According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on July 7th, the polyester filament market continued its promotion mode, and prices showed an overall downward trend. POY (150D/48F), a mainstream polyester filament factory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, quoted prices between 6750-7050 yuan/ton, DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) between 8000-8400 yuan/ton, and FDY (150D/96F) between 7050-7300 yuan/ton.

Entering July, the terminal textile market entered the traditional off-season of demand, with a reduction in foreign trade orders. The overall production and sales rate of polyester filament was 30% -40%, a decrease of 10% compared to the average production and sales rate at the end of June. At the beginning of July, the inventory of polyester filament increased slightly, and the industry average inventory level was around 24 days, an increase of 18% compared to the end of June. Among them, POY increased significantly, rising 4-5 days compared to the end of June. Under the imbalance of supply and demand, the polyester filament market continues to be weak.
From the supply side, the previous shutdown reduction devices have gradually restarted and heated up. Currently, the average capacity utilization rate of the polyester filament industry has increased to over 90%, and the supply has significantly increased. On the demand side, the terminal demand is sluggish, the purchasing enthusiasm of users is not high, the inventory of conventional fabrics is high, and the production enthusiasm of textile production enterprises is not high, continuing to reduce negative pressure and avoid risks. In addition, the high temperature weather has also affected the normal operation of the downstream elastic textile industry, further suppressing the demand for polyester filament.
Business Society believes that today’s polyester filament market continues to bottom out under the triple pressure of cost collapse, high inventory, and off-season demand, and structural opportunities only exist in high-end segmented varieties. The short-term decline has not stopped, and prices are running weakly.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province rose slightly this week (6.30-7.4), with an average market price of 16175 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 16250 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.46%.

Starting from July this week, magnesium prices have remained stable and rebounded, with a continuous upward trend during the week and a stalemate over the weekend, resulting in a slight decline in prices.
Supply and demand side
On the supply side, due to the advantage of small spot inventory, factories continue to maintain a willingness to raise prices, and low-priced goods are extremely scarce in the market. Some companies have explicitly stated that they will not ship when the price is below 16200 yuan/ton, and choose to observe changes in the market situation.
On the demand side, although downstream demand has shown some signs of improvement, it still maintains a cautious procurement pace. Downstream customers and intermediaries mainly carry out small-scale replenishment operations based on rigid demand, and the overall procurement volume has achieved moderate growth this week.
Raw material end
The price of ferrosilicon remains stable and unchanged, while the price of blue charcoal remains basically stable. The coal market price shows a slight decline, and the overall cost did not show significant changes this week.
comprehensive analysis
In the near future, magnesium prices are expected to maintain a strong trend, showing small fluctuations within a narrow range, and there will be no significant price fluctuations overall.

Since the beginning of this year, the melamine market has suffered a Waterloo, with prices continuously bottoming out. As of June 30th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5875.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.26% compared to the beginning of this month (5950.00 yuan/ton), setting a new record for the lowest price of the year. Compared to the same period last year (when the highest price exceeded 7500/ton), the current price has decreased by 15.94%. In June, it fell below 6000 yuan. The core driving force behind this deep correction is undoubtedly the fundamental shift in the market supply and demand pattern.

Production cost impact
In the first half of this year, the high profit margin and stable operation of the melamine industry greatly stimulated production enthusiasm. Manufacturers have increased their operating rates, resulting in a rise in production and a significant increase in net market supply. Especially in June, social inventory has accumulated to a relatively high level. However, in sharp contrast to the hot demand on the supply side is the weakness of downstream demand. As the main consumer sector, the artificial board industry has shown a sluggish performance in the entire industry chain, and the operating rate of domestic board companies has also remained low. This makes the demand for melamine appear particularly flat.
As the core raw material of melamine, the price fluctuation of urea directly affects the market trend. The volatile decline in melamine prices in June was largely due to the cost collapse of urea – dragged down by weakened terminal demand and international oil prices. As of July 1st, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1823.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.65% compared to the beginning of last month (1892.00 yuan/ton). This not only directly lowers the production cost line of melamine, but also exacerbates the downward pressure on its price through market expectations transmission
Export is the focus of demand increment
In 2025, the cumulative monthly export of melamine from January to May will be 263100 tons (+0.34% year-on-year), with an estimated annual total of 302200 tons.
Annual average urea price predicted to be lower than the first half of the year
Preliminary judgment shows that the average price of domestic urea (Shandong small and medium-sized granules) in the second half of the year will be lower than that in the first half, and the core operating range may be between 170-2100. Market driven by stages: loose supply and demand in July and August may lead to a stepped decline; Benefiting from local production restrictions and light storage, there may be a slight rebound in September and October; At the end of the year (November December), under the influence of multiple uncertain factors (exports, light storage, gas head, macro, and unexpected events), price volatility increased and fluctuated repeatedly. Supply and demand forecast for the second half of the year
With the release of new production capacity in the second half of the year, the melamine industry’s production capacity may reach 220 tons per year by 2025.
The trend of loosening real estate policies in the second half of the year may continue, but the significant increase in incremental demand still needs to wait. Specific demand rhythm: The off-season from July to August restricts the recovery of domestic demand; After September, with the end of the off-season, melamine consumption is expected to increase.

Based on comprehensive supply and demand, the melamine market is unlikely to see a significant rebound in the second half of the year. July: The concentrated maintenance of faults supported the price increase in the first half of the month, and the market weakened in the second half with the recovery of equipment. August: Prices may remain stable under the support of major repairs in Xinjiang. September October: Benefiting from improved demand and rising prices of urea raw materials, the market is expected to rise. November December: As the domestic Spring Festival approaches, demand is decreasing, but export plans are being supported by pre production or incremental growth. The mainstream ex factory price range is expected to be between 5400-6300 yuan/ton in the second half of the year.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on July 3rd, the reference price for the domestic silicon metal # 441 market was 8850 yuan/ton. Compared to June 29th (the market price for silicon metal # 441 was 8640 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 210 yuan/ton, a 2.43% increase.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that the domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 has shown an overall upward trend this week. During the week, the spot market price of silicon metal was generally adjusted upwards, with reference to 8300-8400 yuan/ton for the 553 # market price in the East China region, with an increase of 200-300 yuan/ton during the week; The market price of Metal Silicon 441 # in the East China region is based on 8800-8900 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 300-400 yuan/ton. The market price of Metal Silicon 441 in the Huangpu Port region is based on around 8800-8900 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 200 yuan/ton. The market price of metal silicon 441 # in Tianjin area is based on 8700~8800 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 300-400 yuan/ton.
Fundamental information
In terms of supply and production: In June, the reference production of silicon metal was around 327600 tons, with an increase in production. In July, we entered a period of abundant water supply. Although a small portion of production capacity resumed in Yunnan and southwestern regions, the overall supply of silicon metal decreased due to reduced production in Xinjiang alone.
In terms of demand: Currently, the demand for metallic silicon remains mainly driven by rigid procurement, and there has been a slight increase in downstream polycrystalline silicon production, which may boost future demand.
Market analysis in the future
Currently, the trading in the metal silicon spot market is moderate, and the supply and demand transmission performance is still good. The metal silicon data analyst from Business Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon spot market will mainly operate with large stability and small fluctuations, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

In June, the domestic phenol market first rose and then fell, with a slight overall increase and a slight month on month increase in average price. According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic phenol market price was 6687 yuan/ton on June 1st and 6747 yuan/ton on June 30th, an increase of 0.9%.

In the first ten days after the Dragon Boat Festival, with the rising price of pure benzene as the raw material, traders pushed up their offer. Supported by the cost side, traders actively pushed up their offer, but the demand side was less than expected. The terminal was cautious in chasing up, and the overall increase was far less than that of pure benzene; The sharp drop in crude oil prices in the latter half of the month has dragged down the price of pure benzene, affecting downstream products and causing the market to fall again. However, considering the high monthly average price and the low pressure on contract shipments at the end of the month, there is limited room for profit margins.
In terms of equipment in June: The pre parking equipment is still in operation. The 350000 ton/year unit of Tianjin Petrochemical was shut down for 40 days and resumed operation on June 2nd. The 320000 ton/year phenol ketone unit of Yangzhou Shiyou was shut down for maintenance on June 13th, lasting about 30 days.
As of the 30th, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country are as follows:
Region./30 day quotation /June’s ups and downs
East China region / 6650./ 50
Shandong region / 6750./ 50
Surrounding areas of Yanshan Mountain / 6750./ 50
South China region / 6700./ 50
Business Society expects that Yangzhou Shiyou will resume production in terms of equipment and Zhenhai will refine products. The domestic supply is expected to increase compared to June, with an estimated monthly output of nearly 500000 tons. In terms of ports, the expected replenishment of ocean going cargo contracts will decrease, and there will be little pressure on ports. Continue to pay attention to the changes in pure benzene driven by crude oil, as the cost is increasingly affected by the phenol market. Downstream, phenolic resin is in a relatively off-season, while other industries remain stable. Overall, the phenol market is still more bearish than bullish, with a price range of 6500-6750 yuan/ton.

In the first half of 2025, the domestic acrylonitrile market price rose and then fell, with supply changes dominating the price trend. While the equipment fluctuated, new production capacity was gradually released. At the beginning of the year, the market briefly rose sharply, and then fluctuated at a low level for a long time. During this period, the supply-demand gap between the mainland and port areas to some extent widened the price difference between the eastern and western markets, especially in mid to early April. The highest point of the first half of the year in the East China port area occurred on February 7th, at 11800-12000 yuan/ton, and in Shandong, at 11700-11900 yuan/ton. These levels reached a new high for the year and also set a new high since early January 2022.

The operating rhythm of the acrylonitrile market in the first half of the year can be simply divided into two stages: after experiencing a roller coaster like market trend in January and February, the domestic acrylonitrile market has once again become flat since March, with prices fluctuating between 8000-9000 yuan/ton for most of the time. In May, the market further froze, hovering around 8100-8500 yuan/ton with slight fluctuations.
After a sharp rise in prices in the first quarter, the domestic acrylonitrile market experienced a rapid increase in prices from January to early February. In early January, due to the unexpected shutdown of a unit in Shandong Lihua Yi, the already tight supply situation was once again exacerbated, and the listing prices of the main factories increased significantly. Moreover, with low social inventory and limited inventory held by businesses, the spot market is extremely tight, and the listing prices of large factories continue to rise. In addition, there are many downstream stocking expectations before the Spring Festival holiday, so market prices continue to rise.
During the Spring Festival period, downstream industry demand weakened. Therefore, some traders, in order to seize market share and lower sales prices, restarted the previously repaired equipment one after another. Coupled with the continuous production of new equipment by Yulong Petrochemical, the market supply pressure gradually increased. Under the influence of bearish sentiment, suppliers actively shipped, resulting in frequent low price offers in the spot market. In mid March, the decline in the acrylonitrile market slowed down, and multiple acrylonitrile production units announced production reduction plans, resulting in a decrease in supply expectations and a corresponding reduction in low price offers on site.
China’s Acrylonitrile Production Capacity Increase Plan from 2025 to 2026:
Continued low-level fluctuations in the second quarter: In April, Yulong Petrochemical and Sinochem Quanzhou’s new facilities were put into operation, and low-priced goods continued to flow out, which suppressed the mentality of industry players and led to a continuous decline in spot market quotes. Before and after the May Day holiday, the acrylonitrile market remained relatively calm, with little change in the overall transaction focus. However, as the situation of tight spot supply in some areas gradually emerged, acrylonitrile factories raised their prices one after another. In late May, Shandong Haili restarted, and after several days of stalemate, factory prices fell, and the spot market also followed suit. In June, the 400000 ton new plant of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Company was put into operation one after another, and the supply continued to increase. However, due to cost pressure and local supply variables, market trading was deadlocked.

Market forecast: Due to the release of new production capacity in Zhenhai Refining and Chemical, the overall supply of acrylonitrile is expected to increase in July, while consumption may weaken to some extent due to the traditional off-season. Among them, the operating load of the acrylamide industry may continue to decline. Therefore, the overall fundamentals of the acrylonitrile market are weak in the short term, and prices lack effective rebound momentum. However, cost drivers still exist. The increase in supply variables caused by unplanned parking and load reduction in the second half of the year will determine when the market rebounds based on the degree of supply reduction.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province continued to rise this week (6.23-6.27), with an average market price of 16050 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 16262 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.32%.

This week, the market showed a trend of first stabilizing and then strengthening, with the price center shifting upwards as the market gradually bottomed out. The psychological state of downstream buyers has also changed accordingly, and market sentiment has shifted from cautious observation to active price support. The current market as a whole is showing a stable and positive operating pattern.
Supply and demand side
On the supply side, the inventory levels of smelting enterprises have further reduced this week, which has significantly increased their willingness to raise prices. Compared to the previous period, the situation of actively lowering prices for shipments has significantly decreased. From the demand side, the wait-and-see atmosphere on the application side is still strong, and downstream buyers mostly adhere to the rigid procurement strategy, maintaining low inventory levels.
Raw material end
Coal prices continue to rise, while orchid charcoal prices remain generally stable, and silicon iron prices remain stable. Overall costs have shown a slight upward trend this week.
comprehensive analysis
In the short term, the trend of the magnesium ingot market is likely to continue its stable and strengthening trend. On the supply side, inventory is low and costs have rigid support, which provides a solid bottom support for magnesium ingot prices; However, if there is no significant improvement on the demand side, the upward potential of magnesium ingot prices may be constrained to some extent.