After experiencing a roller coaster like market trend in January and February, the domestic acrylonitrile market has once again become flat since March, with prices fluctuating between 8000-9000 yuan/ton for most of the time. In May, the market amplitude further narrowed, hovering around 8500 yuan/ton with slight fluctuations.

In May, the capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry dropped to around 74%, which is basically the same as the capacity utilization rate during the price surge in January this year. However, due to changes in the total capacity base, the total capacity of acrylonitrile has increased from 4.399 million tons/year at the beginning of the year to 4.789 million tons/year currently (the 130000 ton and 260000 ton units of Yulong Petrochemical and Sinochem Quanzhou have been successfully put into operation in March and April), so the actual supply still maintains a growth trend. At the same time, due to the limited overall demand increment, the supply-demand relationship showed a weak trend in May, which also led to the low volatility of acrylonitrile prices even under cost pressure.
The overall supply of acrylonitrile is excessive, and the resources in various provinces are gradually saturated. Sinochem Quanzhou has filled the supply gap in Fujian. After Yulong Petrochemical is put into operation, the oversupply pattern in the Shandong market has further intensified. Among the four major consumer regions of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, and Jilin, Zhejiang and Jilin are still in a state of supply shortage and tight balance. However, in June, the 400000 ton Zhenhai Refining and Chemical and the 260000 ton Jilin Petrochemical capacity expansion units will also be put into operation, and the supply in each major consumer region will be fully utilized.
If the 130000 ton plant of INEOS (Tianjin) is successfully put into operation in the second half of the year, coupled with the input of surplus resources from surrounding provinces, the consumption in Hebei and Tianjin areas will also be covered, and the cross regional circulation of acrylonitrile will gradually decrease.
Looking at the whole year of 2025, the total new production capacity of acrylonitrile will reach 1.31 million tons per year. The main growth area of demand is still the downstream ABS industry, but the actual implementation of new production capacity may not meet expectations. Overall, the oversupply of acrylonitrile in 2025 is expected to intensify, and the supply variables caused by unplanned parking and load reduction will increase. In this context, the frequency of price fluctuations may increase, but the amplitude may further narrow.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on May 30th, the reference price for the domestic silicon metal # 441 market was 8780 yuan/ton. Compared with May 1st (the market price for silicon metal # 441 was 9880 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 1100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.13%.

From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in May, the overall domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 showed a weak downward trend. In May, the focus of the spot market for silicon metal continued to decline, and the focus of on-site negotiations was continuously lowered. As of May 30th, the reference market price for silicon metal 441 in East China was around 8500-8800 yuan/ton, in Kunming it was around 9100-9300 yuan/ton, and in Tianjin it was around 8300-8600 yuan/ton. The market price reference for metallic silicon 441 # in Sichuan region is around 8400-8600 yuan/ton. The market price reference for metallic silicon 441 # in Shanghai is around 8900-9200 yuan/ton..
Market influencing factors
In terms of supply and demand: In May, the domestic silicon metal market still showed a weak supply-demand situation. During the month, the overall operating rate of the silicon metal market was low, and due to supply pressure, some silicon companies had extremely low operating volumes. The overall support provided by the supply side to the silicon metal market was weak. The overall recovery of downstream demand market is slow, with cautious demand performance. The demand side has limited procurement of raw materials, and the support provided by the demand side to the market is also insufficient.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the trading and negotiation atmosphere in the metal silicon market is relatively weak, and there is a certain wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The downstream stocking pace is relatively slow. Business Society’s metal silicon data analyst predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

Aluminum prices rebound in May

Aluminum prices rebounded in May. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 29, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20396.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.61% from the market average price of 20073.33 yuan/ton on May 1.
Macro positive support
In mid May, the sentiment in the commodity market rebounded due to the positive news of tariffs from the China US Geneva talks.
According to the consensus of the Geneva talks between China, the United States, and Japan, the US will lower its tariffs on China to 10% starting from May 14th and suspend the implementation of the 24% tariff measure for 90 days. This directly alleviates the pressure on domestic aluminum exports, especially benefiting the demand for transit trade such as photovoltaic modules and automotive parts. Because in 2024, although China’s direct export of aluminum materials to the United States accounted for less than 5%, the proportion of aluminum products transshipped through Mexico and Canada exceeded 30%. The tariff reduction will repair the resilience of this part of the supply chain, and the market is optimistic about the recovery of export orders in the second half of the year, thereby increasing demand expectations for aluminum ingots.
Fundamental Overview
The recent supply and demand fundamentals are still good. In May, the domestic aluminum ingot supply was relatively stable, and demand showed differentiation. There is some support in the new energy sector and export demand, but the demand in traditional sectors such as construction is weak, and inventory continues to decrease.
Inventory data
The mainstream inventory of domestic aluminum ingots is in a destocking cycle. As of May 26th, the mainstream inventory of domestic aluminum ingots is 534000 tons, far lower than the 643000 tons in mid May and the 774000 tons at the end of April, indicating a continuous destocking trend.

1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices fluctuated widely in May. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 77996.67 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the copper price fluctuated to 78556.67 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 0.72% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.05%.
According to the Business Society’s current chart, copper spot prices in May were mostly higher than futures prices, with the main contract being the expected price two months later, and the expected future price may be under pressure.
According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory decreased significantly in May. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 162150 tons, down 18% from the beginning of the month.
Macroscopically, the trade policies in May have been fluctuating, and the macro fundamentals have not substantially improved. At present, there are variables in the trade negotiations between the United States and Europe. The European Central Bank has made it clear that attention should be paid to the downside risks of the trade war on the eurozone economy, and hinted that the June July interest rate meeting may suspend interest rate cuts. This statement resonates with the Federal Reserve’s call for maintaining interest rate stability, and the rebound of the US dollar index poses a short-term pressure on copper prices.
Supply side: A large copper mine in Congo has been shut down due to an accident, causing concerns in the market about short-term supply tightening. Although the global supply margin of refined copper is widening, the increase in mining interference rate coupled with the expansion of negative spot TC (processing fee) suggests that the upstream resource shortage has not fundamentally eased, and the continuous decline in LME inventory also confirms the pressure on the supply side.
Downstream: In May, terminal consumption showed a differentiation pattern of “weak cables and strong home appliances”: cable enterprise orders weakened month on month, reflecting a slowdown in the pace of infrastructure investment landing; The home appliance sector maintained production intensity due to export resilience, but overall demand intensity was weaker than expected at the beginning of the month. High copper prices have suppressed downstream procurement, resulting in limited inventory demand before the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Downstream customers only accept low-priced goods, and spot trading activity is low.
According to the annual price comparison chart of Shengyi Society, in the past five years, copper prices have fallen more or risen less in June, and the copper price decline in June this year is a highly probable event.
In summary, the main suppressing factors are the off-season of consumption, high copper prices that suppress demand, and trade policy uncertainty. The resilience of the US economy, expectations of China’s stable growth policies, and disruptions in mining supply provide bottoming out momentum. Overall, copper prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in June.

Market situation

Recently, the melamine market has indeed faced the dilemma of negative sentiment and sluggish demand, leading to overall downward pressure on the market. However, in the long run, these negative factors will inevitably have a profound impact on the market.
Affected by both sluggish demand and oversupply, the market price of melamine is showing a downward trend. As of May 26th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5975.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.01% compared to last week (6025.50 yuan/ton).
Downstream demand is sluggish: Downstream industries related to melamine, such as sheet metal and impregnation, have seen a decrease in operating load, resulting in an overall shortage of demand for melamine.
The real estate industry, as one of the important application areas of melamine, continues to be sluggish, with new construction areas and development investments continuing to decline, further weakening market demand.
Upstream raw material prices: The domestic urea market continues to operate in a stable to weak trend, with some manufacturers slightly lowering their quotes and the overall market transaction center shifting downwards. As of May 26th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1930.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.30% compared to the beginning of this month (1946.00 yuan/ton).
At present, the market atmosphere for melamine is average, and the market is operating weakly and steadily. Affected by the increase in supply and weak demand, the market price of melamine is expected to continue to operate at a low level. In the foreseeable future, with the gradual release of new production capacity and the gradual recovery of downstream demand, the supply and demand relationship in the melamine market is expected to be adjusted. However, in the short term, the market may still face pressure from oversupply, and the trend of low prices is difficult to change.
The export situation is severe: the export market for melamine is also facing severe challenges. On the one hand, the international market competition is fierce, and Chinese products need to face competition from other countries and regions; On the other hand, the international trade environment is complex and ever-changing, and uncertain factors such as trade barriers and technical barriers may affect the export of melamine.
Future prospects
With the gradual release of new production capacity and the gradual recovery of downstream demand (although currently sluggish), the supply-demand relationship in the melamine market is expected to be adjusted to some extent in the future. However, in the short term, the market may still face pressure from oversupply.
Low price operation: Affected by the increase in supply and weak demand, the market price of melamine is expected to continue to operate at a low level. The specific price trend still needs to be judged based on market dynamics and changes in supply and demand relationships.
In summary, the current melamine market is indeed facing the dilemma of negative sentiment and sluggish demand. However, by strictly controlling production capacity, improving product quality, expanding application areas, and strengthening international cooperation, enterprises can actively respond to market challenges and achieve sustainable development.

Recently (5.20-5.27), the butadiene rubber market has been weak and declining. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of May 27th, the butadiene rubber market price in East China was 12230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.47% from 12670 yuan/ton on the 20th. The price of raw material butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has shifted downwards; Shunding rubber production has slightly decreased, and supply pressure still exists; Downstream tire production is stable, providing essential support for butadiene rubber. As of May 27th, the mainstream prices for Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding in East China were 12150-12400 yuan/ton.

Recently (5.20-5.27), the price of butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has shifted downwards. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of May 27th, the price of butadiene was 10200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.20% from 11233 yuan/ton on May 20th.
Recently (5.20-5.27), the production of domestic butadiene rubber equipment has slightly decreased to around 7.60%, indicating that the supply of butadiene rubber still exists.
Demand side: Recently (5.20-5.27), stable downstream tire production has provided essential support for the demand of the butadiene rubber market. As of May 23rd, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 7.8%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 6.5%.; As of the week of May 23rd, domestic tire companies had 43 days of finished steel tire inventory, which remained unchanged on a week on week basis; The inventory of semi-finished steel tires has been 47 days, with an increase of 1 day in the weekly cycle ratio.
Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the raw material butadiene market will return to weakness, and the cost support for butadiene rubber will weaken; The stable start of downstream production provides strong support for the demand for butadiene rubber, and overall, it is expected that the butadiene rubber market will consolidate weakly in the later stage.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the overall price trend of polyester filament today is stable, with flexible transactions in some varieties. Some enterprises have promoted production and sales rates through promotional activities, but downstream procurement is still mainly based on essential needs. As of May 26th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang offer POY (150D/48F) at a price range of 6950-7200 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at a price range of 8000-8400 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at a price range of 7300-7400 yuan/ton.

Cost factor: Recently, the international oil price is expected to recover due to geopolitical reasons (such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict) and the travel demand in summer, driving the cost recovery of the polyester industry chain. After the release of domestic PX production capacity, prices gradually stabilized, and polymerization costs remained above 5000 yuan/ton, providing support for the price of polyester filament. Recently, PTA prices have fluctuated strongly, but weak downstream demand has led to poor cost transmission and limited profit margins for enterprises.
Supply and demand factors: From a supply perspective, some polyester factories have plans to reduce production, while the three major filament factories have decided to implement production cuts for loss making varieties, reducing market supply and providing some support for prices. From the perspective of demand, the domestic textile industry’s replenishment cycle has started, and the demand for varieties such as cotton yarn and polyester viscose yarn has rebounded, driving the consumption of polyester filament.
Macro factors: The central bank’s reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, as well as consumer stimulus policies, have increased corporate liquidity. The expected retail growth rate of consumer goods in 2025 is 5.5%, and the domestic demand market is expected to improve. The US tariff policy and Pakistan’s anti-dumping investigation have put pressure on exports, but the decrease in shipping costs may alleviate some of the export pressure.
Business Society predicts that downstream textile enterprises will mainly focus on purchasing goods for immediate needs, while the polyester filament market will have light trading and average production and sales. However, in the short term, against the backdrop of cost support and tight supply, it is expected that the price of polyester filament will maintain a narrow range of fluctuations, or remain stable and slightly strong.

Price Trend Review

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, on May 23, spot electrolytic nickel was reported at 124358 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.50%. The macroeconomic policy benefits failed to offset the pressure of weak fundamentals, and nickel prices showed a narrow downward trend.
Macro level: Policy boost has limited effect
Insufficient stimulation from domestic interest rate cuts: The central bank announced interest rate cuts and lowered deposit rates, but the credit demand of enterprises and residents was sluggish, and the willingness of real consumption and investment was weak, and the expectation of metal demand did not improve significantly.
The marginal effect of easing trade between China and the United States has weakened: the boost to market sentiment from the tariff reduction agreement has gradually been digested, and there is a lack of new policy stimulus points in the short term.
Supply side: Continued excess pressure
Global oversupply intensifies: WBMS data shows that in March 2025, the global refined nickel supply surplus was 39400 tons (with a production of 317300 tons and a consumption of 277800 tons), and the surplus expanded month on month.
Price differentiation of nickel ore: The benchmark price for domestic nickel ore in Indonesia has increased by 2.43% to $15415 per wet ton (due to the continued impact of the rainy season on mining); The rainy season in the Philippines has ended, shipping volume has rebounded, nickel ore prices have fallen, and the marginal cost support has weakened.
Inventory differentiation: LME nickel inventory increased by 3414 tons per week (to 198636 tons), with loose overseas supply and demand; Domestic nickel inventory in Shanghai decreased by 1083 tons per week (to 22418 tons), and the pressure on domestic spot prices has slightly eased, while global oversupply remains under pressure.
Demand side: Stainless steel off-season+structural weakening of new energy
Weak demand for stainless steel: The off-season effect is evident, and the accumulation of steel mill inventory is suppressing purchasing intentions. Nickel demand only maintains rigid demand. On May 22nd, the spot price of stainless steel was reported at 12242.86 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 0.4%.
New energy demand differentiation: The loading volume of ternary batteries has declined: In April, the loading volume of ternary batteries decreased by 7.0% month on month and 6.3% year-on-year, with the proportion shrinking to 17.2%; The dominant position of lithium iron phosphate has been strengthened: its proportion has increased to 82.8%, further squeezing the application space of nickel in power batteries. Export drag: In April, the export of ternary precursors decreased by 67% year-on-year, and weak overseas demand constrained nickel consumption.
Market forecast: The pattern of oversupply is difficult to change, there is a lack of bright spots in demand, the macro boost is weak, and there is no obvious upward driving force in fundamentals. The cost of nickel ore in Indonesia is rising, and support still exists. It is expected that nickel prices will remain within a range of fluctuations.

This week, the focus of the domestic acetone market has mainly declined. The acetone market in East China has been trading at an average price of 5856 yuan/ton since May 15th, but has dropped to 5646 yuan/ton on May 22nd, a decrease of 3.59%.

From the perspective of raw materials, the pure benzene market has not fluctuated much, and its overall impact on downstream acetone has weakened compared to the previous period; Traders face significant psychological pressure and have a strong intention to ship, resulting in continuous small declines in their offers. From the perspective of terminal factories, replenishment is mainly driven by urgent needs, with limited acceptance of high prices and a decline in overall industry operating rates. Actual orders are mostly small, and the participation of intermediate traders is limited. During the week, petrochemical manufacturers lowered their listing prices, and on the 22nd, Sinopec’s East China plant once again lowered prices by 100-150 yuan/ton. The factory adjustment is difficult to support the market.
The acetone offers in major mainstream markets across the country on May 22nd are as follows:
Region. Quotation on May 22nd /Weekly increase and decrease
East China region / 5600-5650./ -180
Shandong region / 5700-5750./ -180
Yanshan region / 5750./ -200
South China region / 5700./ -200

As of May 22nd, the acetone cargo statistics were 27500 tons, with 15500 tons still in transit. The current operating rate of phenol ketone enterprises remains at 75%, which is basically stable within the month.
Business Society predicts that the acetone market will consolidate and operate next week, and the fluctuation of raw material pure benzene will still be limited, which will have a significant impact on the difficulty of acetone production; Traders follow along to make offers, and the terminal conducts them according to demand. Small orders are the main focus, and the overall market is operating steadily.

Market situation

Recently, the melamine market has indeed faced the dilemma of negative sentiment and sluggish demand, leading to overall downward pressure on the market. However, in the long run, these negative factors will inevitably have a profound impact on the market. Affected by both sluggish demand and oversupply, the market price of melamine is showing a downward trend. As of April 28th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6012.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.43% compared to last week (6037.50 yuan/ton).
Downstream demand is sluggish: Downstream industries related to melamine, such as sheet metal and impregnation, have seen a decrease in operating load, resulting in an overall shortage of demand for melamine.
The real estate industry, as one of the important application areas of melamine, continues to be sluggish, with new construction areas and development investments continuing to decline, further weakening market demand.
Upstream raw material prices: The domestic urea market continues to operate in a stable, medium to strong trend, with some manufacturers offering slightly higher prices. The overall market transaction center has shifted upward, but the melamine market has not effectively boosted market demand. As of May 21st, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1930.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.93% compared to the beginning of this month (1875.00 yuan/ton).
At present, the market atmosphere for melamine is average, and the market is operating weakly and steadily. Affected by the increase in supply and weak demand, the market price of melamine is expected to continue to operate at a low level. In the foreseeable future, with the gradual release of new production capacity and the gradual recovery of downstream demand, the supply and demand relationship in the melamine market is expected to be adjusted. However, in the short term, the market may still face pressure from oversupply, and the trend of low prices is difficult to change.
The export situation is severe: the export market for melamine is also facing severe challenges. On the one hand, the international market competition is fierce, and Chinese products need to face competition from other countries and regions; On the other hand, the international trade environment is complex and ever-changing, and uncertain factors such as trade barriers and technical barriers may affect the export of melamine.
Future prospects
With the gradual release of new production capacity and the gradual recovery of downstream demand (although currently sluggish), the supply-demand relationship in the melamine market is expected to be adjusted to some extent in the future. However, in the short term, the market may still face pressure from oversupply.
Low price operation: Affected by the increase in supply and weak demand, the market price of melamine is expected to continue to operate at a low level. The specific price trend still needs to be judged based on market dynamics and changes in supply and demand relationships.
In summary, the current melamine market is indeed facing the dilemma of negative sentiment and sluggish demand. However, by strictly controlling production capacity, improving product quality, expanding application areas, and strengthening international cooperation, enterprises can actively respond to market challenges and achieve sustainable development.