1、 Price trend
According to the data of the business community’s block list, aniline prices fell this week. On April 4, the price of aniline was 13000-13200 yuan / ton in Shandong and 13000-13500 yuan / ton in Nanjing. On April 11, the price of aniline was 11000-12900 yuan / ton in Shandong and 11700 yuan / ton in Nanjing. The average price was 6.15% lower than last week, 54.43% higher than the beginning of the year and 142.38% higher than the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and comment
In terms of cost, this week, pure benzene rose first and then fell with the trend of styrene, and both port inventories declined. This week, the inventory of pure benzene in East China port continued to decline, with only a few new arrivals. The port is still in the channel to the warehouse, and the domestic supply is tight. This week, Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was raised by 200 yuan / ton to 6700 yuan / ton, and the bottom support was stronger. On Sunday (April 11), the price of pure benzene was 6373-6850 yuan / ton (the average price was 6664 yuan / ton), 144 yuan / ton higher than last week, or 2.21%; 109.56% higher than the same period last year.
The price of nitric acid rose sharply this week. On Friday (April 9), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 2233.33 yuan / ton, up 8.94% over last week, 8.94% over the beginning of this month, and 44.09% over the same period last year.
Aniline prices fell this week. In the early stage, aniline was driven by downstream procurement, resulting in the rapid decline of enterprise inventory, tight spot supply in the market, soaring prices, and the rapid widening of the price difference between aniline and pure benzene. At present, the price of aniline is mainly affected by the supply side and demand side. The market of downstream polymerization MDI and rubber additives is weakening, the profit space is shrinking, the resistance to high price aniline is strong, and the demand maintains rigid demand. In addition, Jinling Dongying and Huatai aniline plants were restarted last week, and the starting load of aniline increased, and the market supply was sufficient. Under the pressure of long and short flight, aniline will go down.
3、 Future expectation
In terms of cost, the amount of pure benzene arriving at the port in the later period is still limited, but the speed of port delivery is expected to slow down. Sinopec’s inventory is tight and its price is expected to be firm. The price trend of pure benzene is still greatly affected by crude oil and styrene. With the entry of new styrene plants, the demand for pure benzene has a certain support. On the whole, the price of pure benzene will be able to move up next week. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market, domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, the impact of external market trends on the price of pure benzene.
The price difference between aniline and pure benzene is wide, the profit margin is still good, and the cost support is limited. In the near future, there is no planned overhaul of the plant, and the supply is expected to be stable. Overall, the short-term trend of aniline is mainly affected by downstream demand, and there is still room for decline. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw materials, the follow-up of downstream demand and the impact of aniline plant dynamics on aniline price.