Trade name: br 9000

Latest price (May 10): 12310 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business news agency, the domestic price of cis-1,3-polybutadiene rubber was 12310 yuan / ton on the 10th, up 0.74% from the previous day. On the one hand, Shunding manufacturers increased, leading businesses offer up. According to the monitoring of the business association, the ex factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber increased by 200 yuan / ton on May 10. As of May 10, the ex factory price of Qilu cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of Sinopec North China sales branch was 12200 yuan / ton; On the other hand, the price of Shanghai Rubber rose sharply after the festival, driving the bullish atmosphere of rubber ring. According to the business news agency, as of the close of May 10, the closing price of HuJiao 09 contract was 14595 and the settlement price was 14545, up 4.45% from 13925 yuan on April 30. Positions increased from 220762 at the end of April to 235895 at the end of May 10.

Future forecast: the rise of Shanghai rubber has more impact on cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. In addition, the recent maintenance of cis-1,4-polybutadiene enterprises has increased compared with the previous period, and the supply side has decreased. It is expected that the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will stop falling and rise in the future.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, after the spot copper price broke through the high of 70000 in February, it rose sharply again two months after horizontal consolidation. On May 7, the spot copper price was 74213.33 yuan / ton, reaching a new high since 2011, approaching 75000 yuan / ton. As of the night of the 7th, Luntong reached an all-time high of $10435 per ton, while Shanghai copper reached a new high of $75780 per ton in the past decade. Since the beginning of this year, spot copper has increased by 28.05%%, 72.49%%, approaching the highest price of 74900 yuan / ton on February 15, 2011.

Liquidity is abundant, US dollar declines

Abundant liquidity is indeed an important reason for the sharp rise of commodities in this round. In 2020, some central banks will launch unprecedented monetary easing policy and active fiscal policy, and China’s central bank will further support domestic economic recovery through precise monetary policy. In addition, the US Federal Reserve’s rapid interest rate cut, revised policy framework and improved inflation tolerance have driven the US dollar to weaken significantly, and global commodity prices have risen, with which copper prices have risen.

Lack of mining investment and decline of copper production

The epidemic disrupts the trade flow in the short term, and the lack of mining investment is bound to lead to a shortage of supply in the market. Chile’s lower house of parliament approved a measure on May 6 to impose a progressive tax on copper sales, which may cause more than 80% of the total burden, almost double that of neighboring Peru and parts of Canada, boosting copper prices. This could lead to stagnation in investment in Chile. Chile accounts for more than a quarter of global copper supply. Capital expenditure on copper mining will only increase slightly this year, from US $15.2 billion in 2020 to US $16.2 billion, and will remain at this level in the next two years.

Chile’s copper production in March was the 10th consecutive month of decline. Copper production fell 1.3% in March to 491.72 million tons, affected by new restrictions on transportation and Commerce after the summer vacation in the southern hemisphere. Chile’s copper production fell 2.2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2021 to 1.4 million tons, according to the National Bureau of statistics.

Carbon emission reduction increases copper demand

The green revolution of electric vehicles and renewable energy also boosted the growth of copper demand, and the green transformation also required more copper as a strong electric conductor. Copper is a key component of sustainable technologies, including electric vehicle batteries and derived clean energy. As the deadline for the Paris Agreement approaches, the political and economic impetus to promote renewable energy and green technology is growing. Compared with the traditional power generation and automobile fuel, electric energy is the best medium carrier in all energy sources, and the input, storage and output of electricity cannot be separated from the most mature and cost-effective conductor material copper. The carbon emission reduction measures at both the power generation end and the power consumption end will promote the use of copper

LME copper stocks continue to decline

LME copper inventory continued to decline, and the current copper inventory level is at a relatively low level.

The transmission of global currency over issuance and the mismatch between supply and demand lead to the rising copper price. Whether the copper price can continue to rise depends on the following factors:

Latest non agricultural data

The U.S. Department of Labor reported on Friday that the U.S. non farm employment data in April was shockingly poor. The number of non farm employment increased by 266000, the unemployment rate reached 6.1%, and the income increased by 0.7%. All this shows that there is a lack of growth in low skilled jobs. Taking into account the fact that the number of people in the past two months has dropped by 78000, the figure in April is particularly weak.

The production capacity of the mine that has been put into production has increased, and the copper production may increase

COVID-19 has affected the production of copper in some countries, but this year, benefiting from the capacity increase of the recently launched mines, global production is expected to grow by 3.5%. This year and next, the large-scale copper mines put into operation include kamoa kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo, quellaveco in Peru, Spence SGO in Chile (already put into operation) and Quebrada Blanca qb2, as well as udokan in Russia. In addition, many small and medium-sized copper mines will be put into operation. ICSG predicts that in 2022, with the increase of production capacity of Mines put into operation this year, the commissioning of new projects and the expansion of old mines, as well as the continuous improvement of epidemic situation, the global output is expected to achieve a growth of about 3.7%.

In terms of refined copper, this year and next, with China and the Democratic Republic of Congo fully recovering from the global blockade and continuous negative impact, the global refined copper production will achieve an annual growth of 3%. It is estimated that by 2021 and 2022, the output of primary electrolytic refining (from concentrate and hydrometallurgy SX-EW) in the world will increase by 2.9%, of which the growth rate of hydrometallurgy output is relatively low, with the growth rate of 0.6% in 2021 and 2.2% in 2022.

There is a certain seasonal regularity in copper

Historically, if divided by quarter, the current price difference of copper and aluminum usually appears relatively low in the first quarter, relatively high in the second quarter, and in the third and fourth quarters, it is in the stage of strength adjustment; From the perspective of month, the price difference between futures and cash tends to rise from February to may, weakens from May to July, remains relatively strong from August to October, and weakens again from November to January. In fact, this law is dominated by the traditional low and peak season factors of copper market.

Phasing out economic stimulus

China is the world’s largest consumer of industrial metals. Last year, economic stimulus measures and infrastructure spending to stimulate the economy led to a 38% increase in copper imports. Analysts said that China could gradually withdraw from the economic stimulus measures, which could cool the copper market in the coming months. Once the inventory of industrial enterprises tends to be stable, coupled with the slowdown of China’s credit, it may lead to a correction of copper prices.

Difficult for downstream enterprises

The continuous rise of copper price makes it difficult for processing enterprises to do so. Affected by the high copper price, the demand for some copper materials, orders for copper poles and wires and cables decreased significantly. Research shows that high copper prices have forced cable companies to delay delivery or stop some production lines due to financial pressure. The price difference of refined copper and scrap copper is high, which has reached about 3015 yuan / ton. The demand for raw materials for smelting and processing of recycled copper is strong, and the supply of scrap copper is tight. Because it is in the peak consumption season, the growth of white household appliances consumption supports the demand for copper tubes, while new energy vehicles and electronic industries also drive the sales of copper strips and copper foil.

At present, in the traditional peak season of the second quarter, domestic nonferrous downstream processing enterprises are faced with a sharp rise in raw material prices. Meanwhile, some enterprises have not yet fully purchased their own orders. Faced with the soaring raw material costs caused by the rapid rise in nonferrous metal prices and the insufficient bargaining power of some downstream products, the rise in raw material prices will undoubtedly weaken the serious profitability of enterprises, Bring adverse effects on business operation

Comparison of spot copper price trend chart in 2011

To sum up, due to the mismatch between supply and demand and loose funds, the copper price soared to a high level in more than a decade. According to the seasonal pattern of copper, may is still the peak demand season, but the latest non-agricultural data of the United States is poor, which affects the market confidence to a certain extent. The country may stabilize the commodity prices and withdraw from the monetary easing policy, and the downstream may slow down due to high price procurement. In May, the copper price is still strong, but compared with the copper price in 2011, it may continue to rise strongly or have greater pressure. It is expected that the copper price will mainly fluctuate from a high level in May.

Melamine market rose sharply in April, and continued to rise since May, reaching a new high. According to the monitoring sample data of the business community, as of May 7, the average price of melamine enterprises was 14900 yuan / ton, up 2.76% compared with the previous trading day, up 55.48% compared with April 7, and up 106.94% over the same period in three months.

The supply and demand pattern of the market has not changed much, and the market is running at a high level

Since May Day, the upward trend of market prices has been obvious, the export market has performed well, domestic trade is just needed, supported by orders waiting to be issued in the early stage, the enterprises have no pressure on sales and inventory, the tense situation of spot supply continues, and the quotations of enterprises continue to rise.

Upstream urea, May 7, Shandong urea market temporarily stable. In the aspect of demand, agricultural demand is mainly sporadic procurement; The start-up load of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber sheet plants increased slightly, and most of them followed the market. Supply side: at present, the operating rate of urea enterprises is about 70%, with a decrease, and the daily output is about 150000 tons. Urea plant maintenance, supply side tightening.

According to the price monitoring of business community, in April 2021, there were 51 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall, among which there were 30 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 32.6% of the number of commodities monitored; The top three commodities were melamine (34.28%), acetic anhydride (31.91%) and acetic acid (29.83%). A total of 31 kinds of commodities decreased month on month, and 15 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 16.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; The top three products were formic acid (- 18.44%), aniline (- 17.86%) and n-propanol (- 16.17%). The average rise and fall this month was 3.19%.

Melamine analysts of business news agency believe that the price of upstream urea is temporarily stable, and the impact of cost is limited. With the price of melamine rising to a high level, the downstream procurement has slowed down. However, enterprises are waiting for support, and there is no pressure in the short term. It is expected that the melamine market will mainly run at a high level in the short term, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the market information guidance.

On May 6, 2021, in the price rise and fall list of fluorine chemical industry, there are 0 kinds of commodities that rise, 4 kinds of commodities that fall, and 3 kinds of commodities that rise or fall to 0. Products falling include fluorite, hydrofluoric acid, aluminum fluoride and chloroform; Stable products include R134a, R22 and cryolite.

On May 6, the market price trend of fluorine chemical raw materials declined slightly. The price of raw fluorite was 2655.56 yuan / ton, and the price trend of fluorite declined. Recently, some domestic fluorite plants were generally started, and the in site mines and flotation parking devices were gradually started. The supply of fluorite in the in site increased. However, in the near future, the downstream market was mainly stable, and the fluorite price declined slightly. As of June 6, the price of fluorite in Jiangxi was 2500-2700 yuan / ton, and that in Inner Mongolia was 2400-2500 yuan / ton. It is expected that the price of fluorite will continue to fall in the future.

In the near future, the price of downstream refrigerants is mainly stable, and the operating rate remains low. The demand for hydrofluoric acid is general. However, due to the increase of on-site supply, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market drops slightly. As of June 6, the quoted price of hydrofluoric acid market is 10522.22 yuan / ton. Recently, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market drops slightly, and the operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%, Enterprises reflect that the current supply of hydrofluoric acid spot goods on the floor is normal. Recently, the market of goods on the floor is general, and some enterprises have stable ex factory prices. Up to now, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation is 9500-10500 yuan / ton. However, people on the floor reflect that the hydrofluoric acid market may have a downward trend in the near future, and Chen Ling, an analyst of the society of health, believes that the market of hydrofluoric acid may fall slightly.

The price trend of aluminum fluoride products dropped slightly. The market supply was normal and the trading market was general. The quotation of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Zerun energy and Chemical Co., Ltd. was 8500 yuan / ton. The overall market supply of aluminum fluoride was sufficient, and the overall price trend of aluminum fluoride Market declined slightly.

In recent years, the price trend of trichloromethane in Shandong Province has declined, and the overall demand of the downstream market has declined. The demand for trichloromethane is general. With the demand procurement in the downstream market, the price trend of trichloromethane market has fallen. At present, the domestic price of chloroform is 3850-4000 yuan / ton. On the one hand, the demand for downstream refrigerants is general, the shipment of chloroform is poor, and the demand side has declined; On the other hand, cost support has weakened.

In recent years, the price trend of domestic cryolite is temporarily stable, the operation of the plant is stable, and the supply is normal. The domestic negotiation price is about 6500-7000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiation. In general, the recent market of fluorine chemical industry is general, and it is expected that the trend of fluorine chemical industry will remain volatile in the later period.

In the near future, the price trend of downstream refrigerant R22 is temporarily stable, the price trend of raw material trichloromethane is stable, and the cost support is strong. In the near future, the downstream is mainly purchased on demand, the demand side changes little, and the market center remains high. As the price trend of hydrofluoric acid is mainly stable, the price of some affected refrigerants is temporarily stable. Refrigerant R134a price trend has an upward trend, the market is strong operation. In the near future, the start-up in the downstream remained low, but the raw material support was strong, and the refrigerant market was temporarily stable.

In April, the domestic ethanol market dropped significantly. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the domestic ethanol market price was 7012 yuan / ton on April 1, and the domestic butadiene market price was 6637 yuan / ton on April 30, with a decrease of 5.35% and a year-on-year increase of 18.79%.

The market situation of each region was weak, the market situation of northeast, East China and Henan was low, the honey ethanol market of South China and Guangxi was on the sidelines, the ethanol market of Dongguan was weak, the turnover of Anhui was light, the turnover of Sichuan was weak, and the ethanol market of Yunnan was down.

From the perspective of raw material corn, the raw material corn market went down this month, the grass-roots grain in Northeast China was undercut, some farmers were busy with spring ploughing and had no time to sell grain, in addition, the natural dry grain was not in a hurry to ship, the early output tide had ended, the periodic circulation reduction continued to boost the market, and the short-term market was supported by the bottom. At the same time, corn imports increased significantly year on year. From the demand point of view, the ethyl acetate enterprises were under started, the demand for other chemical industries did not increase significantly, the recovery of terminal enterprises was general, and the downstream procurement was mainly just needed due to the approaching holiday this month.

Logistics prices rose slightly this month. By the end of the month, the price from Jilin to Shandong was 300 yuan / ton, while that from Heilongjiang to northern Jiangsu was 400 yuan / ton. Shipping from Thailand to East China will be reduced by US $2-4 per ton.

Latest price trends of ethanol market in different regions:

Region, category, price

Henan Province Top grade 6850-6880 yuan / ton, tax included

Henan Province Anhydrous ethanol 7400-7650 yuan / ton including tax

Hebei Province General level 7450-7500 yuan / ton

Hebei Province No water in coal 8100-8150 yuan / ton

Heilongjiang area General grade of corn alcohol 6300-6400 yuan / ton including tax

Jilin area Ordinary alcohol 6650 yuan / ton including tax

Guangxi region Honey alcohol 7150-7200 yuan / ton

Guangxi region Cassava alcohol 6700-7000 yuan / ton

Guangxi region Anhydrous ethanol 7450-7500 yuan / ton

Guangdong area Cassava alcohol About 7150-7200 yuan / ton

Guangdong area Anhydrous cassava ethanol About 7550-7800 yuan / ton

Shandong Province General level 6450-6550 yuan / ton

Shandong Province Superior grade of corn 6850-7400 yuan / ton

Shandong Province Corn without water 7300-7400 yuan / ton

Southern Jiangsu General level 6600-6700 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu General level 6650 yuan / ton

Anhui Province Cassava general grade About 6450-6500 yuan / ton

Anhui Province anhydrous About 6450-6500 yuan / ton

Sichuan area Corn alcohol About 7500-7600 yuan / ton, including tax

Yunnan Province Molasses alcohol About 6900 yuan / ton

Yunnan Province Cassava alcohol About 6900 yuan / ton

With the increase of logistics price, the price of low-cost goods in Northeast China to consumer areas has no advantage. But at present, most corn ethanol enterprises have lost money. Business community ethanol analysts expect that under the influence of short-term market supply exceeding demand, the price will be weak and the domestic ethanol market will be volatile.

“Aluminum price” creates new heights

In mid and late April, the spot price of domestic standard aluminum ingots kept rising, breaking through 18000 yuan / ton, reaching new highs.

According to the data of business news agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market in April 30 was 18850 yuan / ton, reaching a new high in nearly a decade. In April alone, aluminum prices rose 9.11% in a single month.

Two rounds of policy superposition industry capacity ceiling basically formed

In 2017, affected by the supply side reform policy, the backward production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was gradually withdrawn from the historical stage by replacement or elimination, and the ceiling Market of electrolytic aluminum compliance capacity was initially estimated at about 44 million tons.

According to the news in early April 2021, the relevant departments of the state have studied the “implementation plan for carbon peaking in non ferrous metal industry” (hereinafter referred to as the “plan”) and are seeking the opinions of industry associations and enterprises《 The plan initially proposes that the non-ferrous metal industry should strive to achieve the peak carbon by 2025 and reduce carbon by 40% by 2040, which will be at least five years ahead of the national peak carbon. ”

The aluminum industry has reached the peak carbon target, which has a significant impact on the new capacity and the existing capacity layout. The market expects that the “ceiling” of electrolytic aluminum compliance capacity of 45 million tons will gradually form.

Judging from the spot price history of aluminum ingots, the price of aluminum ingot is affected by the supply side reform factors. After reaching the high point in the second half of 2017, it gradually entered the downlink period, from the wave band of 16000 yuan / ton above September 2017, and the lowest position appeared in the collapse period caused by COVID-19 in 2020. The aluminum price once fell to 11200 yuan / ton, and then rebounded to 14000-15000 yuan / ton. In the last ten days of November 2020, the aluminum price will continue to strengthen again, breaking through the high level in 2017, opening a new situation of repeatedly reaching new highs. Although there was a short-term correction, with the influence of the policy news of carbon peak and carbon neutral, and the macro favorable factors such as the inflation expectation in the capital market, the commodity price was more emotional, and the aluminum price was rising.

The long-term trend of aluminum price is as follows:

Rising demand expectations

In the first quarter of 2021, China’s aluminum production increased by 13.89 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 31.1%. In March, China’s total aluminum output was 5.367 million tons, up 17.6% year on year.

Looking forward to the second quarter, the market expects that domestic aluminum ingot consumption demand will continue to improve seasonally. First, the overseas market, European and American manufacturing industry continued to recover, and the demand for industrial products recovered. Since April, Europe and Alcoa have reached the highest levels since June 2019 and may 2018 respectively; Second, according to the social inventory data of the domestic market in April, the current destocking is obvious, and the total inventory is at a low level in the same period of recent years. Under the influence of supply constraints, the supply in the spot market is tightening, and the expectation is strengthened.

Recent rising logic

The rise of the market in April is mainly based on three factors:

First, the supply side capacity “ceiling” is expected to be strengthened. Due to the impact of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization, the new capacity of aluminum industry has been restricted in recent years. The market expects that the policy requirements or strict control of electrolytic aluminum capacity of 45 million tons “ceiling” will be implemented. Recently, Guizhou, Shandong and other places have banned illegal new capacity projects in electrolytic aluminum industry, and the new capacity is limited.

Second, the demand side of aluminum consumer side support is strong, aluminum social inventory is relatively low year on year.

Third, the positive macro aspects such as inflation expectations in the capital market have boosted the dominance of the financial attributes of commodities.

Future forecast

To sum up, under the high price and high profit, the current domestic electrolytic aluminum plants are basically in full production status, and the operating rate growth space is limited. Under the domestic carbon neutral target, with the implementation of China’s aluminum industry to accelerate the carbon peak target and the promotion of the local government’s “double control” policy of energy consumption, as a high-energy consumption industry, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity and output will be limited. Recently, the domestic aluminum ingot inventory turned into a downward trend, and the traditional consumption peak season gradually appeared, which strongly supported the aluminum price.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market fell slightly in April. By the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 2980 yuan / ton, 1.0% lower than the price of 3010 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 29.57% higher than the same period last year.

In April, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market dropped slightly. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices operated stably. Recently, the supply of goods on the site was normal, the goods on the site were in general, the manufacturers’ inventory increased, and the prices on the site dropped slightly. In the near future, the shipping market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is general, and the downstream is purchased on demand. In the near future, the trend of nitro compound fertilizer in the downstream is stable. There are still more production stoppages in the domestic downstream civil explosive industry, and the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start to work normally. The market price of ammonium nitrate declines slightly. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 2800-2900 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 3000-3300 yuan / ton.

The price trend of domestic concentrated nitric acid rose sharply in April. By the end of the month, the average price of domestic nitric acid was 2300 yuan / ton, up 12.50% from 2050 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The price of Xinghua is 2150 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe quoted 2300 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai quoted 2400 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic nitric acid plant has been running stably, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the delivery of goods in the market has improved. The price trend of nitric acid market has risen sharply in April, and the price of raw nitric acid has risen, forming a certain positive support for the ammonium nitrate Market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market has a limited decline.

In April, the price of domestic liquid ammonia in the upstream market declined slightly. By the end of the month, the price of liquid ammonia was 3890 yuan / ton, down 1.19% from 3926.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of domestic liquid ammonia Market in various regions decreased slightly, mainly due to the increase of supply. Some maintenance devices in Henan, Hubei and Hunan were restarted, and the spot goods on the site increased. The pressure of domestic liquid ammonia supply and demand was not great, and some large factories resumed work. The contradiction of tight supply was eased, and the demand remained stable. In addition, the inventory pressure of goods source in Shandong area is acceptable, but the area is in the accumulation stage, the liquid ammonia discharged by manufacturers is moderate, and the overall inventory pressure of the area is stable. A small decline in the price of upstream liquid ammonia has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate Market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has dropped slightly.

In the near future, the demand of downstream civil explosive industry is general, and the market demand for ammonium nitrate is normal, but the price of raw material market is high, which has a certain supporting role for the ammonium nitrate Market. The ammonium nitrate analysts of business community think that the price of ammonium nitrate Market is stable in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rose continuously in the first ten days of this month, and fell sharply in the second ten days. The price at the beginning of the month is the monthly low price, 7944 yuan / ton, and 8046 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.28%; April 24 is the monthly high price, 8619 yuan / ton, the monthly amplitude is 8.49%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business association, the price of propylene decreased sharply in the second half of March and rose at the end of the month. At the beginning of April, the market price rose slowly, with an average daily increase of about 50 yuan / ton. The price rose steadily on the 6th, rose steadily at the rate of 50 yuan / ton on the 16th, stabilized on the 23rd, fell about 50 yuan / ton on the 26th, fell about 150 yuan / ton on the 27th and 28th, and dropped 150-350 yuan / ton on the 29th. Today, most of the prices are stable, The current market turnover is between 8000-8600 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 8000 yuan / ton. On April 20, the external market of propylene in the United States dropped significantly again, which may have a certain impact on the domestic market. Asian propylene prices remained stable on the 29th, with limited impact on the propylene market. Propylene market is now no pressure inventory, part of the device is still in repair. The supply of goods in Shandong is a little tight.

Recently, the international crude oil market has witnessed constant events, and the price has fluctuated. The crude oil price rose significantly on April 28 and 29, which has a certain positive impact on the propylene market.

This month, PP declined slightly and then rebounded slightly, with a monthly decline of 3.34% and a monthly amplitude of 4.80%, which had little negative impact on propylene.

Acrylic acid rebounded after a decline this month, with a monthly decline of only 1.92% and a monthly amplitude of 8.31%.

In the first ten days of this month, propylene oxide was mainly stable, occasionally declined and then recovered. In the last ten days, it rose, with a monthly increase of 3.28% and a monthly amplitude of 5.98%, which had a slightly positive impact on propylene.

The epichlorohydrin market was stable in the first ten days of this month, rose sharply in the middle of this month, and fell steadily in the last ten days, with a monthly increase of 19.47% and a monthly amplitude of 30.00%, which played an obvious role in the rise of propylene.

In the first half of this month, the domestic n-butanol price was generally stable with occasional decline, and rose steadily in the second half of this month, with a monthly increase of 18.18% and a monthly amplitude of 23.81%, which had a great positive impact on the propylene market.

This month, the trend of ISO octanol is similar to that of n-butanol. It is also stable in the first half of the month, with occasional decline. It rises steadily in the second half of the month, with a monthly increase of 13.30% and a monthly amplitude of 17.36%. It also has a certain positive impact on propylene.

Isopropanol rose steadily after falling back in the first ten days of this month, with a monthly rise of 3.35% and a monthly amplitude of 5.30%, which had little positive effect on propylene.

The price of phenol in East China rose by 4.45% this month, which had a slight positive effect on propylene.

The quotation of acetone manufacturers in East China market fell slightly, with a monthly decline of 5.17%, which had a small negative impact on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

Propylene analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: Generally speaking, there are not many domestic stocks, some units are overhauled, the crude oil market is rising significantly, the downstream operating rate is acceptable, and the market is more than empty. Polypropylene futures are general. It is expected that propylene will stop falling after May day, and there is a possibility of stopping falling and rising.

Commodity index: the PCL commodity index was 92.74 on April 29, which was flat with yesterday, down 14.93% from 109.01 (2019-08-28) in the cycle, up 9.99% from the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020（ Note: cycle refers to April 1, 2019 to present)

The monitoring shows that since the start of 2021, the solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) of China’s domestic market has declined and continued to weaken after a short-term rise. On February 18, the main domestic mainstream was 1791.67 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation on March 30 was 1718.57 yuan / ton, with a decrease of about 4.18%; In April, the main market of polyaluminium chloride in Henan Province of China was slightly fluctuating, with an amplitude of less than 1%, with little change. By April 29, the main quotation was 1717.14 yuan / ton, so far, the overall decline was 4.16%.

Two and a half months later, it is very unstable for the water treatment manufacturers in Henan main production area. Firstly, the demand of the year is slowly restored, and the start-up of the production is also started on land and land; By the end of April, local manufacturers have entered the intermittent and repeated production stop production production partial production stop circle. First, the water treatment manufacturers in Gongyi area of Henan Province basically stopped production and rectification, and by mid April, the manufacturers resumed production on a large scale. During this period, due to the temporary tension of some brands of some manufacturers, the market was slightly increased; After the resumption of production, the manufacturer has sufficient inventory, weak market demand and a slight decrease in the market. Overall, the manufacturers have been repeatedly stopped and produced repeatedly due to strict environmental protection inspection during this period. Some small enterprises are unable to support due to production stoppage and demand. This situation will become more and more obvious with the strict inspection of environmental protection; Production does not forget to keep environmental protection, and the production enterprises have a long way to go.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, the data of business society show that from February 18 to March, the trend of hydrochloric acid in North China rose sharply from February 18 to March, with the mainstream market quotation of 180 yuan / ton on February 18, about 205 yuan / ton on March 22, and nearly 15% monthly increase. After that, the upstream liquid chlorine market rose 17% this month, with strong cost support,; The lower silica support is less than 1% higher than the monthly price fluctuation, the support of ammonium chloride is strong and the monthly rise is 14%. The downstream demand of “Jinsan” hydrochloric acid gradually increases, and the hydrochloric acid fluctuates up 15% in March. On the day of 31, hydrochloric acid rose by more than 40 yuan / ton. In April, hydrochloric acid in North China rose in a volatile manner. On April 1, the main market quotation was 243.33 yuan / ton, and on April 29, it was about 226.67 yuan / ton, falling in a single month, about 6.85%. The upstream liquid chlorine market is generally in general, and the support for hydrochloric acid is weak; However, the monthly price fluctuation of lower silica is less than 1%, and ammonium chloride is down 1.34% this month. The overall high level is consolidation, which is weak for hydrochloric acid. In conclusion, it is estimated that hydrochloric acid is mainly subject to small amplitude of shock in the near future. Since then, the overall increase is nearly 26%.

Secondly, natural gas is used in the production process. In February, the civil gas market in Shandong Province was staged in the Spring Festival, with different trends before and after the festival. Before the festival, the main trend was weak downward, and the post festival market was on a short roller coaster. In March, the LNG market changed its decline and returned to the rising route, and the civil gas market in Shandong Province increased significantly; But in mid March, it began to go down continuously, the rising situation was blocked, and the rebound market was not continued; Since the end of March, the LNG market is dominated by favorable factors and enters the upward channel again. In April, the civil market of liquefied gas continued to rise, and the price rose continuously, especially after the small and long holiday in Qingming, the civil gas market in Shandong began to push up continuously, with a large margin; But in late April, the civil LPG market showed “slide ride”, and the price fell 5-6% and remained stable basically. From the trend chart, it can be seen that the rise in late and early April is significantly different. Although the price is down a part from the early ten days, the current price of Shandong civil gas is relatively high, the downstream market atmosphere has recovered, the manufacturers are smooth to ship, most of the inventory is in controllable level. The market is still in a weak position, and the international crude oil is relatively weak. In addition, the weather temperature increases, and market demand is expected to weaken. According to the data monitoring of business agency, on February 18, the mainstream quotation of LNG Shandong market was 3900 yuan / ton, while that of April 28 daily was about 4173 yuan / ton, up about 15%.

Downstream demand: since then, the downstream demand has been general, not warm or hot. The “carbon peak” and “carbon neutralization” proposed by the two conferences this year have stricter and long-term sustainability requirements for environmental protection of production enterprises in various industries. Chemical enterprises have undergone strict environmental protection inspection, and many industries have stopped production and rectification from time to time. Many enterprises need to rectify. In terms of environmental protection, there should be certain demand for environmental protection products. Water treatment products have their application limitations, The demand for air purification products may be slightly lower than that of atmospheric emission purification products. According to several enterprises, the demand this year has been warm and hot, and the production is constantly suspended and rectified. The pressure of enterprises is relatively high, and some small enterprises may be eliminated.

Post market forecast: business analysis believes that the price of raw materials has been rising in the context of inflation caused by the release of water from the Central Bank of the world. In recent years, the situation of epidemic in some overseas areas is serious, and under the influence of multiple international factors such as Sino US relations, there may be stage differentiation in various industries. For the chemical industry, under the environmental protection policy requirements of “carbon peak” and “carbon neutralization” in 2021, the chemical industry will face strict rectification. With the gradual introduction and implementation of relevant policies, the environmental protection requirements will continue to be strict in the later period, and the technical requirements for relevant enterprises will be raised; Petrochemical enterprises are also facing strict rectification, and the technical threshold is constantly rising; The production stop and rectification action is frequent, and the supply side can not be affected. In the case of large inventory consumption, the price has been expected to rise. In conclusion, in the future market, the price of polychloride will be stable under the condition that the current demand is general and the inventory is sufficient; The long-term environmental inspection will inevitably aggravate the survival of the fittest of production enterprises. Only by improving the technical level as soon as possible and meeting the environmental protection requirements as soon as possible, can enterprises maintain long-term and effective development.

Commodity index: the polyacrylamide commodity index was 94.20 on April 28, which was flat with yesterday, down 12.07% from 107.13 (may 08, 2019), the highest point in the cycle, and 13.64% higher than the lowest point of 82.89 on August 02, 2020（ Note: cycle refers to April 1, 2019 to present)

Data show that since the end of the Spring Festival holiday in 2021, the water treatment manufacturers in Henan main production area will resume production after the year. In the next month, due to the huge increase of acrylonitrile cost, the market of polyacrylamide will go up all the way, with an upward range of more than 10%; At the end of March, it slightly corrected, and the range dropped to within 10%. In the middle of April, the water treatment manufacturers in Henan main production area continued to stop production due to environmental protection inspection started in mid March, and went through the repeated production stoppage and resumption of production intermittently, and finally resumed production in late April. Polyacrylamide has been in a small upward trend since April. The price of polyacrylamide cations in China (molecular weight 12 million and ionic degree 10-30) has been adjusted from 15116.67 yuan / ton to 15416.67 yuan / ton, with a range of 1.98%. Among them, the continuous production of production in the middle of April caused some manufacturers’ shortage of goods. Although the overall inventory is relatively sufficient and the demand is not warm, the local shortage of goods also has a certain impact on the market. The highest price after the year was about 15433 yuan / ton, the lowest point was 13883 yuan / ton when the work was resumed after the year, with a phased increase of 11%.

Upstream raw materials: since February, driven by the rising cost of raw materials and supply shortage, the price of acrylonitrile has been rising all the way, and the domestic price has reached the highest level in nearly five years: the mainstream quotation on February 18 is 12100 yuan / ton, 16500 yuan / ton in March 10 daily, up 4500 yuan / T, with a range of 36%; However, since mid March, influenced by the lower upstream price, the price of the upstream was lowered by 250 yuan / ton on the 15th, the mainstream market quotation was reduced to 16300 yuan / T, and Shanghai Secco cut the price by 300 yuan / T to 16000 yuan / ton on the 26th; In April, the domestic mainstream market price of acrylonitrile continued to decline, and the price remained stable at about RMB 14400 / T at the end of the month, with a downward range of 10%.

Secondly, natural gas is used in the production process. In February, the civil gas market in Shandong Province was staged in the Spring Festival, with different trends before and after the festival. Before the festival, the main trend was weak downward, and the post festival market was on a short roller coaster. In March, the LNG market changed its decline and returned to the rising route, and the civil gas market in Shandong Province increased significantly; But in mid March, it began to go down continuously, the rising situation was blocked, and the rebound market was not continued; Since the end of March, the LNG market is dominated by favorable factors and enters the upward channel again. In April, the civil market of liquefied gas continued to rise, and the price rose continuously, especially after the small and long holiday in Qingming, the civil gas market in Shandong began to push up continuously, with a large margin; But in late April, the civil LPG market showed “slide ride”, and the price fell 5-6% and remained stable basically. From the trend chart, it can be seen that the rise in late and early April is significantly different. Although the price is down a part from the early ten days, the current price of Shandong civil gas is relatively high, the downstream market atmosphere has recovered, the manufacturers are smooth to ship, most of the inventory is in controllable level. The market is still in a weak position, and the international crude oil is relatively weak. In addition, the weather temperature increases, and market demand is expected to weaken. According to the data monitoring of business agency, on February 18, the mainstream quotation of LNG Shandong market was 3900 yuan / ton, while that of April 28 daily was about 4173 yuan / ton, up about 15%.

Downstream demand: from 2021 to now, especially after, from mid February to mid March, the upstream raw material price has greatly increased, and the cost of polyacrylamide increases greatly. The polyacrylamide as downstream products will rise accordingly, and the procurement cost of downstream enterprises will increase greatly, and the procurement will not be active. In the early years, water treatment projects have not been restored, demand is weak, and polyacrylamide market is not good. Although the production period of environmental protection impact is from mid March to mid April, although inventory consumption is consumed, the demand has not changed much; This month, demand is still warm and hot. The change of polyacrylamide market this month is only affected by the inventory of each plant when the production is stopped.

Post market forecast: business community analysis shows that the domestic economy is stable and good at present, but the global macro-economy is affected by more uncertain factors under the influence of the peripheral, especially the recent epidemic has a serious impact on Southeast Asia. In addition to the obvious impact of inflation, the overall demand of overseas markets has weakened, which has a very obvious impact on multi industry, and then transmitted to the production links of multiple industries; Polyacrylamide, as an environmental protection water treatment product, is closely related to the environmental protection requirements of multi industry, and the demand is affected greatly. Secondly, under the national environmental protection objectives and regulatory requirements this year, environmental protection inspection is severe in all regions. Gongyi District, Henan, as the main production area of water treatment products, has also stopped production for rectification for about one month, but the inventory impact is not very large, especially after the resumption of production in the middle of the month, the supply is sufficient; According to the business society, some manufacturers in Gongyi area stop production again due to environmental protection factors, but the production stoppage is only partial. According to the analysis of local senior people, some manufacturers can not support the environmental protection factors, and strict requirements of policies will inevitably optimize the production organization, and some small factories may be eliminated. It is suggested that relevant manufacturers start from the overall situation view, Improve the production technology level as soon as possible, meet the environmental protection requirements, and maintain the long-term survival and development of the enterprise. In the latter market, if the production of related industries is continuously affected, the demand for water treatment projects can not be improved. In the short term, the market is stable, and the demand is still needed to be driven in the medium and long term.