According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, starting from September 1st, the hydrogen peroxide market has weakened, with a main decline. On September 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 703 yuan/ton, and on September 4th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.9% in price.

Negative pressure on hydrogen peroxide market weakens
Starting from September, the terminal demand in the printing and papermaking industry has declined, and some manufacturers of hydrogen peroxide are still stopping for maintenance. The supply pressure has decreased, and there is a long short game, resulting in weak hydrogen peroxide prices. As of September 4th, the average price in the domestic market has dropped to around 690 yuan/ton. The market transactions are average and the market is declining.
The hydrogen peroxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in mid September, the demand for terminal printing and papermaking industry will be sluggish, and the pressure on hydrogen peroxide supply will still exist, resulting in a weak market in the future.

Under the support of tight supply, the melamine market has indeed shown a trend of rebounding from decline to rise. As of September 2nd, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5675.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.22% compared to the beginning of this month (5662.50 yuan/ton).

1、 Price trend:
The price trend of melamine in August can be described as fluctuating. The domestic melamine market fluctuated in July.
Early October: The market continued the weakness of July, and prices were under pressure at one point.
Mid month: There was a noticeable rebound. This is mainly due to the sharp contraction of the supply side: affected by the continuous high temperature weather, the equipment in major production areas such as Sichuan and Anhui passively reduced load, and the overall load rate of the industry fell to about 40% at one point (mid August data). The tight supply has led to sustained low inventory in the market, and some manufacturers have adopted a strategy of controlling quantity and accepting orders, driving prices to rise accordingly.
Late to present: Market sentiment tends to be cautious, and prices have entered a stable consolidation stage. With the restart of some maintenance facilities, the capacity utilization rate has significantly rebounded from its low point (as of August 28th, the capacity utilization rate has risen to 58.5%), and the increase in supply has eased the previous tense situation. At the same time, there has been no strong recovery on the demand side, resulting in a lack of sustained upward momentum for prices and an overall trend towards stability.
2、 Supply side:
The changes in the melamine market in August were mainly driven by changes in the supply side. During the month, the industry’s operating rate plummeted to 44.32% (the lowest level in nearly three years), and daily production decreased significantly by over 30%. This is the most core factor driving the price to stop falling and rise again. Subsequently, with the planned restart of some maintenance facilities, the capacity utilization rate rebounded from a low level, and the supply side’s support for prices weakened to some extent.
3、 Demand side:
The demand side has not provided strong upward momentum for prices:
In terms of domestic demand: Although the demand for the main downstream board industry has slightly rebounded, it is still constrained by the sluggish real estate industry, and the overall recovery is limited.
In terms of foreign trade, the export market has shown lackluster performance, with limited new orders. Although the cumulative export volume from January to May was 263100 tons, a slight increase of 0.34% year-on-year, the adjustment of international tariff policies has also affected exports.
Downstream procurement should be cautious and focus on on-demand procurement.
4、 Cost side:
Weakening of raw material urea prices: As the core raw material of melamine, urea prices showed an overall downward trend throughout August. As of September 2nd, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1707.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29% compared to the beginning of this month (1712.50 yuan/ton). The decline in urea prices has weakened the cost support for melamine.
Despite the decline in raw material prices, the rebound in melamine prices is limited, and the industry as a whole is still in a loss making state. As of August 28th, the production profit margin was -1.38%, although slightly narrowed from the previous week’s -1.40%, it did not fundamentally improve. The operational pressure on enterprises remains significant.
5、 Future prospects
For the melamine market in September, it is expected to show a pattern of stable to weak and fluctuating consolidation:
Supply side: Capacity utilization is expected to continue to rise slightly. If the operating rate continues to recover, market supply will increase, which may suppress prices.

On the demand side, the traditional peak consumption season of “golden September and silver October” is the biggest expectation of the market. If the demand for downstream industries such as sheet metal can increase as scheduled, it will become a key driving force for price increases. On the contrary, if the demand recovery falls short of expectations, the market will find it difficult to shake off the weak trend.
Cost side: Urea prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern within a narrow range, and the cost impact on melamine may be relatively neutral.
In summary, the melamine market achieved a rebound in August due to the tightening of supply beyond expectations. But with the gradual recovery of supply and the lackluster performance on the demand side, the market’s upward momentum weakened and entered a stage of stable consolidation. Whether the market can break out of the consolidation pattern in September largely depends on whether the demand increment brought by the traditional peak season of “Golden September and Silver October” can arrive as scheduled. If demand can be effectively released, prices are expected to gain new upward momentum; If demand continues to be weak, the market will find it difficult to shake off a weak and volatile trend.

August has ended, and as of the end of the month, the domestic acrylonitrile market price has been fluctuating between 7800-8200 yuan/ton for three months. Overall, the acrylonitrile industry is still showing a weak balance this month, with controllable inventory and fluctuating market prices.

Both the supply and demand sides showed growth during the month, with the acrylonitrile and downstream ABS industries focusing on capacity expansion, while the downstream acrylic fiber industry maintained a high level of production. As of the end of the month, one line of Jilin Petrochemical’s 260000 ton new plant has been stably produced, and the total effective production capacity of acrylonitrile in China has reached 5.319 million tons per year; The second 75000 tons/year ABS production line in Shandong has achieved stable production, and the ABS production capacity base has been adjusted to 10.23 million tons.
At the same time, due to the maintenance and active reduction of production in acrylonitrile factories, the supply increment has been controlled, but the supply-demand gap has increased first and then decreased.
However, the current acrylonitrile industry still has overcapacity. According to current demand data calculations, it is estimated that the domestic consumption and total export volume for the whole year of 2025 may still be less than 4 million tons. This means that the premise for the acrylonitrile market to maintain a weak balance is still to actively control the supply side, and the industry’s capacity utilization rate must be maintained at around 75% or below.
In addition, long-term production losses have forced acrylonitrile factories to voluntarily reduce production. Since 2025, major factories in East China such as Sinopec and Shanghai Saike have maintained low load operation at around 50-70%. Although Zhenhai Refining and Chemical has emerged as a new production capacity, it has benefited from favorable geographical conditions in its consumption concentration area, and its production and sales have been relatively stable since its launch. In contrast, Sinochem Quanzhou has halved its operation.
Next month, it is expected that the supply-demand gap will further narrow due to ongoing maintenance of facilities in the northern region and no significant increase in supply plans in the eastern region. At the same time, downstream consumption may improve during the traditional peak season. However, due to subjective adjustments in the supply side, variables still exist, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile industry will remain in a weak equilibrium state. On this basis, the market stalemate will also continue.

The game between macro expectations and weak fundamentals, in August, domestic nickel prices showed an overall volatile pattern, with prices rising first and then falling, repeatedly fluctuating and falling back. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, on August 29th, spot electrolytic nickel was reported at 122516 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 1.13% for the whole month, but still a year-on-year decrease of 6.97%. Market long and short factors are intertwined, with macroeconomic policy expectations and loose liquidity providing support, while high inventory and weak actual demand limit the upward space for prices.

1、 Price Trend Review
At the beginning of the month (8.1-8.8): Nickel prices first rose and then remained stagnant, with spot prices reported at 122316 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.96%. Market sentiment is influenced by macroeconomic policy expectations, but lacks clear drivers of fundamentals.
Mid month (8.9-8.15): Nickel prices surged and fell back, reaching 121850 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.58%. At the beginning of the week, the expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the temporary suspension of tariffs between China and the United States pushed up the price, but high inventory and weak demand for stainless steel led to a decline.
At the end of the month (8.16-8.29), nickel prices fluctuated and weakened before rebounding, ultimately reaching 122516 yuan/ton. Powell’s dovish remarks, favorable domestic policies, and the weakening of the US dollar jointly drove a rebound, but the demand side still showed weakness.
2、 Macro factors: intertwining long and short, expectations dominate
Overseas macro environment:
The weak economic data in the United States, significantly lower than expected non farm employment, rising unemployment rate, and strengthened expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates (the market expects a 25 basis point rate cut in September and December respectively).
The fluctuation of the US dollar index has intensified, rising first and then falling, affecting the pressure and rebound of nickel prices.
The United States has imposed tariffs on multiple countries, escalated global trade frictions and met with Russia, eased geopolitical tensions, and alternately affected market sentiment.
Domestic policy support:
Policies such as trade in of consumer goods and equipment renewal continued to advance, and the Ministry of Finance allocated 69 billion yuan of special treasury bond funds.
The State Council meeting emphasized the expansion of domestic demand, and the Ministry of Commerce proposed measures to promote service exports and boost market confidence.
The industrial data is stable, with a year-on-year increase of 5.7% in the added value of industries above designated size in July, but the direct impact on nickel prices is limited.
3、 Supply and demand fundamentals: high inventory and weak demand suppress prices
Supply side:
Global nickel inventories remain high, with LME inventories increasing to 209676 tons and Shanghai nickel inventories increasing to 21905 tons, indicating an unchanged pattern of oversupply.
The price of nickel ore in Indonesia has slightly increased, while the price of low-grade ore in the Philippines has decreased due to an increase in shipping volume.
Demand side:
Stainless steel field: Production in August increased by 2.29% month on month, but still decreased by 1.64% year-on-year, with slow destocking and cautious terminal procurement. On August 29th, the benchmark price of stainless steel in Shengyi Society was 13075.00 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.04% from early August, indicating a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.
In the field of new energy, the production of ternary precursors increased by 5.71% month on month, but the growth rate is expected to slow down to 5.4% in August, and the marginal demand growth has weakened. The spot market sees an increase in demand purchases at low prices, but overall transactions are mainly wait-and-see, with insufficient sustainability.
4、 Future prospects

In the short term, nickel prices will still be affected by both macro expectations and weak fundamentals
Supporting factors: The expected increase in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the weakening of the US dollar, the continued strength of domestic policies, and the approaching traditional peak season of “Golden September and Silver October” may bring bottom support and temporary rebound.
Suppressing factors: high global inventory, weak demand for stainless steel, slowing growth in new energy, and uncertainty in trade frictions will limit the upward space for prices.
Overall judgment: Nickel prices are expected to continue their volatile pattern, and breakthroughs will depend on clearer policy signals or fundamental improvements, such as inventory depletion and significant demand recovery.