The mainstream transaction price of melamine in this week’s market is at a relatively low level, with weak upward momentum, and even some regions or manufacturers’ quotations still have a bearish trend. As of June 11th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5900.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.84% compared to the beginning of this month (5950.00 yuan/ton).
| Melamine |
Demand side:
Downstream industries such as sheet metal, coatings, and molded plastics have been affected by the sluggish real estate market, resulting in insufficient operating rates and continued weak demand for melamine procurement. There is no significant improvement in terminal consumption, which is transmitted to the raw material end. The demand in overseas markets is also flat, with limited new orders, making it difficult to effectively digest domestic supply. International competitive pressure may also exist.
Cost side:
The price of the main raw material urea has also been in a downward trend recently. The decline in urea prices has not only reduced the production cost of melamine, but also weakened the cost support for melamine prices, providing space for price decline. As of June 11th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1821.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.72% compared to the beginning of this month (1892.00 yuan/ton).
Supply side:
Although some manufacturers may reduce their load due to losses or maintenance, the overall operating rate of the industry has not experienced a large-scale, long-term decline, and the market supply is relatively stable or even abundant. The supply pressure has not been effectively alleviated. The accumulated social or manufacturer inventory in the early stage still needs time to be digested.
Market performance:
The mentality of buying up rather than buying down dominates, and downstream users and traders have a strong wait-and-see attitude. They are cautious when entering the market for procurement and tend to purchase small orders according to demand, lacking centralized and large-scale replenishment needs. The strong bearish expectation in the market further suppressed trading activity.
Overall, without sudden positive stimuli (such as unexpected shutdowns of major facilities, strong policy incentives, significant increases in export orders, etc.), the melamine market is likely to continue to operate at a low level in the short term, with prices mainly fluctuating weakly and extremely limited upward space. It cannot be ruled out that there may still be slight downturns in certain periods or regions due to shipment pressure.
| http://www.lubonchem.com/ |