Magnesium market trend

On July 30, 2020, the price of magnesium ingot (99.9%, no pickling, simple packaging) in the main production areas of China will run smoothly, with the overall range of 12800-13100 yuan / ton, and the actual order negotiation is the main one.

The specific price ranges of each region are as follows:

The ex factory spot exchange including tax in fugu district is 12800-13000 yuan / ton; Taiyuan is 12900-13000 yuan / ton; Wenxi district is 13000-13100 yuan / ton; Ningxia is 12800-12950 yuan / ton.

The magnesium ingot is the original magnesium ingot of national standard (GB / t3499-2011); it is not pickled, has no wooden pallet and does not pay the acceptance price, and the actual order negotiation is the main one.

According to the data of the business agency, the average price of the domestic market on the 30th was 12933.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.72% compared with the average price of 13433.33 yuan / ton in the market at the beginning of July (7.1), and 14166.67 yuan / ton in the market at the beginning of the year (1.1), a decrease of 8.71%. In recent years, the price of magnesium ingot is stable, and the quotation of mainstream production area is basically unchanged.

In 2020, the price of magnesium ingot will decline all the way. Since the middle of April, the price fluctuation tends to be stable, and the quotation range is between 12800-13400 yuan / ton.

The rebound of magnesium ingot price is weak, mainly due to the drag of overseas demand.

According to the data of the General Administration of customs, from January to June 2020, the export volume of magnesium products with six tax codes totaled 208000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.50%, and the total export amount reached 492 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 18.86%;

Among them, the export volume of magnesium ingot was 114400 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.41%.

The cost of magnesium ingot is stable or normal on the base and demand side

At present, the price of magnesium ingot is relatively low, and the mainstream transaction price in the market has approached 12850 yuan / T. due to the influence of cost factors, the willingness of mainstream manufacturers to stand up for prices has increased. Due to the obstruction at the export end, domestic customers just need to purchase, and middlemen purchase sporadically, fast in and fast out, so it is difficult for the demand side to improve significantly in the short term; supply pressure still exists in the short term.

After the price of magnesium ingot fell in July, it began to stabilize recently. It is learned that at present, there is not much trading in the market. Domestic downstream manufacturers have relatively sufficient stock in the early stage. At present, they basically purchase on demand and have little willingness to stock up in large quantities. Due to the influence of cost factors, magnesium ingot manufacturers are willing to reduce the price and promote sales, and the willingness to stop production and repair is relatively higher, and the market supply-demand game tends to be stable. It is expected that some factories will shut down for maintenance in the later stage, and the magnesium price at the supply side will be favorable to some extent. However, based on the reality of weak demand, it is expected that the later stage will run smoothly or become normal. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the change of downstream purchasing rhythm.

According to the monitoring of bulk data of business agency, affected by high market cost, the East China ethyl acetate Market rose steadily in July. As of July 29, the average price of enterprises in East China was about 5600 yuan / ton, up 1.13% compared with the beginning of the month and 2.42% higher than the same period of last month.

This month, the domestic ethyl acetate market started stable as a whole, and the spot supply was sufficient, but the downstream market was in the off-season, and the purchase of ethyl acetate was limited, and the market supply exceeded the demand. However, due to the high production cost of enterprises, the price of ethyl acetate passively followed.

In terms of raw materials, the acetic acid market remained high in the month. Affected by the negative impact of enterprise maintenance, the spot supply in the market was tight, and the enterprises had a good attitude of keeping up prices. At present, it was in a wait-and-see situation after the rise. However, with the expected increase of future supply, the long-term outlook may be downward. The high level of ethanol market is strong, and the price rise of raw material corn supports the rise of ethanol price. At present, most enterprises mainly consume the stock purchased in the early stage, and the price of ethanol slows down. At present, the price of ethanol is about 6150 yuan / ton.

Internationally, the overall performance of international ethyl acetate is relatively stable, among which the port price of European market is about 750 euro / ton; the port price of North American market is about 610-660 US dollars / ton.

According to the analysts of ethyl acetate of the business club, the oversupply of domestic ethyl acetate market continues to intensify, and the main reason for the high price is the high production cost. In the future market, we need to pay attention to the price fluctuation of acetic acid and ethanol market, and it is expected to be stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the average price of liquefied natural gas on July 29 was 2463.33 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week, increased by 0.82% compared with the beginning of the month, increased by 0.14% month on month, and decreased by 23.81% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In July, the domestic LNG market rose slightly, but the price was always hovering at a low level with limited fluctuation, and the way up was extremely difficult. At the beginning of the month, the price was running smoothly. Since the middle of the month, due to the high inventory of the liquid plant in the early stage, the manufacturer reduced the price to clear the warehouse, and the shipment was improved. At the same time, considering the cost, the enterprise adjusted the price according to the trend, but the increase was not large, and the price adjustment range was mostly within 50 yuan. After the rise, it faced the situation of callback, and the price was in a sticky state, with a dilemma. Near the end of the month, the market is relatively calm, affected by special events in Xinjiang, shipment pressure, price down. At present, the supply side is still in a relaxed state. In terms of early maintenance enterprises, Huanggang, Hubei Province, etc. shut down. The surrounding areas are supported by this favorable situation, and the prices rise. However, the demand in the off-season consumption is not high, and it is difficult to boost the market by suppressing part of the demand by superimposing the plum rain season in the south. In the short term, the trend of domestic LNG market tends to be stable and mainly fluctuates in a narrow range.

The following are some maintenance enterprises for reference:

Recovery plan for the change of plant capacity (10000 m3 / D)

Hubei Huanggang 500 was shut down on the 24th and the sales on the 26th, scheduled for 30-40 days of maintenance

Inner Mongolia Zhengtai Yida 300, shut down for maintenance on July 24, planned 10-15 days

Heilongjiang Sanju longpeng 18 July 20 to be closed

Shuntianda in Yangcheng, Shanxi Province – shut down on the 23rd and stop selling on the 24th for about 20 days

Shouyang, Shanxi Province: 50 July 28th to be closed

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of July 29, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas was about 2460 yuan / ton, that of Inner Mongolia was about 2470 yuan / ton, that of Shaanxi was 2480 yuan / ton, that of Shanxi was 2490 yuan / ton, and that of Xinjiang was 3200 yuan / ton.

Enterprise capacity (10000 m3 / D) up and down from July 29 to July 1

Inner Mongolia Shitai 55 2430 yuan / ton 2400 yuan / ton 30 yuan

Star energy 100 2460 yuan / ton 2450 yuan / ton 10 yuan

Inner Mongolia Sentai 120 2520 yuan / ton 2470 yuan / ton 50 yuan

Zhongyuan green energy 300 2500 yuan / ton 2480 yuan / ton 20 yuan

Shengdazizhou: 1002480 yuan / ton—

Dazhou Huixin: 100 2750 yuan / ton: 2750 yuan / ton

Ningxia Hongxing 100 2580 yuan / ton 2500 yuan / ton 80 yuan

Qinshui Xinao — 2400 yuan / ton 2460 yuan / ton – 60 yuan

Xinjiang Qinghua ￥ 30 3200 / T ￥ 3700 / T-500

The downstream methanol market is in a narrow range. In the later stage, the port inventory will accumulate again, and the high inventory will continue to suppress the methanol price; in the early stage, some maintenance devices have been resumed and restarted, and the supply side is expected to increase in the near future; the inventory of some downstream enterprises is on the high side, and the downstream market is not able to catch up with the high price, and the overall transaction atmosphere becomes weak, so it is expected that the domestic methanol market may decline in the short term.

Liquid ammonia, domestic liquid ammonia Market Trend differentiation, some areas of the price downward range is larger, such as the main production area of Shandong prices fell significantly, Hebei region followed the Shandong market also downward. It is expected that with the resumption of production of some urea plants in the future market, the amount of ammonia in Shandong can be effectively controlled, and the price may stabilize and rebound. Other regions, such as Hebei, are also expected to rise. Affected by the balance of supply and demand, the price of liquid ammonia in Northeast and Northwest China is likely to maintain stability.

In the last ten days of July, the market situation of urea in Shandong was mainly fluctuated. Urea analysts from the business club believe that the current agricultural demand is low, and the downstream industry is generally enthusiastic about urea procurement. Although there is support from the printing mark, the support is weak, and it is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly.

Recently, the dichloromethane market in Shandong has been rising steadily. As of the 29th, the mainstream quotation of dichloromethane market is 2230-2280 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation of chloroform market is about 1950 yuan / ton. At present, the supply of dichloromethane market is limited, and the demand of downstream market is fair, but it is still flat in the long term, and it is expected to rise slightly in the short term. At present, the upstream liquid chlorine market is high and firm, which supports the price of methane chloride well; the overall purchasing demand of downstream market is flat, and the game between supply and demand is strong.

3、 Future forecast

LNG analysts from the business club believe that: the domestic LNG market rose as a whole in July. However, the rising space in the off-season consumption is limited, and the price is always hovering at a low level. In the short term, it is expected that the price will remain low and stable. With the maintenance plan of some liquid plants in the future market, the on-site supply will decrease, which may boost the market and usher in a wavelet upward trend.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic polyester filament market continued to decline in July, and the downstream weaving factories made proper replenishment, and the price rose slightly at the end of the month. At present, the price of polyester POY (150D / 48F) is 5000-5200 yuan / ton, FDY (150D / 96F) is 5500-5650 yuan / ton, and DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) is 6300-6900 yuan / ton.

Average price rise and fall of polyester filament Market in July, unit: yuan / ton

Products: July 1, 2020 to July 29, 2020

Month up / down year on year

Polyester POY (150D / 48F) 5492 5080 – 7.51% – 36.21%

Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) 5590 5921 – 5.60% – 29.89%

Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) 7101 6645 – 6.42% – 28.99%

Since the middle and late June, domestic polyester filament prices have been exploring. In July, the cash flow of most polyester filament varieties is in deficit. Taking poy150d / 48F as an example, the cash flow maintained at around 300 yuan / ton in the middle of June. After the end of June, the cash flow continued to narrow. In July, the cash flow was in a loss situation, with a loss of more than 400 yuan / ton by the end of the month. In summer, polyester filament demand is mostly off-season, and enterprise inventory will also reach the peak of the year. This year, affected by public health events, the inventory pressure of polyester filament enterprises continues to increase, and high inventory has become a common problem. At present, the overall inventory of polyester market is concentrated in 30-40 days. In terms of specific products, POY inventory is up to 10-16 days, FDY inventory is around 21-27 days, and DTY inventory is about 29-39 days.

In the raw material market, oil prices are supported by the OPEC + crude oil production reduction agreement. However, the factors restricting the continued rise of crude oil are still the demand concerns. The crude oil price in July has significantly narrowed. As of July 28, the closing price of WTI main contract was 41.04 USD / barrel, up 3.06% compared with the beginning of the month. As of July 28, Asian PX (CFR China) closed at US $558 / T, up 3.14% from the beginning of the month. Recently, overseas units have come to an end and are being restarted gradually. The domestic start-up load is basically stable. At present, PX is still in a deficit state. With the recovery of plants, PX inventory has been significantly accumulated, and the domestic social inventory has reached a high level of 2.5 million tons. The domestic PTA Market weakened in July. As of July 29, the average market price was 3554 yuan / ton, down 1.47% compared with the beginning of the month, and 36.42% lower than that at the beginning of the month. The new unit was put into operation, the terminal demand was weak, the supply was increased, the inventory was high, the fundamentals were under negative pressure, the price fluctuated downward, the cost support and terminal demand were purchased on bargain at the end of the month, and the tail showed a slight recovery.

The double drop of domestic and foreign trade orders has further intensified the contradiction between supply and demand of textile raw materials such as polyester filament. Enterprises in downstream weaving and other fields are more and more willing to reduce production, reduce load and take holidays. At present, the startup rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces has been reduced to around 55%, which is at a low level compared with the same period last year. Textile printing and dyeing enterprises have already replenished autumn and winter fabric raw materials in advance at the end of the second quarter. Since July, orders of enterprises have been out of stock, and the inventory level of cost and raw materials is on the high side. Some enterprises have reached the highest level in recent years. The willingness of enterprises to continue to prepare goods is not strong, and polyester filament enterprises are also facing the situation of shortage of orders. Recently, for example, the transaction volume of polyester fabrics in the traditional market of China Light and textile city has declined, the transaction volume of imitation silk fabrics with polyester filament as the main raw material in summer has decreased sharply, and the transaction volume of medium and thick fabrics in autumn is still relatively limited, and the price is stable and slightly down.

At the end of the textile and clothing market, public health events at home and abroad are still fermenting, and residents’ demand for clothing, home textiles and other non necessities continues to decline. It is understood that in June, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats and knitwear were 105.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.1% compared with the same period last year. From January to June, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats and knitwear were 512 billion yuan, with a decrease of 19.6% over the same period. In terms of export, driven by the significant increase in the export of related anti epidemic materials such as masks and protective clothing, China’s textile and clothing exports achieved the first year-on-year positive growth in this year. According to China’s customs data, from January to June 2020, China’s textile and clothing cumulative export volume is 125.188 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 3.16%, of which the cumulative export of textiles is 74.103.3 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year increase of 27.81%. Textile and garment orders at home and abroad are decreasing day by day, and the export of China’s clothing products continues to decline. According to the customs data, from January to June 2020, China’s accumulated clothing exports amounted to US $51.084 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 19.39%, still continuing the downward trend, accounting for 40.8% of the total textile and clothing exports in the same period.

In the early days of xiaweiting, the textile industry was faced with low stock and low stock, which led to the increasing demand of textile enterprises. At present, some polyester filament enterprises have certain expectations of production reduction, but they have not announced the specific implementation time and the scale of production reduction and load reduction, and most enterprises are still waiting and waiting. At present, the rumors of polyester filament enterprises to reduce the load are gradually increasing in the industry, so it is necessary to pay attention to the situation of enterprises’ production reduction and load reduction. In addition, raw material PTA start-up and inventory are maintained at a high level, and the contradiction between supply and demand is difficult to improve under the background of off-season terminal, and the cost side support is limited. However, in the middle and late August, PTA plant maintenance increases and the terminal textile market ushers in the recovery of orders, and the inventory pressure may be reduced, which will boost the market to a certain extent. Therefore, it is expected that the polyester filament market is likely to fluctuate downward in August, but the possibility of recovery in the middle and late ten days is not ruled out.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of commodity data, the domestic isopropanol market went down all the way in July. At the beginning of the month, the average price of isopropanol in China was 11600 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 9650 yuan / ton. The price dropped by 16.81% within the month

2、 Market analysis

Domestic isopropanol market went down in July. It is mainly due to the reduction of foreign trade orders and the decline of order receiving price. In the international market, isopropanol continued to decline in the United States and European markets. The demand for isopropanol in the overseas disinfectant market was lower than before, and the overseas orders were reduced to varying degrees, and the price also fell accordingly. Domestic isopropanol market center of gravity down, more inquiries, mainly wait-and-see, take goods carefully. Up to now, the negotiation range of isopropanol in Shandong Province is about 9100-9500 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu Province is 9500-9600 yuan / ton. The negotiation range of isopropanol in South China is around 9800 yuan / ton.

Chart: comparison of acetone and isopropanol price trend in July

In terms of raw material acetone, the national acetone market continues to fall deeply. So far, the offer of acetone market in East China is 6800 yuan / ton, and there is still room for discussion on the actual order. At present, the on-site negotiation is cold and the purchasing mood of the terminal is not high. There is no minimum but a lower situation. At present, acetone lacks support for isopropanol, and the price of isopropanol and acetone is going down simultaneously.

In terms of raw material propylene, the market price of propylene in Shandong continued to decline. Up to now, the market turnover is between 6620-7000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6650 yuan / ton. Propylene manufacturers are now shipping flat, but there is no inventory pressure. Propylene cost support is also weak, isopropanol market prices began to tilt downward.

3、 Future forecast

Isopropanol analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe that: the prices of raw materials acetone and propylene are falling one after another, and the cost support of isopropanol is limited. International market, isopropanol market continued to decline. In terms of demand, the positive effects of foreign trade slowed down, the price of export orders declined, and the volume of orders received decreased significantly. There are many domestic enquiries, mainly wait-and-see, take the goods very carefully. Generally speaking, the price of isopropanol in the short term is likely to continue to decline, and the follow-up attention to the news changes.

Price trend:

According to the data from the bulk list of business associations, in late July, the domestic ABS market declined in a narrow range, and some spot prices in the market decreased. As of July 28, the mainstream offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 12900.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.64% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

In terms of styrene upstream of ABS, according to the monitoring of bulk data of business agency, the average offer of sample enterprises on Friday, July 28 was 5316.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.54% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month. According to reports, the current styrene inventory is still at a high level, and the short-term oversupply situation has not changed. In addition, the domestic styrene production line restarted more this month, and the risk of accumulation of stocks on the site affected the mentality of merchants. Downstream factories are still not enthusiastic about taking delivery of goods, and high price materials are under great pressure. It is expected that styrene will be mainly processed by shock. The market demand should pay close attention to the trend of crude oil price.

ABS upstream acrylonitrile, the recent domestic market continues to be weak, the market atmosphere is low. At the beginning of the month, it was reported that the operating rate of production enterprises was further improved, and the supply pressure in the market was further increased. At present, the acrylonitrile production plant reduces the load in order to divert the contradiction between supply and demand. Downstream just need to buy mainly, stock operation carefully. There is resistance in the shipment of merchants, and the actual transaction is less. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will be weak.

According to the monitoring price of business agency, as of July 28, the average price of domestic butadiene market was about 4234.44 yuan / ton, which was 22.90% higher than the average price level at the beginning of the month. Recently, there is a certain demand for butadiene downstream, and the northern market is rising. Merchants in East China are generally reluctant to sell at low prices, and the offer rises. Short term supply side and external disk news support, high price goods flooded the market, but the future stock supply is expected to increase, downstream stock preparation is more cautious, and the transaction is general. At present, it is difficult to find low-cost goods in the market, and the market offer may remain relatively strong due to the supplier LED market. It is expected that butadiene will rise in price in the near future

In recent years, ABS domestic market has been stable and falling. Although there is a rigid demand for support in the downstream in the first half of the month, the domestic ABS petrochemical plant is operating at almost full capacity. Although the existing inventory is at a low level, the on-site spot circulation began to increase. In addition, near the end of the month, businesses actively let profits and orders to complete the task, and the downstream factory stock operation turned to be cautious, and the demand was flat, resulting in a narrow range of decline in many brands.

Future forecast:

Business agency analysts believe that: in late July, the ABS market has fallen steadily, and the prices of various brands have been reduced in a narrow range. Cost side of the upstream three material recent trend is not the same, the cost side support is general. At present, ABS spot supply began to increase, downstream of high price ABS goods attitude is cautious, take goods just need to go single. At present, businesses are actively reducing the price to complete the task, and there is room for profit. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will continue to narrow down in the near future.

Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the cobalt price rose in July, and the cobalt market rose sharply since last week, and the cobalt price rose sharply for two consecutive trading days this week. As of July 28, the average price of cobalt was 269666.66 yuan / ton, up 9.25% from 246833.33 yuan / ton on July 20, and 7.29% higher than the average price of 251333.33 yuan / ton at the end of last week (July 26). The price of cobalt is soaring, and the cobalt market is booming again.

Non ferrous metal plate index

According to the statistics of business agency index, the nonferrous metal plate has been rising slowly since April. Since July, the nonferrous metal plate has risen in a straight line, and the market performance of the nonferrous metal plate is strong. Spot market nonferrous plate performance “positive heat”, good for cobalt market.

Capital flow of nonferrous metals

Stock market non ferrous metal plate up and down

Plate name: Rise and fall range, turnover rate, number of winners and losers

Non ferrous metals: 1.96% 3.20% 56.16

According to the statistics of capital flow in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, it can be seen that in recent 10 days, the capital flow of non-ferrous metal plate was active, the market hot money flow stimulated the cobalt market greatly, and the market bullish mentality was prominent. The non-ferrous plate of the stock market increased significantly, and the turnover was frequent, and the heat of the non-ferrous plate in the stock market was booming.

European new energy vehicle policy stimulates sales

During the epidemic period, European countries introduced economic stimulus policies for electric vehicles. In May, France announced an 8 billion automobile industry support plan to increase the amount of subsidy for bicycles; in June, Germany launched an economic stimulus plan of 130 billion yuan to increase the amount of subsidy for bicycles again; Greece and Spain issued subsidy plans for new energy vehicles; and in July, the Netherlands issued a subsidy plan for electric vehicles, which will last until 2025. Affected by policy stimulus, European sales doubled year on year in June, and monthly sales exceeded the pre epidemic level. In June, 81000 new energy vehicles were registered in 10 European countries, with a year-on-year increase of 96%. Among them, the sales of electric vehicles in Germany in June was 19000, with a year-on-year increase of 115% and a month on month increase of 51%; in France, 21000 vehicles were sold in June, with a year-on-year increase of 259% and a month on month rise of 193%; in June, the sales volume of 14000 vehicles in Britain increased by 261% year-on-year and 331% month on month. The sales of new energy vehicles increased greatly, which stimulated the cobalt market. Cobalt market rising momentum increased.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at the business agency, believes that after the epidemic, with the recovery of the domestic economic environment, the production and sales of new energy vehicles and mobile phones in China have gradually recovered; while in the international market, in order to stimulate the economy, many governments have introduced economic stimulus policies. European markets are stimulated by policies, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased greatly, which is good for the future market of cobalt market. Recently, the non-ferrous metal trading in the stock market has been active, and the non-ferrous plate in the spot market has increased significantly. Hot money from the market has entered the non-ferrous metal market. The bullish mentality of the non-ferrous plate is highlighted. As a small metal product, cobalt is easy to be concerned by hot money, which sets off a new wave of investment boom. Under the stimulation of good news, the cobalt price may hit a short-term peak, but the overall supply and demand of the cobalt market is not unbalanced. The rising support of the cobalt Market at the supply and demand side is insufficient, and the cobalt price is difficult to impact the 300000 peak in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, since July, the terminal demand for hydrogen peroxide has become weak, the rigid demand of caprolactam enterprises has declined, and the price of hydrogen peroxide has not been driven to rise. As of July 27, the average market price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide has fallen below the 1000 yuan mark, which has dropped by 8.97% compared with 1040 yuan / ton in early July.

Let’s specifically analyze the reasons for the sharp drop of hydrogen peroxide in July 2020

At the beginning of July, the hydrogen peroxide market was still supported by the favorable June. Some manufacturers have resumed parking and maintenance, but the market supply has not been fully recovered. The manufacturers still hold up their prices, and the hydrogen peroxide prices are tentatively rising. The average price of mainstream market was 1050 yuan / ton, and the price increased by 0.96%. Then the price of hydrogen peroxide gradually stabilized, and the price continued to operate stably.

In the middle and late July, the operating rate of hydrogen peroxide enterprises increased and the tight market supply situation was eased. The market of terminal caprolactam was dragged down by the market of raw materials, and its own demand was low. The price of terminal caprolactam dropped by more than 7% all the way. Similarly, in the paper industry, after the end of centralized stock, the paper market has been stable. Hydrogen peroxide terminal caprolactam market weakened, hydrogen peroxide price also opened a downward channel, the price continued to fall, the weekly decline was about 50 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market fell below 950 yuan / ton, down nearly 9%.

The company’s name fell on July 27 compared with the beginning of July

Shijiazhuang Baipo Zhengyuan fertilizer Co., Ltd. 900 yuan / ton 180 yuan / ton

Luxi Chemical Group 920 yuan / ton 280 yuan / ton

Anhui Quansheng Chemical Co., Ltd. 1020 yuan / ton 30 yuan / ton

Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co., Ltd. 950 yuan / ton 100 yuan / ton

Hangzhou Mingxin hydrogen peroxide Co., Ltd. 1100 yuan / ton unchanged

Hydrogen peroxide analysts believe that: terminal caprolactam market downturn, demand pressure, the paper market has gone up, in the short term, hydrogen peroxide market has little room to rise, or will continue to fall.

Data show that the natural rubber commodity index on July 24 was 31.32, unchanged with yesterday, 68.68% lower than 100.00 (2011-09-01), and 14.81% higher than 27.28, the lowest point on April 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Figure 2: price trend of natural rubber mainstream from January to July 2020

From the beginning of January to June 2020, the overall market of natural rubber showed a downward trend and then a small upward trend. The price of natural rubber at the end of March and the beginning of April was a periodic bottom. In May, the Tianjiao Jedi rebounded and fluctuated upward. In June, it continued the upward trend of last month and first rose to the recent highest point. Then, due to insufficient demand support, the price turned downward, and then there was a certain degree of shock rebound. The current month closed About ten thousand yuan. According to the data of natural rubber (bid 1) in East China monitored by the business agency, in July, the mainstream quotation of Baodao whole milk market was about 10089 yuan / ton on the 1st day and 10560 yuan / ton on the 24th, up 4.67% so far this month. Among them, the price of 10560 yuan / ton on the 16th and 24th was the highest price so far this month, and the 10089 yuan / ton on the 1st day was the lowest price of this month, with the largest earthquake amplitude of 4.67%.

Factor analysis:

First, the production of new glue. 2020 is a special year. In previous years, it should be a time when a large number of new gum have been put on the market. However, this year, affected by weather disasters, diseases and insect pests, especially the epidemic situation, the production of natural rubber in China has to be delayed from January to February. However, the actual production is very small. At present, China’s domestic area has entered the rainy season, and the production of blister glue and new rubber is unlikely to be very large. In Xishuangbanna, this year’s total latex was almost never obtained. The second standard glue was in short supply in various years, and other brands of glue were often out of stock. In addition, the import index was not released, and the shortage of local supply in southern production areas continued for a long time. The epidemic prevention and control of rubber producing countries in Southeast Asia has achieved certain results, and some economic activities have recovered. In July, the weather in Southeast Asia was better, and the output of natural rubber increased month on month, which was lower than that of last year, but the overall tapping work was slow. Since the middle and late June, the rainfall in Thailand’s main production areas has decreased, and the output of raw materials has gradually increased, but the output is lower than that of the same period last year, the purchase price of glue has been lowered, the overall supply of raw materials is tight, the profit of rubber processing is relatively thin, and the shipping date of some standard rubber is delayed. Malaysia’s main production areas have good weather and normal tapping, and the output of raw materials has increased gradually, but the current production is lower than that in the same period of previous years. As the world’s largest latex glove producer, the demand for raw materials has increased significantly due to the epidemic situation. Indonesia’s main production area is in the peak season, but due to the closure of domestic and foreign tire and automobile manufacturing enterprises, many rubber processing plants are facing a sharp reduction in order pressure, which seriously affects the local tapping enthusiasm. Vietnam’s main production area is in the rainy season, but it has little impact on the overall output. The supply is basically normal, but the output is definitely lower than that in the same period in the past. At present, the supply of 3L rubber is increasing, but the inventory is still at a low level, which forms a certain support for the rubber price. The supply of Cambodia’s production areas is normal, but due to the strict control of border trade, the number of raw materials exported to Vietnam has decreased significantly.

Second, import and export. China’s imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 534000 tons in June 2020, up 21% year-on-year, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs on July 14. From January to June 2020, China imported a total of 3.313 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 1.9% compared with 3.075 million tons in the same period of 2019. According to the latest data released by Vietnam customs, the total rubber export volume of Vietnam in June 2020 was 136400 tons, up 82.11% month on month and 11.08% year on year; from January to June 2020, the total rubber export volume of Vietnam was 481600 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 21.81%. In June, the export volume to China was 109000 tons, with a month on month increase of 82.92% and a year-on-year increase of 59.48%; from January to June 2020, the total export volume to China was 339800 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.54%. In June, Vietnam rubber imports totaled 72200 tons, up 22.58% month on month. The above two groups of data show that China’s imports of natural rubber increased significantly in June, the production demand of enterprises was more active than in the earlier stage, and the market confidence was improved to a certain extent.

Third, inventory. As of the 24th, warehouse receipts and futures inventories of the exchange were 237846 tons and 230140 tons, respectively, down 5041 tons and 970 tons from last week. It is reported that the dominant inventory of Qingdao and Shanghai ports and the hidden inventory of production and marketing areas are about 1.1 million tons. It is estimated that the stock of natural rubber in China will reach about 1.5 million tons. The inventory of natural rubber in East China is still high. This is in sharp contrast to the shortage of goods in Yunnan.

Fourth, downstream demand. On July 16, the operating rate of all steel tire enterprises was 68.83%, up 0.53% from the previous week; the operating rate of semi steel tire enterprises was 64.74%, up 0.59% from the previous week. The overseas epidemic situation is repeated, and the recovery of tire export orders is slow, and the uncertainty is large in the later stage. It is reported that at present, the domestic market demand is occupied by the first-line tire brand promotion. The inventory of some manufacturers in Shandong Province has increased. With the advent of the rainy season, the production and sales of tire manufacturers are impacted, and the operating rate of the tire industry is expected to return. In addition, some tire enterprises usually arrange equipment maintenance in the hot season of July and August, and it is expected that the operating rate of the tire industry will decline slightly in the future. From the perspective of foreign markets, in the first half of 2020, the demand for new cars in European passenger car market will shrink by 39.5% to 5101669 units. Among the five major markets, Spain had the largest decline of 50.9%; Germany had the smallest decline of 34.5%; Italy, the United Kingdom and France had 46.1%, 48.5% and 38.6% respectively. Globally, with the lifting of the epidemic blockade and the restart of economic activities, automobile sales slowly recover. However, the China Automobile Industry Association predicts that China’s automobile sales will fall by 10% – 20% this year. According to the prediction of Bloomberg intelligence, the automobile sales in Europe are expected to drop by 20% this year. Tire demand is worrying.

Fifth, regional differences. As early as the middle of May, the situation of shortage of natural rubber in Yunnan, especially in Banna, began to appear in the middle of May. All kinds of local rubber were in short supply, which led to the continuous firmness of rubber price. According to local traders, the delay in listing of new rubber this year and the fact that some import indexes have not been released in previous years have resulted in the shortage of local supply. At the end of last month and in the middle of this month, the Many articles have analyzed the regional differences of domestic natural rubber market in detail. As in July, this situation still exists, resulting in the regional transmission of goods. The shortage of goods in Banna is still severe. Local traders say that at present, the local tapping volume is not large, and the supply is short, especially the second standard rubber. The new standard second rubber in 2020 has never been obtained, and the original plan of large-scale listing of new rubber has not been realized.

Sixth, trade friction. On June 12, the U.S. Department of Commerce released the preliminary findings of the fourth review on anti-dumping of passenger car and light truck tires against China. Two compulsory responding enterprises obtained 76.46% of the dumping duty rate for refusing to participate in the investigation, and seven enterprises received zero tax rate. On the 26th and 27th of last month, the Ministry of Commerce and industry of India issued a series of announcements to initiate anti-dumping investigations on China’s nitrile rubber and rubber additive px-13. Recently, the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) protested against the US tire anti-dumping investigation. FTI believes that the United States will seriously affect the Thai industry. Affected by the epidemic situation, Thai industry showed a shrinking trend in the first half of the year. Kriangli, chairman of the FTI, said that the investigation was affected by Sino US trade relations. In recent years, Thailand has continuously attracted foreign investment and established export bases for tire, food and other products. At present, five Chinese tire companies have invested in Thailand, and their main business is tire export. “The United States is observing this phenomenon and trying to set up trade barriers against Chinese products.” Kriangri said that the Thai government should closely monitor the situation and take measures to deal with the US anti-dumping charges. Previously, the United States determined that Thailand’s tire dumping margin was 106% – 218%. The U.S. Department of Commerce will issue the final ruling on November 9, saying that if Thai enterprises are found to have dumping practices, the United States will raise tariffs on related products. The FTI said the investigation opened on July 26 and Thailand would try to clarify the charges. The international economic situation is not smooth, which has a serious impact on the circulation of rubber products.

As for the future market, the analysis of the business agency believes that the growth of new rubber in the production area is slow, the recovery of foreign orders is unpredictable, and the contradiction between supply and demand is still prominent under the situation of high inventory and uncertain demand, and the possibility of a substantial price rise is small. But after all, the price of natural rubber has been at a low level for a long time, and the decline rate will not be great; the shortage of goods in Yunnan, especially in Banna, still supports the price, especially the local price. Under the comprehensive effect, maintain the view that the future market of natural rubber fluctuates slightly until a large number of new gum are listed.

Magnesium market trend

On July 27, 2020, the price of magnesium ingot (99.9%, no pickling, simple packaging) in the main production areas of China will run smoothly, with the overall range of 12800-13100 yuan / ton, and the actual order negotiation is the main one.

The specific price ranges of each region are as follows:

The ex factory spot exchange including tax in fugu district is 12800-13000 yuan / ton; Taiyuan is 12900-13000 yuan / ton; Wenxi district is 13000-13100 yuan / ton; Ningxia is 12800-12950 yuan / ton.

The magnesium ingot is the original magnesium ingot of national standard (GB / t3499-2011); it is not pickled, has no wooden pallet and does not pay the acceptance price, and the actual order negotiation is the main one.

According to the data of the business agency, the average price of the domestic market on the 27th was 12933.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.72% compared with the average price of 13433.33 yuan / ton in the market at the beginning of July (7.1).

After the price tends to be stable, the market should maintain stable operation

After the price of magnesium ingot fell in July, it began to stabilize recently. It is learned that at present, there is not much trading in the market. Domestic downstream manufacturers have relatively sufficient stock in the early stage. At present, they basically purchase on demand and have little willingness to stock up in large quantities. Due to the influence of cost factors, magnesium ingot manufacturers are willing to reduce the price and promote sales, and the willingness to stop production and repair is relatively higher, and the market supply-demand game tends to be stable. It is expected that some factories will shut down for maintenance in the later stage, and the magnesium price at the supply side will be favorable to some extent. However, based on the reality of weak demand, it is expected that the weak and stable operation will be given priority to in the later stage, and the change of downstream purchasing rhythm will be focused in the later stage.