Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (December 14): 6150 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the domestic acetic acid market operates on a wait-and-see basis. There is no pressure on the inventory of acetic acid enterprises, the supply of goods in the market is stable, the downstream purchase is mainly just needed, and the on-site trading is OK. At present, the market supply and demand maintain a balance, and the operator’s mentality is mainly on a wait-and-see basis.

Future forecast: wait and see the short-term acetic acid market, and pay attention to the market supply.

Trade name: propylene oxide

Latest price (December 13): 14300 yuan / ton

On December 13, the market price of propylene oxide decreased by 2.05% compared with last Friday, 2.05% compared with the price at the beginning of the month and 12.27% compared with the price on November 13. Recently, the price of raw propylene is weak, the cost support is general, the factory inventory increases slowly, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is general, the bearish mood is strong, the terminal is mainly waiting and waiting, and the focus of market negotiation is downward.

It is expected that the propylene oxide market will be dominated by weak operation in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of business society, PTA ushered in a rebound trend this week (December 6-10) after falling for 8 consecutive weeks. As of December 10, the average market price in East China was 4656 yuan / ton, up 3.63% from the beginning of the week and 32.98% year-on-year.

During the week, the PTA production capacity of factory maintenance and production reduction increased, and the spot was less. Among them, the restart of Honggang 2#2.4 million ton unit was delayed, the load of 3.3 million ton unit of Yisheng new material was reduced, and the 2.2 million ton unit of Hengli Petrochemical was overhauled on December 10. The industrial operating rate fell below 72%. PTA’s slight destocking was conducive to the price rebound.

The crude oil market has experienced a sharp decline in the early stage, and the oil price has reached a relatively low level. At present, there is a willingness to rebound and repair. On the supply and demand side, the results of the OPEC + meeting of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies were released last week. The policy was relatively conservative and increased production by 400000 barrels / day as scheduled. The statement of OPEC + in the later stage or flexibly controlling production according to the development trend of the epidemic supported the oil price. In addition, the Iranian nuclear negotiations are still deadlocked, so it is less likely that Iran’s crude oil will return to the market in the near future, which provides some support for the oil market, and the crude oil has ushered in a strong rebound. However, with the impact of the mutant strain Omicron on the economy fermenting again, people’s worries about economic recovery were rekindled, and oil prices fell under pressure. As of December 9, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $70.94/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $74.42/barrel.

In terms of demand, the operating load of the downstream polyester plant is not high and remains around 80%. This year is a warm winter. The domestic autumn and winter fabric market is particularly light. The inventory of weaving factories continues to rise, and the inventory is large, near 2 months. In December, foreign trade orders have not improved significantly, and the terminal weaving market has weakened. In addition, the orders of printing and dyeing factories have decreased significantly recently, and the follow-up or early holidays have resulted in low overall production enthusiasm of weaving factories. At present, the operating load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is about 65%.

Business analysts believe that at present, PTA cost support still exists, and the supply side reduction caused by centralized maintenance of the device has boosted the PTA market. However, the sluggish demand will restrain the increase of PTA. At present, the terminal orders are still relatively light. At the same time, it is worried that there are uncertain factors in the foreign trade market after the year. It is expected that before the Spring Festival this year, the goods preparation of weaving factories may be relatively cautious, and the holiday time of weaving factories may be earlier than in previous years. On the whole, PTA will still maintain a shock upward trend in the short term. In the near future, we still need to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic situation in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on logistics.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of aniline rebounded broadly after falling this week. On December 3, the price in Shandong was 9200-9380 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 9300-10300 yuan / ton; On December 10, the price in Shandong was 9300-9600 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 9600-9800 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.25% over last week and 24.08% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

On the cost side, pure benzene: crude oil rebounded broadly during the week, the price of pure benzene in the external market rose, and the cost side gave positive support; The lower reaches were bullish, and the price of pure benzene followed higher. However, the port inventory of pure benzene continued to increase, and there were still ships arriving at the port in the later stage, which suppressed the market mentality and limited the increase in the week. Due to the impact of the epidemic situation or the impact on the pure benzene related industrial chain in Zhenhai, Ningbo, the market mentality turned cautious. On Friday (December 10), the price of pure benzene was 6350-6450 yuan / ton (the average price was 6420 yuan / ton), and the average price increased by 110 yuan / ton or 1.74% compared with last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 40.6%.

The price of nitric acid rose this week. On Friday (December 10), the domestic production price of nitric acid was 2366.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.71% over last week and 24.56% over the same period last year. Enterprise inventory pressure eased and local prices rebounded at low levels.

At the beginning of the week, the raw material support was weak, the downstream purchase was light, the inventory of aniline factories accumulated, and the price continued to decline. As the price of raw materials rebounded, the decline of aniline stimulated the recovery of bargain hunting sentiment in the downstream and the price callback.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost and pure benzene, crude oil fluctuates and is full of uncertainty; The supply of pure benzene in the market is loose and the inventory is accumulated; The production of new downstream units has not been determined; Affected by the epidemic situation in Zhenhai, Ningbo, some downstream units are parked, the demand may decline, there are too many bad news in the site, and pure benzene may still weaken. In nitric acid, the market is expected to be stable and small.

The supply side of aniline Market is loose, the raw material support is OK, and the downstream purchase is active, which will boost the aniline Market in the short term. Overall, aniline is still expected to rise next week. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material, downstream demand and the dynamics of aniline plant.

Domestic cobalt prices rose on December 9

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic cobalt price rose sharply on December 9, and the cobalt market rose. On December 9, the cobalt price was 476300 yuan / ton, up 1.10% from 471100 yuan / ton on the previous trading day (December 8); Cobalt prices rose continuously.

Decrease in import of cobalt raw materials

 
The international price of electrolytic cobalt continued to rise, and the price difference at home and abroad widened. In October, the import volume of cobalt intermediate products fell sharply, and the import volume of electrolytic cobalt decreased sharply. Overseas gradually enters the New Year holiday, and the port shipping schedule may be delayed. Cobalt raw material suppliers and smelters feed back that the shipping schedule uncertainty will continue until at least the first quarter of 2022. In addition, the epidemic in South Africa affects cobalt ore transportation, and there may be a short shortage of supply in the domestic cobalt market.

Market Overview

According to the data analysts of business news agency, the import of cobalt raw materials decreased, the participation in shipping was limited, and the shortage of domestic cobalt raw material inventory continued. The basic orientation of international electrolytic cobalt is good, the price is rising, and the rising support of cobalt market continues; In December, the downstream of battery materials mainly focused on the inventory reduction strategy, the domestic demand was relatively light, and the market transactions were sporadic. Generally speaking, the recent limited supply has stimulated the sharp rise of cobalt price, and the rise of international cobalt price has led to the rise of domestic cobalt market. However, the demand of domestic cobalt market is relatively cold, and the rise space of cobalt market is limited. Cobalt prices are expected to rise in the future, but the rising space is limited.

Trade name: propylene oxide

Latest price (December 8): 14600 yuan / ton

On December 8, the market price of propylene oxide was temporarily stable, flat compared with the previous trading day and flat compared with December 1. At present, the price of raw propylene is rising slightly, the cost support is limited, the factory pressure is temporarily controllable, the price is mainly firm, the downstream follow-up is relatively general, the procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the market game is running.

It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market may be dominated by stalemate.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market rebounded slightly today (December 7). The average price in the spot market was 4563 yuan / ton, up 1.56% from the previous day and 30.19% year-on-year. PTA futures 2201 closed at 4606, up 120, or 2.67%.

In terms of plant, Fujian Baihong 2.5 million ton PTA plant is planned to start maintenance for three weeks on December 1. The 700000 ton PTA unit of Shanghai Yadong Petrochemical was overhauled on December 2 and restarted on December 31. In addition, the 1.1 million ton PTA plant of Ineos (Zhuhai) is planned to be overhauled for two weeks at the end of December. The overhaul plan of PTA plant is increased, and the current operating rate of the industry is reduced to less than 75%.

On December 6, international oil prices rose sharply. The settlement price of the main contract of us WTI crude oil futures was US $69.49/barrel, up US $3.23 or 4.87%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $73.08/barrel, up US $3.20 or 4.57%. South Africa reported that the symptoms of local Omicron infection cases were mild, after the market was worried about undermining oil demand and oil prices ushered in a retaliatory rebound. In addition, the Iranian nuclear negotiations are at an impasse, the possibility of Iranian oil returning to the market is reduced, and crude oil is also supported to a certain extent.

Downstream polyester factory promotion, the price of polyester filament in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was reduced by 100-300 yuan / ton. Because there is no obvious cooling in southern China, the sales of winter clothes are less than expected, and the shipment speed of thick fabrics such as velvet slows down. Superimposed on concerns about whether the epidemic situation will continue in the coming year, some weaving factories are cautious in production and inventory. The weaving Market is generally flat, and some dyeing factories have plans to have a holiday this month. At present, the comprehensive startup rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is around 65%.

Business analysts believe that the shock rise of crude oil has boosted and cost support has increased. In addition, there have been a lot of maintenance of PTA units recently, and the restart time of Honggang phase II has been postponed to January. The short-term supply has been tightened periodically, which is good for PTA. However, due to the weak demand, the short-term PTA price will fluctuate and recover in a narrow range.

On December 6, the market was very quiet at the beginning of the week. The venue paid more attention to the bidding of a petrochemical in East China, and the negotiation performance was very cold. On the trading day, the offer went down. In the afternoon, with the auction of 14500 yuan / ton, it ended, down another 500 yuan / ton compared with the last auction. The market atmosphere was poor. A few traders offered 15500-15800 yuan / ton. I heard that there were few actual orders on the floor. In the later stage, we will continue to pay attention to the large-scale situation of the plant, and the short-term bisphenol a market is still weak, mainly adjusted and operated.

In the upstream, the phenol and acetone markets are in a downturn. Today, phenol factories have made up a decline of 300 yuan / ton. The mainstream offer of on-site factories is 9000 yuan / ton, the market offer fluctuates up and down, and the mainstream offer in East China is 9000-9100 yuan / ton; From the perspective of acetone market, the port inventory decreased at the beginning of the week, and the mentality of cargo holders was supported. The offer was 5300-8350 yuan / ton, the low out intention turned weak, the terminal purchase intention was small, and the market negotiation was cold.

According to statistics, the price of domestic fluorite rose slightly this week. By the end of the week, the average price of domestic fluorite was 2861.11 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.59% over the price of 2844.44 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 9.34%.

The price trend of fluorite rose slightly this week. Recently, the manufacturers reported that the order situation of fluorite was ok, the installation commencement of merchants in the venue declined, the supply of fluorite in the venue was slightly tight, and the price trend in the venue rose. With the decrease of temperature, some fluorite manufacturers installed parking devices, the operation of mines and flotation in the yard declined, the delivery of goods in the fluorite yard was ok, and the market price of fluorite increased slightly. This week, the market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream fell sharply, and the downstream terminal mainly purchased on demand. By the end of the week, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2600-2700 yuan / ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiation in Fujian was 2750-2900 yuan / ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2750-2900 yuan / ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2750-2950 yuan / ton, Recently, domestic fluorite prices have increased slightly.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite has fallen sharply. As of the weekend, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 12720 yuan / ton. The sharp decline in the market price of hydrofluoric acid has a certain negative impact on the upstream fluorite market, and the price increase of fluorite is small. The price trend of domestic downstream refrigerant products has fallen sharply, the operating rate of the refrigerant industry in the field has remained low, and the sales of the automobile industry have been normal recently, but the quota of refrigerant manufacturers is insufficient, the refrigerant market continues to fall, the demand is mainly based on demand, and the refrigerant industry market is low. As a whole, the refrigerant market is mainly sharply lower, and the price of chloroform is lower, which makes the cost of the refrigerant industry drop. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 is declining. The start-up of major refrigerant mainstream manufacturers is still not high, and the market supply is normal, but the demand is not improved. The demand in R22 market application field is reduced, and enterprises reduce prices for sales. The price of mainstream manufacturers has a downward trend. Up to now, the market price of R22 is in the range of 20000-23000 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a in China declined, the price of trichloroethylene remained, the cost was under pressure, the phenomenon of closing and stopping the report of R134a increased, the market price fell, and the trading focus fell. At present, the market quotation of R134a is in the range of 35000-41000 yuan / ton, the high price transaction is weak, the market sentiment is poor, the enterprise’s eagerness to ship is obvious, the actual transaction is more profitable, the downstream refrigerant market continues to decline, and the fluorite price rises slightly due to tight supply.

On the whole, the market of the downstream refrigerant industry continues to decline. Recently, the supply of hydrofluoric acid market is normal, and the price of hydrofluoric acid has fallen sharply, but the supply of fluorite in the field has declined. Chen Ling, an analyst of business society, believes that the market price of fluorite still has good support in the short term, and the market price trend remains stable.

Data monitoring shows that the long and short index of natural rubber on November 30 was 58.3, down – 41.7% from the highest point of 100.0 in the cycle (2020-10-27), and up 721.1% from the lowest point of 7.1 on June 19, 2013. (Note: the period refers to the period from November 1, 2012 to now)

Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber in November 2021

Data monitoring shows that in November, China’s natural rubber market showed a trend of first down, then up and down: the mainstream quotation of domestic standard 1 spot rubber in East China market was 13583.33 yuan / ton on the 1st and 13560 yuan / ton on the 30th, slightly down by 0.17%; However, the monthly price fluctuated greatly this month. The highest point of the monthly price was 14360 yuan / ton on the 25th and the lowest point was 13060 yuan / ton on the 4th, with a maximum increase of 9.95% in the month.

Figure 3: comparison chart of natural rubber market in November 2021

The factors affecting the market this month are:

1. Macro: since November, crude oil prices have fallen sharply. WTI crude oil fell by 18.45% and Brent crude oil fell by 14.49%; The crude oil analyst of business society believes that in the short term, the impact of the new virus will continue to ferment, the epidemic in Europe will become more and more intense, and the oil price will be in an empty atmosphere, but it is unlikely that the oil price will continue to fall sharply. At present, the market focus is mainly on the OPEC + meeting to be held. Overall, oil prices may fluctuate weakly in the near future, and the possibility of continued bottoming cannot be ruled out.

2. Supply side: production area: Southeast Asia is affected by bad weather and frequent rainfall, which affects the local rubber cutting and raw rubber supply. For example, Thai media reported on November 26 that Thailand continues to issue flood warning in the South; As the northeast monsoon is strong and water vapor continues to be brought from the Gulf of Thailand, there is a fear of heavy rainfall in southern Thailand until 30 days ago. Eight governments such as Chunpeng must pay attention to the flood caused by accumulated precipitation; Secondly, a new type of deciduous disease broke out in rubber trees in Thailand. According to Thai media reports on November 29, jessada, director of Thai Rubber Research Institute, revealed that a new type of deciduous disease broke out in rubber trees in jianzhuwen and Dalat provinces in eastern Thailand, with a sick rubber forest area of more than 100 Lai. China’s rubber production areas in Yunnan began to stop cutting one after another, and Hainan stopped cutting at the end of the year. Affected by the cold wave weather, the cutting stop date may come ahead of schedule. In general, the significant reduction of domestic and foreign supply has significantly supported the rubber price. Output data: the October report recently released by ANRPC predicts that the global natural rubber output will increase by 1.8% year-on-year to 13.836 million tons in 2021. Among them, Thailand decreased by 3.9%, Indonesia increased by 2.8%, China increased by 22.9%, India increased by 15.3%, Vietnam slightly increased by 0.3% and Malaysia increased by 3%. In October, the global output of natural rubber is expected to drop by 0.6% to 1331000 tons. Among them, Thailand decreased by 2.4%, Indonesia increased by 4.7%, Vietnam decreased by 1.7% and Malaysia increased by 20.1%.

3. Downstream: operating rate data: the data show that as of November 25, the operating load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong was 66.00%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points over last week, a decrease of 9.35 percentage points over the same period last year and 2.06 percentage points over the same period in 2019. The operating load of semi steel tire was 62.25%, an increase of 1.07 percentage points over last week, a decrease of 9.04 percentage points over the same period last year and 6.56 percentage points over the same period in 2019. Consumption data: according to the October report recently released by ANRPC, the global consumption of natural rubber is expected to increase by 8.3% year-on-year to 14.028 million tons in 2021. Among them, China increased by 5.4%, India increased by 14.4%, Thailand decreased by 4.6% and Malaysia decreased by 2.4%. In October, the global consumption of natural rubber is expected to decline by 3.7% to 1141000 tons. Among them, China decreased by 9.3%, India by 23.1%, Thailand by 9.5% and Malaysia by 7.2%. Tire data: according to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics, China’s rubber tire output in October was 73.071 million, a year-on-year decrease of 5.9%. From January to October, the output of rubber tire casing increased by 13.8% over the same period of the previous year to 73845.2 million. Auto data: on November 24, according to the data of China passenger Federation, the overall retail sales of narrow passenger car market in the third week of November reached 49000 vehicles per day, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, and the performance was relatively improved, a decrease of 6% compared with the third week of October this year. Due to the obvious improvement of production in October, the retail recovery in November should be obvious, but the current recovery speed is still not fast, which is similar to that in 2019, and it is also a good performance.

4. In terms of inventory: the warehouse receipts increased significantly in the previous period. Statistics show that as of November 26, Tianjiao warehouse receipts were 1404700 tons, an increase of 12300 tons on a weekly basis. The total inventory of the exchange was 188350 tons, an increase of 8827 tons on a weekly basis; The No. 20 rubber warehouse receipt was 41671 tons, an increase of 91 tons. The total inventory of the exchange was 5259200 tons, an increase of 2006 tons on a weekly basis. The inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to go to the warehouse. Due to the poor shipping, most of the orders delayed in the early stage did not arrive at the port as scheduled; As the start-up of the tire factory has picked up, the inventory has increased.

5. Import and export: China: in October, China exported 342300 tons of all steel tires, 10.33% month on month, 0.32% year on year. From January to October, China exported 3.0714 million tons, 12.05% year on year; In October, the half steel tire was 182400 tons, with a month on month ratio of – 5.6% and a year-on-year ratio of – 1.3%. From January to October, the cumulative export was 1905500 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year ratio of 19.45%. Thailand: in the first 10 months of 2021, Thailand exported 2.778 million tons of natural rubber (excluding composite rubber), a year-on-year increase of 30%, and 3.762 million tons of natural rubber and mixed rubber, a year-on-year increase of 7%; The total export to China was 1.975 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7%.

6. Policy: India: according to foreign media reports on November 26, once the price difference of fresh latex is 2 rupees per kilogram higher than that of rss4, the rubber board of India will provide subsidies to rubber farmers according to the price difference. The Bureau has taken measures to strengthen film production to fill the shortage in the domestic market. Thailand: according to the news from Thailand on November 24, Zhu Lin, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Commerce of Thailand, stressed that we should continue to promote the third year income security plan to help farmers, fight back against the claim that the prices of all crops have fallen, and pointed out that the price of cup glue (DRC 50%) is higher than the guaranteed price.

7. Tire price increase: under the comprehensive influence of environmental protection, power restriction, rising raw material prices and other factors, tire manufacturers at home and abroad have issued tire price increase notices, such as Zhongce Rubber, Linglong tire, Zhengxin tire, Fengshen tire, Qingdao Shuangxing, Qingdao Jianxin united, Zhongda & Haoyu rubber, Hubei outlets, Pu linchengshan, GM, etc.

Future forecast: natural disasters have occurred frequently in Southeast Asia recently, and it is reported that La Nina will reach the peak from the end of next month to January 2022. Another report said that a new type of Defoliation Disease broke out in the rubber forests of Tsim Chuk Mun and Dalat Prefecture in Thailand, affecting the rubber cutting rate in many ways; At the same time, China’s domestic rubber began to stop cutting, and the natural rubber supply side played a supporting role in the market; The latest data show that the demand of downstream tire manufacturers has rebounded slightly; Rubber producing countries such as India provide subsidies to rubber farmers; Several tire manufacturers issued price increase notices; In addition, the epidemic, especially Omicron, has a great impact on the world. The terminal market is depressed and the freight industry is depressed. To sum up, various factors not only support the rubber trend, but also the overall impact of macro factors this month and the sharp weakening of crude oil and coal on bulk commodities. It is expected that natural rubber will maintain the range shock trend, and the continuous weakening risk caused by recent external system risks will not be ruled out in the short term.