Trade name: propylene oxide

Latest price (September 30): 17333.33 yuan / ton

On September 30, the market price of propylene oxide in Shandong was temporarily stable, flat compared with the previous trading day, up 8.11% compared with the beginning of the month and down 7.80% compared with the same period last year. At present, the price of raw material propylene rises slightly, the cost impact is limited, the follow-up of new orders of downstream polyether is general, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is slow.

It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market may wait and see.

On September 30, the mainstream quotation range of 1# tin ingots in the domestic spot tin market was 276500-278500 yuan / ton, with an average price of 277500 yuan / ton, down 1500 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.

On September 29, the tin commodity index was 142.25, up 1.65 points from yesterday, down 2.83% from the highest point of 146.39 in the cycle (2021-09-27), and up 231.89% from the lowest point of 42.86 on December 9, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

On Wednesday night, the US dollar hit a high level in nearly a year, and the metal market was under pressure. The night market generally fell, Lun Xi fell 0.59% and Shanghai Xi fell 1.12%. In early trading today, Shanghai tin continued the trend of shock last night, down about 0.9%. As of the closing on September 30, the settlement price of the main contract of Shanghai tin 2111 was 270680 yuan / ton, down 1.86%. The spot market generally fell today, with the mainstream down 1500 yuan / ton, and the market trading was cold near the holiday. The main downstream areas are Guangdong and Jiangsu and Zhejiang, which are the key implementation areas of power restriction. The production restriction in the main production areas has a great impact on the demand for tin. Although the overall inventory is still low, the social inventory has rebounded recently.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 8250.00 yuan / ton on September 1 and 9250.00 yuan / ton on September 30, with an increase of 12.12% during the month and 25.00% compared with the same period last year.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 11337.50 yuan / ton on September 1 and 12962.50 yuan / ton on September 30, with a rise of 14.33% during the month and 27.24% compared with the same period last year.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 8750.00 yuan / ton on September 1 and 9333.33 yuan / ton on September 30, with an increase of 6.67% in the month and 9.80% compared with the same period last year.

In September, the overall rise of polyethylene spot market was dominated by favorable factors in the month. The three major polyethylene varieties increased to varying degrees, of which the increase of LDPE in East China was the most obvious, ranking third in the rubber and plastic list in September. During the month, the ex factory price of petrochemical increased one after another, with obvious increase range and strong cost support. Liansu futures market surged, bringing some positive support to the spot market. In addition, affected by the “double control” policy, some coal chemical enterprises have load reduction expectations, and the news boosted the market bullish sentiment. However, the overall trading atmosphere of the market during the month is general. Although it is currently in the peak demand season, the demand is not as expected. The merchant’s mentality is general, and the spot market price is mainly rising. The price of petrochemical enterprises continued to rise in early October.

Liansu futures rose sharply in September, bringing periodic benefits to the spot market. On September 30, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2201 was 9435, the highest price was 9975, the lowest price was 9300, the closing price was 9910, the former settlement price was 9385, the settlement price was 9570, up 525, or 5.59%, the trading volume was 523681, the position was 322940, and the daily position was increased 6162. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, the futures market has increased, and the new price of petrochemical enterprises at the beginning of the month has increased. In addition, it is currently in the peak demand season. There is a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream after the National Day holiday. In the future, there are still positive factors in the polyethylene market. It is expected that the PE spot market will still rise in October.

At present, the price of ethylene oxide is basically the same throughout the country. Except for central China, the ex factory price is 8200 yuan / ton and 8300 yuan / ton in Central China. The quotation of satellite Petrochemical is 8200 yuan / ton. During the shutdown and maintenance of Sanjiang silbang, Lianhong is in low load production, and no external quotation is available for the time being.

Upstream, ethylene prices showed a continuous upward trend this month. In the first ten days, GS Caltex, Gulei and other cracking units were shut down for maintenance. The Asian market was in short supply, and the supply and demand side was the dominant factor. The ethylene price deviated from the price trend of upstream crude oil and naphtha for a short time. Although the prices of upstream crude oil and naphtha weakened, the ethylene price in Asia still showed a rapid upward trend. In the later stage, the crude oil price continued to strengthen, further pushing up the ethylene price under the influence of dual factors.

In terms of ethylene oxide, it is obvious from the weekly k-column chart that the increase of ethylene oxide this month mainly occurred in the middle and late ten days. Due to the light terminal demand in the early stage, downstream manufacturers mostly hold a wait-and-see attitude towards ethylene oxide. Under the supply-demand game, the sharp rise of ethylene price has not fully supported the follow-up of ethylene oxide and downstream prices. Around the middle of the year, under the strong influence of the policy factors of “dual control” of energy consumption and power restriction, in addition to Sanjiang, which originally planned to overhaul the device, many manufacturers stepped on the “emergency brake” on the EO device to reduce the load for production or parking. Due to the shortage of goods and the continuous rise of raw material prices, the rising momentum of ethylene oxide has been released under the influence of the collective soaring prices in the chemical industry. The market is bound to have a certain impact on the downstream mentality in the short term. Under the situation of imbalance between supply and demand, the market transaction price is even much higher than the ex factory price.

The rise of ethylene oxide price has brought great pulling force, and the downstream market has also tightened the price of goods, which soared after the rise of ethylene oxide was established. The rising sentiment of terminal buying, coupled with the demand for double festival goods preparation, has a strong willingness to take goods, which is in sharp contrast to the bleak situation in the early stage.

Compared with the beginning of the month, hPEG increased by 17.98%; TPEG increased by 17.39%; Monoethanolamine rose by 50%; Diethanolamine increased by 19.10%; Triethanolamine increased by 15.05%; AEO-9 increased by 6.67%.

This month’s rise is the main theme. At present, ethylene oxide has turned losses into profits, and the profit space has increased. Based on the latest ethylene CIF Northeast Asia external price of 1135 US dollars / ton and the ex factory price of 8200 yuan / ton in East China, the profit of ethylene oxide is around 100 yuan / ton. As for the rising ceiling, excluding the speculation in the market, we may pay more attention to when to relax the policy and changes in the supply side.

Domestic acetic acid starts at a low level and the market supply is tight. The acetic acid operating rate has not improved after the Mid Autumn Festival, and the market supply continues to be tight. In addition, domestic traders intend to stir up, which promotes the continuous upward trend of acetic acid market.

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, the average price of acetic acid was 8983.33 yuan / ton on September 26. Compared with the price of 7250.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, it increased by more than 1700 yuan / ton during the week, an increase of 23.91% and 48.24% month on month. As of September 26, the market price of acetic acid in various regions in China rose and fell as follows:

region September 20th September 26th Price rise and fall

South China 7200-7300 yuan / ton 8700-9000 yuan / ton 1500/1700

North China 7200-7400 yuan / ton 9000-9100 yuan / ton 1800/1700

Shandong region 7100-7350 yuan / ton 8900-9300 yuan / ton 1800/1950

Jiangsu region 7600-7950 yuan / ton 8900-9100 yuan / ton 1300/1150

Zhejiang region 7650-8000 yuan / ton 9000-9100 yuan / ton 1350/1100

After the Mid Autumn Festival, there was no improvement in the start-up of domestic acetic acid plants. The acetic acid plants of manufacturers in North China and Northwest China were shut down for maintenance, the production of limited films in Shandong and Jiangsu was reduced, and the acetic acid plants of many factories in the field were shut down for maintenance or limited production. The enterprise inventory was tight, the supply of goods in the market continued to be tight, and the traders’ attitude was very strong, which promoted the market atmosphere. South China was mainly active in following up, The quotation of domestic acetic acid enterprises is high and upward.

Downstream, the market of ethyl acetate continued to rise during the week. As of September 26, the price of ethyl acetate in East China rose to 10850.00 yuan / ton, with an increase of 11.00% during the week. Yankuang and Jiangyin Baichuan at the supply end are still under maintenance, the supply of main factories is reduced, the market supply is reduced, and the impact of raw material acetic acid market further drives up the price of ethyl acetate, The manufacturer’s quotation has increased one after another, and the centralized shutdown of large factories still leads to a shortage of supply. It is expected that there is still upward space in the market in the near future.

According to the acetic acid analysts of business society, in terms of supply in the domestic market, the supply of acetic acid market is tight, the price continues to be high, the downstream purchase is rational, and it is difficult to make up for the supply gap in the field in a short time. It is expected that the future market will be high, and the specific attention will be paid to the market transaction.

Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong continued to rise sharply this week. The quotation increased from 2516.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2750.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 9.27%, an increase of 60.82% over the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose this week, and the urea commodity index was 127.91 on September 24.

The cost support was strengthened, the downstream demand was enhanced, the printing news was good, and the urea supply decreased

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in China rose this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea quoted 2800 yuan / ton this weekend, up 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing offered 2850 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 270 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea increased slightly this week as a whole: the price of LNG decreased slightly, and the quotation decreased from 6256.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6250.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.11%, a year-on-year increase of 159.69% compared with the same period last year; The price of thermal coal increased, and the quotation increased from 1407.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1525.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 8.35%, a year-on-year increase of 155.98% compared with the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia rose sharply. The quotation increased from 4725.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4950.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 4.76%, a year-on-year increase of 59.68% compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea rose slightly this week, from 17000.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 17300.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.76%.

From the perspective of demand: the demand increases, the agricultural demand begins to prepare fertilizer, the industrial demand rises, the demand for urea in the downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants increases, and the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains at a high level. Most of them follow up with the acquisition and use of an appropriate amount. From the perspective of supply: urea has entered the centralized maintenance period, the early shutdown and maintenance has not been recovered (Tianrun, Boyuan, etc.), energy consumption control shutdown (Ningyang, Linggu), fault shutdown (xinlianxin, Dongguang, Jinkai), defect elimination of new units (Haoyuan), safety control (Jinxin), and the daily output of urea is less than 140000 tons. Internationally: India RCF announced a new round of urea import bidding, which was opened on October 1, valid until October 12, and the latest shipping date was November 11. On the whole, the urea cost support is strengthened, the downstream demand is increased, the printing news is good, the urea supply is reduced, and the supply is in short supply.

Urea prices are bullish in the future

In late September, the urea market in Shandong Province may rise slightly. Urea analysts of business society believe that at present, urea has entered the centralized maintenance period, the supply is tight, the demand for autumn fertilizer will be opened, compound fertilizer plants and large traders begin to take goods, the industrial demand has increased, there is also good news from the printing standard, and the market price may fluctuate slightly in the future.

According to the price monitoring of business society, the domestic polyester filament market continued to rebound slightly this week (September 20-26). As of September 26, for mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the quotation of polyester POY (150D / 48F) is 7250-7600 yuan / ton, that of polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) is 8900-9200 yuan / ton, and that of polyester FDY (150D / 96F) is 7850-8000 yuan / ton.

Rise and fall of average price of polyester filament market this week, unit: yuan / ton

product 2021-9-20 2021-9-26 Rise and fall Year on year rise and fall

Polyester POY (150D / 48F) seven thousand three hundred and eleven seven thousand five hundred and twenty-seven 2.96% 46%

Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) seven thousand seven hundred and twenty-one seven thousand nine hundred and thirty 2.70% 42.50%

Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) eight thousand seven hundred and ninety-seven eight thousand nine hundred and seventy-four 2.02% 36.47%

Raw crude oil continued to rise at a high level, strengthening cost support. As of September 24, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was reported as US $73.98/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was reported as US $78.09/barrel. The maintenance of PTA unit increased, and the start-up of the industry decreased to less than 70%. Meanwhile, the supplier Hengli Petrochemical’s supply decreased by 30% in October, and there is no pressure on the supply side. This week, the domestic PTA market fluctuated upward, and the average price in the spot market was 5160 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 4.40% and a year-on-year increase of 51.73%.

The quality of the “golden nine silver ten” in the textile terminal industry is insufficient. Affected by the power limitation of weaving enterprises and the “double reduction and double control” of printing and dyeing plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the operating load of looms has rapidly decreased to less than 55%. In terms of export, the continuous rise of sea freight, the lengthening of transportation turnover time and the increase of logistics costs continue to put pressure on overseas orders of textile and clothing.

Business analysts believe that the polyester market has maintained an upward momentum driven by the positive cost side. It is expected that the price of polyester filament will remain volatile and upward before the National Day holiday. However, the current power restriction in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has a great impact on the downstream weaving and printing and dyeing industries, and the demand side shrinks sharply, which will highlight the contradiction between polyester filament supply, so the price increase will not be too large.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (September 24): 8866.67 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the bulk data monitoring of business society, the acetic acid market continued to rise. On September 24, the price of acetic acid was 8866.67 yuan / ton, an increase of more than 500 yuan / ton compared with the previous working day, with a single day increase of 6.19%. The domestic acetic acid plant started at a low level, the on-site supply continued to be tight, the acetic acid price of individual enterprises in East China continued to break through new highs, the on-site atmosphere was obviously bullish, and North and South China followed the rise. At present, the acetic acid plants of manufacturers in North China and Northwest China are shut down for maintenance, the production of limited films in Shandong and Jiangsu is reduced, and the acetic acid plants of many factories in the site are shut down for maintenance or limited production. The enterprise inventory is tight, the manufacturer’s quotation is increased, the supply of goods in the market continues to be tight, the traders’ attitude is obvious, and the acetic acid market is up.

Future forecast: the supply of acetic acid in the domestic market continues to be tight, the market is high and upward, and the downstream purchase is rational, but it is difficult to make up for the on-site supply gap in a short time. It is expected that the future market will be high and strong, and pay attention to the downstream transaction.

According to the price monitoring of business club, the current price of domestic PTA rose slightly today (September 23). The average price in the spot market was 4966 yuan / ton, with a single day increase of 1.08% and a year-on-year increase of 45.89%. The main futures 2201 closed at 5000 and settled at 4950, an increase of 134 or 2.75%.

In terms of supply, with the overhaul of Hengli petrochemical 2#2.2 million tons, Yangzi Petrochemical 2#65 million tons and Baihong 1.25 million tons PTA plant, the load of 3.3 million tons PTA plant of Yisheng new material decreased. At the same time, the supply of Hengli petrochemical, the supplier, decreased by 30% in October, which supported the PTA price. In addition, the raw material end also has a certain boost. On September 22, the international oil price rose. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $72.23/barrel, an increase of US $1.74 or 2.5%, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was US $76.19/barrel, an increase of US $1.83 or 2.5%. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released positive crude oil inventory data on Wednesday, which showed that US crude oil inventory fell to the lowest level in three years.

However, the production of downstream polyester and weaving factories is reduced, mainly promoted by mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and the quotation discount ranges from 100-300 yuan / month. The textile terminal industry was affected by the power restriction of weaving enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the “double reduction and double control” of printing and dyeing plants and the lack of quality of “golden nine silver ten”, and the operating load of looms decreased rapidly to 59.24%. In terms of export, the continuous rise of sea freight, the lengthening of transportation turnover time and the increase of logistics costs continue to put pressure on textile and garment export orders.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that the current crude oil cost support is acceptable, there are more maintenance of PTA units, and there is no pressure on the supply side; However, in terms of demand, it is mainly cautious to observe the market, and the overall transaction is weak. Therefore, it is expected that the short-term PTA price will maintain a narrow rise.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 8450.00 yuan / ton on September 12 and 8766.67 yuan / ton on September 22, with an increase of 3.75% and 6.26% compared with September 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 11950.00 yuan / ton on September 12 and 12300.00 yuan / ton on September 22, with an increase of 2.93% and 7.61% compared with September 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 8866.67 yuan / ton on September 12 and 9166.67 yuan / ton on September 22, with an increase of 3.38% and 4.76% compared with September 1.

In the past ten days, LDPE in East China rose periodically, HDPE rose first and then stabilized, LLDPE first opened and then fell, and the prices of the three PE spot varieties continued to rise as a whole. In the third week of September, most Petrochemical ex factory prices rose by 50-500 yuan / ton, with strong cost support. In addition, under the influence of “double control”, some coal chemical enterprises have load reduction expectations, which boosted the bullish sentiment of the market. The futures rose sharply on September 15 and 16, the market trading atmosphere was acceptable, the inventory decreased, the merchant mentality was good, and the spot market price mainly rose. Before the Mid Autumn Festival, only the factory quotation of LLDPE fell slightly, LDPE continued to rise after the festival, and the HDPE and LLDPE markets in East China remained stable for the time being.

The recent rise of Liansu futures has brought phased benefits to the spot market. On September 22, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2201 was 8750, the highest price was 8950, the lowest price was 8670, the closing price was 8870, the former settlement price was 8845, the settlement price was 8800, up 25, or 0.28%, the trading volume was 448521, the position was 326936, and the daily position was increased by – 8366. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, the futures market has increased, the overall rise and fall of petrochemical enterprises are mixed, the trading atmosphere in the market after the festival is general, the downstream mentality is cautious, and multi-dimensional holds replenishment on demand. Merchants’ quotations follow the market, and the firm offer focuses on a single discussion. Although the demand of downstream enterprises is in the peak season, but the orders are less than expected, in the future, the positive factors in the polyethylene market still exist. With the arrival of the National Day holiday and the double 11 e-commerce Festival, the downstream start-up growth is obvious, and the “double control” affects the fermentation. The parking and maintenance enterprises have growth expectations. It is expected that the PE spot market will fluctuate in a short or narrow range in the short term, and the above actors are still the main players in the long term.