The collapse of cost support was caused by the heavy fall of international oil prices, and the current PTA price fell significantly yesterday (July 20). As of July 20, the average price of domestic PTA spot market was 5050 yuan / ton, down 2.29% compared with the previous trading day, up 43.43% year on year. PTA futures main force 2109 closed 4974, down 158, or 3.08%.

However, it is said that the main port of the Yangtze River has been affected by typhoon. The air is closed for three days, PTA Zhapu and other regions are in short supply, and the current price fluctuation has been rising. In addition, the price of oil rebounded slightly, and the cost was boosted. PTA futures main force 2109 closed 5190, up 204, up 4.09%. The average spot market price was 5182 yuan / ton, up 2.61%.

In terms of supply, recently, the PTA plant of Fuhai Chuang 4.5 million tons / year will reduce its load to 60-70% in mid July 2021. Ningbo Taihua 1.2 million tons PTA plant was overhauled from July 10 to 28, 2021. The PTA plant with annual capacity of 325000 tons of Luoyang Petrochemical was stopped in early July 2021, and it has been restarted recently, and the starting load is not high. PTA industry overall operating rate is around 80%. However, the downstream polyester maintains a high starting load of about 88%, and the demand for PTA is relatively stable, so the PTA will be mainly in inventory in July.

Business analysts believe that, in a comprehensive view, considering the tight liquidity spot in PTA Market in the near future, supply and demand support is still acceptable. It is also concerned that the weather will lead to the problem of unloading goods from the source to the port. It is expected that the PTA price will continue to fluctuate and warm in the short term, but the dynamic of the oil injection market still needs to be closed.

According to the commodity index system of business community, the natural rubber commodity index on July 20 was 37.59, down 1.48 points from yesterday, down 62.41% from the highest point of 100.00 points in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 37.79% from the lowest point of 27.28 points on April 2, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

Data monitoring shows that on July 20, the main contract of HuJiao 09 was significantly reduced by 650 yuan / ton, and the spot price of domestic all latex was reduced by 500-600 yuan / ton, with a single day reduction of about 4%. According to market data, the price of domestic latex in East China is generally reduced by about 500 yuan / ton: in 19, the price of Baodao whole milk was 12650-12700 yuan / ton, in 19, the price of Guangken whole milk was 12650-12700 yuan / ton, in 19, the price of Sinochem whole milk was 12650-12700 yuan / ton, in 19, the price of Yunxiang whole milk was 12700-12750 yuan / ton, in 19, the price of 3L glue in Vietnam was 12450-12500 yuan / ton, In the past 20 years, Thailand hongmanli offered about 17500 yuan / ton of tobacco glue.

Factor analysis: affected by the sharp drop of international crude oil, commodity futures have been greatly adjusted. Shanghai Rubber fell 650 yuan / ton on the 20th. The domestic spot price of rubber was adjusted along with the market. The Shanghai and Qingdao markets were generally reduced by about 500 yuan / ton. Macroscopically, rubber, as a kind of futures, is greatly affected by the crude oil market. The crude oil fell more than 7% at night, and commodity futures have been greatly adjusted, so rubber is inevitable. Recently, the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States was affected by the mutant strains, and the prevention measures were strengthened. The local economic recovery was once again severely tested, and the demand for raw materials and commodities showed a decreasing trend. In terms of output, Hainan and Yunnan are in the traditional seasonal production increasing period, and the supply side pressure is increasing rapidly; Overseas, Southeast Asia has been greatly affected by the recent epidemic: according to Thailand’s news on the 20th, affected by the spread of delta mutant virus, the world’s three largest rubber producing countries, namely Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia, have reduced their rubber production by 4-5% due to curfews and city closures. Thailand’s rubber Bureau said that the local rubber price had fallen slightly due to the epidemic, But now it’s starting to get better. Downstream, automobile data — according to the statistical analysis of China Automobile Industry Association, in June 2021, the production and sales of domestic commercial vehicles decreased significantly year on year. In terms of vehicle types, the production and sales of freight cars decreased significantly year on year, while the production and sales of passenger cars increased significantly year on year. In June 2021, 388000 and 446000 commercial vehicles were produced and sold, with a month on month decrease of 8.3% and 7.4%, and a year-on-year decrease of 26.3% and 16.8%.; Operating rate data – on July 16, the operating load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong Province was 59.85%, up 17.58 percentage points from last week, down 8.98 percentage points from the same period of last year, and down 15.09 percentage points from the same period of 2019. The starting load of semi steel tire of domestic tire enterprises was 56.38%, 11.37% higher than that of last week, 8.36% lower than that of the same period of last year, and 14.83% lower than that of the same period of 2019. In terms of import and export, the high shipping costs and the lack of vessels still have a great impact on the import volume of rubber in China’s market, the export delivery cycle is extended, and the domestic tire export pressure continues. In terms of inventory, the outstanding thing is the high inventory of finished products of tire factories, which is currently in the off-season of demand, and it is difficult to boost the demand for raw materials before the golden nine silver ten.

Future forecast: the adjustment range of natural rubber is relatively large, and it does not have the basis of continuous large decline. It is expected that the future market will be dominated by short-term low volatility.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, at the beginning of the week, the price of domestic first-class industrial potassium nitrate was 5440.00 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the price of domestic first-class industrial potassium nitrate was 5480.00 yuan / ton, up 0.74%. The current price has increased by 13.46% month on month, and the current price has increased by 30.87% year on year.

This week, the domestic potassium nitrate market rose, and the market supply was tight. Most of them were concentrated in the hands of large traders. They were reluctant to sell, and the overall turnover of the market was slow. The overall supply is at a low level, the downstream market purchases on demand, the potassium nitrate market continues to rise, and the price continues to break through the highest point. According to the statistics of the business society, the quotation of mainstream domestic potassium nitrate manufacturers this week is 4900-5800 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to different purchasing situations.

Recently, the quotation of potassium chloride mainstream manufacturers fluctuated and consolidated: on July 16, the potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operated normally. The ex factory quotation is about 2450 yuan / ton, the quotation is temporarily stable, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation. On July 16, Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. did not offer potassium chloride for the time being. Recently, the potassium chloride market has maintained a high consolidation, and the imported potassium supply has been replenished, but the inventory is still tight, and it is expected to be high and strong in the later period.

Recently, the domestic potash fertilizer market continues to show an upward trend. Most of the imported potash sources are concentrated in the hands of traders, and the circulation of market sources is limited. It is expected that the market of potassium nitrate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see（ The above prices are provided by the main manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analysts of the business society. They are for reference only. For more price details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the weakness of aniline Market weakened this week. On July 9, the price in Shandong was 10000-10200 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 10200-10400 yuan / ton, while that in Shandong was 9400-9600 yuan / ton on July 16; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 9700 yuan / ton, with an average price of 5.63% lower than last week, 20.25% higher than the beginning of the year, and 124.41% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, the inventory of East China port remained low this week, and the supply of pure benzene in the spot market was still tight. At the beginning of the week, Sinopec’s pure benzene price was lowered by 150 yuan / ton to 8600 yuan / ton, which was lower than the market expectation. According to the dynamic situation of the plant, there will be new pure benzene output in the second phase of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company, and Weilian chemical and North Huajin units will be shut down for maintenance. In terms of demand, downstream products are in deficit, some units are reducing load, and the demand for pure benzene may decline.

The price of nitric acid rose for six consecutive weeks. On Friday (July 16), the price of nitric acid production in East China was 2450 yuan / ton, up 2.08% from last week and 68.97% from the same period last year.

Jinling aniline began to ship, and the spot supply increased; In addition, Wanhua chemical’s 400000 T / a new aniline plant has been put into operation, which has a huge impact on the future supply of aniline Market and a strong market bearish attitude. Downstream demand maintains rigid demand and lacks support.

3、 Future expectation

In terms of cost, the second phase of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company is expected to have new pure benzene output and increased supply, so the market is bearish on the future. Although the shutdown of some units will offset part of the output, the downward pressure of pure benzene is greater.

The supply of aniline is expected to increase greatly in the later stage, but it is difficult for downstream demand to make a big breakthrough in the short term. Under the pressure of oversupply, aniline may continue to weaken. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material, downstream demand and aniline plant.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of July 15, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 14733 yuan / ton, which was 767 yuan / ton lower than that on July 11, with a 4.95% drop in four days; Compared with the price on July 1, the average price increased by 100 yuan / ton, or 0.68% in half a month.

In early July, the domestic n-butanol market continued to rise. By the 9th, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong had risen to 15533 yuan / ton. Compared with the average market price in early July, it had risen 900 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 6.15% in early July.

N-butanol market fell 4.95% for four consecutive days

After two days of high market consolidation, most downstream users resisted the current high raw material prices. Due to the high cost pressure of downstream products, the unit was reduced to low load operation, and the mainstream downstream factories mainly digested raw material inventory. The atmosphere of new orders in n-butanol market continued to weaken, and the transaction situation was general. Starting from July 12, n-butanol factories in Shandong began to reduce the ex factory price of n-butanol. By July 15, the market price of n-butanol had dropped for four consecutive days, with a 4.95% decline.

Upstream, entering July, propylene oxide continued the rising trend in late June and rose slowly. Since the 5th, propylene oxide manufacturers have no pressure, downstream polyether orders have increased steadily, and prices have risen. The middle and lower reaches just need to follow up steadily, and the market has no pressure to push up. At present, the market supply is tight, the downstream follow-up performance is positive, and the market continues to rise. As of July 14, the reference price of propylene oxide was 16433.33 yuan / ton, up 10.29% compared with July 1 (14900.00 yuan / ton).

Future market analysis of n-butanol

After four consecutive days of decline in the market price of n-butanol in Shandong, I heard that the situation of taking goods from the downstream has improved, the transaction atmosphere has slightly improved, the inventory position of some factories has declined, and the supply side pressure has reduced, which has a certain support for the future market of n-butanol. Therefore, n-butanol analysts of the business community believe that in the short term, The n-butanol market in Shandong may rebound slightly.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of July 14, the average price of domestic power grade lithium iron phosphate was 51000.00 yuan / ton. In the near future, the market is mainly stable, with a slight rise. The price of lithium iron phosphate is arranged in a narrow range, with little fluctuation. The downstream just needs to purchase, and the negotiation atmosphere is calm.

The market of LiFePO4 is mainly stable, with stable price trend and balanced supply and demand. The upstream lithium carbonate is running smoothly and the rising trend slows down. The main contract customers are the main suppliers, and the number of new customers is limited. At present, the mainstream quotation range of LiFePO4 power type is 49000-53000 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of energy storage type LiFePO4 is 44000-48000 yuan / ton, The price range of upstream battery grade lithium carbonate is 87000-91000 yuan / ton, and the price range of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 80000-85000 yuan / ton. The upstream lithium carbonate mainly runs smoothly and the trend is relatively stable.

On July 14, the chemical industry index was 1078 points, up 2 points from yesterday, down 0.55% from 1084 points (2021-05-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 80.27% from 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now

Business community LiFePO4 analysts believe that: in the short term, LiFePO4 runs smoothly with limited fluctuation range（ If you want to get more information about goods and master the price of goods, you can subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community.

Acetic anhydride prices plummeted

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the cost of raw materials fell and the price of acetic anhydride fell sharply in July. As of July 12, the price of acetic anhydride was 11300.00 yuan / ton, down 7.12% compared with the price of 12166.67 yuan / ton on July 1.

Raw material cost decrease

From the trend chart of acetic acid price, the acetic acid price fell sharply in July, down 13%, the cost of acetic anhydride decreased, and the driving force of acetic anhydride rise weakened and the pressure of decline increased.

From the trend chart of methanol price, methanol price fell slightly in July, the cost of acetic anhydride decreased, the pressure of acetic anhydride decline increased, and the price of acetic anhydride in the future declined.

Market overview and future market forecast

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst with acetic anhydride data from the business agency, said that in July, the price of acetic acid fell, methanol price fell, the overall cost of acetic anhydride decreased, and the pressure on the decline of acetic anhydride price increased. In the later market, the starting rate of acetic acid enterprises increased, the supply of acetic acid was sufficient, the market price was expected to fall after acetic acid, the pressure on the decline of the cost of acetic anhydride increased, and the market of acetic anhydride in the later market was expected to decline.

According to the business news agency, the domestic polysilicon market fell slightly this week. As of July 9, the weekly price of polysilicon dropped by 0.74%, and the current price range is 105000-130000 yuan / ton.

This week, most polysilicon manufacturers are running stably. At the end of June, a production plant in Xinjiang resumed work, and the supply pressure was slightly relieved. At the end of this week, a plant in Inner Mongolia also resumed work. At present, only one plant in Xinjiang is still in the maintenance period, which is expected to last until August. The later supply of silicon materials will remain stable, which helps to relieve the pressure on the downstream purchasing end.

From the perspective of downstream silicon chips, due to the sharp rise of silicon chips in the early stage and the further decline of downstream battery operation rate, the silicon chip shipment is not smooth. This week, the downward pressure on silicon chips is obvious, especially the price of polycrystalline silicon chips has decreased greatly. As for the monocrystalline silicon wafer, after the announcement of price reduction in central last week, other silicon wafer manufacturers followed up one after another and mainly delivered at a reduced price. This is mainly due to the obvious wait-and-see attitude of terminal battery enterprises when purchasing silicon wafers, and the overall market volume is gradually declining, which forces the price of silicon wafers down.

In terms of terminal batteries and components, due to the high price of raw materials, the downstream profits are meager, the purchasing volume of batteries and components is declining, the operating rate of battery manufacturers is also significantly declining, and the price of battery chips continues to decline. This week, the price falls below the level of 1 yuan, which leads to a worse market outlook and a vicious circle. The purchase of some large component manufacturers has been suspended, and the purchase speed of small and medium component manufacturers has also slowed down. At present, there are only a few transactions in the price of battery chips, and the market generally expects a lower price.

According to the business association, at present, the silicon material manufacturers are returning to work one after another, and the supply pressure is obviously alleviated. With the decrease of downstream purchasing intention, the trading volume also shows a downward trend. We can’t rule out the possibility of higher inventory of silicon material manufacturers in the later stage. The shortage of supply may turn into abundant supply. It is expected that the market will still have room for further decline.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the weakness of aniline Market weakened this week. On July 2, the price in Shandong was 10200-10300 yuan / ton; The price of aniline was 10300-10500 yuan / ton in Nanjing, and 10000-10200 yuan / ton in Shandong on July 9; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 10200-10400 yuan / ton, with an average price of 2.58% lower than last week, 27.43% higher than the beginning of the year, and 137.8% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost and international aspect, the international oil price continued to decline this week, while the price of pure benzene in Asia fell. Domestic, this week, East China port inventory continued to decline, pure benzene spot market remains tight supply. Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene was stable at 8750 yuan / ton within the week, providing certain support to the market. In terms of demand, most of the downstream products are at a loss, and they have strong resistance to high price pure benzene, and the enterprises generally ship. On Sunday (July 11), the price of pure benzene was 8400-8750 yuan / ton (average price was 8630 yuan / ton), and the average price fell 140 yuan / ton or 1.6% compared with last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 173.97%.

The price of nitric acid rose this week. On Friday (July 9), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 2400 yuan / ton, up 2.13% from last week and 65.52% from the same period last year.

This week, the price of aniline went down. Jinling aniline plant is restarted and will be delivered soon; Wanhua chemical’s new aniline plant entered the market, the later supply is expected to increase significantly, and the market is bearish in the later stage. The downstream MDI market rebounded slightly, but the starting load decreased, the demand for aniline was weak, and the support was insufficient.

3、 Future expectation

In terms of cost, the short-term supply will continue to be tight, but the downstream market is difficult to break through in the short term. It is expected that the pure benzene market will be frozen next week.

Aniline market supply is expected to increase significantly in the later period, but it is difficult for downstream demand to make a big breakthrough in the short term. It is expected that the aniline Market is deadlocked and may go down. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material, the follow-up of downstream demand and the dynamic of aniline plant.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of business club’s block list, PA6′s domestic market in early July showed a positive trend, with spot prices generally rising. As of July 9, the mainstream offer price of the sample enterprises for CNMC 2.75-2.85 was about 15000 yuan / ton, with an increase of 2.97% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month and 23.29% compared with the same period last year.

2、 The influencing factors were analyzed

Upstream caprolactam, the current market to undertake the end of June supply side favorable pattern, the current supply is still relatively tight. The operating rate of domestic caprolactam production enterprises remains at about 60%, and the recent overhaul, production recovery and transformation of the unit are still in progress. In terms of raw material pure benzene, domestic inventory decreased rapidly after short supply at the end of the month. In addition, the improvement of automobile transportation in Shandong is limited, and the supply is also tight. Although the recent rise narrowed or even callback, the spot price is still strong on the whole. Multiple supply side bullish, caprolactam price trend is expected to be strong in the short term.

At present, the overall operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plant is about 60%, and the supply side is good for conventional spinning and chip products. Among them, nylon filament load 80% is relatively high, and the benefit is not obvious. The raw material caprolactam was stronger at the beginning of the month, the cost support of PA6 was strengthened, and the price rose with the upstream. However, the acceptance of high price goods in the downstream is poor, and the market trading is still dominated by contracts. Terminal factory purchase operation is cautious, just need to replenish with take.

3、 Future forecast:

Analysts of business news agency think: in early July, upstream caprolactam of PA6 continued to strengthen, while PA6 was supported by cost side, its operating rate continued to decline, which was affected by the positive supply side. However, the purchasing of downstream enterprises has cooled down, the high price of goods on the floor is not smooth, and there is a strong wait-and-see mentality on the floor. PA6 spot price is expected to narrow in the short term.