According to the data of business agency, on May 26, the average domestic market price of silicon metal (441 × 3) was 11058.33 yuan / ton, up 0.45% compared with 11008.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and down 6.55% compared with 11833.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year.

The price of 441 silicon in each region on the 26th is as follows:

The price range of metal silicon in Fujian area is 10600-10700 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan area is 10900-11000 yuan / ton, that in Kunming area is 10800-10900 yuan / ton, that in Shanghai area is 11500-11700 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin port is 11100-11200 yuan / ton, that in Huangpu port is 11100-11200 yuan / ton 。

In May, the price of silicon metal 441 was stable, and the supply and demand game was dynamic.

On the supply side, silicon companies started work less than expected, their inventory was lower than expected, and silicon companies were willing to hold up prices. Many start-up enterprises adopt the pre-sale mode to lock the production capacity in advance.

At the sales end, the export market was weak in May, with a small amount of rigid procurement as the main demand; the downstream demand in the domestic market was relatively warmer, because of the doubt on the terminal demand and the short expectation on raw materials, the procurement of raw materials was more cautious, mainly on demand, and the inventory of raw materials was low.

Silicon enterprises open or increase in June

In June, the number of silicon enterprises in the southwest production area will increase, and Sichuan will gradually enter the water rich period, and the enthusiasm of silicon plants for furnace opening will gradually increase. In the direction of Yunnan, Baoshan and Lincang silicon plants may increase the starting load as usual, and Yunnan Dehong silicon plant is expected to gradually open in June.

In the direction of Xinjiang, production problems caused by silica shortage and power supply equipment are expected to be solved. With the increase of the operating rate of two large factories in Xinjiang and the smooth operation of medium-sized enterprises in Ili and other places, the capacity will be released or more fully in June.

Three major downstream demand

1. Polysilicon

According to data from the business agency, since April, domestic polysilicon prices have been falling continuously, reaching a historical low.

At present, the supply and demand of polysilicon market is unbalanced. At the supply side, the overall domestic operation rate remains at 80-90%. Although some manufacturers cut production and shut down due to shrinking demand orders, the overall operation rate is relatively high due to relative demand; at the demand side, the global terminal installation is blocked, and the overseas orders at the domestic component end are delayed or cancelled, resulting in the reduction of the domestic component manufacturers’ operation rate, which is then transmitted to the silicon part of the upstream industrial chain.

It is predicted that the demand for polysilicon will not be changed in the short term, the number of production cuts and production stops of enterprises will increase under the double blow of low price and hard to find orders, the operating rate and output may move down on a month on month basis, and the demand for raw metal silicon will be negative.

2. Organosilicon DMC

According to the data of business agency, after the return of the year, the price of organosilicon DMC fell sharply, and the low-level operation was mainly from April to May.

At present, the bottom of organosilicon DMC is fluctuating and the supply and demand game is dynamic and stable. It is reported that in the early stage, many factories have plans to reduce production and stop maintenance, and the market is expected to be better with the efforts of major monomer factories to increase. Recently, the starting load cycle ratio of organosilicon monomer has slightly increased, and the turnover of organosilicon DMC has improved.

Based on the factors of supply chain management, at present, organosilicon, especially some monomer plants, are mainly purchased on demand due to the influence of bearish silicon price and cautious factors on the downstream market, and the possibility of short-term expansion of the demand for raw metal silicon is small.

3. Aluminum alloy

Recently, the inventory of aluminum industry chain has been significantly reduced. As of May 21, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has decreased by 30000 tons to 964000 tons compared with that of last Monday. As of May 22, the inventory of aluminum in the previous period has decreased by 30300 tons to 322100 tons compared with that of last week. The inventory of LME aluminum has increased by 38400 tons to 1458100 tons compared with last week.

It is reported that the consumption of profile and aluminum foil plate is better, and the consumption of aluminum plate belt and recycled aluminum and aluminum cable tends to be weaker. In terms of exports, in April 2020, 441000 tons of aluminum products were exported, down 19% year on year. From January to April, the total export was 1628000 tons, down 16% year on year. At the later stage, the aluminum outlet is under pressure.

The operation rate of domestic aluminum alloy is affected by the improvement of terminal automobile consumption, and the operation rate is relatively high. In April, automobile production and sales were 2.012 million and 2.07 million respectively, up 46.6% and 43.5% month on month, up 2.3% and 4.4% year on year respectively.

However, with the opening of the profit window of aluminum ingot import, the imported aluminum alloy may occupy the domestic aluminum alloy Market in the later stage. It is expected that the consumption of silicon metal for aluminum alloy will be weakened after June.

Future forecast

The metal silicon purchased under rigid demand is greatly affected by the overall supply and demand factors. With the arrival of the wet season, the production capacity may be released, while the downstream consumption may not be able to expand synchronously. It is expected that in the near future, the metal silicon will be mainly operated in the air, and in the later stage, it will focus on the environmental policy factors and the impact of the average cost of social production on the supply side.

According to statistics, the price of domestic fluorite rebounded to the bottom. As of the 26th, the average price of domestic fluorite was 2588.89 yuan / ton, ending the 20 day low state of fluorite market, and the market price of fluorite rose slightly.

The price of fluorite bottomed out and rebounded, among which the most favorable factor was the increase of domestic inquiries. Some manufacturers reported the recent increase of orders for fluorite. Stimulated by the increase of enquiries, the domestic fluorite manufacturers were in a strong mood of rising. The fluorite price was ready to be launched, and the market price was in a strong mood of rising. The operation of domestic fluorite manufacturers is stable, the operation of mines and flotation units in the site is normal, the delivery of fluorite in the site is improved, and the market price of fluorite is slightly higher. In the near future, the downstream hydrofluoric acid market price is still at a low level, and the downstream of the terminal is mainly purchased on demand. As of the 26th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2400-2500 yuan / ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 2500-2700 yuan / ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2500-2700 yuan / ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2600-2700 yuan / ton. In the near future, domestic fluorite businesses see Strong sentiment, fluorite market has a rising trend.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite still fell. As of the 26th, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 8580 yuan / ton. The decline of the market price of hydrofluoric acid had a certain negative impact on the upstream fluorite market. The decline of the downstream hydrofluoric acid Market restricted the growth of fluorite market. Recently, the sales of the automobile industry have improved compared with the previous ones, but the market trend of refrigerant downstream of the terminal is still depressed. There is no obvious improvement in the demand for refrigerant. With the continuous recovery of foreign economy, the export of refrigerant terminal may improve. However, the domestic air-conditioning industry starts at a low level and the demand for maintenance and after-sales is weak. On the whole, foreign demand may rise. At present, the refrigerant R22 manufacturer’s load is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the market price is still fluctuating, but the situation of market price or not appears. The mainstream price of R22 for domestic large enterprises is 14500-17000 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China is declining, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream operation is not high, the demand for R134a is cold, the procurement of downstream industry is not active in the near future, the price drops slightly, the downstream demand is not significantly improved, and the growth of fluorite market is limited to some extent.

On the whole, the market of the downstream refrigerant industry has not improved significantly, but in the near future, the hydrofluoric acid merchants reflect that hydrofluoric acid may rebound to the bottom. Chen Ling, an analyst of the business agency, thinks that the market price of fluorite may rise slightly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business association, as of May 25, based on the quotation of several sample enterprises, at present, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market is around 6233 yuan / ton, up 70 yuan / ton, or 1.08% compared with the price of last Monday (May 18, 6166 yuan / ton), and up 433 yuan / ton compared with the price at the beginning of the month (May 1, 5800 yuan / ton) , up 7.47%.

2、 Market analysis

Product: in a flash, the end of May has come. After the market of butanone was on the upsurge in early May due to the stock in the downstream of labor day and the acetone market of related products, many downstream users purchased butanone as their substitute, which brought a peak of price adjustment for the butanone market. Many factories and dealers raised the market price of butanone on the 7th, and the average market price after the labor day was 6250 yuan / ton Nearby, after a few days of high prices maintaining stability, the attitude of the industry was obviously improved. On the 16th, some areas with low inventory and factories slightly increased the factory quotation of butanone by 50-150 yuan / ton again, and the market reference average price was around 6350 yuan / ton. In late May, due to the impact of international public events, the recovery of the downstream civil engineering and other terminal markets has not been fully opened, the downstream demand follow-up is slow, and the butanone market can not bear the inventory pressure. On 19th, the offer of butanone factory slightly decreased, and the reference average price fell to around 6150 yuan / ton on that day. The market was weak all the way to 25. Driven by the rise of acetone market, the offer of butanone market in some regions was up Adjustment, range: 50-100 yuan / ton. At present, as of the 25th, the butanone market in East China has slightly increased, and the quotation is relatively firm, with an increase of about 50-100 yuan / ton. The mainstream reference quotation in the market is 6100-6350 yuan / ton, and the average reference price is 6250 yuan / ton. Among them, the ex factory quotation of Shandong Dongming pear chemical butanone is 6100 yuan / ton (purified water), 100 yuan / ton higher than a week ago; the ex factory quotation of Shandong Zibo Qixiang butanone is 6300 yuan / ton (purified water), 50 yuan / ton higher than a week ago; the ex factory quotation of Ningbo Jinfa new material butanone is 6400 yuan / ton (purified water), 100 yuan / ton higher than a week ago. The butanone market in South China is mainly in stable operation, with the mainstream reference price of 6200-6350 yuan / ton and the average reference price of 6300 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: after the May Day holiday, CP rose sharply, and crude oil rose, driving the price of liquefied gas up. However, the market is too short. With the completion of replenishment after the downstream holiday, the stock is mainly consumed after delisting. The trading atmosphere in the market is weaker than that in the earlier stage. The manufacturer’s shipment is blocked, and the stock is gradually increased. Then the price will fall. The benefits brought by crude oil to the market are limited. Currently, the market has sufficient supply, but affected by seasonal factors, the weather is gradually warming, and the terminal demand is reduced Less, liquefied gas market is about to usher in the traditional demand off-season. The long replenishment cycle in the lower reaches leads to the imbalance of supply and demand in the market. At present, the civil market of liquefied gas mainly falls. As of the 26th, the outgoing price of Jilin Petrochemical liquefied gas is 2180 yuan / ton, Guangzhou Petrochemical liquefied gas is 2300 yuan / ton, Jingmen Petrochemical liquefied gas is 2620 yuan / ton, Shanghai Petrochemical liquefied gas is 2700 yuan / ton, Gaoqiao Petrochemical liquefied gas is 2780 yuan / ton, Qingdao Petrochemical liquefied gas is 2600 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang Petrochemical liquefied gas is 2600 yuan / ton. Luoyang Petrochemical liquefied gas factory price is 2650 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business association, it seems that the domestic butanone market is the main player this month, but the upward path is difficult and slow, and the downstream demand is still insufficient. In addition, it is heard that a large number of ships arrived at the port around the 20th, and the operators are more cautious to wait and see. Therefore, the small increase driven by acetone or the decline again due to the lack of downstream demand power and other factors.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this week is 11016 yuan / ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of this week is 11033 yuan / ton, up 0.15%.

Products: at present, the price of domestic activated carbon is rising slightly, and the ex factory price of East China coconut shell water purification activated carbon is about 7000-12000 yuan / ton; the domestic activated carbon market is getting better, and most of the goods are from orders.

Industry chain: the cost pressure of coconut shell, fruit shell, charcoal and other main raw materials in the upstream of activated carbon is supported, and the demand is acceptable; the cost support of coal-based carbon raw materials is weak. The downstream power, medicine and other demand industries collect goods according to the single order, the purchase market of activated carbon for air purification and water purification is favorable, the environmental protection policies boost the activated carbon market, and the performance of the activated carbon market is stable.

Forecast: in some areas of the activated carbon market, traders have strong willingness to hold up prices, and the downstream procurement is better than that in the early stage. It is expected that the market price of activated carbon will change only in a short period.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data of business agency, the mainstream price of styrene in China rose this week. Last Friday (May 18), the sample enterprise price of the business association was 5266.67 yuan / ton, and this Friday (May 22), the sample enterprise price was 5500.007 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.43%. The price is 35.17% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Products:

This week, the styrene market price rebounded steadily and maintained stability after a substantial increase. On May 18, the styrene in East China closed at 5300-5400 yuan / ton, and on May 22, 5500 yuan / ton, up 100-200 yuan / ton. The above price is Zhangjiagang’s export price. On May 18, South China styrene closed at 5300-5350 yuan / ton, and on May 22, 5400-5450 yuan / ton, an increase of 100 yuan / ton. The delivery price of the above factories. After this week’s rise in the domestic styrene market, there was a lack of further positive stimulus and the price was stable. Affected by the positive impact of crude oil rise this week, the chemical industry as a whole went well. However, the supply of styrene in the domestic market is still sufficient, and there are few spot shipments. Although the price of downstream styrene rises sharply due to the favorable influence of “one belt and one helmet” in China, the downstream enterprises still mainly digest the early orders and contracts of styrene, which has a limited and short impact on styrene. In addition, the port inventory, this week’s port styrene inventory rose for four consecutive weeks, the spot market supply surplus purchase situation intensified.

Industrial chain:

The upstream crude oil market strengthened this week, driving the strong trend of ethylene and pure benzene, and the styrene production cost support improved. Downstream ABS prices soared, mainly driven by the hype of helmet demand, which led to higher market sentiment, but in fact, the late rise was weak. EPS and PS prices also remained high. Generally speaking, the downstream enterprises of styrene still maintain rigid demand.

3、 Future outlook

As a whole, the whole styrene market lacks strong support points. In May, the situation of styrene supply surplus still exists, but crude oil has a great impact on the styrene industry chain, and the crude oil price is still likely to rebound. It is expected that styrene will be difficult to rise next week, and will mainly be consolidated in a weak shock, with a price of 5350-5500 yuan / ton. The market needs to pay close attention to the trend of crude oil price.

1、 Price data

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of domestic gasoline and diesel rose this week. The price of domestic gasoline was 4664 yuan / ton, 2.74% higher than that of last week. The price of domestic diesel was 4962 yuan / ton, 0.55% higher than that of last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week’s crude oil futures rebounded day by day. In addition to the strong gasoline consumption in summer and the increase in downstream replenishment operations, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices rose slightly this week.

Industrial chain: since May, OPEC + member countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia have implemented large-scale production reduction; crude oil production of the United States has also declined significantly; crude oil inventory of the United States and crude oil inventory of Cushing have also declined significantly. Multiple positive factors jointly push up the international crude oil price. At present, WTI has reached a high since March 10.

Market: in summer, automobile oil consumption is increasing, gasoline consumption is obviously improving, and the international crude oil price has an upward trend, and the downstream replenishment demand is increasing. In terms of diesel, the supporting role of logistics, transportation, engineering, infrastructure and other rigid demands for diesel is still obvious, but at present, the diesel output of refineries is large, so the diesel delivery of some refineries is not as expected. This week’s rise in diesel prices was also less than that of gasoline.

3、 Future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst with business club, believes that: at present, the demand of crude oil market is still in the process of gradual recovery, and the overseas epidemic is still serious. In the short term, the oil price will continue to fluctuate, and the price adjustment of domestic oil products will continue to be below the floor price, and it is expected that the domestic oil product market will be stable and positive.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of Yungui yellow phosphorus decreased this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the week was 17450 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the week was 17300 yuan / ton. The price in the week decreased by 0.86%.

2、 Market analysis

Product: yellow phosphorus market price is down this week. At present, the overall market of yellow phosphorus is generally traded, spot tension is improving, and downstream procurement is more cautious. At present, the main quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 16900-17000 yuan / ton. The quotation in Guizhou is about 16900-17000 yuan / ton. The quotation in Sichuan is about 17000-17500 yuan / ton. The overall market performance is average, the downstream procurement is more cautious, and traders mainly wait and see.

Industry chain: upstream and downstream markets of phosphate rock have been weak in recent days, with insufficient support. In Guizhou Province, the quotation of phosphate ore from many mining enterprises was slightly lowered and put into operation, with a decrease of 10-30 yuan / ton. Yunnan’s market is relatively stable, Hubei’s current weak sorting operation is the main, and Guangxi’s overall weak phosphate ore market is downward. It is expected that the phosphorus ore market will be weak and stable in recent days. The market price of Panzhihua coke (secondary metallurgical coke) is 1780 yuan / ton, which is the same as the previous trading day and the same period last month. The price in Southwest China is mainly stable, and the future market is stable. Downstream, phosphoric acid, phosphate market all over the market stable, general market sales, enterprises to maintain the main orders of old customers.

3、 Future forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the chemical branch of business news agency think that the market price of yellow phosphorus fell this week, and the market trading atmosphere was average. Downstream wait-and-see mood is obvious, take goods carefully. The company basically has no inventory, and the on-site spot sales are OK. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be weak in the near future.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic PTA market price rose first and then fell this week. As of May 22, the average price of the domestic PTA spot market was 3560 yuan / ton, up 3.62% from the beginning of the week, down 40.9% year on year. Crude oil continued to strengthen, its own device maintenance increased, and suppliers bought back the spot again. Under this impetus, PTA price center continued to move up, but on the 22nd, the price fell back and adjusted, down 1.99% per day.

In terms of equipment, the 400000 ton PTA plant of Shanghai Jinshan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was shut down for maintenance in the morning of May 18, with a planned maintenance period of 28 days. The 2.2-million-ton PTA plant of Hanbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. will be shut down for maintenance from January 19, with a planned maintenance period of 1-2 weeks. The starting load of PTA in China decreased from 92% to 87%. In June, the maintenance plan of PTA mainly includes Hainan Yisheng, Xinjiang Zhongtai and Yizheng Chemical fiber. The expansion of profit level makes PTA plant maintenance willingness decline, which does not exclude the possibility of delaying maintenance. In terms of inventory, at the beginning of the year, the production capacity was put into production with high start-up rate, and now the social inventory is more than 3.5 million tons. In terms of processing fee, PTA processing fee has fluctuated between 700-800 yuan / ton since May, which is undoubtedly on the high side in the current stage of overcapacity, mainly due to the weakness of the upstream PX link and the continuous interest yield.

Enterprise name capacity device change

Liwan polyester 70 shut down on April 30, restart to be determined

Hanbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. reduced maintenance on May 9, 2006

Hanbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. will stop for maintenance from May 19, with a planned maintenance period of 1-2 weeks

Tianjin Petrochemical Co., Ltd. shut down for maintenance on April 17, and restart to be determined

Pengwei Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped at night on March 9 and planned to restart in July

Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. will stop for maintenance in the morning on May 18, with a planned maintenance period of 28 days

Hainan Yisheng 200 plans to stop for maintenance for 12-15 days on June 5

The upstream crude oil market, supported by the supply contraction exceeding the expectation and the demand turning better, shows a pattern of fluctuating and rising prices. However, PX did not perform as expected, and its price remained weak. Despite the overhaul of some units in Asia in May, PX supply was still abundant. As of May 21, Asia’s closing prices were $488 / T FOB South Korea and $508 / T CFR China.

Average market price of polyester filament, unit: yuan / ton

Product: up and down on May 15, 2020, up and down on May 22, 2020

Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) 6006 6331 5.41% – 22.28%

Polyester POY (150D / 48F) 5334 5514 3.37% – 29.97%

Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elastic) 7045 7251 2.93% – 24.17%

Polyester staple (1.4d / 38mm) 6532 6682 2.30% – 20.25%

The downstream polyester market rebounded slightly, of which the most obvious increase was polyester FDY, with a weekly increase of 5.41%, followed by polyester POY, polyester DTY and polyester staple, with an increase of 3.37%, 2.93% and 2.30% respectively. The trend of cost end is stronger, which further improves the price focus of polyester market, but the downstream replenishment is weak and cautious. From the perspective of the terminal textile market, the domestic and foreign trade markets have recovered to a certain extent since May, and the domestic demand has gradually recovered. The orders in the weaving market have slightly improved compared with the previous period, the goods are better than the previous period, the enthusiasm of manufacturers has increased, and the loom operating rate has risen by more than 62%. Some overseas countries announced the release of the seal, and the export was also quietly launched. It is reported that orders from Europe, the United States and Southeast Asia have been placed in succession recently.

In terms of textile exports, according to the latest statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, in April 2020, China’s textile and clothing exports reached US $21.361 billion, an increase of 38.43% month on month and 9.77% year on year. Among them, the export value of textiles (including textile yarn, fabrics and products) was 14.620 billion US dollars, up 49.36% year on year; the export value of clothing (including clothing and accessories) was 6.739 billion US dollars, up 30.31% year on year. From January to April, China’s cumulative export of textiles and clothing was 66.626 billion US dollars, down 12.06% year on year, of which the cumulative export of textiles was 37.311 billion US dollars, up 2.90% year on year; the cumulative export of clothing was 29.308 billion US dollars, down 22.33% year on year.

Xia Ting, a business analyst, believes that PTA market is stable and rising driven by the positive cost side. But it is worth noting that PTA “high inventory, high processing costs, high operating rate” has not been fundamentally resolved. At the same time, the internal and external trade of the downstream terminal is recovering slowly, and the order performance is not stable. At present, the purchase of raw materials remains rigid. If the follow-up orders cannot be followed up in time, the possibility of the loom load reduction again will not be ruled out in late June, and the substantial recovery still needs to be observed. Overall, negative factors remain, PTA prices continue to rise under pressure, or enter the stage of correction.

Since May, the raw materials phenol and acetone have been rising continuously, the BPA plant has been under pressure, and the market price has been rising unilaterally. According to the monitoring of business agency, the market offer was 8800 yuan / ton on May 5, and 9960 yuan / ton as of May 22, up 13.18% on the whole.

Since May, phenol and acetone have shown an overall upward trend. Up to now, phenol offers 6600-6700 yuan / ton, and acetone offers 8000 yuan / ton. Therefore, the theoretical cost of BPA plant is 9902 yuan / ton, and the gross profit is 58 yuan / ton.

First of all, from the cost point of view, phenol, as an important raw material of bisphenol A products, has experienced twists and turns since May. After the market goes up, it will be recalled, and then it will continue to push up the price with insufficient driving force. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average offer of phenol Market in China was 6400 yuan / ton on May 5, 6800 yuan / ton on May 22, with an overall increase of 6.25%, of which 7012 yuan / ton was offered on May 10, with a maximum amplitude of 9.57%. By the time of publication, the offers of major mainstream regions in China were 6600-6700 yuan / ton in East China, 6600-6700 yuan / ton in South China, 6600-6700 yuan / ton in Shandong and surrounding areas of Yanshan. The consumption rate of phenol in the production unit of bisphenol A accounted for 0.87, the production cost of p-bisphenol a accounted for a large proportion, and the upward price of phenol after saving strongly supported the price of bisphenol A.

Acetone, another important raw material, accounts for 0.27% of BPA consumption rate in the production unit. Although the proportion is less than that of phenol, the cost of high valence acetone for BPA can not be ignored. After the festival, acetone overall showed a sharp push up and a narrow callback. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the acetone market offered 7325 yuan / ton on May 5, and 8175 yuan / ton on May 22, with an overall increase of 11.6% and a maximum amplitude of 13.58%. By the time of publication, the offers of major mainstream regions in China were 8000-8100 yuan / ton in East China, 7850-7950 yuan / ton in South China and 8400-8500 yuan / ton in Shandong and surrounding areas of Yanshan.

Secondly, from the demand side, the downstream PC market as a whole shows a unilateral upward trend, rising from 12100 yuan / ton to 13433 yuan / ton, with an overall upward trend of 11.02%. The upward mobility of PC mainly comes from the implementation of the “one helmet one belt” policy. As the raw material for helmet front baffle production, the soaring helmet will surely benefit the raw materials, and the PC market will inevitably usher in a small peak of development, but helmet Technology The content is low, the service life is long, and the sharp rise trend is difficult to appear. In the long run, there is still a weak expectation in the domestic PC market. Another important downstream is the high-level finishing of epoxy resin. At present, the liquid epoxy resin is in the period of 19400-20000 yuan / ton. The downstream is in a slow recovery period, and the demand is gradually increasing. The upstream bisphenol A is the main one. After a large round of upward movement, the offer of epichlorohydrin is stable, and the price is relatively high. With the support of favorable cost and demand, the transaction of epoxy resin is gradually increasing. There is no pressure for resin factory to ship.

Thirdly, the domestic bisphenol a unit is 70-80% as a whole, among which, Sinopec Mitsubishi 180000 T / A, Lihua yiweiyuan 240000 T / A, Changchun 400000 T / a start-up are 80%, Kesi Chuang 410000 T / a bisphenol a unit is shut down on May 9, Sinopec Mitsui and Huizhou Zhongxin are operating at full load, but mainly for their own use, and some of the suppliers are long-term customers.

From the perspective of the whole phenol ketone industry chain, the overall increase is the main trend, the upstream pure benzene and propylene show a unilateral upward trend after the festival, and the middle and downstream products are also followed by the upper actors. From the macro perspective, WTI crude oil rose from 19.78 US dollars / barrel to 33.92 US dollars / ton after the festival, up 71.49%. The sharp rise of crude oil after the festival has formed a good support for petrochemical products. At present, the cost side has declined, and the terminal demand has not increased significantly. However, the start-up of BPA plant is relatively stable, and the market supply is fair. In the short term, the BPA market will continue to maintain a narrow trend and push up. However, due to the insufficient benefits, it is difficult to continue to rise in the future. The business society expects that the BPA market in East China will maintain at 9950-10100 yuan / ton, and long-term attention will be paid to the start-up of downstream plants.

Data shows that the natural rubber commodity index on May 22 was 29.68, down 0.48 points from yesterday, 70.32% from the highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-01), and 8.80% higher than the lowest point of 27.28 on April 02, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

As shown in the figure above, from the beginning of January to may 2020, the overall market of natural rubber shows a downward trend first and then a small upward trend, and the price at the end of March and the beginning of April is a phased bottom. According to the data of natural rubber (standard 1) in East China monitored by the business association, the mainstream price of Baodao whole milk on January 1, 2020 is about 12130 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price on April 2 is 9200 yuan / ton, with a drop of 24.15% since the beginning of the year. Since then, Tianjiao has been shaking upward until May 20, 10170 yuan / ton, with a rebound of 10.54%. In the first and middle of May, the whole price of Tianjiao fluctuated upward. The price of 9600 yuan / ton on the first day is also the lowest since this month. The price of 10170 yuan / ton on the 20th, the highest since this month, rebounded by 5.94%.

Factor analysis:

Supply: China: the rubber cutting in the production area is still advancing slowly. Factors such as weather drought, insect disease and low rubber price caused by poor demand are concentrated on rubber farmers, resulting in weak willingness to cut rubber, small production of new rubber, local gap of new rubber and 19 year rubber in Banna production area, and price adjustment. Southeast Asia: it is expected that the drought in Southeast Asia will be alleviated to some extent in June, and the rubber cutting will be resumed gradually at that time, but the rubber volume caused by the drought will be delayed by about one month compared with that in previous years; at the same time, although the current rubber price is at a low price, but for the difficult economy during the epidemic period, the rubber agricultural rubber cutting can still maintain a relatively stable income, so the industry is expected to be around the middle and late June The rubber production in Southeast Asia will be significantly improved. Therefore, at present, the amount of new rubber at home and abroad has little impact on the market supply and more inventory consumption.

Inventory: data shows that as of May 22, the natural rubber inventory of the previous period was 239395 tons, and the warehouse receipt was 234550 tons, 80 tons and 160 tons less than last week respectively; from the perspective of the rubber inventory pressure of the exchange, the total latex and No. 20 rubber inventory decreased slightly. It is reported that the rubber stock in Qingdao free trade zone is at a high level and under heavy pressure. The turnover of USD glue Market in Qingdao Free Trade Zone improved slightly, and the price of Baodao whole milk was 10000 yuan / ton. The short-term domestic supply of new rubber is small, the overall domestic inventory is high, and the contradiction between supply and demand is still large.

Demand: tire enterprises: under the current situation, the operating rate of domestic and foreign tire enterprises is still at a low level. As of May 14, the operating rate of domestic semi steel tire manufacturers was 50.93%, up 23.27% month on month, down 14.78% year on year; the operating rate of all steel tire manufacturers was 69.61%, up 12.30% month on month, down 1.41% year on year. From the perspective of market reaction, domestic traders generally feel that the volume of rubber raw material transactions this month is far behind that of March and April, with a large gap. Automobile: according to the data of China Automobile Association, in April, China’s automobile production and sales were 2.012 million and 2.07 million respectively, up 46.6% and 43.5% on a month on month basis, up 2.3% and 4.4% on a year-on-year basis, respectively, and the automobile sales volume ended the decline for 21 consecutive months. However, as one of the most important auto parts, the output of tires has not gone out of the decline path. In April, the output of domestic rubber tires was 66.612 million, down 12.2% year-on-year; from January to April, the cumulative output was 218.072 million, down 17.4% year-on-year. In terms of tire export, according to the statistics of Qingdao Customs, in the first four months, Shandong’s foreign trade export amounted to 337.42 billion yuan, an increase of 0.9% from a decrease of 4.5% in the first quarter; tire export fell by 17% month on month, of which tire export fell by 8.4% in the first quarter.

Macro policy: first of all, the government work report pointed out that it is expected to reduce the new burden for enterprises by more than 2.5 trillion yuan in the whole year. This year, we will continue to implement systems such as the reduction of value-added tax rate and enterprise endowment insurance rate, and increase tax cuts and reduce fees by about 500 billion yuan. In the early stage, the policy of tax reduction and fee reduction due before June was introduced, including exemption from the payment of small and medium-sized enterprises’ endowment insurance, unemployment insurance and work-related injury insurance units, reduction of small-scale taxpayers’ value-added tax, exemption from value-added tax on public transport, catering and accommodation, tourism and entertainment, culture and sports and other services, reduction of Civil Aviation Development Fund and port construction fees, and the implementation period was all extended to the end of this year. The payment of income tax for small and micro enterprises and individual businesses will be postponed to next year. It is expected to reduce the burden for enterprises by more than 2.5 trillion yuan in the whole year. Secondly, the government work report said that the loan extension policy for small and medium-sized micro enterprises should be extended to the end of March next year, the loan extension for inclusive small and micro enterprises should be extended to the full extent, and the loan negotiation for other difficult enterprises should be extended. The industry believes that the epidemic has disrupted the normal production and operation order of the rubber tire industry, the government work report has given the industry enterprises “reassurance”, the implementation of various tax preferential policies, and the use of “real gold and silver” to support the resumption of production and help the enterprise development.

Future forecast:

According to the analysis of the business club, the national two sessions and active fiscal policy may directly boost the nominal GDP growth of the whole year by 3-5 percentage points, which is conducive to the better resumption of production of rubber enterprises. From the perspective of domestic and international cutting situation, the current output is very small, which is not enough to impact the market. On the contrary, the prices in some regions with tight supply are very strong. From the perspective of downstream situation, tire enterprises will gradually benefit from favorable policies, with increased start-up, and the demand is expected to increase, but it also depends on the demand pulling situation of the consumer market; in some foreign regions, regardless of the epidemic situation, the “recovery of economy” may lead to demand. In the future, it mainly depends on the consumption stimulus and the play of the favorable role of policies. In June, the production of new rubber will directly affect the trend of Tianjiao. If the production and inventory increase, Tianjiao market may continue to be under pressure. However, in the short term, if a large number of new rubber is still not cut, Tianjiao market may have a wave of short-term strength on the premise that the stimulus plays an obvious role first.