The supply and demand of n-propanol in China maintain stable operation as a whole

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of July 30, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol with packaging in mainstream areas was around 11900 yuan / ton, which was basically stable compared with the price on the first day of this month; compared with the price on June 1, the average price increased by 733 yuan / ton, or 6.57%. On July 29, the n-propanol commodity index was 100.63, flat with yesterday, down 0.59% from 101.23 (December 12, 2013), and 27.62% higher than the lowest point of 78.85 on November 05, 2015. (Note: period refers to December 1, 2013 to now)


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Raw material support demand can maintain stable operation of n-propanol


At the end of the month, the domestic n-propanol market was stable, and some dealers adjusted their prices according to the narrow inventory. At present, the downstream demand is fair, the overall inventory of n-propanol is low, the market mentality is good, and the business offer is mainly stable. According to the price monitoring data of the business agency, on July 30, the ex factory price of n-propanol purified water in Shandong was around 10500-11000 yuan / ton, the rare high quotation was 11500 yuan / ton, and the barreled packaging was around 11300-11600 yuan / ton; the bulk water in Nanjing was around 10800-11100 yuan / ton. In Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd., the normal operation of n-propanol production unit was normal, and n-propanol was offered to the public for 11000 yuan / T (bulk water), and the price was the same as that at the beginning of the month. Dealers in different regions still have reservation on the price. It is not easy to monitor the price. As a result, the specific negotiation situation may be different. There are differences in each region. The actual negotiation is the main one. The future market needs to wait and see the change of raw material price and shipment.


In terms of raw materials, July is coming to an end. On the end of the month, the ethylene market declined after a small rise, and the overall market fell compared with the beginning of the month, but it was still at a high level compared with the market in the second quarter, which gave support to the cost of n-propanol. At present, on the 28th, the US ethylene market FD US Gulf quoted us $339-357 / T. in recent years, the US ethylene market is mainly volatile consolidation, and the market demand has improved. In the later period, the market change is mainly affected by the small rise of upstream crude oil, which may be dominated by the rise. The market of ethylene in Asia is stable, CFR Northeast Asia offers 795-805 US dollars / ton, CFR Southeast Asia offers 710-720 US dollars / ton, the demand is fair.


In terms of process, there are mainly three methods of n-propanol production, i.e. ethylene carbonyl synthesis, allyl alcohol hydrogenation and isopropanol recovery.


Ethylene carbonyl synthesis method: this process uses ethylene, syngas and hydrogen as raw materials to produce propionaldehyde by low pressure carbonylation synthesis process, and then produces n-propanol by gas phase hydrogenation process, which is the mainstream production process of n-propanol at present.


Allyl alcohol hydrogenation method: allyl alcohol is hydroformylated to form 4-hydroxybutyraldehyde, and then hydrogenated to 1,4-butanediol and by-product n-propanol. The production capacity of n-propanol by this method is small.


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Isopropanol recovery method: when propylene is directly hydrated to prepare isopropanol, the by-product is n-propanol, from which n-propanol is recovered. This method is similar to allyl alcohol hydrogenation method, and is also a by-product n-propanol, but the n-propanol recovered by this method is less and the production capacity is smaller.


Each of the three production technologies has its own advantages and disadvantages. The ethylene carbonyl synthesis method is the most advanced production technology of n-propanol in the world, and it is also the mainstream production technology in the world. In fact, the other two methods are in essence n-propanol from other main products, so the production capacity is small and it is not suitable for large-scale industrialization.


The supply and demand is relatively stable, and then the trend is stable


At present, the supply and demand of domestic n-propanol market is relatively balanced, the production and operation are normal, and the cost of domestic n-propanol is improved. It is expected that the market fluctuation will be limited in the short term. The analysts of the n-propanol industry in the business community believe that the domestic n-propanol price is mainly stable in the near future, and the quotation of the secondary market may be adjusted in a narrow range. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the cost of raw materials and the shipping situation.

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