1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, on the 12th, the spot nickel price was 111216.67 yuan / ton, down 1.97% from the previous trading day, 9.46% year-on-year and 2.21% lower than the beginning of the year. LME copper’s 3-month contract rose 1.07% to close at $6304 at the end of Asian trading. Shanghai nickel’s main market opened at 112270 yuan. After a small increase, the price rebounded and closed at 112300 yuan, up 0.15%. LME3 nickel closed at US $14155, up 1.22%.

2、 Market analysis

Standard & Poor’s, an international agency, raised the global nickel supply surplus to 11000 tons in 2020. Previously, domestic stainless steel prices rose sharply to drive some nickel demand, but in the short term, the overall supply of global nickel market is still surplus, and there is still pressure above the nickel price. In terms of demand, the actual terminal demand has not increased significantly, and the number of transactions has not changed significantly. Recently, due to the impact of imported cases from the Philippines, the quarantine of major ports has been strengthened. Lianyungang port, as the largest port for handling nickel ore, has been affected seriously. At present, the shipping date has not been affected, but the unloading and picking up cycle has become longer. If the epidemic continues, the quarantine will be strict and the duration will be longer, and the transportation vessels will be tense, and the shipping schedule may be delayed.

3、 Future prospects

Post market forecast: the nickel ore industry has pressure on the port, which supports the nickel price. However, the global overall supply is surplus, the actual demand of downstream has not increased significantly, and it is in the off-season of consumption. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate widely in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the business agency monitoring, the price of steam coal is lower. On August 11, the average port price of steam coal remained at 560 yuan / ton, while on August 1, the average price of steam coal was 573 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 2.23%, and a decrease of 4.6% compared with last year.

The commodity index of steam coal on August 10 was 67.71, down 0.45 points compared with yesterday, 34.27% lower than 103.01 points (2011-11-15), and 51.48% higher than 44.70 points, the lowest point on January 20, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of origin, the coal mine shipment in Shaanxi Province has been up and down, high-quality coal has been shipped faster, coal prices have been slightly increased, some coal blending varieties are unsalable, there are overstocked manufacturers, and the price is weak and low; the steam coal market in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia is mainly stable, some coal pipe tickets are used up at the end of the month, and the supply and demand of most of the coal mines are basically balanced. The coal market in northern Shanxi is stable in supply, normal in shipment, fair in local sales and stable in coal price.

In terms of downstream power plants: in recent days, the rainfall in southern China has decreased, the temperature has increased, and the power plant’s demand for steam coal has increased. However, due to the high inventory of power plants, the power coal is mainly purchased on demand at this stage. At present, the mainstream closing price of 5500 kcal steam coal is about 555-560 yuan / ton, and the closing price of 5000 kilocalories is about 502-507 yuan / ton. According to the data, as of August 4, the coal consumption of key power plants was 4.43 million tons, an increase of 830000 tons compared with the beginning of last month, and an increase of 410000 tons compared with the same period last year; the daily coal consumption of zheneng Electric Power Co., Ltd., one of the six coastal power plants, was 129000 tons on August 10, an increase of 6000 tons compared with 123000 tons at the beginning of last month, and a decrease of 3000 tons compared with the same period last year.

Business agency analysts believe that: in recent days, the weather in southern China has decreased, the temperature has increased, and the power plant’s demand for steam coal has increased. Due to the high inventory of the power plant, at this stage, the steam coal is mainly purchased on demand, and some terminals are mainly to go to the warehouse, so the purchasing pace is slowing down. In the process of downstream destocking, it is difficult for coal prices to have a good support. In the later stage, it is still necessary to wait and see the situation of a new round of replenishment in the market. It is comprehensively predicted that the short-term steam coal prices will still be dominated by the whole operation within the range, which depends on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price data:

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business associations, affected by the decline in supply, the price of bromine in Shandong continued to rise. As of August 11, the average price of bromine in Shandong was about 27666 yuan / ton, up 2.05% compared with the beginning of the month, and fell by 6.44% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: at present, the domestic bromine market is affected by the rainy season and enterprise maintenance, the spot supply of the market is tight, the downstream flame retardant and intermediate market is mainly on demand, the bromine enterprises have little inventory pressure, and the enterprises have good intention to pull up. At present, the mainstream bromine enterprises offer about 27500-28000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: sulfur market is high and firm, exploratory inquiry increases, some enterprises and traders are reluctant to sell goods, at present, about 690 yuan / ton; sulfuric acid market is stable, spot supply of the market is slightly decreased, and enterprise shipment situation is fair, about 427 yuan / ton; caustic soda Market is weak, the market starts smoothly, and the downstream market demand is flat, at present, about 475 yuan / ton. The main downstream flame retardant market purchase of bromine is still mainly based on rigid demand, and the market start-up is flat, and the industries such as pharmaceutical and pesticide intermediates are generally started, and the demand side does not support the price of bromine.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of bromine industry of business society believe that at present, the overall supply and demand of bromine market is in a tight balance state, enterprises’ inventory pressure is not big, and the price intention is good. However, in the long run, the demand in the downstream market is still weak, and there is insufficient support for bromine price. It is expected that the bromine price will rise steadily in a short time.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average price of coking coal in North China on August 11 was about 1353.33 yuan / ton, down 0.25% from July 1 and 15.33% from last year. The price of coking coal is mainly weak and stable.

The commodity index of coking coal on August 10 was 99.88, unchanged with yesterday, down 17.81% from 121.53 (March 12, 2019), and 122.40% higher than the lowest point of 44.91 on January 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

According to the business agency, the production of coking coal plant is normal, the start-up load is general, the downstream wait-and-see mood is relatively strong, the enterprise shipment is slow, the enterprise inventory is high, the overall coking coal price is mainly weak and stable, and the coking coal price still has a downward trend under pressure.

Demand: the coke market is running stably for a while, with a positive market mentality. The overall shipment situation of coking enterprises is good, the inventory of coke enterprises is low, and the market atmosphere is good. Recently, the profits of coking enterprises are good, and the environmental protection policies are relatively improved compared with the previous period. The coking enterprises have a high enthusiasm for starting work, the operating rate has been improved, the coke supply is stable, the coking enterprises are actively shipping, the downstream steel mills are starting higher, the coke inventory is higher, the demand for coke carbon is better, and the market is generally optimistic about the future market. In recent years, the port has high enthusiasm. The mainstream quotation of quasi grade I metallurgical coke is 1870-1900 yuan / ton, and the transaction price is about 1870 yuan / ton. Shandong Port coke spot operation is stronger, trade price temporarily stable, port inquiry pallet increase, no transaction. In terms of inventory, there are 230000 tons in Tianjin port this week, about 10000 tons lower than last week, and 980000 tons in Rizhao port this week, down 35000 tons compared with last week.

According to the coking coal analysts of the business society, the current coke price is mainly weak and stable temporarily, and the coking coal price is mostly purchased on demand. The downstream coke steel game continues to be white hot, and the coking coal inventory is still large. Under the general purchasing rhythm of the downstream coke enterprises for coking coal, the coking coal inventory is still high. The comprehensive forecast of short-term coking coal price or weak operation depends on the downstream market demand.

1、 Acrylic acid price trend

Figure: P value curve of acrylic acid products

2、 Market analysis

In the first ten days of August, the market of acrylic acid was stable. As of August 10, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 7083.33 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with August 1. Taking three months as a cycle, the price dropped by 4.28% year on year.

At present, the raw material propylene price is high, the cost pressure is rising, the downstream maintains the rigid demand purchase, the market atmosphere is light, the inquiry and the transaction are limited. The commodity index of acrylic acid on August 10 was 35.52, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 64.48% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and increased by 44.57% from the lowest point of 24.57 on November 26, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of acrylic acid of some enterprises in recent years (for reference only, the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated)

Enterprise market price specification date

Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd. 6800 yuan / T, line standard: common acid; grade: superior product: August 10, 2020

Aite (Shandong) new materials Co., Ltd. $6600 / T, industry standard: Pu acid; grade: superior product: August 10, 2020

Jinan Yuanxiang Chemical Co., Ltd. 6500 yuan / T, line standard: ordinary acid; grade: superior product: August 10, 2020

Jinan planhua Chemical Co., Ltd. 6600 yuan / T, line standard: ordinary acid; grade: superior product: August 10, 2020

Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. 7200 yuan / T, line standard: ordinary acid; grade: superior product: August 10, 2020

Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. 9800 yuan / ton of refined acid; content: 99.7%; 2020-08-10

Upstream propylene, as of August 10, the market price of propylene in Shandong still rose. According to the price chart of the business agency, the recent price of propylene fluctuates periodically, with a relatively stable price range. On August 10, the market turnover reached 7000-7250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was about 7000 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory of propylene manufacturers is not under pressure, the crude oil price is small and downward, and the downstream polypropylene futures market is ordinary, but the profit margin of propylene oxide and other industries is rising, and the overall market procurement is picking up, and the market is good. At present, the propylene market price has broken through the upper limit of the range, but due to the strong downstream support, it is expected that the propylene price may still have an upward probability.

3、 Future forecast

Acrylic acid analysts of the business community believe that the current market price of raw material propylene is high, the cost is under pressure, downstream demand procurement, inquiry and transaction are light, and it is expected that the acrylic acid market will be stable in the short term.

The upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid prices were stable, but the prices of aluminum fluoride remained stable. According to business agency data, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride on August 7 was 8833 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the month.

Recently, some fluorite manufacturers have reported that their goods are in poor condition, the downstream demand has not improved, and the fluorite price has dropped slightly. At the same time, the market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream has declined recently, and the downstream terminal is mainly purchased on demand, and the purchasing sentiment is not strong. Impact on the downstream aluminum fluoride Market and weaken the cost support.

At present, most enterprises are facing losses. Some factories are operating at a low load. The prices of aluminum fluoride Market remain stable as a whole. Some manufacturers have slightly reduced the ex factory prices of aluminum fluoride.

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of chemical branch of business society believe that: the price of upstream fluorite field is loose, aluminum fluoride manufacturers have a downward trend, and the price of aluminum fluoride is expected to fall steadily.

1、 Price trend:

According to the business club’s big list data, the domestic PA6 market continued to be weak in the first ten days of August, and most brand spot prices were reduced. As of August 10, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 from traders was about 10833.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.91% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

The price of caprolactam in the upstream of PA6 fell sharply in the first ten days of August. As of August 7, the average ex factory price was 9416 yuan / ton, down 1.22%. Raw material pure benzene by multiple positive boost, recent prices continue to rise. But pure benzene port inventory goes up, restricting the market to pick up. Caprolactam analysts believe that although the price of raw material pure benzene rose, but downstream demand performance is still weak, caprolactam market is not optimistic. It is expected that the price of caprolactam will be weak and stable in the short term.

PA6 continued the negative trend of July low in early August. The upstream caprolactam fell and the cost support weakened. PA6 consumption weakened, overall lack of good news to boost, price shocks fell. In terms of business operation, they prefer stable price delivery. Downstream factories follow up generally and have a heavy wait-and-see attitude. Their operation mainly focuses on low-cost replenishment and instant use, and their strategy tends to small-scale procurement.

3、 Future forecast:

Business agency analysts believe that: in early August, domestic PA6 market narrowly fell, and spot prices of various brands were adjusted. The upstream caprolactam had a significant downward trend, and the support for the cost side of PA6 was weakened. The demand of downstream factories is weak, just need to buy mainly, PA6 trading volume and consumption is weak, business mentality is not strong, there is profit reduction operation. It is expected that PA6 market will continue the weak trend in the near future.

1、 Trend analysis

On the 10th, the spot copper price was 50131.67 yuan / ton, down 2.63% from the previous trading day, up 7.47% year-on-year and 2.24% higher than the beginning of the year. LME copper’s 3-month contract rose 1.07% to close at $6304 at the end of Asian trading. Shanghai copper’s main contract in 2009 rebounded from the low and narrowed the decline, closing at 50230 yuan, down 2.09%.

Domestic downstream consumption is weakening seasonally, and short-term supply is increasing. At the supply end, Chile’s equivalent producer gradually recovers supply. Chile’s national copper industry Codelco restarted smelter and mine projects, while China’s large amount of imported copper materials flowed into the domestic shock market in July, and the recent inventory continued to accumulate. Last week, Shanghai copper inventory increased by more than 8%, and the accumulated stock increased by more than 8%, making the copper price under pressure.

In view of the above situation, the supply gradually recovered and the off-season effect of demand put pressure on copper prices. However, the registered warehouse receipts in LME copper market fell to a low level, and foreign demand recovered. It is expected that copper prices will mainly fluctuate at high levels.

Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic PA66 market was stable in the first ten days of August, and the range of rise and fall of various models of products was relatively narrow. As of August 10, the average price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding mainstream offer was about 18750.00 yuan / ton, a slight drop of 0.27% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Recently, adipic acid upstream of PA66 has been suffering from low demand. The low price of last month was stable, and the spot price was adjusted narrowly in the whole month, with a decline of only 1.78%. In August, although adipic acid demand did not improve, the spot price was at a low level and there was no inventory pressure and accumulation risk. The profit margin of merchants was not large, and the price was firm. It is expected that the market of adipic acid will be stable in the near future.

The cost of PA66 is generally supported by adipic acid from upstream. The supply in the market was still at a low level last month. At present, the operating rate of various manufacturers is stable, among which, Liaoyang Xingjia still stops production, Huafeng Group has a plant operating rate of 80000 tons per year, and Dandong youfiber Technology Co., Ltd. also has half of the units shut down, and Shenma industrial operation rate is 80%. The operating rate is not high, diverting considerable pressure of excess supply and stabilizing the spot price of PA66. At present, although the support of raw material price is not strong, it is relatively stable. The shipment situation of merchants is general, and the actual trading is still limited. The inquiry atmosphere of downstream factories has recovered, and the purchasing strategy has been maintained with the help of users, and the improvement degree of transaction is limited.

Business agency analysts believe: in early August, domestic PA66 market is stable and small. The spot price of adipic acid in the upstream is stable, which supports the cost of PA66 in general. The downstream inquiry situation has increased, and the improvement of demand is still limited. At present, the operating rate of domestic slicing plants has reduced the pressure of excess supply, and the situation of insufficient supply and actual trading is coexisting. The domestic market is actually in the post supply and demand contradiction. It is expected that the PA66 market will continue to operate smoothly in the short term.

According to the business agency data monitoring: this week, the price of lithium carbonate is basically stable, and the price of industrial carbon has slightly increased. On August 7, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 39900 yuan / ton, which was 0.5% higher than that at the beginning of the week and 1.01% higher than that on July 7; the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China on August 7 was 44900 yuan / ton, which remained unchanged compared with the beginning of the week and increased by 1.35% compared with July 7. On July 7, the mainstream quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market was around 35000-45000 yuan / ton, and that of battery grade lithium carbonate was around 40000-48000 yuan / ton.

This week, the downstream demand of the market has recovered, and the shipment situation of some enterprises has recovered. However, the strong bargaining attitude of customers makes the actual delivery price lower than the price quoted by the enterprise. At present, the inquiry of industrial grade lithium carbonate market is mainly based on low price inquiry, and the transaction increment is not obvious temporarily. The price of battery grade lithium carbonate is stable this week. Combined with the recent arrival of imported lithium carbonate in Hong Kong, the rising space is under pressure.

At present, as the price of lithium salt remains unchanged, the downstream power market orders increase, but it is difficult to drive up the price of iron and lithium, and the price of lithium iron phosphate remains unchanged. However, the domestic demand for lithium hydroxide is less and the transaction is sporadic. When the purchase price of large factories is stable in the third quarter and the market demand is limited, the willingness of upstream price adjustment is low. The industrial market demand is relatively stable, and the trading volume price has no significant fluctuation.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on August 6, 2020, there were 14 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall, including 1 commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the total number of commodities monitored in this plate; the top three commodities that increased were polysilicon (7.48%), propylene oxide (4.09%) and dichloromethane (1.35%). There were 10 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, with isopropanol (- 4.60%), chloroform (- 2.78%) and caustic soda (- 2.56%).

Lithium carbonate analysts of the business club believe that with the large number of imported lithium carbonate arriving in Hong Kong in August, the domestic lithium carbonate market price will have a certain impact. Coupled with the reduction of purification demand, industrial carbon price rise space pressure. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate in the future may be in the downward trend of stabilization.