Market situation

Recently, the melamine market has indeed faced the dilemma of negative sentiment and sluggish demand, leading to overall downward pressure on the market. However, in the long run, these negative factors will inevitably have a profound impact on the market. Affected by both sluggish demand and oversupply, the market price of melamine is showing a downward trend. As of April 28th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6012.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.43% compared to last week (6037.50 yuan/ton).
Downstream demand is sluggish: Downstream industries related to melamine, such as sheet metal and impregnation, have seen a decrease in operating load, resulting in an overall shortage of demand for melamine.
The real estate industry, as one of the important application areas of melamine, continues to be sluggish, with new construction areas and development investments continuing to decline, further weakening market demand.
Upstream raw material prices: The domestic urea market continues to operate in a stable, medium to strong trend, with some manufacturers offering slightly higher prices. The overall market transaction center has shifted upward, but the melamine market has not effectively boosted market demand. As of May 21st, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1930.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.93% compared to the beginning of this month (1875.00 yuan/ton).
At present, the market atmosphere for melamine is average, and the market is operating weakly and steadily. Affected by the increase in supply and weak demand, the market price of melamine is expected to continue to operate at a low level. In the foreseeable future, with the gradual release of new production capacity and the gradual recovery of downstream demand, the supply and demand relationship in the melamine market is expected to be adjusted. However, in the short term, the market may still face pressure from oversupply, and the trend of low prices is difficult to change.
The export situation is severe: the export market for melamine is also facing severe challenges. On the one hand, the international market competition is fierce, and Chinese products need to face competition from other countries and regions; On the other hand, the international trade environment is complex and ever-changing, and uncertain factors such as trade barriers and technical barriers may affect the export of melamine.
Future prospects
With the gradual release of new production capacity and the gradual recovery of downstream demand (although currently sluggish), the supply-demand relationship in the melamine market is expected to be adjusted to some extent in the future. However, in the short term, the market may still face pressure from oversupply.
Low price operation: Affected by the increase in supply and weak demand, the market price of melamine is expected to continue to operate at a low level. The specific price trend still needs to be judged based on market dynamics and changes in supply and demand relationships.
In summary, the current melamine market is indeed facing the dilemma of negative sentiment and sluggish demand. However, by strictly controlling production capacity, improving product quality, expanding application areas, and strengthening international cooperation, enterprises can actively respond to market challenges and achieve sustainable development.

price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market fluctuated and fell in mid May, with some spot prices of certain brands experiencing mixed ups and downs. As of May 20th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 15000 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of -3.12% compared to early May.
cause analysis
On the supply side: In mid May, the load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises has significantly decreased. Due to centralized maintenance in areas such as Luxi Chemical in Shandong, the local supply of PC has been tightened. The current industry average operating level has decreased by 8% to below 75% compared to the first ten days, and the weekly average production has fallen to below 60000 tons. In addition, Shanghai Mitsubishi still has plans to shut down in the future. However, PC inventory has remained high for a long time, and supply is still at a high level, with ample on-site supply. Manufacturers and midstream inventory are high, and the improvement in shipment pressure is limited. The market supply side has slightly improved its support for PC prices.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the price of bisphenol A continued to decline in mid May. Downstream enterprises have inventory to be digested in the early and post holiday period, resulting in sluggish trading on site. At the same time, the industry load has increased recently, and the on-site supply of goods has increased. In terms of raw materials, acetone and phenol fluctuated after rising, with average support for spot prices, and the upward trend of upstream crude oil in the far end was hindered. Overall, bisphenol A is mainly affected by the supply-demand imbalance, and its support for PC costs continues to weaken.
In terms of demand, PC consumption in mid May continued the pattern of rigid demand, and new orders in the market remained basically at the same level as the same period in previous years. The downstream factories are operating normally and stocking up is proceeding as planned. Due to the long-term weak market dynamics in the industry, high social inventory, and abundant on-site supply, the contradiction between supply and demand tends to lead to destocking. The weak purchasing of new orders remains, and the trading performance continues to be dominated by contract delivery after the holiday. Merchants tend to have a wait-and-see attitude, buyers are resistant to high priced goods, and the flow of goods in the market is slow. Overall, the demand side has weak support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
In mid May, the domestic PC market experienced a volatile decline. The upstream bisphenol A market fell and then consolidated, providing poor support for the PC cost side. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants has decreased, and although the pattern of strong supply remains unchanged, supply has tightened in some areas. At present, downstream demand follows the logic of essential demand, and the impact of the cancellation of US tariff policies is limited. Business operators remain cautious about the future market. At the same time, the industry’s inventory is high, and the seller camp is willing to sell and sell at a discount. It is expected that the PC market will remain stagnant and consolidate in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor the industry’s inventory digestion situation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price trend of polyester filament showed a trend of consolidation or stable center of gravity on May 19th. From May 9th to 12th, driven by the rise in international oil prices and polyester raw material costs, the price of polyester filament rose sharply. As of May 19th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6950-7200 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 8000-8400 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7300-7400 yuan/ton.

Cost factor: The adjustment of tariffs between China and the United States has driven up oil prices rapidly, and the rise in crude oil prices has led to an increase in the prices of polyester filament raw materials such as PTA and MEG. As PTA is an important raw material for polyester filament, its price increase has significantly increased the production cost of polyester filament. In order to maintain profit margins, enterprises have raised the prices of polyester filament products. The concentrated maintenance of PX major factories in the second quarter has led to a tightening of PX spot supply. As an important raw material for polyester filament, PTA prices have risen by more than 2% in half a month, providing cost support for the price of polyester filament and driving it up.
Supply and demand factors: From a supply perspective, some polyester factories have plans to reduce production, and the three major filament factories have decided to implement production cuts for loss making varieties, reducing market supply and providing some support for prices. From the perspective of demand, May is a traditional seasonal off-season, with limited growth in demand from downstream weaving enterprises. In addition, due to low-priced restocking in the early stage, downstream enterprises have entered the stage of digesting inventory in the short term, resulting in a decrease in their enthusiasm for purchasing polyester filament. However, industry leaders such as Zhejiang Petrochemical and Shenghong Refining have experienced equipment maintenance and capacity reduction, which has reduced market supply and supported prices.
Macro factors: The central bank has lowered the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions, policy interest rates have also been lowered, and market liquidity has increased, which theoretically has a certain boosting effect on the price of polyester filament. At the same time, the improvement of trade relations between China and the United States, coupled with positive market expectations, has also to some extent supported the price of polyester filament.
Business Society predicts that in the short term, under the background of cost support and tight supply, the price of polyester filament is expected to maintain a narrow range of fluctuations, or remain stable and slightly strong. But if the textile and clothing industry fails to significantly increase orders, the market may still face upward resistance.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on May 16th, the reference price for the domestic market of silicon metal # 441 was 9690 yuan/ton. Compared with April 30th (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 9880 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.92%.

From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week (5.9-5.16), the overall domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 continued to show a weak downward trend. During the week, the overall focus of the spot market price for silicon metal continued to move towards lower levels. As of May 16th, the reference market price for silicon metal 441 in Kunming was around 9800-10000 yuan/ton, and the reference market price for silicon metal 441 # in Tianjin was around 9300-9400 yuan/ton. The market price reference for metallic silicon 441 # in Sichuan region is around 9150-9300 yuan/ton. The market price reference for metallic silicon 441 # in Shanghai is around 9700-9800 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
Construction and production situation: According to incomplete statistics, the construction rate of silicon enterprises in Xinjiang this week is around 48% -50%, which continues to decrease compared to the previous period. Some large factories in Xinjiang have reduced production, and the temporary adjustments made by these factories have led to varying degrees of reduction in production and output for some silicon companies in other regions. The weekly operating rate in the northwest region this week is around 76% -78%, slightly lower than last week. Silicon companies in the northwest region are mainly concentrated in Qinghai, Ningxia, and Gansu. Currently, silicon prices continue to be low, and silicon companies are under pressure to ship, resulting in a weak overall production willingness. The operating rate in Yunnan region this week was around 13%, and the overall operating rate has also decreased. During the week, some silicon companies stopped production and furnaces, resulting in a significant decrease in overall production in Yunnan.
Supply and demand situation: This week, the overall supply and demand of the silicon metal spot market remained weak. At present, the overall performance of the downstream market for metallic silicon is cautious, and the poor demand makes it difficult to provide a good supply and demand transmission to the market. In some regions, silicon companies have poor shipments and there is a certain inventory pressure. Therefore, the overall mentality of silicon companies to start production and increase production is not good.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is relatively weak, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment. The overall mentality is average. The metal silicon data analyst from Business Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

The market for anhydrous hydrogen fluoride is temporarily stable this week. The mainstream ex factory price including tax is about 11350-11500 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 550 yuan/ton from last month. The prices of raw materials have declined, and the demand for downstream refrigerants is generally average. It is expected to maintain stable operation in the later stage. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of May 15th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11883.33 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price at the beginning of this month.

On the raw material side, the domestic fluorite price trend has remained stable this week, while the sulfuric acid price has slightly declined. Overall, small fluctuations in the raw material side have a moderate impact on the anhydrous hydrogen fluoride market. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of May 15th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s fluorite was 3656.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.35% compared to the beginning of this month (3706.25 yuan/ton).
On the demand side: The downstream refrigerant market is still good, and the terminal policy of the refrigerant industry is being strengthened. The demand is expected to achieve substantial improvement. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in the refrigerant market to raise prices. Currently, the pace of high price procurement is relatively slow, but the industry inventory is transmitted in a positive and orderly manner. Due to high prices, the enthusiasm for stocking up at the terminal is low, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand.
Market forecast: The price of raw material sulfuric acid has slightly declined, and the downstream refrigerant procurement atmosphere is quiet. It is expected that the market price of hydrofluoric acid will remain stable in the near future, and more attention should be paid to the news of leading enterprises and market supply and demand.

This week, the mainstream market price of melamine rebounded from a low level, and some companies raised their quotes by 50-100 yuan/ton. However, transactions were mainly for essential needs, and there was significant resistance to high price transactions. As of May 14th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5987.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.05% compared to the beginning of this month (5925.00 yuan/ton).

1. Supply and demand balance
Stable supply: The operating rate of production enterprises remains at a normal level, with no large-scale maintenance or release of new production capacity, and no significant fluctuations in the supply side.
Stable demand: Downstream industries such as sheet metal, coatings, and plastics purchase according to demand, without centralized stocking or significant reduction in orders, and the demand side support is stable.
2. Raw material prices
The recent price increase of urea, the main raw material, has led to significant changes in production costs for enterprises, supporting the stability of melamine prices. As of May 14th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1945.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.73% compared to the beginning of this month (1875.00 yuan/ton).
3. Reasonable inventory
The inventory of production enterprises and traders is within the normal range, with no significant backlog or shortage, and the market supply-demand contradiction has eased.
4. Stable international market
Export orders remain normal, with no significant fluctuations in overseas demand, and the export market providing a support for domestic prices.
5. Policies and Market Expectations
There have been no significant adjustments to environmental protection and safety production policies, and the production environment of the enterprise is stable; Market participants have neutral expectations for the future and speculative trading has decreased.
Future focus:
Raw material price trend: If urea and other raw materials fluctuate significantly, it may break the cost balance.
Downstream demand changes: The prosperity of terminal industries such as real estate and furniture affects long-term demand.
Export dynamics: The international trade environment and shipping costs may affect export orders.
Policy risk: Environmental production restrictions or energy policy adjustments may disrupt supply.
Overall, the current market is showing a stabilizing trend under multiple factor equilibrium, but it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of potential variables on subsequent market trends. It is recommended that companies maintain reasonable inventory and pay attention to cost and demand signals.

Last week (May 5-11, 2025), the domestic adhesive short fiber market continued to be weak. The price center of the upstream raw material market has fallen, the industry inventory level is relatively high, and downstream market demand is limited. Under multiple negative factors, a new round of price reductions has been introduced by adhesive short fiber manufacturers, and the adhesive short fiber market price is under pressure and declining.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 11th, the average market price of viscose staple fiber was 13360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton from the same period last week, with a weekly decline of 0.89%.
In terms of cost: Last week (May 5-11, 2025), there was little change in the market price of raw material dissolution slurry, a slight rebound in the market price of auxiliary material liquid alkali, a continuous decline in the market price of sulfuric acid, a narrow decline in the market price of raw materials, and a slight decrease in the average production cost of adhesive short fibers.
Supply demand: During the week, some adhesive short fiber manufacturers have increased their operating rates, resulting in an increase in industry supply. The tourist cotton yarn market has a strong atmosphere of observation and price stalemate. Insufficient orders have been placed in the terminal market, and downstream yarn companies still have a certain amount of raw material inventory. Coupled with high finished product inventory, a small number of orders have been signed on demand, and there has been no improvement in demand.
Future forecast
On the raw material side, the main material dissolution slurry market may operate weakly and steadily, the auxiliary material liquid alkali market may have an upward trend, and the sulfuric acid market or the overall market remains stable. Therefore, it is expected that the market price trend of adhesive short fiber raw materials will be inconsistent next week, and the cost support will be average.
Supply and demand side: The operating rate of the adhesive short fiber market equipment may not fluctuate significantly, and some manufacturers have high inventory levels. Therefore, it is expected that the supply side support of the adhesive short fiber market will be poor in the short term; Downstream yarn factories mainly consume raw material inventory and have a weak willingness to replenish raw materials. They may maintain rigid procurement, making it difficult for the demand side to improve. Therefore, it is expected that the demand side of the adhesive short fiber market will perform poorly next week.
Overall, the main raw material dissolution slurry market may experience weak consolidation, and downstream yarn market procurement enthusiasm is difficult to improve. The expected trading atmosphere in the market is flat. Business analysts predict that the domestic adhesive short fiber market will remain stable with small movements next week, and the price is expected to be around 13000-13300 yuan/ton for acceptance.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of polyester filament showed a stable to slightly upward trend today. From May 9th to 12th, driven by the rise in international oil prices and polyester raw material costs, on May 10th, chemical fiber giants such as Rongsheng Petrochemical continued to raise the prices of some products. DTY and POY increased by 50 yuan/ton, and semi transparent FDY increased by 50-100 yuan/ton. On May 12th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6550-6750 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 7800-8200 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 6700-6900 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost, international crude oil futures rose on May 9th. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $61.02 per barrel, an increase of $1.11 or 1.9%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $63.91 per barrel, an increase of $1.07 or 1.7%. Driven by the rise in crude oil prices, the prices of polymer raw materials such as PTA and MEG have risen. As of May 9th, the average market price in East China was 4750 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.63% from the beginning of the month. Directly increase the production cost of polyester filament.
In terms of supply and demand, the production and sales rate of polyester factories remained at 70-90% in early May, with some companies achieving a daily sales rate of 300% -1000% due to promotional orders. However, downstream hoarding willingness is relatively low, with a focus on essential purchases. May is a traditional seasonal off-season, and the demand growth of downstream weaving enterprises may be limited. In addition, due to low-priced replenishment in the early stage, the downstream may enter the stage of digesting inventory in the short term, and the purchasing enthusiasm for polyester filament may decrease. However, industry leaders such as Zhejiang Petrochemical and Shenghong Refining have recently experienced equipment maintenance and capacity reduction, which will to some extent reduce market supply and support prices.
Macroscopically, starting from May 15th, the central bank lowered the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions, policy interest rates also decreased, and market liquidity increased, theoretically boosting the price of polyester filament.
Business Society predicts that in the short term, under the background of cost support and tight supply, the price of polyester filament is expected to maintain a narrow range of fluctuations, or remain stable and slightly strong. But if the textile and clothing industry fails to significantly increase orders, the market may still face upward resistance.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the above figure, copper prices rose first and then fell this week. As of this weekend, the spot copper quotation is 78258.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.03% from the beginning of the week at 78233.33 yuan/ton, a 6% increase from the beginning of the year, and a 1.7% year-on-year decline.
According to the weekly chart of Shengyi Society, copper prices have risen slightly this week, with a decrease of 4 and an increase of 8 in the past three months.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly decreased, with 194275 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, down 1.73% from the beginning of the month.
Macroscopically, the Federal Reserve’s May interest rate meeting maintained its interest rate decision unchanged, and Powell’s hawkish remarks exceeded expectations, driving the US dollar index to its largest daily increase in nearly two weeks. Copper prices both domestically and internationally were under pressure and gave up their post holiday gains. The market continues to focus on the progress of US tariffs. Although the US government’s attitude is wavering, the expected improvement will continue, especially with the short-term boost in market confidence from the US China economic and trade talks. However, it is also expected that there will be fluctuations.
Supply side: The Camoa copper mine under Ivanhoe Zijin Mining produced 50000 tons in April, setting a new historical high. The average ore recovery rate of its third phase project has reached 87.4%. It is expected that after the completion of the underground development project in the fourth quarter, the copper grade selected by the beneficiation plant will increase to 3%. Despite the expected increase in global copper mine supply, LME and domestic explicit inventories remain low, and domestic copper spot premiums continue to remain high, reflecting a tight balance in the spot market.
On the demand side: The policy combination of the People’s Bank of China may boost domestic demand, but the short-term market still faces two major concerns: first, before the clear signal of the Federal Reserve’s policy shift, market risk appetite is difficult to be optimistic; The second is that there is still uncertainty in international trade negotiations. Although putting mid-term negotiations on the agenda may boost confidence, the optimistic expectations of the short-term market for the negotiation results have cooled down.
In summary, in the short term, the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, the rebound of the US dollar, and the uncertainty of trade negotiations may lead to weak copper prices; However, in the medium term, China’s policy stimulus, global energy transition demand, and rigid copper mine supply may drive copper prices to gradually stabilize after fluctuations.

1、 Market price overview

The increased willingness of melamine companies to raise prices this week may be driven by multiple factors. As of May 8th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5900.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.42% compared to the beginning of this month (5925.00 yuan/ton).
2、 Market supply and demand situation
1. Cost side support: The main raw material for melamine is urea. If urea prices are affected by rising energy costs such as coal and natural gas or supply shortages in the near future, the production costs of enterprises may increase, and the pressure may be transferred through price increases. As of May 8th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1906.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.69% compared to the beginning of this month (1875.00 yuan/ton).
2. Supply side contraction: The industry enters a period of centralized maintenance, or in some areas, production capacity is limited due to environmental policies and safety production inspections, resulting in short-term supply reduction and increased bargaining power of enterprises.
3. Demand: The international market demand has rebounded (such as the growth in demand for building materials and coatings in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and other regions), or overseas production has been impacted by the energy crisis (such as the reduction of melamine production capacity in Europe), leading to an increase in export orders from domestic enterprises and supporting domestic trade prices.
If downstream industries such as sheet metal and coatings enter the peak production season (such as the release of demand in the real estate post cycle), or if downstream enterprises replenish their inventory to drive procurement enthusiasm, it may drive up prices.
3、 Inventory and price
1. Inventory situation: Due to weak downstream demand, the inventory pressure of melamine enterprises is gradually increasing. However, due to the relatively controllable overall inventory pressure, the company did not adopt a strategy of large-scale price reduction and promotion, but chose to temporarily stabilize prices until market demand recovers.
2. Price trend: Recently, the price of melamine has been relatively stable but showing a weak downward trend. In the first quarter, with the gradual release of new production capacity and the continued weakness of downstream demand, the price of melamine further fell and operated at a low level. In the near future, with the gradual adjustment of supply and demand, the price of melamine is expected to stabilize or even rebound slightly.
4、 Market outlook
Due to the constantly changing supply and demand relationship, production costs, and other factors, the market price of melamine may continue to fluctuate. With the gradual release of new production capacity and the sustained weakness of downstream demand, competition in the melamine market may further intensify. Against the backdrop of gradually improving international trade environment, the export market for melamine in China is expected to further expand, which will have a certain impact on domestic market prices.
In summary, the market atmosphere for melamine this week was average, but due to the overall low inventory pressure, prices have temporarily stabilized. In the foreseeable future, with the gradual adjustment of supply and demand and the continuous changes in policy environment, the melamine market is expected to usher in new development opportunities.