August has ended, and as of the end of the month, the domestic acrylonitrile market price has been fluctuating between 7800-8200 yuan/ton for three months. Overall, the acrylonitrile industry is still showing a weak balance this month, with controllable inventory and fluctuating market prices.
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Both the supply and demand sides showed growth during the month, with the acrylonitrile and downstream ABS industries focusing on capacity expansion, while the downstream acrylic fiber industry maintained a high level of production. As of the end of the month, one line of Jilin Petrochemical’s 260000 ton new plant has been stably produced, and the total effective production capacity of acrylonitrile in China has reached 5.319 million tons per year; The second 75000 tons/year ABS production line in Shandong has achieved stable production, and the ABS production capacity base has been adjusted to 10.23 million tons.
At the same time, due to the maintenance and active reduction of production in acrylonitrile factories, the supply increment has been controlled, but the supply-demand gap has increased first and then decreased.
However, the current acrylonitrile industry still has overcapacity. According to current demand data calculations, it is estimated that the domestic consumption and total export volume for the whole year of 2025 may still be less than 4 million tons. This means that the premise for the acrylonitrile market to maintain a weak balance is still to actively control the supply side, and the industry’s capacity utilization rate must be maintained at around 75% or below.
In addition, long-term production losses have forced acrylonitrile factories to voluntarily reduce production. Since 2025, major factories in East China such as Sinopec and Shanghai Saike have maintained low load operation at around 50-70%. Although Zhenhai Refining and Chemical has emerged as a new production capacity, it has benefited from favorable geographical conditions in its consumption concentration area, and its production and sales have been relatively stable since its launch. In contrast, Sinochem Quanzhou has halved its operation.
Next month, it is expected that the supply-demand gap will further narrow due to ongoing maintenance of facilities in the northern region and no significant increase in supply plans in the eastern region. At the same time, downstream consumption may improve during the traditional peak season. However, due to subjective adjustments in the supply side, variables still exist, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile industry will remain in a weak equilibrium state. On this basis, the market stalemate will also continue.
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