The petroleum coke market was first depressed and then increased (3.6-3.12)

1、 Price data

 

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According to the bulk list data of the Business News Agency, the price of petroleum coke from local refiners fell and rebounded this week. The average price of Shandong market on March 12 was 2701.50 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with the price of 2701.50 yuan/ton on March 6.

 

On March 12, the petroleum coke commodity index was 210.12, which was the same as yesterday, down 48.59% from the cycle’s highest point of 408.70 (2022-05-11), and up 214.13% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to September 30, 2012 to now)

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

The price of petroleum coke in refineries rose and fell in a mixed way this week. The local refineries actively arranged stocks, and the trading volume was average. The downstream enterprises were cautious about receiving goods. HSBC Petrochemical delayed the shutdown of coking unit for maintenance from March 10, and the refinery temporarily sold inventory.

 

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On the one hand, due to the strong economic data, the Federal Reserve is likely to need to raise interest rates more sharply than expected to suppress inflation. The strong implication of Powell’s speech increased the probability that the market would raise the terminal interest rate at the upcoming meeting of the Federal Reserve on March 21-22. Investors believed that the possibility of raising the interest rate by 50 basis points at the meeting rose to more than 70%, which affected the oil market. On the other hand, the demand side still has a positive impact from China’s optimistic demand expectations. At the same time, many institutions also raised their expectations for China’s economic growth. The Secretary-General of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said that China’s oil demand will increase by 500000 to 600000 barrels per day in 2023, and the increase in demand in Asia will make the price of crude oil market recover.

 

The price of calcined coke fell this week; Silicon metal market declined slightly; The downstream electrolytic aluminum price went down. As of March 12, the price was 18243.33 yuan/ton; Downstream aluminum carbon enterprises mainly purchase according to demand, and are cautious in receiving goods.

 

According to the petroleum coke analyst of Business News, the international crude oil fell this week, and the cost support of petroleum coke was limited; At present, the inventory of petroleum coke in domestic ports has declined, but it is still at a high level as a whole, with sufficient market supply and strong wait-and-see sentiment; Local refining enterprises actively de-stock, and downstream carbon enterprises mainly purchase on demand. It is expected that petroleum coke will be mainly refined in the near future.

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