in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, about 41 days in the same period last year, and only about 25 days in the same period in 2018.

According to the latest statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, in May 2020, China’s textile and clothing export volume was 29.554 billion US dollars, with a month on month increase of 38.36%. Among them, the export volume of clothing (including clothing and clothing accessories) was 8.905.7 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 26.93%. From January to May of 2020, China’s textile and clothing exports amounted to US $97.965 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.80%. Among them, the cumulative export volume of clothing was 38.213 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 22.80%.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that the current crude oil production is in a period of reduction, forming a certain support. However, for PTA, the inventory is still at a high level, which is not enough to reverse the industry pattern of surplus supply and demand of PTA in the medium and long term. The current situation of high inventory is difficult to resolve, and the future PTA market is likely to weaken. At the same time, in the short term, the traditional off-season characteristics of textile terminal are more and more obvious, domestic demand is low, and it is difficult to make a breakthrough in export sales. Adding new devices to meet production, it is more likely that the price of polyester filament will fluctuate downward in the second half of the year.