Market situation

Recently, the melamine market has indeed faced the dilemma of negative sentiment and sluggish demand, leading to overall downward pressure on the market. However, in the long run, these negative factors will inevitably have a profound impact on the market.
Affected by both sluggish demand and oversupply, the market price of melamine is showing a downward trend. As of May 26th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5975.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.01% compared to last week (6025.50 yuan/ton).
Downstream demand is sluggish: Downstream industries related to melamine, such as sheet metal and impregnation, have seen a decrease in operating load, resulting in an overall shortage of demand for melamine.
The real estate industry, as one of the important application areas of melamine, continues to be sluggish, with new construction areas and development investments continuing to decline, further weakening market demand.
Upstream raw material prices: The domestic urea market continues to operate in a stable to weak trend, with some manufacturers slightly lowering their quotes and the overall market transaction center shifting downwards. As of May 26th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1930.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.30% compared to the beginning of this month (1946.00 yuan/ton).
At present, the market atmosphere for melamine is average, and the market is operating weakly and steadily. Affected by the increase in supply and weak demand, the market price of melamine is expected to continue to operate at a low level. In the foreseeable future, with the gradual release of new production capacity and the gradual recovery of downstream demand, the supply and demand relationship in the melamine market is expected to be adjusted. However, in the short term, the market may still face pressure from oversupply, and the trend of low prices is difficult to change.
The export situation is severe: the export market for melamine is also facing severe challenges. On the one hand, the international market competition is fierce, and Chinese products need to face competition from other countries and regions; On the other hand, the international trade environment is complex and ever-changing, and uncertain factors such as trade barriers and technical barriers may affect the export of melamine.
Future prospects
With the gradual release of new production capacity and the gradual recovery of downstream demand (although currently sluggish), the supply-demand relationship in the melamine market is expected to be adjusted to some extent in the future. However, in the short term, the market may still face pressure from oversupply.
Low price operation: Affected by the increase in supply and weak demand, the market price of melamine is expected to continue to operate at a low level. The specific price trend still needs to be judged based on market dynamics and changes in supply and demand relationships.
In summary, the current melamine market is indeed facing the dilemma of negative sentiment and sluggish demand. However, by strictly controlling production capacity, improving product quality, expanding application areas, and strengthening international cooperation, enterprises can actively respond to market challenges and achieve sustainable development.

Recently (5.20-5.27), the butadiene rubber market has been weak and declining. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of May 27th, the butadiene rubber market price in East China was 12230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.47% from 12670 yuan/ton on the 20th. The price of raw material butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has shifted downwards; Shunding rubber production has slightly decreased, and supply pressure still exists; Downstream tire production is stable, providing essential support for butadiene rubber. As of May 27th, the mainstream prices for Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding in East China were 12150-12400 yuan/ton.

Recently (5.20-5.27), the price of butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has shifted downwards. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 27th, the price of butadiene was 10200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.20% from 11233 yuan/ton on May 20th.
Recently (5.20-5.27), the production of domestic butadiene rubber equipment has slightly decreased to around 7.60%, indicating that the supply of butadiene rubber still exists.
Demand side: Recently (5.20-5.27), stable downstream tire production has provided essential support for the demand of the butadiene rubber market. As of May 23rd, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 7.8%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 6.5%.; As of the week of May 23rd, domestic tire companies had 43 days of finished steel tire inventory, which remained unchanged on a week on week basis; The inventory of semi-finished steel tires has been 47 days, with an increase of 1 day in the weekly cycle ratio.
Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the raw material butadiene market will return to weakness, and the cost support for butadiene rubber will weaken; The stable start of downstream production provides strong support for the demand for butadiene rubber, and overall, it is expected that the butadiene rubber market will consolidate weakly in the later stage.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the overall price trend of polyester filament today is stable, with flexible transactions in some varieties. Some enterprises have promoted production and sales rates through promotional activities, but downstream procurement is still mainly based on essential needs. As of May 26th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang offer POY (150D/48F) at a price range of 6950-7200 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at a price range of 8000-8400 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at a price range of 7300-7400 yuan/ton.

Cost factor: Recently, the international oil price is expected to recover due to geopolitical reasons (such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict) and the travel demand in summer, driving the cost recovery of the polyester industry chain. After the release of domestic PX production capacity, prices gradually stabilized, and polymerization costs remained above 5000 yuan/ton, providing support for the price of polyester filament. Recently, PTA prices have fluctuated strongly, but weak downstream demand has led to poor cost transmission and limited profit margins for enterprises.
Supply and demand factors: From a supply perspective, some polyester factories have plans to reduce production, while the three major filament factories have decided to implement production cuts for loss making varieties, reducing market supply and providing some support for prices. From the perspective of demand, the domestic textile industry’s replenishment cycle has started, and the demand for varieties such as cotton yarn and polyester viscose yarn has rebounded, driving the consumption of polyester filament.
Macro factors: The central bank’s reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, as well as consumer stimulus policies, have increased corporate liquidity. The expected retail growth rate of consumer goods in 2025 is 5.5%, and the domestic demand market is expected to improve. The US tariff policy and Pakistan’s anti-dumping investigation have put pressure on exports, but the decrease in shipping costs may alleviate some of the export pressure.
Business Society predicts that downstream textile enterprises will mainly focus on purchasing goods for immediate needs, while the polyester filament market will have light trading and average production and sales. However, in the short term, against the backdrop of cost support and tight supply, it is expected that the price of polyester filament will maintain a narrow range of fluctuations, or remain stable and slightly strong.

Price Trend Review

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, on May 23, spot electrolytic nickel was reported at 124358 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.50%. The macroeconomic policy benefits failed to offset the pressure of weak fundamentals, and nickel prices showed a narrow downward trend.
Macro level: Policy boost has limited effect
Insufficient stimulation from domestic interest rate cuts: The central bank announced interest rate cuts and lowered deposit rates, but the credit demand of enterprises and residents was sluggish, and the willingness of real consumption and investment was weak, and the expectation of metal demand did not improve significantly.
The marginal effect of easing trade between China and the United States has weakened: the boost to market sentiment from the tariff reduction agreement has gradually been digested, and there is a lack of new policy stimulus points in the short term.
Supply side: Continued excess pressure
Global oversupply intensifies: WBMS data shows that in March 2025, the global refined nickel supply surplus was 39400 tons (with a production of 317300 tons and a consumption of 277800 tons), and the surplus expanded month on month.
Price differentiation of nickel ore: The benchmark price for domestic nickel ore in Indonesia has increased by 2.43% to $15415 per wet ton (due to the continued impact of the rainy season on mining); The rainy season in the Philippines has ended, shipping volume has rebounded, nickel ore prices have fallen, and the marginal cost support has weakened.
Inventory differentiation: LME nickel inventory increased by 3414 tons per week (to 198636 tons), with loose overseas supply and demand; Domestic nickel inventory in Shanghai decreased by 1083 tons per week (to 22418 tons), and the pressure on domestic spot prices has slightly eased, while global oversupply remains under pressure.
Demand side: Stainless steel off-season+structural weakening of new energy
Weak demand for stainless steel: The off-season effect is evident, and the accumulation of steel mill inventory is suppressing purchasing intentions. Nickel demand only maintains rigid demand. On May 22nd, the spot price of stainless steel was reported at 12242.86 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 0.4%.
New energy demand differentiation: The loading volume of ternary batteries has declined: In April, the loading volume of ternary batteries decreased by 7.0% month on month and 6.3% year-on-year, with the proportion shrinking to 17.2%; The dominant position of lithium iron phosphate has been strengthened: its proportion has increased to 82.8%, further squeezing the application space of nickel in power batteries. Export drag: In April, the export of ternary precursors decreased by 67% year-on-year, and weak overseas demand constrained nickel consumption.
Market forecast: The pattern of oversupply is difficult to change, there is a lack of bright spots in demand, the macro boost is weak, and there is no obvious upward driving force in fundamentals. The cost of nickel ore in Indonesia is rising, and support still exists. It is expected that nickel prices will remain within a range of fluctuations.

This week, the focus of the domestic acetone market has mainly declined. The acetone market in East China has been trading at an average price of 5856 yuan/ton since May 15th, but has dropped to 5646 yuan/ton on May 22nd, a decrease of 3.59%.

From the perspective of raw materials, the pure benzene market has not fluctuated much, and its overall impact on downstream acetone has weakened compared to the previous period; Traders face significant psychological pressure and have a strong intention to ship, resulting in continuous small declines in their offers. From the perspective of terminal factories, replenishment is mainly driven by urgent needs, with limited acceptance of high prices and a decline in overall industry operating rates. Actual orders are mostly small, and the participation of intermediate traders is limited. During the week, petrochemical manufacturers lowered their listing prices, and on the 22nd, Sinopec’s East China plant once again lowered prices by 100-150 yuan/ton. The factory adjustment is difficult to support the market.
The acetone offers in major mainstream markets across the country on May 22nd are as follows:
Region. Quotation on May 22nd /Weekly increase and decrease
East China region / 5600-5650./ -180
Shandong region / 5700-5750./ -180
Yanshan region / 5750./ -200
South China region / 5700./ -200

As of May 22nd, the acetone cargo statistics were 27500 tons, with 15500 tons still in transit. The current operating rate of phenol ketone enterprises remains at 75%, which is basically stable within the month.
Business Society predicts that the acetone market will consolidate and operate next week, and the fluctuation of raw material pure benzene will still be limited, which will have a significant impact on the difficulty of acetone production; Traders follow along to make offers, and the terminal conducts them according to demand. Small orders are the main focus, and the overall market is operating steadily.

Market situation

Recently, the melamine market has indeed faced the dilemma of negative sentiment and sluggish demand, leading to overall downward pressure on the market. However, in the long run, these negative factors will inevitably have a profound impact on the market. Affected by both sluggish demand and oversupply, the market price of melamine is showing a downward trend. As of April 28th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6012.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.43% compared to last week (6037.50 yuan/ton).
Downstream demand is sluggish: Downstream industries related to melamine, such as sheet metal and impregnation, have seen a decrease in operating load, resulting in an overall shortage of demand for melamine.
The real estate industry, as one of the important application areas of melamine, continues to be sluggish, with new construction areas and development investments continuing to decline, further weakening market demand.
Upstream raw material prices: The domestic urea market continues to operate in a stable, medium to strong trend, with some manufacturers offering slightly higher prices. The overall market transaction center has shifted upward, but the melamine market has not effectively boosted market demand. As of May 21st, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1930.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.93% compared to the beginning of this month (1875.00 yuan/ton).
At present, the market atmosphere for melamine is average, and the market is operating weakly and steadily. Affected by the increase in supply and weak demand, the market price of melamine is expected to continue to operate at a low level. In the foreseeable future, with the gradual release of new production capacity and the gradual recovery of downstream demand, the supply and demand relationship in the melamine market is expected to be adjusted. However, in the short term, the market may still face pressure from oversupply, and the trend of low prices is difficult to change.
The export situation is severe: the export market for melamine is also facing severe challenges. On the one hand, the international market competition is fierce, and Chinese products need to face competition from other countries and regions; On the other hand, the international trade environment is complex and ever-changing, and uncertain factors such as trade barriers and technical barriers may affect the export of melamine.
Future prospects
With the gradual release of new production capacity and the gradual recovery of downstream demand (although currently sluggish), the supply-demand relationship in the melamine market is expected to be adjusted to some extent in the future. However, in the short term, the market may still face pressure from oversupply.
Low price operation: Affected by the increase in supply and weak demand, the market price of melamine is expected to continue to operate at a low level. The specific price trend still needs to be judged based on market dynamics and changes in supply and demand relationships.
In summary, the current melamine market is indeed facing the dilemma of negative sentiment and sluggish demand. However, by strictly controlling production capacity, improving product quality, expanding application areas, and strengthening international cooperation, enterprises can actively respond to market challenges and achieve sustainable development.

price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market fluctuated and fell in mid May, with some spot prices of certain brands experiencing mixed ups and downs. As of May 20th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 15000 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of -3.12% compared to early May.
cause analysis
On the supply side: In mid May, the load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises has significantly decreased. Due to centralized maintenance in areas such as Luxi Chemical in Shandong, the local supply of PC has been tightened. The current industry average operating level has decreased by 8% to below 75% compared to the first ten days, and the weekly average production has fallen to below 60000 tons. In addition, Shanghai Mitsubishi still has plans to shut down in the future. However, PC inventory has remained high for a long time, and supply is still at a high level, with ample on-site supply. Manufacturers and midstream inventory are high, and the improvement in shipment pressure is limited. The market supply side has slightly improved its support for PC prices.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the price of bisphenol A continued to decline in mid May. Downstream enterprises have inventory to be digested in the early and post holiday period, resulting in sluggish trading on site. At the same time, the industry load has increased recently, and the on-site supply of goods has increased. In terms of raw materials, acetone and phenol fluctuated after rising, with average support for spot prices, and the upward trend of upstream crude oil in the far end was hindered. Overall, bisphenol A is mainly affected by the supply-demand imbalance, and its support for PC costs continues to weaken.
In terms of demand, PC consumption in mid May continued the pattern of rigid demand, and new orders in the market remained basically at the same level as the same period in previous years. The downstream factories are operating normally and stocking up is proceeding as planned. Due to the long-term weak market dynamics in the industry, high social inventory, and abundant on-site supply, the contradiction between supply and demand tends to lead to destocking. The weak purchasing of new orders remains, and the trading performance continues to be dominated by contract delivery after the holiday. Merchants tend to have a wait-and-see attitude, buyers are resistant to high priced goods, and the flow of goods in the market is slow. Overall, the demand side has weak support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
In mid May, the domestic PC market experienced a volatile decline. The upstream bisphenol A market fell and then consolidated, providing poor support for the PC cost side. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants has decreased, and although the pattern of strong supply remains unchanged, supply has tightened in some areas. At present, downstream demand follows the logic of essential demand, and the impact of the cancellation of US tariff policies is limited. Business operators remain cautious about the future market. At the same time, the industry’s inventory is high, and the seller camp is willing to sell and sell at a discount. It is expected that the PC market will remain stagnant and consolidate in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor the industry’s inventory digestion situation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price trend of polyester filament showed a trend of consolidation or stable center of gravity on May 19th. From May 9th to 12th, driven by the rise in international oil prices and polyester raw material costs, the price of polyester filament rose sharply. As of May 19th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6950-7200 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 8000-8400 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7300-7400 yuan/ton.

Cost factor: The adjustment of tariffs between China and the United States has driven up oil prices rapidly, and the rise in crude oil prices has led to an increase in the prices of polyester filament raw materials such as PTA and MEG. As PTA is an important raw material for polyester filament, its price increase has significantly increased the production cost of polyester filament. In order to maintain profit margins, enterprises have raised the prices of polyester filament products. The concentrated maintenance of PX major factories in the second quarter has led to a tightening of PX spot supply. As an important raw material for polyester filament, PTA prices have risen by more than 2% in half a month, providing cost support for the price of polyester filament and driving it up.
Supply and demand factors: From a supply perspective, some polyester factories have plans to reduce production, and the three major filament factories have decided to implement production cuts for loss making varieties, reducing market supply and providing some support for prices. From the perspective of demand, May is a traditional seasonal off-season, with limited growth in demand from downstream weaving enterprises. In addition, due to low-priced restocking in the early stage, downstream enterprises have entered the stage of digesting inventory in the short term, resulting in a decrease in their enthusiasm for purchasing polyester filament. However, industry leaders such as Zhejiang Petrochemical and Shenghong Refining have experienced equipment maintenance and capacity reduction, which has reduced market supply and supported prices.
Macro factors: The central bank has lowered the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions, policy interest rates have also been lowered, and market liquidity has increased, which theoretically has a certain boosting effect on the price of polyester filament. At the same time, the improvement of trade relations between China and the United States, coupled with positive market expectations, has also to some extent supported the price of polyester filament.
Business Society predicts that in the short term, under the background of cost support and tight supply, the price of polyester filament is expected to maintain a narrow range of fluctuations, or remain stable and slightly strong. But if the textile and clothing industry fails to significantly increase orders, the market may still face upward resistance.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on May 16th, the reference price for the domestic market of silicon metal # 441 was 9690 yuan/ton. Compared with April 30th (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 9880 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.92%.

From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week (5.9-5.16), the overall domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 continued to show a weak downward trend. During the week, the overall focus of the spot market price for silicon metal continued to move towards lower levels. As of May 16th, the reference market price for silicon metal 441 in Kunming was around 9800-10000 yuan/ton, and the reference market price for silicon metal 441 # in Tianjin was around 9300-9400 yuan/ton. The market price reference for metallic silicon 441 # in Sichuan region is around 9150-9300 yuan/ton. The market price reference for metallic silicon 441 # in Shanghai is around 9700-9800 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
Construction and production situation: According to incomplete statistics, the construction rate of silicon enterprises in Xinjiang this week is around 48% -50%, which continues to decrease compared to the previous period. Some large factories in Xinjiang have reduced production, and the temporary adjustments made by these factories have led to varying degrees of reduction in production and output for some silicon companies in other regions. The weekly operating rate in the northwest region this week is around 76% -78%, slightly lower than last week. Silicon companies in the northwest region are mainly concentrated in Qinghai, Ningxia, and Gansu. Currently, silicon prices continue to be low, and silicon companies are under pressure to ship, resulting in a weak overall production willingness. The operating rate in Yunnan region this week was around 13%, and the overall operating rate has also decreased. During the week, some silicon companies stopped production and furnaces, resulting in a significant decrease in overall production in Yunnan.
Supply and demand situation: This week, the overall supply and demand of the silicon metal spot market remained weak. At present, the overall performance of the downstream market for metallic silicon is cautious, and the poor demand makes it difficult to provide a good supply and demand transmission to the market. In some regions, silicon companies have poor shipments and there is a certain inventory pressure. Therefore, the overall mentality of silicon companies to start production and increase production is not good.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is relatively weak, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment. The overall mentality is average. The metal silicon data analyst from Business Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

The market for anhydrous hydrogen fluoride is temporarily stable this week. The mainstream ex factory price including tax is about 11350-11500 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 550 yuan/ton from last month. The prices of raw materials have declined, and the demand for downstream refrigerants is generally average. It is expected to maintain stable operation in the later stage. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of May 15th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11883.33 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price at the beginning of this month.

On the raw material side, the domestic fluorite price trend has remained stable this week, while the sulfuric acid price has slightly declined. Overall, small fluctuations in the raw material side have a moderate impact on the anhydrous hydrogen fluoride market. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of May 15th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s fluorite was 3656.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.35% compared to the beginning of this month (3706.25 yuan/ton).
On the demand side: The downstream refrigerant market is still good, and the terminal policy of the refrigerant industry is being strengthened. The demand is expected to achieve substantial improvement. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in the refrigerant market to raise prices. Currently, the pace of high price procurement is relatively slow, but the industry inventory is transmitted in a positive and orderly manner. Due to high prices, the enthusiasm for stocking up at the terminal is low, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand.
Market forecast: The price of raw material sulfuric acid has slightly declined, and the downstream refrigerant procurement atmosphere is quiet. It is expected that the market price of hydrofluoric acid will remain stable in the near future, and more attention should be paid to the news of leading enterprises and market supply and demand.