According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market has been consolidating at a low level recently. As of August 3, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 5862.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21% from 5875.00 yuan/ton on July 28.

Supply side: Recently, the market for maleic anhydride has been consolidating at a low level. In the first half of the week, the bidding in Yantai was poor, and the factory execution price slightly fell. In the second half of the week, the bidding price in Yantai slightly increased, and the factory execution price followed suit. Some major factories stopped selling, and transactions were still possible under the limited signing operation. At present, the load of the three lines in Yantai is 70%, and the equipment in Hubei is malfunctioning. The plan is to restore it in mid to early August; Recently, downstream unsaturated resin manufacturers of maleic anhydride have maintained a stock of essential goods and are mainly observing the situation. As of July 29th, the factory price of solid anhydride in the maleic anhydride market in Shandong Province is around 5500 yuan/ton, while the factory price of liquid anhydride is around 5000 yuan/ton.
Upstream: Recently, the n-butane market has risen, and as of August 3rd, the price in Shandong is around 4830 yuan/ton.
Downstream: Recently, the unsaturated resin market has been weakly consolidating, and the low price of styrene in the upstream has limited support for the cost of unsaturated resin. Currently, unsaturated resin is in the off-season of consumption, and downstream transactions are average, which has limited support for unsaturated resin and weak market conditions.
The analyst of Shengyi Society’s maleic anhydride products believes that the current downstream unsaturated resin market for maleic anhydride is weak, and the procurement of maleic anhydride is limited; The closure or suspension of sales in some factories has given a certain boost to the maleic anhydride market, and it is expected that the maleic anhydride market will mainly consolidate in the near future.

The demand for contracts within the month is stable, but there is a shortage of spot buying gas, and the acrylonitrile market operated at a low level in July. The price of acrylonitrile in the East China port market dropped from 8200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8150 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price of short distance delivery in the Shandong market dropped from 8100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7950 yuan/ton at the end of the month.

Supply saturation and supply-demand imbalance
Supply side: The utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile plant capacity has increased. According to statistics, the production of acrylonitrile plants in China in July was 366800 tons, a month on month increase of 12.14%. The capacity utilization rate for this month is 75.94%, with a month on month increase of 5.97% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.86%.
Although the cross regional external mining of Jinfa has partially alleviated the pressure of excess supply in the East China region, it has also to some extent eased the pressure of market oversupply. However, the 400000 ton new unit of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical was put into operation in June, and the production capacity was further released and increased to 90% in July. The increase in production capacity has enhanced the overall supply capacity, but the market is still oversupplied, which has also suppressed market prices to a certain extent.
In addition, due to the poor profitability of acrylonitrile and its by-products, the production loss situation continues. At the end of the month, the operating load of the 400000 ton acrylonitrile unit at Zhenhai Refining and Chemical dropped to around 80%. The spot resources in the East China region are temporarily limited, and supplier quotations have slightly increased.
Demand side: The overall demand of downstream industries is in the off-season, among which the ABS industry, although its production increased in July, has limited demand for acrylonitrile; The operating load of the acrylamide industry may continue to decline, and downstream enterprises will purchase raw materials according to demand, resulting in weakened demand and suppressing the market price of acrylonitrile. Due to the expected increase in supply and weak demand, market participants generally have a pessimistic attitude, and businesses tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude and purchase cautiously, further exacerbating the market downturn.
Market forecast: Jilin Petrochemical’s new equipment and storage are expected to be put into operation in early August, and the early-stage maintenance equipment of Jinfa has been restarted one after another, so the industry supply will continue to increase. On the downstream side, the supply-demand contradiction has not fundamentally improved, and there is a lack of sustained momentum for price increases, with relatively average demand support. On the cost side, the price of raw material propylene is currently relatively low and is expected to rebound in stages. Cost pressure is expected to rise again, but space is limited. Affected by this, it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will mainly experience low-level fluctuations.

Aluminum prices have fluctuated downward this week

Aluminum prices have fluctuated horizontally this week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 31, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20596.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.96% from the market average price of 20796.67 yuan/ton on July 25.
Fundamental Overview
Macro: The Federal Reserve meeting kept interest rates unchanged, which is in line with market expectations, and it is also the fifth consecutive time this year that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting has decided to keep interest rates unchanged.
According to social inventory data, the current social inventory of aluminum ingots is starting to recover, with a slight accumulation in recent times. On July 31st, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream consumption areas in China was 544000 tons, an increase of 11000 tons from Monday and an increase of 34000 tons from last Thursday. ‌‌

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on July 30th, the domestic market price of silicon metal # 441 was based on 10100 yuan/ton, an increase of 1370 yuan/ton or 15.81% compared to July 1st (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 8730 yuan/ton).

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in July, the domestic silicon metal (# 441) market as a whole experienced a broad upward trend. During the month, the market prices of metallic silicon (# 441) in many regions of China have continuously adjusted upwards, and the overall focus of market negotiations has continued to rebound. This is also the first consecutive downturn in the market since the beginning of the year. By the end of July, the overall market price of silicon metal (# 441) had finally returned to the 10000 yuan mark, with a price increase of around 1000-1500 yuan/ton during the month. As of July 30th, the market price reference for metal silicon 441 # in East China is 10100-10300 yuan/ton, in Kunming it is 10000-10300 yuan/ton, in Huangpu Port it is around 10100-10400 yuan/ton, in Tianjin it is 10000-10200 yuan/ton, in Sichuan it is 9600-9800 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai it is 10400-10600 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
In terms of inventory: As of April, the overall silicon metal market has been in a slow destocking state. The overall destocking performance of the market in June and July was still good. According to incomplete statistics, as of July 24th, the reference social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was around 535000 tons, a decrease of 77000 tons from the end of the first quarter. Therefore, there has been an improvement in the overall inventory pressure in the current market.
Supply side: Silicon companies in the northern region have reduced production due to equipment, while the southern region has entered a period of abundant water. The overall pace of resuming production is normal, and market supply has decreased in the north and increased in the south, resulting in an overall increase in supply and output.
In terms of demand: Currently, downstream organic silicon enterprises mainly digest the inventory of raw materials in the early stage of metal silicon. In mid to late July, the overall production of organic silicon monomers decreased, and new orders for high priced raw materials were average. Polycrystalline silicon and aluminum silicon were mainly purchased on demand. In August, downstream production expectations have slightly decreased, and demand for metal silicon is expected to increase.
Macroscopically speaking, after the recent proposal of the “anti internal competition and industrial integration” initiative, the sentiment of the metal silicon market has improved, the overall self-discipline of the industry has increased, it has refused vicious competition, the mentality of industry players has improved, and macro news has boosted the recovery of market prices.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is mild, with large stability and small fluctuations in supply and demand, and overall transmission is still acceptable. Business Society’s metal silicon data analyst predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon spot market will mainly adjust its operation, and specific attention needs to be paid to changes in supply and demand news and the impact of macro information on the market.

Price trend:

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, on July 29th, spot electrolytic nickel was reported at 122683 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.81% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.03%.
Rising at the beginning of the month: The disturbance of Indonesia’s nickel ore quota policy, coupled with the decline in LME and domestic inventories, supported the short-term rebound of nickel prices.
Mid month oscillation: Trump’s tariff threat, rising macro risk aversion, coupled with weak demand, suppresses rebound momentum.
At the end of the month, there was a surge and a decline: the domestic “anti internal competition” policy stimulated the sentiment of industrial products. On July 24th, nickel prices hit a high point of the month, and the sentiment gradually dissipated. Recently, nickel prices have fallen sharply.
Macro level: Interweaving of long and short positions, intensifying market competition
Positive factors
Domestic policy support: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will launch a stable growth plan for the steel and non-ferrous industries, emphasizing the elimination of outdated production capacity and boosting market expectations for supply side reforms. The completion of negotiations on the China ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 has benefited the circulation of regional raw materials. The manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.7% in June, and the new order index expanded, indicating a marginal recovery in the manufacturing industry.
Overseas negative pressure suppression
US tariff shock (core negative): Trump announced the imposition of 15% -40% tariffs on multiple countries starting from August 1st, leading to a rise in market risk aversion. If Russia and Ukraine fail to reach an agreement, the United States may impose 100% tariffs and secondary sanctions on Russia, further disrupting global trade.
The expectation of a Fed interest rate cut has cooled down: the annual CPI rate rose to 2.7% in June, and the core CPI rose to 2.9%. The market’s probability of a rate cut in September has decreased from 65% to 58%, and the strengthening of the US dollar has suppressed metal prices.
Supply side: Indonesia’s policy game+loosening of mineral prices
Indonesian nickel ore quota: 360 million tons have been approved, but only 120 million tons were consumed in the first half of the year, weakening the willingness of mines to raise prices.
Supply recovery in the Philippines: With the end of the rainy season and an increase in nickel ore shipments, Chinese port inventories have accumulated. The FOB price for 1.3% grade nickel ore is $31 per wet ton, a month on month decline.
Cost side decline: Indonesia’s nickel ore domestic trade benchmark price decreased by 1.8% in July, while the price of nickel ore in the Philippines weakened, resulting in an improvement in smelting profit margins.
Inventory changes: LME nickel inventory increased by 906 tons to 204912 tons during the cycle, while domestic Shanghai nickel inventory increased by 659 tons to 21880 tons during the cycle. Global inventory has shown significant growth, and the surplus pattern has not changed.
Demand side: Stainless steel off-season+new energy substitution suppression
Stainless steel industry: In July, high temperatures suppressed demand, resulting in a 2.87% decrease in production schedules for 43 stainless steel plants compared to the previous month, with limited support for nickel demand.
Policy support: Multiple departments are cracking down on “internal competition”. On July 29th, the benchmark price of stainless steel was 13017.50 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 1.9%, but inventory turnover is slow.
New energy (ternary batteries): Subsidies for new energy vehicles will continue, but the proportion of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries will increase, weakening the increase in nickel consumption.
Future outlook:
The nickel price is still dominated by macro and policy factors, and may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to the Federal Reserve’s movements in August and the effectiveness of domestic policies.

This week, the domestic melamine market stabilized and remained stagnant. As of July 28th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5825.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.06% compared to the beginning of this month (5887.50 yuan/ton).

Recently, the domestic melamine market has shown a weak consolidation trend, and there are multiple factors that contribute to the price game. From the perspective of supply and demand pattern, upstream production enterprises stimulate market transactions by actively lowering their quotations (with low-end prices reaching the range of 5200-5400 yuan/ton), coupled with periodic replenishment of international orders, effectively digesting enterprise inventory levels and gradually reducing some low-priced sources to a reasonable range.
The decline in urea raw material prices has weakened cost support, coupled with the shortened order cycle of production enterprises, jointly suppressing the upward space of melamine prices. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in downstream demand, and processing companies generally adopt on-demand procurement strategies due to sufficient low-priced inventory and low operating rates in the early stage, leading to a “price sensitive” stalemate in the market. Under multiple factors, the melamine market is expected to maintain a weak balance in the short term, and the subsequent trend is expected to be weak.
The utilization rate of melamine production capacity has slightly increased this week. Under the support of orders on hand, the current shipping pressure of production enterprises is limited. But as orders are gradually delivered, market supply is expected to increase. Downstream resistance to high priced raw materials is evident, with low acceptance. To maintain shipments, manufacturers may need to adjust their pricing strategies and mindset.
The mainstream price of urea in the current market remains stable, but prices in some areas have loosened and declined. As of July 28th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1825.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.11% compared to the beginning of this month (1823.00 yuan/ton). The urea market has entered a wait-and-see stalemate. Although there is a demand for replenishment downstream, due to a cautious attitude, small order follow-up is mainly focused on. The pressure on the supply side remains unabated, with Nissan maintaining a high level. At the same time, the inverted international prices and weakened coal expectations have intensified the bearish sentiment in the market. However, with the support of pending orders from the factory and low social inventory, prices have temporarily stabilized. Under the game of various forces, it is expected that the short-term market will maintain a volatile and weak trend.
Overall, the melamine market lacks strong positive support. In the short term, relying on existing advance orders, the market will maintain a stalemate. However, as the orders are gradually digested, the supply and demand sides will once again engage in a game. The future price trend will depend on the dynamic changes in supply and demand, fluctuations in raw material costs, and the evolution of market participants’ mentality.

Last week (July 21-27, 2025), the upstream raw material of nylon filament, Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam weekly settlement price, was lowered. The PA6 slicing market was weak and deadlocked, with prices continuing to decline slightly. Cost support weakened, and downstream enterprises held multiple rigid demand orders. The demand side did not improve, and the activity of on-site trading was poor, resulting in a weak decline in nylon filament market prices.

Nylon filament prices are weak and declining
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, last week (July 21-27, 2025), the price of nylon filament fell weakly. As of July 27, 2025, DTY (premium product) of nylon filament in Jiangsu region; 70D/24F) quoted 14320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton from the previous period, with a weekly decrease of 0.97%; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) quoted 12050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton compared to the previous period, with a weekly decrease of 1.23%; The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is reported at 14900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from the previous period and a weekly decline of 1.00%.
Insufficient support on the raw material side
In terms of cost: Last week (July 21-27, 2025), the spot market price of caprolactam was weak during the week. The weekly settlement price of caprolactam by Sinopec was 9050 yuan/ton (interest free for six-month acceptance), a decrease of 45 yuan/ton from the previous period. The market price of nylon PA6 slices was weak and stagnant, with insufficient cost support. As of July 27, 2025, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society is 8950 yuan/ton, mainly due to weak price consolidation. During the week, the market price of high-speed spun nylon PA6 slices slightly decreased, with a weekly drop of 0.96%, mainly due to weak cost support.
Supply and demand: During the week, some nylon filament manufacturers have lowered their operating rates, resulting in a decline in overall market supply. However, industry inventory levels continue to increase, leading to poor performance on the supply side; The demand in the end market is weak, and some downstream manufacturers have reduced production or switched production, resulting in a decrease in demand for nylon filament. It is difficult to find favorable support from the demand side, and many parties are following suit with rigid demand. Many industry players are adopting a cautious and wait-and-see attitude.
Future forecast
Cost aspect: In terms of caprolactam, the expectation for pure benzene is weak, and slice manufacturers have low enthusiasm for purchasing caprolactam. It is expected that the caprolactam market will be dominated by weak and low-level consolidation next week; In terms of PA6 slicing, cost support is limited, and the supply level of PA6 slicing market may continue to improve. Downstream market demand is weak, and it is expected that the market price of nylon PA6 slicing will weakly decline.
Supply and demand: July belongs to the off-season of traditional demand in the market, and coupled with the lack of signs of improvement in terminal market demand, downstream market procurement enthusiasm is not high. Therefore, it is expected that the demand for nylon filament market next month may decrease. If there is no significant improvement in demand, under the pressure of large inventory, some nylon filament manufacturers may have the possibility of reducing production capacity, while the industry continues to release new production capacity. Therefore, it is expected that the supply of nylon filament market will decrease next month.

Overall, both the upstream raw material caprolactam spot market and the nylon PA6 chip market are likely to continue to decline, with a lack of cost support and difficulty in improving downstream market demand. The demand side is dragging down market trends, and under the dual negative factors, analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the short-term nylon filament market price will mainly consolidate weakly.

1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices showed an “M” – shaped trend in July. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 80235 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the copper price fell to 79538.33 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 0.87% and a year-on-year increase of 8.51%.
According to the current chart of Shengyi Society, the spot price of copper in July was basically higher than the futures price, and the main contract is the expected price two months later. The expected future price may be under pressure.
According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory increased significantly in July. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 124775 tons, up 36.7% from the beginning of the month.
Macroscopically, in early July, the Trump administration announced the decision to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting from August 1st, which caused the copper market to rise first and then fall in July. The current focus is on the 50% metal import tariff that the US will implement next Friday. The tariff rate is very high and the implementation window is very short, especially for copper products, which has not yet been fully clarified, causing a severe shock in the global copper market.
Supply side: Overseas mining disturbances continue, and traders are accelerating their shipments to the US before August 1st, resulting in tight spot supply. Copper concentrate spot TC continues to fluctuate in the negative range.
Downstream: The overall operating rate of cable companies remains stable, and home appliance sales are boosted by national subsidy policies and 618 promotions (refrigerators and air conditioners have performed well). The high production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to drive copper demand. However, in the current off-season of the industry, spot consumption is weak, and the off-season atmosphere on the demand side is deep, resulting in low actual purchasing sentiment downstream.
According to the annual price comparison chart of Shengyi Society, copper prices have increased more or less in August in the past five years, and there is uncertainty in copper prices in August this year due to the impact of tariffs.
In summary, the current tight supply situation in overseas mining has not changed, and domestic copper concentrate processing fees remain low. Coupled with the low social inventory of copper in Shanghai and active transactions in the spot market, the tight supply of goods and downstream replenishment at low prices have formed support. However, global macro uncertainty and policy turning points are approaching, and it is expected that copper prices will mainly experience strong fluctuations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price center of polyester filament increased by 50-100 on July 24th. The production and sales rate of the sample enterprises was 107.1%, an increase of 54.8% compared to the 23rd. The orders waiting for inquiries in the early stage were placed in a concentrated manner, and the sales volume increased significantly compared to the previous days. The mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang offer POY (150D/48F) prices ranging from 6600-6800 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) prices ranging from 7700-8050 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) prices ranging from 6800-7100 yuan/ton.
With the recovery of commodity sentiment, the cost side support is relatively strong. Due to the tight circulation of local sources, the market price of polyester filament has risen. However, considering the continuous maintenance of essential procurement downstream and the overnight decline in crude oil prices, as of the early morning of July 24th, the electronic price of WTI August crude oil futures in the United States fell by $0.53, a decrease of 0.81%, to $64.78 per barrel. The London Brent crude oil futures price for September delivery fell by $0.69, or 1.00%, to $68.03 per barrel, with limited cost support and cautious market sentiment in pursuit of gains, resulting in limited intraday gains.
Today, polyester filament yarn rebounded and stopped falling under the drive of reduced production and price increases, as well as phased replenishment of inventory. However, weak demand and high inventory have constrained the overall upward potential. Business Society believes that the sustainability of the short-term rebound depends on the recovery of downstream operating rates and the intensity of production cuts. The price decline space in the short term is relatively small, and it is expected to remain stable or moderately strong.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PP market has been fluctuating recently, with prices of some brand products fluctuating. As of July 23rd, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7303.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.06% compared to the price level at the beginning of July.

price trend
In terms of raw materials:
Since the beginning of July, the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, as well as the announcement of OPEC+production plans, have put some pressure on international oil prices. At present, the market’s concerns about the risk of crude oil supply interruption have eased, and price fluctuations are mainly being consolidated. At the same time, the consumption of propane is sluggish, and it has followed the previous decline of crude oil. The current price position is not high, and the cost support for PDH manufacturing enterprises has fallen. In the early stage, propylene production and resumption of work were common, and the market was under pressure to decline. Recently, it has rebounded at a low level, but the increase is limited. Overall, the prices of PP raw materials at the end of July showed weak support for costs.
Supply side:
In July, there was a mutual occurrence of maintenance and resumption of work in domestic PP enterprises, as well as the release of production capacity. Overall, the industry’s overall load level has slightly decreased by 1% to 76% recently, with an average weekly total output of nearly 780000 tons. The supply of goods remains abundant, with inventory levels hovering around 780000 tons and average digestion. Overall, the improvement in support for spot prices from the PP supply side is very limited.
In terms of demand:
July is the traditional off-season for polypropylene consumption, and the demand for PP continues to be weak, resulting in a quiet trading atmosphere on the market. Merchants have hardly seen any advance stocking operations, and the on-site situation remains in a state of urgent need, with a focus on on-demand use. In terms of plastic weaving, the consumption level of terminal enterprises is already at the off-season level, and downstream PP enterprises in China are struggling to start production. Materials used in construction, agriculture and other fields are also at a low level and flat. On site new orders tend to be scattered small orders and contract deliveries, with flat liquidity of supply and slow release of PP demand. In the context of weak export and domestic demand, the demand side of PP has not provided strong support for spot prices.
Future forecast
Recently, the domestic PP market prices have fluctuated and consolidated. Fundamentally speaking, the overall strength of upstream raw materials is weak, and their overall support for PP is poor. The industry load is stable with small fluctuations, and there is an expectation of abundant supply in the future. Consumption is at a low season level. The contradiction between supply and demand and the decrease in cost value are combined, and the mentality of operators is bearish. It is expected that the PP market will continue to be stagnant in the short term.