This week, the sponge titanium market prices remained strong. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 9th, the benchmark price of Shengyishe sponge titanium was 54750.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of this month.

In terms of raw materials, the high price of titanium concentrate has put pressure on the cost of high titanium slag enterprises. In addition, with the increase in electricity prices in Liaoning region, most production enterprises have suffered losses, and the market price of high titanium slag is under pressure and rising. According to the monitoring system of Business Society, as of May 9th, the benchmark price of magnesium in Business Society was 18466.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.07% compared to the beginning of this month (18666.67 yuan/ton).

Downstream titanium material market demand is weak, and the market transaction atmosphere is cold.

Post forecast:

Due to the high prices in the raw material market, magnesium ingot prices have fallen, sponge titanium production capacity has been continuously released, and production has increased. However, downstream market demand is weak, and the transaction atmosphere is cold, presenting a state of supply-demand imbalance. According to analysts from Business Society Sponge Titanium, the sponge titanium market is expected to remain strong in the near future. More attention should be paid to market news guidelines.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of April 30, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 7833 yuan/ton. Compared with April 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 7950 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 117 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.47%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, it can be seen that in April, the n-butanol market in Shandong Province, China, as a whole, showed a trend of frequent fluctuations and ending decline. In early April, approaching the eve of the Qingming Festival, the trading volume of n-butanol market turned weak, and the market price fell to the low point of the month. Downstream users sought to stock up on dips, and with demand boosting, the market quickly rebounded. However, after a brief rise, the demand side returned to calm, and the price of n-butanol market also began to fall. Some downstream users started to stage stocking, and the n-butanol market began to fluctuate with the continuous changes in demand. As of April 30th, the domestic market price of n-butanol in Shandong region is around 7800-7900 yuan/ton, and compared with the beginning of the month, the price has been reduced by about 100-150 yuan/ton.

Market price situation of n-butanol

Region/ Product/ April 30th

Shandong region/ N-butanol/ 7800-7900./-400

North China region/ N-butanol/ 7950-8050

South China region/ N-butanol/ 8200-8300

East China region/ N-butanol/ 8200-8300

Future analysis

At present, the overall trading atmosphere of the domestic Shandong region’s n-butanol market is quiet and mild, with downstream demand being for essential purchases. The pressure on the supply side of n-butanol factories is still acceptable. The n-butanol data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mainly adjust slightly, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

After the holiday, the weak market for hexafluoropropylene was mainly consolidated. The follow-up of downstream inquiries and procurement is average, and the transaction atmosphere is average. According to the data monitoring system of Shengyishe, as of May 7th, the benchmark price of hexafluoropropylene in Shengyishe was 35875.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.

Raw material side: High cost prices are under pressure, and production enterprises have thin profits. On May 7th, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market increased, the on-site equipment operated stably, and the supply of goods was normal. According to the data monitoring system of Business Society, as of May 7th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid (export) in Business Society was 14150.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.54% compared to the beginning of this month (13800.00 yuan/ton). The domestic fluorite market has risen. As of May 7th, the benchmark price of Shengyishe fluorite was 3687.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.34% compared to the beginning of this month (3675.00 yuan/ton).

The downstream market is relatively quiet, with poor demand, and the focus is on purchasing for essential needs.

Business Society’s hexafluoropropylene analyst predicts that due to the recent high cost support of hexafluoropropylene, downstream market demand is poor, and on-demand procurement is affected. It is expected that the hexafluoropropylene market will operate weakly and steadily in the near future. More attention should be paid to market news guidelines.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of butyl acetate was 7575 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 7475 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price decreased by 100 yuan/ton within the month, a decrease of 1.32%.

Market analysis: In April, the domestic market for butyl acetate remained stable and declined. There is currently no plan for maintenance or production reduction of the butyl acetate unit, and there is little fluctuation in capacity utilization rate within the month. The market supply is stable, and the price of butyl acetate is mostly operating steadily. In the first half of the year, due to the impact of cost factors, the raw material n-butanol was consolidating at a low level, and the mentality of butyl acetate manufacturers was indecisive. The performance of the butyl ester market was weak, and trading prices slightly decreased.

Cost side: The price of raw material acetic acid has risen and fallen, while the market for n-butanol has fluctuated at a low level. The fluctuation of the cost side market has affected the market mentality. Downstream gas purchases are insufficient, and more follow-up is needed. Manufacturers are actively shipping, but actual transactions are limited. At the same time, the operating rate of the butyl acetate industry remains low, and the price increase from manufacturers also has a boosting effect. The market supply is limited, and the price of butyl acetate remains stable.

Market forecast: Currently, the cost side price of butyl acetate in the market is weak, with limited support for butyl acetate. Downstream demand is average, and there is insufficient new market transactions. There is a lack of effective positive news on the market. It is expected that the butyl acetate market will consolidate at a low level in the future, and attention will be paid to the price execution of raw material acetic acid, n-butanol, and ethyl acetate manufacturers in the future.

In April, the domestic EVA market continued to decline, with spot prices generally dropping significantly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 30th, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 11333.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.03% compared to April 1st.

Fundamental analysis

In terms of raw materials:

In terms of raw material ethylene, the domestic spot supply situation was tight in early April, coupled with the maintenance of ethylene plants in neighboring countries, supporting the strong operation of ethylene prices. Mid month market consolidation volume lacks further guidance. With the recovery of supply, the number of offers in the latter half of the year began to increase. At the same time, domestic demand has remained stable with a slight decline, and supply pressure is gradually increasing. It is expected that the ethylene market may be weak after the holiday;

The market for vinyl acetate also fluctuated and consolidated during the month. Both supply and demand have decreased in the early stage, leading to a stalemate in the game. There were new production capacity investments in China within the month, but in the short term, self consumption and digestion did not create additional pressure on supply. However, the downstream load is gradually decreasing, and the consumption of vinyl acetate has decreased to some extent. The spot price of vinyl acetate in the market is fluctuating. Based on the performance of the upstream secondary material market in April, the cost support for EVA has generally remained flat.

In terms of supply:

In early April, the load level of domestic EVA enterprises continued to reach a high level of nearly 90% of the average construction at the end of March, leading to high supply pressure in the industry and a loss of focus on factory pricing. With the successive maintenance of Ningbo Formosa Plastics, Zhongke Refining and Chemical, and Zhejiang Petrochemical, the operating rate at the end of the month has significantly dropped to around 70%, and production has also decreased simultaneously. Although the current on-site supply of goods remains abundant, the supply pressure has eased compared to the beginning of the month. However, overall, the supply side still lacks support for EVA.

In terms of demand:

The demand side performance of EVA remained weak in April. The new quarter orders for foamed shoe materials have already exhausted their market driving effect at the beginning of the month, and traditional downstream purchases such as cable materials are weak. The purchasing level of photovoltaic enterprises is lower than expected, and on-site trading is concentrated in low-end offers. The buyer camp has poor confidence and is mainly cautious in pre holiday stocking, with no significant increase in volume observed. There are very few new orders in the market, which has led to an increase in actual orders, discounts, and sales by merchants. During April, there was a significant drag on the EVA price trend from the demand side.

Technical analysis

The probability of an increase in EVA’s future market is lower than that of a decrease, and spot prices may be weak and difficult to improve. The prediction model of the Business Society’s commodity analysis system shows that since March 24, 2024, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started a downward trend. Currently, both moving averages continue to decline in the same direction. On April 21, 2024, it is estimated that the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. crossing the 7-day moving average above the 30 day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is 37.28%.

Historical price monitoring [mid low level]: Since the beginning of 2024, EVA prices have risen first and then fallen. The current monitoring positions are 1-year low, 2-year low, and 3-year medium low. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average EVA price in the past three years is 17299.91 yuan/ton, with a median value of 19433.33 yuan/ton, a minimum value of 11333.33 yuan/ton, and a maximum value of 27533.33 yuan/ton. The low price difference (compared to the lowest price difference in the past three years) is 0 yuan/ton, and the top price difference (compared to the highest price difference in the past three years) is -16200 yuan/ton.

In April, the 30 day off average price of EVA dropped from -65.56 yuan to -331.11 yuan, indicating a sustained decline in EVA prices.

Future Market Forecast

The current domestic EVA market price has been continuously declining for more than a month, but there is still no clear turning point. Firstly, from a fundamental perspective, the secondary raw material market is expected to remain stable with little movement, and future changes may still be limited, providing support for the spot market to become smoother. There is little possibility of a rebound in demand after the end of the period, and the market may still be struggling to maintain the demand line. Technically speaking, the probability of crossing the 30 day line above the 7-day line in the short term is relatively low, while the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe indicates a higher probability of continuing the weak trend of EVA in the future. In summary, it is expected that the EVA market will be mainly weak and consolidating after the holiday. It is recommended to closely monitor the supply side trends.

In April, the domestic titanium tetrachloride market saw steady growth. According to the monitoring system of Shengyishe, as of April 29th, the benchmark price of titanium tetrachloride in Shengyishe was 10825.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.41% compared to the beginning of this month (10675.00 yuan/ton).

Raw material side: In April, the market price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region remained stable, with a moderate to weak trend. According to the monitoring system of Shengyishe, as of April 29th, the benchmark price of Shengyishe titanium concentrate was 2300.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.72% compared to the beginning of this month (2316.67 yuan/ton).

The market price of high titanium slag raw materials has rebounded. Due to the high level of titanium ore and the rise in electricity prices in Liaoning region, the cost of enterprises has been under pressure, and the quotation is firm.

The demand for downstream sponge titanium market has increased, and the market trading atmosphere is good.

Business Society’s titanium tetrachloride analyst believes that the high cost side of titanium tetrachloride is under pressure, and downstream sponge titanium market demand has increased, creating a good trading atmosphere in the market. Recently, market prices have remained stable.

The lithium hexafluorophosphate market declined weakly in April. At present, the mainstream price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is around 71-7200 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw materials:

This month, the price of raw material lithium carbonate has remained stable, with only a slight decrease. According to customs data, the domestic import of lithium carbonate in March was about 19043 tons, a month on month increase of about 64%, reflecting a more significant growth rate in the domestic import supply of lithium carbonate. According to the monitoring system of Shengyishe, as of April 26th, the benchmark price of Shengyishe lithium carbonate was 108400.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.31% compared to the beginning of this month (107000.00 yuan/ton).

Downstream aspect:

Downstream electrolyte companies have a wait-and-see attitude, with a cold purchasing atmosphere and only maintaining a rigid demand for purchases. Due to some enterprises having a certain amount of reserves, their demand for raw materials is not active, market transmission is not smooth, and there is no good news. Overall, the downstream mainly focuses on observation.

Post forecast:

According to data analysts from Business Society, the price of raw material lithium carbonate has slightly decreased, but overall, the production cost pressure on lithium hexafluorophosphate enterprises remains significant. Most enterprises mainly consume inventory. Overall, it is expected that the lithium hexafluorophosphate market will operate weakly and steadily.

According to the commodity market analysis system, as of April 25th, the average price of alumina in the market was 3483 yuan/ton, and on April 18th, the average price of alumina in the market was 3473 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.29% compared to last week.

In terms of cost

Due to shortages of bauxite and maintenance of alumina production lines, some enterprises in Shandong have insufficient supply of raw materials, but it does not affect normal shipments for the time being.

In terms of supply and demand

The trading atmosphere in the spot aluminum oxide market is weak, and downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises maintain on-demand consumption. Most traders are wait-and-see, and they are cautious in purchasing at lower prices. Recently, there has been a slight rainfall in Yunnan region, which has alleviated the disturbance of power supply and further promoted the pace of electrolytic aluminum production resumption.

Future Market Forecast

With the gradual digestion of the bullish sentiment of electrolytic aluminum, market prices have returned to fundamental logic. It is expected that the price of alumina will fluctuate and adjust in the short term. We will pay attention to the resumption of production by enterprises and changes in market supply and demand.

According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, starting from late April, the hydrogen peroxide market has rebounded and prices have fluctuated and risen. On April 15th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 906 yuan/ton. On April 24th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 953 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 5.15%.

Terminal demand rebounds, hydrogen peroxide market fluctuates and rises

Starting from mid April, terminal paper and caprolactam experienced a surge in demand, with an increase in the amount of water purchased for hydrogen peroxide. The hydrogen peroxide market improved and prices rose, causing manufacturers to raise their prices one after another, with an overall quotation of around 950 yuan/ton. Among them, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong region is about 920 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the middle of the month. The average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Hebei region is about 960 yuan/ton, which is an increase of 80 yuan/ton compared to the middle of the month. The average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Anhui region is about 980 yuan/ton, which is an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared to the middle of the month.

Chemical analysts from Business Society believe that starting from May, the terminal demand for hydrogen peroxide has gradually improved, and the market is expected to rise in the future.

Zinc prices have risen and fallen sharply this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 23rd, the zinc price was 22314 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.61% compared to the fluctuating zinc price of 22680 yuan/ton on April 15th. This Saturday is a trading day, with zinc prices exceeding 300 yuan/ton for three trading days, and within 100 yuan/ton for the other three trading days. Macroeconomic fluctuations are frequent, and zinc prices have risen and fallen sharply this week.

The expectation of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates has decreased

The month on month growth in retail sales in the United States in March was stronger than expected, weakening investor expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut. US bond yields quickly broke through high levels, and the US dollar index jumped to a five month high. The US dollar index has been consolidating at high levels this week. Federal Reserve officials are hawkish in their statements, and expectations of interest rate cuts have fallen to freezing point.

Risk mitigation in the Middle East region

The Iranian Foreign Minister stated that if the conflict in the Gaza Strip stops, peace will be restored to the entire Middle East region, and everyone, including Iran, will benefit from peace. The risk in the Middle East region has eased, and the risk aversion sentiment has cooled down, while the sentiment of rising non-ferrous metals has fallen.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, the risk in the Middle East region has eased, the US dollar index is high, and coupled with the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut falling to freezing point, the cautious sentiment in the zinc market continues to rise, increasing the pressure on zinc prices to fall. Recently, the black sector has rebounded from a low level, and the consumption of galvanized steel has improved. Downstream enterprises have slowly recovered their operating rates, and the consumption of zinc in the market is favorable. In April, domestic zinc mines resumed operation, and the tight supply was improved. The profits of zinc smelters increased, and zinc production increased. Overall, both supply and demand in the zinc market have rebounded, while macro sentiment has fluctuated and zinc prices have fallen. In the future, the macro aspect of the zinc market should focus on the US dollar index and the situation in the Middle East.http://www.lubonchem.com/