Introduction: Cyclohexanone is an important intermediate in organic synthesis. The greatest use of cyclohexanone is in the production of caprolactam and adipic acid, which are important monomers in the production of nylon, nylon 66, and other synthetic resins. In the downstream distribution of cyclohexanone, the chemical fiber industry accounts for over 90% of the total production.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
Firstly, let’s review the trend of the cyclohexanone market in 2023. The domestic cyclohexanone market experienced severe fluctuations in 2023, with an overall “M” shaped price curve. The average price at the beginning of the year was 9210 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 9450 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 2.61%. From the price trend chart of cyclohexanone, it can be seen that the highest point of cyclohexanone price in 2023 occurred in September, with a highest price of 10321 yuan/ton. The lowest point of cyclohexanone price occurred in early June, with a lowest price of 7994 yuan/ton and a maximum amplitude of 29.11%.
In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%, and the market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price trend of cyclohexanone. The cyclohexanone plant is mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The market trend of caprolactam also has a significant impact on the market trend of cyclohexanone. From the comparison chart of the price trends of pure benzene cyclohexanone and cyclohexanone caprolactam in Business Society, it can be seen that the market trend of cyclohexanone in 2023 is roughly the same as that of pure benzene and caprolactam.
There were two significant fluctuations in the cyclohexanone market in 2023. The first was a significant decline that began in mid May, with a decline of 15.18%. The main reason is the weak decline of raw material pure benzene, lack of cost support, increased supply of market goods, intensified industry competition, and weak downstream demand, strong resistance to high prices. Manufacturers are offering discounts to sell, resulting in a decline in transactions. Another time was a significant rebound from early July to mid September, with an increase of 27.95%. The main reason is that the market price of raw material pure benzene continues to rise, with strong cost support. The supply of cyclohexanone products is relatively low. Driven by costs, manufacturers are reluctant to sell at low prices and actively explore price increases. As prices rise downstream, the prices of the entire industry chain products have increased to varying degrees. From this, it can be seen that the market trend of pure benzene is influenced by the cyclohexanone market. In 2024, it is necessary to closely monitor the price trends of pure benzene and caprolactam.
In terms of imports and exports, according to customs data statistics, the overall export volume of cyclohexanone from China showed an increasing trend from 2018 to 2023. The increase in cyclohexanone exports in recent years is mainly due to the continuous increase in domestic cyclohexanone production capacity supply, and the supply growth rate is significantly faster than the demand growth rate. On the other hand, in the context of a shift in supply and demand patterns, the domestic price of cyclohexanone has led to a reduction in industry profits and a relative advantage in price. Therefore, the overall trend of cyclohexanone exports is increasing. Affected by weak global demand in 2023, overseas facilities are mostly supporting and production is stable. The downstream solvent market demand is average, and the export of cyclohexanone has decreased to a certain extent. In 2024, it is still necessary to pay more attention to the supply situation of domestic and foreign enterprises.
According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 7.14 million tons, and the overall operating load of the industry is currently around 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The main production enterprises have limited product supply due to equipment maintenance. In 2024, domestic cyclohexanone production still needs to pay more attention to industry operating rate information.
In the future, the main influencing factors on the price of cyclohexanone are upstream and downstream products and industry operations. In 2024, it is necessary to pay more attention to the traditional peak season of “Golden Three Silver Four” and “Golden Nine Silver Ten”, as well as the trend of raw material pure benzene under the influence of crude oil market.
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