On June 12, the PX commodity index was 58.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 42.97% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 28.21% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 12th. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation, Fuhai Created Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant put into operation, and other units operated steadily temporarily. Due to the normal supply of p-xylene in the domestic market when the new unit was put into operation, p-dimethyl benzene was supplied normally. The price trend of toluene market is stable for the time being. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On June 11, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia declined by 3 US dollars per ton. The closing price was 859-861 US dollars per ton FOB in Korea and 878-880 US dollars per ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The rising price of foreign units has a positive impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is temporarily stable.

On June 11, WTI crude oil futures market in July rose slightly to $53.27 per barrel, an increase of $0.01. Brent crude oil futures price in August was flat to $62.29 per barrel. The trend of crude oil price rose, which lost some cost support for the price of downstream petrochemical products and temporarily stabilized the price trend of paraxylene market. Recently, the textile industry has been stabilizing, PTA price has been stabilizing for 12 days. The average offer price in East China is raised near 5500-5600 yuan/ton. As of 11 days, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 88%, the polyester industry start-up rate is about 87.5%, and the downstream production and sales rate remains high. However, PTA market price shocks, and PX Market price is expected to be low in the later period.

On June 12, the rare earth index was 404 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 59.60% from the cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 49.08% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

The average price of Neodymium in rare earth metals is 4.575 million yuan per ton, dysprosium metal is 2.4 million yuan per ton and praseodymium metal is 71 million yuan per ton. The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in rare earth oxides is 357,500 yuan/ton; dysprosium oxide is 2 million yuan/ton; praseodymium oxide is 415,000 yuan/ton; and neodymium oxide is 357,000 yuan/ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys is 4.575 million yuan per ton, and the average price of dysprosium and iron alloys is 2 million yuan per ton.

Recently, the price of some rare earths has risen, the domestic rare earth market is in general, the price trend of most commodities in the rare earth market has risen, and the import of heavy rare earth dysprosium and terbium products has been limited by Myanmar’s mines. Market participants are more optimistic about the price of medium and heavy rare earths. Holders are reluctant to sell them, and the price of dysprosium and terbium series has continued to rise. Recently, the market trend of praseodymium and neodymium series products has improved, and the supply in the field is normal. Light rare earth prices have recently risen. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to environmental protection supervision in the whole country. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazard of some products, which makes environmental protection supervision stricter. Under the strict environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a general market of rare earth oxides. Recently, the rare earth market has turned to the seller’s market. The manufacturers have reasonable control over sales and are reluctant to sell. Especially for some mainstream rare earth oxides, the supply performance is tight, the price trend of rare earth market is rising, large enterprise groups are reluctant to sell in the near future, the market of rare earth has improved, but the major manufacturers are cautious about the pricing of products. Recently, rare earth imports have declined, domestic enterprises are reluctant to sell, and some prices in the rare earth market have risen.

Recently, the State Environmental Protection Department has made no reduction in its stringent efforts, which has a greater impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a low start-up and a cold market. Prior to this, Anhui Province jointly issued a special action document to crack down on rare earth blacks. Due to the increasingly obvious regulatory effect, the supply of raw mineral resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, and the rare earth industry has been trading well.

Rare earth analysts from business associations expect that the recent stringent domestic environmental protection efforts will not decrease, coupled with the domestic reorganization of the order of the rare earth industry, Myanmar’s export restrictions and reduced supply will provide some favorable support for the rare earth industry, but the recent rare earth market transactions are limited, and rare earth products are expected to rise slightly.

On June 10, the PX commodity index was 58.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 42.97% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 28.21% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 11th. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation, Fuhai Created Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant put into operation, and other units operated steadily for the time being. The price trend of toluene market is stable for the time being. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On June 10, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia increased by 22 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 862-864 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 881-883 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The rise of foreign prices has a positive impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is stable.

On June 7, WTI crude oil futures market in the United States fell to 53.26 U.S. dollars per barrel in July, a decline of 0.73 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil futures prices fell to 62.29 U.S. dollars per barrel in August, a decline of 1.00 U.S. dollars. crude oil prices declined, which lost some cost support for the price of downstream petrochemical products, and the price trend of paraxylene market was temporarily stable. Recently, the textile industry has been stabilizing, PTA price has been stabilizing for 11 days. The average offer price in East China is raised near 5500-5600 yuan/ton. As of 10 days, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 91%, the polyester industry start-up rate is about 87%, and the downstream production and sales rate remains high. However, PTA market price shocks. It is expected that the price of PX market will be low in the later period.

Beijing time, June 11, crude oil futures prices closed lower Monday as investors focused on market concerns about the slowdown in global economic growth and looked for clues about what OPEC and its “allies” would do next about their production cuts. Meanwhile, according to Xinhua News Agency, US President Trump said on the 7th that the United States had reached an agreement with Mexico to impose tariffs on Mexican imports into the United States indefinitely, once supporting oil prices.

West Texas Light Crude Oil (WTI) futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 73 cents to $53.26 a barrel, or 1.4%. WTI futures prices rose 0.9% in the overall trading last week, but slipped into bear market in the middle of last week.

Meanwhile, Brent crude oil futures for August delivery on the London ICE European Futures Exchange also fell $1 to close at $62.29 a barrel, a 1.6% drop.

“After Mexico promised the Trump government that it would expand its border projects to slow immigrants’entry into the United States, the United States and Mexico reached an agreement to suspend tariff increases, thus boosting the market.” Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group, said. As a result, global stock markets, including major benchmark U.S. stock indexes, showed an upward trend in Monday trading, but this risk preference did not provide much support for oil prices.

In terms of economic data, according to Xinhua. com, the General Administration of Customs released data on the 10th. In the first five months of this year, the total value of China’s import and export of goods trade was 12.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.1% over the same period last year. Industry insiders believe that under the protectionist “adverse wind”, China’s foreign trade has developed smoothly, which is the result of China’s adherence to the expansion of opening up, and has injected more certainty into global trade. Affected by this, China’s stock market rose sharply. As of the close, the Shanghai index closed at 2852.13 points, up 0.86%, while the Shenzhen index closed at 8711.79 points, up 1.48%.

“Last weekend, the Saudi Arabian government hinted in a statement that OPEC and its partners were about to reach an agreement to extend the existing reduction agreement beyond June. At the same time, the statement also mentioned the need to maintain the current level of production reduction. Analysts at JBC Energy, a Vienna-based energy consultancy, wrote in a research report. The report also points out that the decline in the number of crude oil drilling platforms in the United States has also supported oil prices.

Baker Hughes, a field service provider, reported on Friday that the number of crude oil drillings in the United States dropped 11 to 789 this week, the biggest one-week decline since the week ended April 26. The report also points out that the number of crude oil drillings in the United States has declined in four weeks, the lowest level since February 2018. The data from Beckhughes can provide clues to future U.S. crude oil production. The decline in the number of drilling platforms means that production may decline, which is usually a positive factor for oil prices.

Whether OPEC Member States and non-OPEC oil-producing countries such as Russia will extend the cut-off agreement remains unclear. Alexander Novak, Russia’s energy minister, said Monday that he could not rule out the possibility of oil falling to $30 a barrel if the cut-off agreement was not extended, Reuters reported.

According to a S&P Global Platts survey, OPEC member countries produced 30.9 million barrels a day in May, the lowest level since February 2015 (before Gabon, Equatorial Guinea and Congo joined OPEC). At that time, Qatar was still a member of the organization. According to the survey, Saudi Arabia’s daily production dropped to 9.7 million barrels per day, the lowest level since January 2015, while Iraq’s production climbed to an all-time high of 4.82 million barrels per day.

In other energy trades on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the price of RBOB gasoline futures for July delivery fell nearly a cent to $1.730 a gallon, or 0.5 per cent; heating oil futures for July delivery fell 1.9 cents to $1.806 a gallon, or 1 per cent; and natural gas futures for July delivery rose 2 cents to $1 million a British calorie unit. It was $2.357, up 0.9%.

On June 10, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 57.10, down 0.65 points from yesterday, down 52.47% from the peak of 120.13 points in the cycle (2012-02-28), up 17.93% from the low of 48.42 points on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of phthalic anhydride has maintained low, the market of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride in eastern China has maintained a weak position, downstream factories have just needed to purchase, factory inventory pressure has continued, high-end transactions have been blocked, the mainstream of on-site neighbouring source negotiations is 5800-6000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiations is 5500-5600 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 5800-5900 yuan/ton, which The price of phthalic anhydride in China is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, the market is not good, and the price of phthalic anhydride is declining.

Recently, the executive price of the upstream product of phthalic anhydride, Sinopec o-phthalic anhydride, is 6200 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price in the market is 6200 yuan/ton. The quotation is declining, and the port market is general. The upstream raw material mixed xylene price fluctuation maintains stable, the turnover of phthalic acid is general, the port phthalic acid inventory is low, the quotation of phthalic acid external market is low, the import phthalic acid cost fluctuation, the actual transaction price is discussed in detail, the upstream price trend is declining, and the market price of phthalic anhydride remains weak. DOP downstream price is lower, DOP downstream demand is general, customer procurement enthusiasm is not good, DOP market mainstream transaction price is about 7300 yuan/ton, DOP downstream price is still under pressure, downstream price is slightly lower, demand for upstream phthalic anhydride is limited, phthalic anhydride market price is slightly lower, it is expected that the later market price of phthalic anhydride will be around 5800 yuan/ton.

On June 10, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.59% lower than the cyclical peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 33.79% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant shuts down more, domestic ammonium nitrate plant starts less, but with the warming of the weather recently, the influence of northern air limitation disappears. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles, and the price trend in the field declines. As of the 10th day, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiations in 1900-2050 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas have been forced to limit production or stop production and maintenance for environmental protection inspection, the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is temporarily stable.

Recently, the domestic nitric acid price has risen, up to 10 days, the market price is 1760 yuan/ton. The rising trend of nitric acid price has a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. The price trend of liquid ammonia in upstream raw materials has slightly declined. As of 10 days, the price of manufacturer in northern region has maintained in the range of 3200-3600 yuan/ton, while that in northwest region is around 2900-3100 yuan/ton. The rising price trend of cruise raw materials has a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market is shaking at a low level because of the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to remain low in the latter part of the shocks.

On June 10, the PX commodity index was 58.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 42.97% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 28.21% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 10th, Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant was running steadily, Urumqi Petrochemical Plant was started 50%, Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant was started one line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant was overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant was put into operation, and other units were running steadily for the time being. The price trend of toluene market is stable for the time being. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On June 7, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia increased by 45 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 840-842 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 859-861 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The rising price of foreign units has a positive impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, and the price trend of p-xylene in the market is temporarily stable.

On June 7, the price of WTI crude oil in July rose to 53.99 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 1.40 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil in August rose to 63.29 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 1.62 U.S. dollars. Crude oil price trend rose, which has a cost supporting role for the price of downstream petrochemical products. The price trend of paraxylene market is temporarily stable. Recently, the textile industry has been stabilizing, PTA price has been stabilizing for 10 days. The average offer price in East China is raised near 5500-5600 yuan/ton. By the end of the 5th day, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 83%, the polyester industry start-up rate is about 87%, and the downstream production and sales rate remains high. However, PTA market price is slightly lower, and the price of PX market is expected to oscillate in the later period.

According to the Institute of Geochemistry of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, a major breakthrough was made in the theory of prospecting and metallogenesis for new types of lithium deposits in China, and a world-class lithium resource base was found in central Yunnan. It is predicted that the lithium resources of this base will exceed 5 million tons.

At present, China is an importer of lithium resources. From 2011 to 2015, its dependence on foreign countries has reached 80%. It is urgent to find new lithium resources. For this reason, the chief scientist of the national key R&D project, the demonstration project of deep exploration technology in the scattered mineral resources base, and Wen Hanjie, a researcher at the Institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, have put forward a new type of deposit and a new metallogenic model of “carbonate clay type lithium deposit”.

According to the newly established metallogenic model, a potential large lithium resource base has been found in the central Yunnan basin. The ore body is concentrated in the Lower Permian inverted rock formation, which is a set of “continental margin-littoral” facies sedimentary rocks. The project team carried out scientific research demonstration exploration in two target areas delineated in this area. The results of engineering exploration show that the distribution of lithium-rich ore beds in this area is stable, the thickness is about 2 to 16 meters, the grade of lithium oxide is 0.10%-1.02%, and the average grade is 0.30%. A total of 340,000 tons of lithium oxide resources have been obtained in the 7.2 square kilometers scientific research and demonstration area, reaching a super large scale. Experts predict that the lithium resources in central Yunnan will exceed 5 million tons, forming a world-class lithium resource base.

The project passed mid-term assessment and on-site inspection at Kunming University of Technology from 30 to 31 May. It is reported that the carbonate clay-type lithium resources have broad prospects in China due to the huge scale of carbonate clay rocks in other areas.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the domestic xylene market as a whole was weak last week. The price of xylene fell compared with last week. At the beginning of the week, the prices of enterprises fell and stabilized over the weekend. At the beginning of the week, the average price of enterprises was 5 425 yuan per ton per week, while at the end of the week, the average price of enterprises was 5 314 yuan per ton per week, with a decline of 2.03%.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: Xylene market prices fell earlier this week. Due to the impact of Dragon Boat Festival holidays on the weekend, the mainstream market turnover is around 5250 yuan/ton. Xylene production enterprises are facing losses. Port stocks in eastern China are around 747,700 tons, down about 53,000 tons from 80,000 tons on Thursday, May 30.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, affected by the increase in U.S. crude oil inventories and trade wars, European and American crude oil futures fell to their lowest level since January this week. Brent crude oil range was between $60.63 and $64.49 per ton, with a weekly decline of about 5.99%.

On the downstream side, the current domestic market price trend for p-xylene is declining, downstream PTA plant is unstable, upstream cost surface oil prices continue to decline, naphtha and MX are difficult to support, cost demand is double negative, short-term PX price is weak; on the OX market, the overall market for o-phenyl is mixed, and the fall in June execution price of Sinopec Neighbouring Benzene releases the pressure on the decline of o-phenyl. However, the overall market of Phenyls weakened, and the future market of Phenyls was weak and stable. Overall demand is constrained by the rise in xylene market prices.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of Xylene Branch of Business Society and Chemical Industry believe that in general, the toluene market is still expected to be weak in the next two weeks. Focus on whether US crude oil can sustain $50/barrel, vulnerable shocks are more likely; downstream PX devices start up, the market mainly focuses on Sinochem Hongrun PX devices start up, but at present other major downstream purchasing intentions are general, the buying atmosphere is insufficient, inventory continues to be high, the market is in a stalemate stage, demand is still the main factor. The xylene market may be able to stop falling and rising when downstream units start to operate in the later stage.

Since the beginning of 2019, international crude oil prices have shown a trend of rising first and then depressing. Among them, NYMEX? WTI crude oil futures active contract 1907 hit the bottom on December 24, 2018 ($44.2 per barrel), then hit a high of $66.44 per barrel on April 23, 2019, with a maximum increase of 50.3%. By June 3, 2019, it fell to $52.86 per barrel, down 20.4% from the previous high. ICE Brent crude oil futures active contract reached its bottom on December 26, 2018 ($51.43 per barrel), hit a high of $74.04 per barrel on April 25, 2019, with a maximum increase of 44%. By June 3, 2019, it fell sharply to $60.9 per barrel, down 17.7% from its previous high.

Since May, global crude oil prices have fallen in a waterfall. I believe that there are both supply and demand imbalances and geopolitical factors. On the supply side, although OPEC is still implementing the yield reduction agreement, there is no big gap in global crude oil supply, but there is stock accumulation, mainly non-OPEC production increase and American shale oil production increase and export increase to make up for the supply gap caused by OPEC production reduction in the market.

On the supply side, according to a Reuters survey, OPEC cut production to 30.17 million barrels per day in May, down 60,000 barrels from April, the lowest since 2015. Although Saudi Arabia has increased production under pressure from US President Trump to suppress oil prices, Saudi Arabia has voluntarily controlled crude oil production below the level stipulated in earlier OPEC supply agreements. Since the United States imposed sanctions on Iran in May 2018, Iran’s crude oil production has fallen by 30%.

According to data released by the Russian Ministry of Energy, Russia’s crude oil production in May dropped from 1.123 million barrels in April to 11.11 million barrels, the lowest level since June 2018. Russia’s oil pipeline exports fell to 4.209 million barrels a day in May from 4.494 million barrels in April, as oil supplies through the Druzhiba pipeline nearly dried up, while maritime exports jumped 11.5%.

Geopolitical conflicts have also once led to market concerns about supply. Since the beginning of April, the conflict in Libya has continued to heat up. Iran’s crude oil exports continued to decline as a result of U.S. sanctions against Iran. Data show that Iranian crude oil exports fell sharply in May. The IEA said Iran’s crude oil production has now fallen to its lowest level since September 2013 and is likely to fall further to its lowest level since the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s.

However, more importantly, the increase of crude oil production in the United States, Canada and other countries, especially the double increase of crude oil production and export in the United States, has to some extent eliminated the effect of OPEC production reduction, making the supply and demand of the global crude oil market unbalanced. According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA), the average daily output of crude oil in the United States has reached 12.3 million barrels, making it the world’s largest oil producer.

Other statistics show that Venezuela’s crude oil exports have declined by about 1 million barrels per day since 2017, while Iranian crude oil exports have declined by about 1.3 million barrels per day since 2018 under a new round of U.S. sanctions, while U.S. crude oil exports have almost filled the gap of 2.3 million barrels per day since 2017.

In terms of inventories, EIA data showed that US commercial crude oil stocks excluding strategic reserves were 476.5 million barrels in the week ending May 24, a slight drop of 0.03 billion barrels from the week ending May 17, but still near the highest level since July 28, 2017. According to common sense, if global crude oil production falls, U.S. crude oil stocks will decline, because the U.S. relieves inventory pressure through crude oil exports, but in fact U.S. crude oil exports are increasing, but inventories continue to rise, which means that the global crude oil market is oversupply.

Statistics show that from January 5, 2007 to the present, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory and the closing price of NYMEX WTI crude oil futures (CL) show a correlation of -0.7. Therefore, the increasing trend of commercial crude oil inventories in the United States is not reversed, and the decline of international crude oil prices is difficult to stop.

In terms of demand, global economic growth prospects are worrying as global trade frictions spread from China and the United States to Mexico, the United States and India. Although China’s crude oil imports reached a record high of 43.73 million tons in April, domestic demand for refined oil was weak, which meant that the increase in imports was mainly due to reserve, not driven by actual demand. In the future, Asian crude oil import demand will cool down, especially in export-oriented countries in Asia, South Korea’s exports dropped by 11% in the first 20 days of May.

From the perspective of multiple factors of future oil price rise, it mainly comes from the uncontrolled situation in Iran, and the unexpected drastic reduction of oil production in Libya and other oil-producing countries due to geo-conflict, resulting in a supply gap that can not be compensated for by the incremental output of shale oil in the United States. Strategically, investors can sell crude oil futures to hedge the downside risk of spot prices, such as the NYMEX WTI crude oil futures contract of Chicago Merchants Institute or the previous crude oil futures contract, in order to prevent the rebound of crude oil prices, they can buy NYMEX WTI crude oil put options.