In recent years, due to the strong demand of polyester industry, the demand for ethylene glycol in the domestic market has maintained a rapid growth trend, thus promoting the increase of ethylene glycol production capacity. In recent years, many large-scale ethylene glycol production plants have been built and put into operation in China. With the continuous increase of ethylene glycol production capacity in China, the output is also increasing.
Although the production capacity and output of ethylene glycol in China have increased rapidly, it still can not meet the growing market demand of domestic polyester and so on. A large number of imports are needed every year, and the import volume is increasing year by year. At present, China’s ethylene glycol products are mainly used in the production of polyester, antifreeze liquid and adhesives, paint solvents, cold-resistant lubricants, surfactants and polyester polyols. Among them, polyester is the main consumption area of ethylene glycol in China, and its consumption accounts for 94.0% of the total domestic consumption. The other 6.0% is used for antifreeze, adhesives, paint solvents, cold-resistant lubricants, surfactants and polyester polyols.
In recent years, the production of polyester (including polyester fiber, polyester resin and film) has developed rapidly in China. In 2010, the production of polyester will reach 19 million tons, and the demand for ethylene glycol will reach 6.65 million tons. With the consumption of antifreeze and other aspects, it is expected that the total demand for ethylene glycol in China will continue to grow at a high speed.
The capacity of domestic ethylene plant is about 6.46 million tons, and the start-up rate of the plant is 70.4%, which is 1.8 percentage points lower than the end of August and 1.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The capacity of the coal-based ethylene glycol plant is about 4.47 million tons, and the start-up rate of the plant is 51.6%, which is 1.8 percentage points higher than that at the end of August.
On the whole, the domestic ethylene glycol production enterprises are showing losses in varying degrees, the start-up rate of ethylene plant is declining, and the start-up rate of coal-based ethylene glycol plant is reduced to 50%.
According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of ethylene glycol dropped sharply in June, and the average price of ethylene glycol also decreased, showing weak demand as a whole.
As for port inventory, data show that as of July 29, the inventory of ethylene glycol ports in eastern China was about 921.5 million tons, down 218,000 tons from the end of last month, a 19% annualized decline, and an increase of 48% over the same period last year. Among them, Zhangjiagang’s inventory was 6605 tons, down 17,000 tons from the end of last month, an increase of 2%; Taiyuan’s inventory was 93,000 tons, down 40,000 tons from last month; Ningbo’s inventory was 87,000 tons, down 0.1 million tons from last month; Jiangyin’s inventory was 20,000 tons, down 38,000 tons from last month; Shanghai and Changshu’s inventory was 91,000 tons, down 36,000 tons from last month. Tons.
In summary, the domestic ethylene glycol production enterprises show losses, the start-up rate of ethylene plant has fallen, the start-up rate of coal-based ethylene glycol plant has dropped to about 50%, and the domestic supply has been reduced. The stock of ethylene glycol port in East China is about 921,500 tons, and the stock keeps decreasing. Downstream polyester start-up high drop, weaving enterprises also began to decline, polyester and grey fabric inventory at a high level, facing the pressure of de-inventory, polyester production and marketing at the beginning of the month is relatively cold, to the end of the month production and marketing gradually warmed up. Ethylene glycol futures prices gradually rebounded after bottoming in the middle of the month, and are expected to enter a strong trend until the early downstream inventory is digested. The operational strategies are as follows:
Transaction contract: Ethylene glycol 2001.
Trading Direction: Buy.
It is planned to enter the venue in two batches, occupying 40%-60% of the total capital and buying 500-600 hands.
First entry interval: 4620 – 4680 yuan / ton, target price: 4720 – 5480 yuan / ton.
Stop loss price: 4320-4580 yuan/ton, entry position 300-400 hands, occupying 30-40% of capital.
Risk factors requiring attention:
1. Port stocks have increased substantially.
2. Demand for polyester decreased more than expected.
3. The macro atmosphere is tense.