Crude oil plummeting, fuel oil 180CST market weak, wait and see (3.15-3.19)

As of March 19, the average 180CST price of domestic fuel oil was 4775.00 yuan / ton (including tax), down 1.04% from 4825.00 yuan / ton on March 15, according to the data of business news agency.

 

On March 19, the fuel oil commodity index was 96.71, unchanged from yesterday, down 16.56% from 115.91 (October 17, 2018), the highest point in the cycle, and up 109.87% from 46.08, the lowest point on August 15, 2016. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

 

Domestic marine oil raw materials have limited support for fuel oil 180CST. The average price of Fukuang shale oil in the latest bidding on March 16 was 3436 yuan / T, down 130 yuan / T. according to the business news agency, as of March 19, the self provided low sulfur quotation of fuel oil 180CST in Zhoushan area was 4600 yuan / T, the self provided low sulfur quotation of fuel oil 120cst was 4700 yuan / T, and the self provided low sulfur quotation of fuel oil 180CST in Shanghai area was 4850 yuan / T, the self provided low sulfur quotation of fuel oil 120cs The price is 4950 yuan / ton.

 

This week, the international crude oil price plummeted, and the support for fuel oil price was limited. According to business news agency monitoring, oil prices have been falling for five consecutive trading days. At the macro level, due to the release of water from the Federal Reserve and central banks, inflation expectations continued to rise, US bond yields rose, and the prices of risky assets such as stock markets and commodities were suppressed. On Thursday, the market’s expectation of inflation intensified and the tide of US debt selling hit. The yield of 10-year US debt rose to more than 1.7% for the first time in 14 months. The strengthening of the US dollar led to the decline of the stock index and the sharp drop of oil price. In addition, the pace of global economic recovery was once again dragged down by the epidemic. This time, it mainly came from the European region. The European vaccination process was blocked, which led to the expectation of slower economic recovery, Oil prices are under pressure. WTI and Brent crude oil fell to two-week lows one after another. WTI closed below US $60. WTI crude oil hit the biggest one-day decline in the second half of the year.

 

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory has increased, with limited support for fuel oil. It is understood that the Singapore enterprise development board (ESG): as of March 17, Singapore’s inventory of residual fuel oil (excluding asphalt), including fuel oil and low sulfur waxy residual oil, increased by 51000 barrels to a three-month high of 22.849 million barrels.

 

Future forecast: business community energy analysts believe that a sharp drop in crude oil may lead to a downward trend in raw material prices. The fuel oil market is mainly on the lookout, and some enterprises will set prices next week. At present, the downstream demand of the ship fuel market is light, and the terminal mainly purchases on demand, while the downstream replenishment is cautious. Fuel oil prices are expected to decline next week.

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