On May 13, the hydrogen peroxide commodity index was 81.52, unchanged from yesterday, down 62.43% from 216.98 (2017-12-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 13.63% from 71.74, the lowest point on August 3, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the data monitoring of the business agency: since May, the terminal demand is still low, and the price of hydrogen peroxide continues the weak market in April, and the price continues to fall. As of May 13, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide fell to 750 yuan / ton, 5.86% lower than that at the beginning of the month.

market analysis

Products: after the May Day holiday, due to the decline of the downstream product export volume of hydrogen peroxide, the industry is in a recession, the demand for hydrogen peroxide continues to be depressed, the supply is loose, the ex factory price of hydrogen peroxide of some manufacturers continues to be lowered, the mainstream quotation is 700-850 yuan / ton, and the price drops about 50 yuan / ton. Although the market of terminal caprolactam products is rising, it has little supporting effect on hydrogen peroxide, which is still difficult to change the weak situation.

As of May 13, the quotation of hydrogen peroxide in each region is as follows:

Shandong Province: the price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Luxi Chemical Industry is 700 yuan / ton, 40 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the month.

Hebei Province: the price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Zhengyuan fertilizer industry is 700 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton from the beginning of the month.

Anhui Province: the price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Quansheng, Anhui Province is 850 yuan / ton, the same as that at the beginning of the month.

Hunan: Hunan Shuangyang 27.5% hydrogen peroxide price is 900 yuan / ton, which is the same as that at the beginning of the month.

Zhejiang: Hangzhou Mingxin 27.5% hydrogen peroxide quoted price of 950 yuan / ton, flat compared with the beginning of the month.

Industry chain: the terminal caprolactam is in short supply, the raw materials are rising, and the price is rising. The paper and printing industry is limited by the decline of export volume, the market is weak, the demand for hydrogen peroxide is relatively low, and the market is weak, mainly declining.

Future prospects

Li Bing, an analyst with hydrogen peroxide of the business club, believes that the rise of terminal caprolactam market is expected to boost the price of hydrogen peroxide back to the rising market, and the price of hydrogen peroxide in the future may stop rising.

In April, affected by the sluggish demand of China and India and other major coal importing countries, the international power coal market was more pessimistic, and the downward pressure on coal prices remained unchanged.

According to the latest monitoring data of the General Administration of customs, in April 2020, China imported 30.948 million tons of coal and lignite, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%; from January to April, China imported 126.726 million tons of coal and lignite, a year-on-year increase of 26.9%, and the average import price was 510.1 yuan per ton, down 4.9%. Although the number of imported coal has increased, the average price still shows a downward trend, which to some extent reflects the essence of pressure operation of the international coal market.

“In April, China’s multi regional customs import policy tightened, while some power plants delayed the bidding plan for imported coal, and the international power coal market became more pessimistic; India, another big coal import country, began to implement the blocking measures in late March. In April, the coal import also “fell sharply. In addition, recently, the Indian government asked domestic power enterprises to use domestic coal to reduce the coal import used for mixing.” Analysts said.

The author finds that the demand of the two major coal importing countries has declined significantly, which aggravates the downward pressure of the international power coal price. In terms of Australian coal, the FOB price of Australian coal fell all the way in April. By the end of April, the FOB price of 5500 kcal of Australian coal had fallen to about $41, down $12 or 22.64% from about $53 at the beginning of the month. In terms of Indonesian coal, as of the end of April, the price of 3800 kcal of Indonesian coal was about 26 US dollars, which had fallen below the cost line of some coal mines, and some coal miners had taken measures to stop production; however, the reference price of power coal (HbAS) released by the Ministry of energy and mineral resources of Indonesia in May 2020 was 61.11 US dollars / ton, still 7.09% lower than the price of 65.77 US dollars / ton in April, a new low since August 2016; Compared with the same period of last year, 81.86 USD / ton decreased by 25.35%.

In addition, the Baltic dry bulk index fluctuated at a low level in April. As of April 29, the overall dry bulk index was 643 points, up 95 points or 17.34% from 548 points in the same period last month. The Baltic Capesize Index rose 995 points to 926, the Baltic Panamax index fell 12 points to 732, and the super convenience index fell 202 points to 404, or 33.33%.

“The CIF price continued to decline, the price of foreign mines was under pressure, the driving force for the rise of international sea freight was insufficient, and the CIF price of imported coal with calorific value continued to decline in April.” Ren Huiyun said. China’s power coal CIF index shows that as of April 24, the average value of each calorific value index in April has declined to varying degrees compared with the average value in March, among which the average value of 3800 kcal imported coal in South China in April is 32.92 USD / ton, down 5.55 USD / ton compared with the average value in March of 38.47 USD / ton, the most obvious decline, reaching 14.42%.

One enterprise person told the author that in the near future, the contradiction between supply and demand still exists in China. With the temperature rising gradually, the daily consumption of key power plants has increased, but under the restriction of high inventory, it is still dominated by digesting its own inventory, the actual purchase demand is limited, and the support of demand for imported coal price under the background of supply exceeding demand is limited; However, after the sharp decline in the price of imported coal in the early stage, some miners have issued relevant quotation measures. On the whole, it is expected that the decline in the price of imported coal in the later stage will be gradually narrowed, and in the short term, the price of coal may be dominated by weak operation, and it is still necessary to focus on the changes in domestic demand and import policies.

However, for this month’s coal price aftermarket, Chen Tianyu, manager of power and coal department of Weihe energy price center, believes that the stability is stronger than the stability, and the spot downward momentum is not strong. But the rising space is not large for the time being. It is more influenced by emotions.

By the end of this afternoon, Zheng coal’s main contract in 2009 was on the rise, with the opening price of 505.6, closing price of 509.8, up 1.15% (5.8), trading volume of 110800 and position of 214400; the port price stabilized, high calorie and low sulfur coal varieties were in short supply, and the demand side of coal price rose against the demand for better performance.

According to the monitoring of the business association, the price of power coal (port) is around 471.75 yuan / ton, 0.16% higher than that on May 11. In the near future, the price of power coal has ended a continuous decline and recovered. In terms of production area, affected by the recent high-speed recovery charges, the cost of transportation in production area increased, and the number of coal hauling vehicles in some areas decreased significantly. Due to the limited downstream demand, the main producer price of power coal at this stage is still weak. However, the port market shows signs of stabilizing and rising slightly. From the downstream power plants, as of May 12, the inventory of six coastal power plants is 15.1278 million tons, the daily coal consumption is 642000 tons, and the available days are 23.56 days. Since May, the national temperature is significantly higher, the daily consumption of power plants is significantly increased, but the inventory is still high. The actual procurement demand is limited, and the background of supply exceeding demand continues. The inventory of six major power plants has declined, but the current inventory level is still on the high side.

Business analysts believe that: after May 1st, highway recovery charges, coal downstream users more on-demand procurement, poor mine market shipments, price pressure. The market demand of downstream power plants has picked up slightly, driving the price of power coal to rise slightly. Generally speaking, the price of power coal may rise slightly in the short term, but in the long term, the pressure of power coal supply and demand contradiction still exists, the weak demand situation of port market is still obvious, and the space for power coal to rise in the later period is insufficient.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of May 12, the average price of domestic power product lithium iron phosphate was 40000.00 yuan / ton, and the market remained stable.

market analysis

Product: the domestic power type high-quality product lithium iron phosphate maintains stable operation. Now the mainstream market price range is 36000-4000 yuan / ton. Lithium iron materials are mainly self supplied, with few outsourcing orders, which has little impact on the whole market. BYD is currently the world’s largest supplier of lithium iron phosphate with the largest production capacity. Its battery technology is recognized by the world, and lithium iron phosphate is used as a new energy battery At the same time, domestic enterprises have made efforts frequently, and domestic lithium iron phosphate has begun to march into the overseas market. The advantages of lithium iron phosphate are low cost, good safety performance and rapid technological progress.

Industry chain: the quotation of some upstream lithium carbonate enterprises was slightly reduced. At present, the overall supply of lithium salt is relatively sufficient, the demand side performance is still poor, and the market trading atmosphere is general.

Industry: on May 11, the chemical industry index was 636, up 3 points from yesterday, down 37.40% from 1016 (2012-03-13), and up 6.35% from 598, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

Future forecast

According to the analyst of lithium iron phosphate of business association, lithium iron phosphate, an excellent power product in China, will maintain stable operation in the short term. (the above prices are provided by the major manufacturers of lithium iron phosphate all over the country and analyzed by the analysts of lithium iron phosphate in the business. For reference only, please contact the relevant manufacturers for more details.)

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, today’s market comprehensive price is 12900.00 yuan / ton, up 6.61% compared with the same period last week. At present, the downstream demand of PC is good, the shipment is smooth, and the manufacturer’s quotation is rising.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: the PC market in North China is up with strong cost support, active manufacturers and smooth delivery. Most manufacturers are up with quotation, while the price in South China is up with narrow range. The cost support is strong, and the downstream demand is good. The merchants hold a stable wait-and-see attitude and operate cautiously. In the short term, the PC market is up with narrow range.

Industry chain: the upstream bisphenol a market has a good trading atmosphere and strong cost support. The prices of mainstream manufacturers are rising. The mainstream prices are around 9800 yuan / ton. The operators are cautious and hold a stable wait-and-see attitude.

Industry: on May 11, the rubber and plastic index was 569, the same as yesterday, 46.32% lower than 1060 (2012-03-14), the highest point in the cycle, and 7.77% higher than 528, the lowest point on April 6, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

3、 Future forecast

PC analysts of business club believe that: it is expected to maintain stable operation in the short term, digest the previous gains mainly, and do not rule out the possibility of continuing to rise. (the above prices are provided by major PC manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business PC analysts for reference only. For more details, please contact relevant manufacturers for consultation)

1、 Price trend

This week, the domestic methanol market rose in a narrow range. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of domestic methanol market at the beginning of the week is 1680 yuan / ton, and the price of domestic methanol market at the weekend is 1727 yuan / ton, up 2.83% in the week. The price is 0.11% higher than that of the same period last month, and 23.22% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Products: new parking devices are added in the week, such as Fenghuang, Zhongyuan Dahua, Shaanxi Yuli coal chemical, Shanxi wanxinda, Xinjiang Tianye; part of the devices in Rongxin, Inner Mongolia, and Lunan, Shandong are reduced in production; at the same time, some of the early parking and production reduction devices are restored in the week, such as Yangmei, Luxi, Chongqing kabele. The overall recovery rate is higher than the loss rate, so this week’s operating rate rose in a narrow range, but fell sharply from the same period last year. In the short term, the supply of goods in the market is relatively reduced, and the methanol market is up in a narrow range.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: the domestic formaldehyde market continued to rise this week. After the May 1st Festival, methanol products in the upper reaches of the river went up one after another, mainly based on the impact of toll recovery and replenishment after the festival. The cost side is rising, and formaldehyde enterprises are passively running up under this clamp. The demand for downstream terminals is unsatisfactory and continues to be depressed. Due to the continuous restrictions on export orders, most of the wood board factories have repeatedly postponed their plans to resume work.

Acetic acid: this week, the domestic acetic acid market continued to rise. During the May 1st holiday, the load of Henan supplier’s devices was reduced due to carbon monoxide problem, and the spot market supply was slightly stepped up. The supplier pushed up the offer, driving the market transaction price gradually higher, and then the surrounding low-end suppliers gradually increased. The main manufacturers in East China are short of supplies. The spot manufacturers in Central China and Shandong can sell a small amount of goods. The spot circulation in the market is limited. Some traders and the downstream replenishment after the festival are active, which promotes the acetic acid market to rise smoothly after the festival..

Dimethyl ether: the trading atmosphere of domestic dimethyl ether Market changed from weak to strong this week, and the price gradually increased later this week. During the May Day holiday, the delivery of dimethyl ether was generally low. First, the price of crude oil continued to decline, which led to the decrease of liquefied gas price, thus affecting the purchasing confidence of traders. In addition, the market had a mentality of buying up but not buying down. During the period of price reduction, traders had a strong wait-and-see mood. This week, about 14.82% of domestic dimethyl ether started work, down 0.20% from last week. This week, Guizhou Tianfu and Hebei Jichun stopped for maintenance and Longqiao low load production in Sichuan Province.

3、 Future forecast

From the perspective of business community: although some manufacturers are still in maintenance status this week, considering that there are many re production units in the near future, the overall supply is still sufficient; there are still many arrival forecasts in the later stage of the port, and the port inventory pressure is large; in the aspect of olefins, with the recovery of two sets of MTO equipment, there is support for the market, but the cost of oil to olefins is greatly reduced due to the low price of crude oil At the same time, traditional downstream demand is expected to reduce. Methanol analysts of the business association predict that the methanol market will return to a weak position next week, and the price is expected to fall.

1、 Price trend

On May 11, the TDI commodity index was 58.38, up 5.47 points from yesterday, down 76.46% from 248.02 (2016-10-19), and up 11.07% from 52.56, the lowest point on May 5, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now) according to the data of the large list of business agencies, the average price of TDI market in East China on November 11 was 11033.33 yuan / ton, up 10.33% per day.

2、 Market analysis

Product: last week, the domestic market rose as a whole, the factory continued to release favorable information, and the company’s offer quickly increased. After the festival, the market rebounded under the good news of the factory. At present, the market remains on the sidelines. This week, favorable factors such as equipment maintenance and supply reduction will continue. The market may go higher. However, the downstream inventory is high, and the periodic replenishment has been completed. The inquiry atmosphere is weak, and the high price conflicts. There is a fear of volume reduction in trading. At present, the quotation of domestic goods with bills out of stock is 10200-10500 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with bills out of stock is 10500-10800 yuan / ton, which is subject to the actual delivery.

Industry chain: China’s domestic toluene market rebounded and rose last week. The market expectation was supported by the rise of international crude oil around the labor day. OPEC + started to reduce production and some European countries returned to work to boost production. The trend of strong international crude oil shocks was dominant. Affected by this, domestic methylbenzene price rebounded and rose this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3550 yuan / ton. In the short term, the supply of toluene after the festival is under pressure, and the market is expected to be stable in a narrow range.

On the downstream side, due to the high stock of raw materials purchased at low price in the early stage, the downstream has a low acceptance of the current market rise, a small amount of hard goods need to be replenished in the field, and the overall digestion of the early stock is the main way to reduce the market entry operation. The on-site trading is mostly the early empty single closing position and the price tends to the low end, and the high price trading resistance is still large.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data analyst of the business agency: at present, the domestic TDI market is generally strong, the supplier keeps releasing good news, and maintains a strong attitude towards the market, while the on-site dealers mostly follow the factory policy and maintain a wait-and-see state, the downstream has a low acceptance of high prices, and the intention to enter the market is cold. TDI market is expected to keep rising in the short term and pay attention to downstream acceptance in the later stage.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the spot market price of PTA in China fell slightly. On May 11, the average market price was 3381 yuan / ton, down 0.49% compared with the previous trading day, down 49.54% year on year. The main futures in the futures market (2009) ended down in shock and closed at 3488, down 22% or 0.63% from the previous trading day.

Due to the fall of crude oil, PTA buying is dominated by traders and polyester factories. The trading atmosphere in the spot market has declined, and the inventory is still in the accumulation cycle. In terms of units, the starting load remained at a high level near 92%. Shanghai Petrochemical planned to enter into maintenance on May 16. At present, Jialong petrochemical, Pengwei petrochemical, Liwan new material and Tianjin Petrochemical are still in the shutdown stage, with good profit level of the plant and delayed maintenance plan.

Enterprise name capacity device change

Liwan polyester 70 shut down on April 30, restart to be determined

Hanbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. reduced maintenance on May 9, 2006

Tianjin Petrochemical Co., Ltd. shut down for maintenance on April 17, and restart to be determined

Pengwei Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped at night on March 9 and planned to restart in July

Shanghai Petrochemical 40 plans to enter into maintenance on May 16

In the downstream polyester market, the production and marketing volume brought by the downstream stock up and fund bottom reading before and after the Qingming and may day double festival effectively alleviated the pressure of high inventory. The short-term polyester start-up performance was relatively stable. There was no clear maintenance and restart plan for the factory. A few factories intended to increase the inventory and load, and the start-up was maintained around 84%. At present, the price of mainstream polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is relatively stable and wait-and-see mood is strong. The enthusiasm for purchasing is significantly reduced, and the transaction atmosphere is mainly light. Among them, polyester POY (150D / 48F) is reported at 5400-5550 yuan / ton.

The weaving end is the most direct response to the change of terminal demand. The weaving start-up load began to fall back in late March. There was a large area of parking and holiday phenomenon in Qingming Festival. Even though the start-up rate after the festival rose slightly, with the shutdown of May Day holiday, the current operating rate decreased to 40%. At the same time, affected by this public health event, foreign trade enterprises still face many difficulties, such as cancellation or postponement of orders, difficulty in signing new orders, and poor logistics. From January to April 2020, the cumulative export of textile and clothing reached 66.62 billion US dollars, down 10%, of which 37.31 billion US dollars were textile exports, up 2.9%, and 29.31 billion US dollars were clothing exports, down 22.3%. In April, driven by the export of respirators and other anti epidemic products, China’s textile exports reached 14.62 billion US dollars, up 51.06% year on year, and clothing exports reached 6.74 billion US dollars, down 27.7%.

Xia Ting, an analyst with business news agency, believes that in terms of crude oil, the collapse of demand has led to a serious global crude oil surplus, leading to tight storage capacity. Although OPEC + and US crude oil have plans to reduce production, the pressure on crude oil surplus can hardly be eased in the short term. It is expected that the oil price will mainly fluctuate at a low level, and the driving force of sustained rebound is not strong. At the same time, there are not many expected devices for PTA maintenance at present, the starting load remains high, and the downstream polyester load continues to increase with high pressure, PTA supply pressure remains, high inventory or become the normal PTA, and it is expected that the social inventory of PTA will reach a high value of 4 million tons in May June. Therefore, in a comprehensive view, PTA price volatility is more likely to be weak adjustment.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the domestic toluene market price rebounded and rose this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3500 yuan / ton, up 5.74% on last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: with the entry into may, the OPEC + production reduction agreement came into effect, and many countries in Europe and the United States gradually restarted their economies. During the 5.1 long holiday, the international crude oil rebounded sharply. Affected by this, the domestic toluene price rebounded and rose this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3550 yuan / ton.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, with the gradual economic restart in Europe and the United States, the crude oil market gradually transited from a state of declining demand, near saturation of storage capacity, worrying that the reduction of production is less than expected to a state of demand recovery, and a rebalancing process of supply and demand with declining production. On May 7, Saudi Aramco announced a substantial increase in the price of oil for Europe in June, which led to a strong rebound in international crude oil prices. As of early Friday morning, Brent rose 29.62%, Brent futures rose 17.68%, WTI futures rose 17.41%, and Dubai futures rose 25.12%.

In the downstream, the TDI market is slightly stronger, and the quotation keeps rising. At present, the quotation of domestic goods with bills is 9600-10000 yuan / ton, that of Shanghai goods with bills is 9900-10200 yuan / ton, and that of Wanhua chemical in May is 12000 yuan / ton. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will maintain a stable and small rebound trend, and pay close attention to the later information guidance of the factory and the actual market delivery Investment situation. In PX market, this week, the price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises is about 4000 yuan / ton, and the latest price on the external market is about 471 US dollars / ton for FOB South Korea and 491 US dollars / ton for CFR China. It is expected that the price of PX market will maintain a stable trend in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Toluene analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: in the short term, we can see the supply cost end, OPEC + production reduction, crude oil futures delivery trend in June, and the situation in the United States and Iraq. In the medium term, we can see the demand side, the progress of economic restart in Europe and the United States, and the progress of industrial chain recovery. Next week, we will focus on the impact of the delivery trend of crude oil futures in June. In general, it is expected that the price of toluene in the domestic market next week will depend on the trend of crude oil.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the domestic xylene market price rebounded and rose this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3560 yuan / ton, up 6.27% on last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: with the entry into may, the OPEC + production reduction agreement came into effect, and many countries in Europe and the United States gradually restarted their economies. During the 5.1 long holiday, the international crude oil rebounded sharply. Affected by this, the domestic xylene price rebounded and rose this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 3650 yuan / ton.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, with the gradual economic restart in Europe and the United States, the crude oil market gradually transited from a state of declining demand, near saturation of storage capacity, worrying that the reduction of production is less than expected to a state of demand recovery, and a rebalancing process of supply and demand with declining production. On May 7, Saudi Aramco announced a substantial increase in the price of oil for Europe in June, which led to a strong rebound in international crude oil prices. As of early Friday morning, Brent rose 29.62%, Brent futures rose 17.68%, WTI futures rose 17.41%, and Dubai futures rose 25.12%.

Downstream, in PX market, the price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises this week is about 4000 yuan / ton, and the latest price on the outside market is about 471 US dollars / ton for FOB South Korea and 491 US dollars / ton for CFR China. It is expected that the market price of PX will maintain a stable trend in the short term. In terms of PTA market, the price of domestic PTA spot market is about 3450 yuan / ton, and the price of external market is about 420 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PTA price trend will be stable next week. In the ox market, Sinopec’s offer of o-benzene is stable, with the price of 4000 yuan / ton. The external price of o-benzene is about 440 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will be stable next week.

3、 Future forecast

According to xylene analysts from the chemical branch of business society, in the short term, we can see the supply cost end, OPEC + production reduction, crude oil futures delivery trend in June, and the situation in the US and Iraq. In the medium term, we can see the demand side, the progress of economic restart in Europe and the United States, and the progress of industrial chain recovery. Next week, we will focus on the impact of the delivery trend of crude oil futures in June. In a word, xylene price in the domestic market next week is expected to depend on the trend of crude oil.