Zinc price in November

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 30th, the zinc price was 25720 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 2.24% compared to the zinc price of 25156 yuan/ton on November 1st. The zinc price gradually rose in November amidst fluctuations.

Zinc prices rose slightly in November, and continued to rise in October. The overall center of gravity of zinc prices has shifted upward.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, zinc prices will experience a pullback in June and July 2024, followed by a rise in August and a slight increase in September, October, and November. The average zinc price in November is at a high level for the year.

Supply and demand side

This month, the tight supply situation of zinc ore is still difficult to ease. According to market monitoring, the tight supply of raw materials has led to an increase in costs for smelters, and some smelters such as Chihong, Shengtun, and Baiyin are expected to reduce their production. Smelting output is expected to remain low. At the same time, the seasonal reduction in production in northern mines has further exacerbated the tight supply situation. Although there are reports that mining supply will increase after the first quarter of 2025, the tight supply situation will continue in the short term.

On the demand side, the zinc market demand this month has shown a low season characteristic. As the end of the year approaches, the traditional peak consumption season is gradually coming to an end, and downstream demand has weakened. Especially in the northern region, due to the impact of the heating season, downstream enterprises have experienced phased production cuts and shutdowns, leading to further decline in demand. The operating rates of industries such as galvanizing and die-casting zinc alloys have not been able to maintain high levels, and the overall demand performance has fallen short of expectations.

The price of zinc is showing a fluctuating trend under the dual pressure of tight supply and low demand season. Under the influence of the continuous decline in zinc warehouse receipts in Shanghai and the high position of recent month contracts, the bullish sentiment of funds has been strong, and zinc prices have risen at one point. At the end of the month, due to the uncertainty of macro sentiment, zinc prices fluctuated weakly. Overall, the fluctuation range of zinc prices this month is relatively broad, but the overall increase is limited.

Future forecast

It is expected that zinc prices will continue to be affected by the dual effects of tight supply and low demand season. In the short term, the shortage of raw materials on the supply side is difficult to alleviate, but the increase in production and import volume of smelters will gradually ease the supply pressure. On the demand side, with the end of the heating season and downstream enterprises resuming work, demand is expected to gradually rebound. Expected to fluctuate in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province has slightly declined, with an average market price of 16466 yuan/ton at the end of the month and 17633 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 6.62%.

This month’s market analysis

Entering November 2024, the magnesium price market continues to decline amidst fluctuations. Although the production side intends to raise prices to maintain stability, limited demand has led to a continuous decline in magnesium prices. This month, influenced by multiple factors such as domestic and international economic situation, supply and demand relationship, and cost, magnesium prices are seeking a new equilibrium point amidst fluctuations.

Supply and demand side

Overall, the current situation of oversupply has not eased. Although the factory has the willingness to raise prices, due to the overall high inventory in the current supply side market, there is significant pressure on the factory to release inventory, resulting in some factories experiencing production losses. Market confidence is slightly negative, and magnesium ingot prices are under pressure to decline.

In terms of raw materials

Raw material ferrosilicon, in November, is in the traditional off-season of industry demand. Currently, most buyers have low purchasing enthusiasm and a certain degree of price pressure sentiment, and the domestic ferrosilicon spot market is mainly running weakly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of ferrosilicon (grade: FeSi75-B; particle size grade/mm: natural block) in Ningxia is between 6000-6200 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 6121 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% from the beginning of the month.

The domestic price of raw material orchid charcoal did not fluctuate significantly in November. The bidding price of Shaanxi Coal Mine has slightly fallen by 12.8 yuan/ton, and against the backdrop of limited cost fluctuations, the blue charcoal market is currently operating steadily. At present, the main focus at the pithead is on destocking. Under the sluggish market demand, there has been no significant improvement in transportation in mining areas. Currently, a nationwide cold wave is approaching, but overall downstream inventory is still at a high level. Multiple parties are holding onto essential procurement, and terminal demand still needs to be further released. As of the 28th, the current price of Shenmu’s intermediate materials is 950-1020 yuan/ton, the price of small materials is 890-980 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of coke surface is 630-650 yuan/ton, all of which are ex factory cash prices including tax.

Future forecast

The magnesium ingot market initially remained weak and stable before fluctuating, with prices showing a gradual downward trend. The adjustment of supply and demand relationship will also be an important factor in the fluctuation of magnesium prices. Under the pattern of oversupply in the market, there is still significant pressure on the supply side in the future. Pay attention to the price point of 16000. If there is a breakthrough, it is expected that there will be production stoppage on the production end.

Macro disturbance to market sentiment, nickel prices fluctuated at a low level in November. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, as of November 28th, spot nickel prices were reported at 128300 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 3.4% and a decrease of 2.31% compared to the beginning of the year.

Macroscopically, the US presidential election has disrupted market sentiment, the US dollar index has strengthened, and nickel prices are under pressure. The Russia-Ukraine conflict escalated, and geopolitical factors stirred the market trend. The domestic stock policy continues to show effectiveness, the incremental policy is effectively implemented, and the policy combination effect is constantly released. The trend of China’s economic recovery and improvement is steadily strengthening, which provides positive support for nickel prices. But the new US government may impose high tariffs on China, and the market is concerned that China’s metal demand sentiment has not decreased, which will affect the fluctuation of nickel prices.

Supply side: Domestic policies are favorable, nickel prices are at a low level this year, and there is a significant destocking of nickel in Shanghai. As of November 28th, Shanghai nickel inventory was 27251 tons, a decrease of 64 tons during the month; LME nickel inventory continued, with 159966 tons in LME nickel inventory on November 28th, an increase of 13146 tons for the month.

In terms of demand, the demand for alloys such as military and shipbuilding is still acceptable, and they are being purchased at low prices. We are taking on urgent needs. Stainless steel saw a slight increase followed by a significant decline in November. As of the end of November, the spot price of stainless steel was 12335.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.76% from 12685.71 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and a year-on-year decrease of 2.32%. The traditional off-season is approaching, with weak demand for stainless steel in November. As the weather gradually cools down, outdoor projects in some areas have been suspended, and overall procurement has slowed down, resulting in a decrease in order volume.

Market forecast: Inventory pressure and price resistance still exist, demand is buying at low prices, macro market sentiment is disturbed, and it is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate in the short term.

In late November, the domestic ABS market was in a state of consolidation and operation, with narrow fluctuations in spot prices for various grades. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 27th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11487.5 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as the beginning of the month.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: In late November, the domestic ABS industry’s operating rate stopped its upward trend, and the load level declined slightly. Recently, both Jilin Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical have plans for equipment maintenance, resulting in a nearly 2% to 71% reduction in industry operating rates. Although the average weekly production in China is still above 120000 tons, the overall pattern of abundant supply remains unchanged, but there has been some digestion in terms of inventory. The position has dropped by more than 10000 tons to around 178000 tons. Overall, the supply side showed a slight increase in support for ABS spot prices in late November.

Cost factor: Recently, the trend of ABS upstream three materials has mainly been consolidation operation, and the overall support for ABS cost side is average. Among them, the acrylonitrile market saw a significant increase in the early stage. The favorable news of acrylonitrile factory shutdown and maintenance in East China has been released, and market prices have remained high and sideways under tight supply. However, the difficulty of downward transmission of prices has limited the short-term upward potential of the acrylonitrile market.

Recently, the butadiene market has fluctuated slightly and the downward trend has slowed down slightly. The overall market supply is still relatively loose, while the main downstream synthetic rubber enterprises have a heavy wait-and-see attitude, resulting in weak demand. However, with the recent decline in prices, some purchases have been stimulated to enter the market, forming a bottom. Overall, the market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

Recently, the styrene market has been trending towards a more positive direction. The prices of remote upstream and direct raw materials have shown strong performance, while the cost support of styrene is still acceptable. The operating rate of domestic industries remains low, and the tight supply situation continues. In addition, the inventory positions at each port are generally average, and there is an expectation of a decrease in imported goods to the port. At present, the bullish trend dominates the market, and styrene may still strengthen in the short term.

In terms of demand, the main terminal demand for ABS has increased in late November, and the “Double Eleven” shopping festival and subsidy policies have stimulated the sales of some terminal products. Due to the concerns of home appliance exporters about the remote market, some export demand has been pushed forward, the overall load position of factories has rebounded, terminal stocking willingness has strengthened, and procurement operations have increased synchronously. Merchants take advantage of the situation to digest inventory, try to raise prices through quotations, and increase the activity of source circulation. Overall, the demand side has slightly improved its market support.

Future forecast

In late November, the domestic ABS market mainly experienced consolidation. Upstream three materials showed mixed ups and downs, providing average comprehensive support for ABS cost side. The load of ABS polymerization plant has stopped rising and rebounded, and finished product inventory has been digested at a high level. The demand side is becoming stronger, and the market is stable and strong under the guidance of consumption. However, the supply contraction within the market is limited, and it is expected that the ABS market will explore a narrow range to find a market equilibrium point in the future. Price changes may not be significant in the short term.

1、 Overview of Market Status

Recently, the melamine market has indeed faced the dilemma of negative sentiment and sluggish demand, leading to overall downward pressure on the market. However, in the long run, these negative factors will inevitably have a profound impact on the market. The following is an analysis of the current market situation of melamine:

2、 Negative factor analysis

Low demand:

The downstream industries associated with melamine, such as sheet metal and impregnation, have experienced a decrease in operating load, resulting in an overall shortage of demand for melamine.

The real estate industry, as one of the important application areas of melamine, continues to be sluggish, with new construction areas and development investments continuing to decline, further weakening market demand.

Supply surplus:

The gradual release of new production capacity has led to a significant increase in market supply.

Some melamine plants that were previously shut down due to maintenance have resumed production, exacerbating the supply pressure on the market.

Upstream raw material prices have decreased:

The domestic urea market continues to operate in a stable to weak trend, with some manufacturers experiencing a slight decrease in quotes and the overall market transaction center shifting downwards. This has reduced the production cost of melamine, but has not effectively boosted market demand. As of November 26th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1981.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -9.74% compared to the beginning of this month (2195.00 yuan/ton).

3、 Signs of market changes

Although the market may not show significant changes in the short term, the following signs indicate the current market situation:

Price downward trend:

Affected by both sluggish demand and oversupply, the market price of melamine is showing a downward trend. As of November 26th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6445.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -5.06% compared to the beginning of this month (6687.50 yuan/ton).

Inventory backlog:

With the increase in supply and insufficient demand, some companies have started to accumulate inventory. This not only increases the operating costs of the enterprise, but may also have adverse effects on subsequent production and sales.

4、 Future prospects

Adjustment of supply and demand relationship:

With the gradual release of new production capacity and the gradual recovery of downstream demand (although currently sluggish), the supply-demand relationship in the melamine market is expected to be adjusted to some extent in the future. However, in the short term, the market may still face pressure from oversupply.

Low price operation:

Affected by the increase in supply and weak demand, the market price of melamine is expected to continue to operate at a low level. The specific price trend still needs to be judged based on market dynamics and changes in supply and demand relationships.

5、 Suggestions and Strategies

Pay close attention to market trends:

Enterprises should closely monitor market dynamics and changes in supply and demand relationships in order to flexibly respond to market challenges and seek development opportunities.

Optimize production strategy:

Optimize production strategies based on market demand and supply conditions to avoid inventory buildup caused by overproduction.

Expand application areas:

Actively expanding the application areas of melamine to broaden market demand channels and enhance product added value.

Strengthening international cooperation:

Strengthen cooperation and communication with the international market, understand the dynamic demand of the international market, actively explore the international market to increase export volume.

In summary, the current melamine market is indeed facing the dilemma of negative sentiment and sluggish demand. However, by strictly controlling production capacity, improving product quality, expanding application areas, and strengthening international cooperation, enterprises can actively respond to market challenges and achieve sustainable development.

1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices first fell and then fluctuated at a low level in November. As of the end of the month, the copper price at the beginning of the month was 76515 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the copper price fell to 73885 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 3.44% and a year-on-year increase of 7.61%.

According to the Business Society’s current chart, copper spot prices in November were mostly higher than futures prices, with the main contract being the expected price two months later.

According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory fluctuated narrowly in November. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 269475 tons, a decrease of 0.7% from the beginning of the month.

Macroscopically, on November 8th, the Federal Reserve adjusted the target range for the federal funds rate from 4.75% to 5.0% to a more relaxed range of 4.5% to 4.75%, a decrease of 25 basis points. The dust of the US leadership transition has settled, and Trump will take over. PCE increased by 2.1% year-on-year in September, slightly higher than the target, and there is no sign of progress in underlying inflation recently. In October, the US CPI increased by 0.2% month on month and 2.6% year-on-year, reaching a three-month high; The core CPI increased by 0.3% month on month and 3.3% year-on-year, which is higher than the 2% target set by the Federal Reserve.

Supply side: Entering the off-season of consumption in November, it is expected that domestic copper supply will continue to decline slightly month on month in the future. In terms of imports, although imported goods have gradually arrived, making spot supply slightly loose, domestic copper has received less.

Downstream: As the end of the year approaches, there is a certain expectation for downstream consumption to make a strong push. The decline in copper prices has significantly stimulated downstream consumption. However, the operating rate of recycled copper rods has decreased month on month, indicating that downstream demand has shifted to primary demand. At the same time, some copper rod enterprises engage in export grabbing behavior, but may overdraw future demand.

Import: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of unprocessed copper and its products in China in October was 506000 tons, an increase of 5.6% from 479000 tons in September and 1.1% from the same period last year. In October, the import of refined copper was 386000 tons, an increase of 38000 tons compared to the previous month. The cumulative import from January to October was 3.234 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%.

According to the annual price comparison chart of Shengyi Society, in the past five years, copper prices have mostly risen in December.

Based on the above situation, the customs announced on the 15th that they would cancel the export tax rebate for copper materials, involving an export volume of about 500000 tons. The export of copper materials from January to September this year was 610000 tons, an increase of 19.6% year-on-year, which may indicate that there has been some rush to export. There will still be rush to export behavior this week, but the short-term decrease in exports in December may have a more significant impact. It is expected that there will still be an increase in imports in November and December compared to the previous month. In addition, large-scale refineries are expected to resume production in December due to accidents, and there is an expectation of increased supply in the later period. However, consumption is relatively weak, with a copper production of 1.967 million tons in October, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, and a cumulative production of 19.27 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. In years with weaker consumption, the impact of the off-season is more significant. In addition, traders and copper factories have stated that the demand for long-term orders will be weak next year, and downstream acceptance of long-term orders is not high due to the expansion of losses this year. It is expected that copper prices will mainly fluctuate weakly in December.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke has slightly increased this week. As of November 24th, the price of locally refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 1523.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.66% from 1513.25 yuan/ton on November 28th.

Cost wise: Crude oil prices have risen this week, and OPEC’s production reduction plan of 2.2 million barrels per day has been extended until the end of December, which is good news for international oil prices.

Supply side: The shipment of refined petroleum coke this week is still acceptable, but the supply of petroleum coke with medium and low sulfur indicators is relatively tight, and the price has slightly increased. The price of high sulfur petroleum coke has fluctuated, and the market trading is average. A small amount of imported petroleum coke arrived at the port this week, causing inventory to fall. Low sulfur petroleum coke spot is limited, and market inquiries have increased.

On the demand side: Currently, there is little change in the overall supply of metallic silicon in China, and most of the silicon industry in Xinjiang is mainly based on pre orders, with little change in spot supply. Due to the overall low operating rate in Yunnan and Sichuan regions, although there are relatively few new spot orders and overall transaction orders, inventory pressure is not high, and the overall shipping mentality is normal. The market has stable quotes in multiple dimensions.

Recently, the market for medium sulfur calcined coke has remained stable, with limited downstream demand. Currently, most companies are starting to pre sell orders for next month, and downstream customers are mainly observing and waiting.

The early rise in aluminum prices was mainly due to the upward shift of the cost center, which drove the rise of the industrial chain market. In particular, the price of raw material alumina has risen significantly, and the near end fundamentals are expected to be good, resulting in strong prices and causing aluminum prices to skyrocket. At present, the main reason for the decline in aluminum prices is due to fundamental considerations of supply and demand. After rising, prices have begun to make slight corrections.

Market forecast: Currently, downstream negative electrode and carbon enterprises are facing an increase in inquiries, urgent procurement needs, and decent trading in the local petroleum coke market. In addition, due to the tight inventory of low sulfur petroleum coke, it is expected that the price of petroleum coke may rise slightly in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 18th to 22nd, MTBE prices rose from 5412 yuan/ton to 5460 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.88% during the period, a month on month decrease of 1.27%, and a year-on-year decrease of 16.80%. The domestic MTBE market is mainly experiencing sporadic adjustments, with relatively frequent price fluctuations but limited space. The demand for gasoline terminals is still acceptable, and industry players have a certain degree of enthusiasm for purchasing related gasoline raw materials. MTBE manufacturers often sell at high prices. After the price rose to a high level, the cautious mentality of operators increased, and the market situation was mainly consolidated.

In terms of cost and crude oil, the rise in international oil prices is mainly due to the temporary failure of some oil fields in Norway, which led to a temporary decrease in production, and the increased instability of the Russia Ukraine situation. As of November 21st, the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $74.23 per barrel, an increase of $1.42 or 1.9%.

From the perspective of demand and downstream gasoline terminal demand, the temperature in northern regions continues to decline, and the private car travel rate of the public increases. Retail gas station shipments have performed well, and most gas station merchants maintain medium to high levels of inventory for procurement and sales. With some shipping orders awaiting delivery, there is some support on the demand side. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by favorable factors.

Supply side: There is a construction plan in place, and it is expected that the supply of resources will increase. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.

As of the close on November 21st, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $1/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $709.49-711.49/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $1.25/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $813.24-813.74/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $4.82/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $764.42-764.78/ton (215.84-215.94 cents/gallon).

The future forecast still needs to wait and see the demand follow-up situation and the start time of some manufacturers. If there is no substantial positive follow-up, MTBE analysts from Shengyi Society believe that there may be a narrow downward adjustment in the domestic MTBE market in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, starting from November 18th, negative sentiment has suppressed the palm oil spot market, causing a fluctuating decline with an overall increase of over 3%. On November 18th, the average market price of palm oil was 9664 yuan/ton, and on November 21st, the average market price of palm oil was 9764 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.42% in price.

Negative pressure suppresses the downward trend of domestic palm oil market

On November 18th, the palm oil market weakened and prices continued to decline. This round of palm oil decline is mainly due to the outflow of bullish Malaysian palm oil futures in the external market, resulting in a decline in the market. The domestic palm oil futures market followed suit and the spot market weakened. The average price of palm oil in the domestic market has fallen below 10000 yuan, with a drop of nearly 4% in this round.

Li Bing, a palm oil analyst at Shengyi Society, believes that at the end of November, with the support of rigid demand for oil terminals, the palm oil market will continue to stabilize and stop falling in the future.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on November 20th, the reference price for the domestic silicon metal # 441 market was 12120 yuan/ton, which remained stable compared to November 8th. Compared to November 1st (silicon metal # 441 market price of 12070 yuan/ton), the price increased by 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.41%; Compared with October 1st (market price of 11960 yuan/ton for silicon metal # 441), the price has increased by 160 yuan/ton, a 1.34% increase.

From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in the recent period (11.15-11.20), the overall stable operation of the domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 has been the main trend. However, due to the recent opening price drop of nearly 800 yuan compared to the beginning of the month for the main futures contracts, the actual trading center of some other grades of silicon metal in the spot market has slightly weakened. As of November 20th, the domestic market price reference for metallic silicon 441 # is around 11900-12400 yuan/ton.

Fundamental situation

In terms of construction: Currently, the overall construction rate of domestic silicon metal remains high in the north and low in the south, and the overall construction rate of silicon enterprises in the north remains high. According to incomplete statistics, the overall operating rate in Xinjiang remains stable at around 86% -88%, and the operating rate is still relatively high. The construction rate in the Sichuan Yunnan region is relatively low, with the silicon industry operating at around 48% -49%, maintaining a relatively low level of construction. The operating rate of silicon industry in Sichuan region is around 33% -34%, with a low overall operating rate. Most silicon companies in Sichuan have reduced production or shut down their furnaces. It is heard that some silicon companies still plan to shut down their furnaces later this month, and the operating rate has remained low.

In terms of supply: Currently, there is little change in the overall supply of metallic silicon in China, and most of the silicon in Xinjiang has been pre ordered, with little change in spot supply. Due to the overall low operating rate in Yunnan and Sichuan regions, although there are relatively few new spot orders and overall transaction orders, inventory pressure is not high, and the overall shipping mentality is normal. The market has stable quotes in multiple dimensions.

In terms of demand: Currently, the downstream demand for metallic silicon is mostly urgent procurement, with replenishment mainly based on quantity, and there is little overall change in the demand side.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the domestic silicon metal market is quiet and mild. With the overall expectation of on-site construction continuing to decline, the pressure on the silicon metal supply side is controllable. Although the transmission performance between supply and demand is still average, it will be able to maintain weak stability. The silicon metal data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic silicon metal market will mainly operate with large stability and small fluctuations, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be monitored.