Trade name: urea

Latest price (June 3): 2455.00 yuan / ton

On June 3, the ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong increased by 51.67 yuan / ton, or 2.15%, compared with the quotation on June 1. The prices of upstream natural gas and coal have risen slightly recently, and the cost support is good. In terms of demand, the agricultural demand is still sufficient; The downstream compound fertilizer and rubber sheet factories take goods actively, and the new orders of enterprises follow up well. From the aspect of supply: in recent years, some enterprises in Shandong, Xinjiang, Hebei, Henan and other places still have the same equipment maintenance, the supply side is tightened, the daily output of urea is reduced to less than 160000 tons, and the enterprise inventory and social inventory are also maintained at a low position. On the whole, this week’s urea cost support is strong, downstream demand is strong, and urea supply is tight.

It is expected that the ex factory price of urea in Shandong will rise slightly in the future: the average price quoted by the manufacturer is about 2500 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on May 31 was 3593.33 yuan / ton, which was 536 yuan / ton higher than 3056.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, with an increase rate of 17.56% in the month and the maximum amplitude of 28.2% in the month, with an increase of 46.83% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In May, the domestic liquefied natural gas market rose sharply, with a year-on-year increase of about 46%, showing remarkable performance in the off-season period of consumption. It can be roughly divided into three stages: rapid rise in the first half of the month, continuous decline in the second half of the month, slight rebound near the end of the month, and overall price trend of rise fall rise. At the end of the May Day holiday, the restrictions on the transportation of high-speed dangerous chemicals were lifted, the demand for vehicles increased after the holiday, the maintenance of superimposed liquid plants increased, the supply tightened, the inventory of enterprises was low, and the price of imported gas rose, which led to the straight-line rise of domestic liquid price. However, the rally lasted for a short time. After reaching the peak of this month in the middle of this month, it began to decline gradually. Together with the simultaneous decline of several commodity prices, it recovered the gains in the first half of this month and fell back to the cost line for a time. Near the end of the month, the price of feed gas rose to 1.96-1.98 yuan / m3, and the cost support was enhanced. In addition, the demand in southern China increased, the maintenance of liquid plants and the import gas continued to rise. The favorable factors boosted the price of liquid again.

In June, the domestic LNG market continued to rise, but the demand in the off-season was limited, and the increase was small. On June 2, the price of LNG in Inner Mongolia was 3450-3650 yuan / ton, Shaanxi 3560-3720 yuan / ton, Shanxi 3650-3770 yuan / ton, Ningxia 3600-3700 yuan / ton, Henan 3750-3900 yuan / ton, Hebei 3540-3850 yuan / ton, and the price of LNG in various regions decreased significantly.

region Specifications Quotation (yuan / ton) date

Inner Mongolia liquified natural gas 3450-3650 June 2nd

Shaanxi liquified natural gas 3560-3720 June 2nd

Shanxi liquified natural gas 3650-3770 June 2nd

Ningxia liquified natural gas 3600-3700 June 2nd

Hebei liquified natural gas 3540-3850 June 2nd

Henan Province liquified natural gas 3750-3900 June 2nd

Downstream products rose more than fell less:

Methanol. On June 2, methanol futures of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fell sharply, closing at 2506 yuan / ton, down 49 yuan / ton or 1.92% compared with the closing of the previous trading day. Methanol spot market was mainly volatile, with a slight decline in some areas. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of June 2, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises in Shandong was 2632 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 2.83% and a year-on-year increase of 64.02%. Business community methanol analysts expect the short-term methanol market to enter a high finishing stage.

Urea, June 2, Shandong urea market rose, demand: agricultural demand rose; Affected by the mentality of buying up but not buying down, the downstream compound fertilizer and rubber sheet factories took goods actively, and the new orders of enterprises followed up well. Supply side: some urea plants shut down for maintenance, and the supply side is tightened. Enterprises have a strong attitude of supporting prices.

Dichloromethane. In May, the dichloromethane market rose first and then fell, and the whole market rose. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of dichloromethane was 3630 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, then rose to 4263 yuan / ton on May 17, and dropped to 3833 yuan / ton at the end of the month. Overall, the end of the month was 5.60% higher than the beginning of the month. At present, the risk of domestic dichloromethane market has been released in the early stage. At present, the cost side, supply side and demand side are all supported. It is expected that the price of dichloromethane will be high and firm in the near future.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of LNG from business news agency believe that: in June, the price of gas source rose, the support of cost side gradually increased, and the upward trend of imported gas boosted the atmosphere of domestic liquid market. In addition, in the early stage, the liquid price fell to a low level, and the manufacturers had strong willingness to support the market and actively followed up. However, due to the influence of off-season factors, it was difficult to form an inflection point. It is expected that the rise of LNG market may slow down and tend to be stable in the short term.

In May, the trend of dimethyl ether Market was high first and then low. In the first half of the month, it continued to rise, and in the second half, it continued to fall, and the overall price center moved up. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 3460.00 yuan / ton on May 1 and 3717.50 yuan / ton on May 31, with an increase of 7.44% in May, up 62.81% over the same period last year. As of May 31, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether are as follows:

region Specifications date offer

Shandong Province Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% May 31st 3750 yuan / ton

Hebei Province Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% May 31st 3750 yuan / ton

Henan Province Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% May 31st 3660-3700 yuan / ton

In May, the domestic dimethyl ether market can be divided into two stages: the first half of the month and the second half of the month. In the first half of the month, driven by the rise of raw materials, the domestic dimethyl ether market continued to rise, and most of the enterprises’ external quotation exceeded the 4000 yuan / ton level. In the second half of the month, due to the lack of support for raw materials and limited market demand, prices fell.

Let’s first look at the first half of the month. After the May Day holiday, the price of dimethyl ether in the domestic market continued to rise and could not stop. The main reasons for the rise are as follows. The most obvious one is the raw material methanol market. Due to the rising price of coal, methanol has risen sharply. The methanol futures and spot prices have risen hand in hand, bringing obvious benefits to the dimethyl ether Market. Secondly, in terms of market supply, most manufacturers of dimethyl ether are in the state of maintenance, and the decrease of market supply brings some support. Finally, in terms of demand, after the festival, there is a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream, which mainly focuses on replenishment in the market, and the market is more favorable. Under the mentality of buying up but not buying down in the downstream, it is more active to enter the market, and the market supply exceeds the demand, and the price continuously rises to May 19.

However, the rise did not run through the whole may, and the dimethyl ether market began to decline significantly on the 19th. The recent offer of raw material methanol market is lower, and the trading is weak, which brings no support to dimethyl ether. In the early stage, as the price continued to rise, the resistance of the downstream to high prices increased, and the enthusiasm for entering the market weakened. With the end of replenishment, most of them withdrew from the market to wait and see, and the overall transaction atmosphere of the market was general. Finally, on the demand side, due to the rising weather and temperature, limited terminal demand, and the lengthening of downstream replenishment cycle, the market is obviously restrained, the manufacturers’ shipment is hindered, the inventory is increased, and the main reason is that the goods are delivered with more profits. There were many negative factors, and the price of dimethyl ether continued to fall.

The cost of methanol market rose first and then decreased in May, and dimethyl ether was greatly affected by raw materials. On May 31, Shandong methanol Lubei market had no obvious deal yet, most of them were waiting for methanol plants in Northwest China to bid, mainly on the sidelines. Methanol market negotiation price in southern Shandong fell 50-60 yuan / ton to 2560-2570 yuan / ton in cash. Linyi received the local goods to negotiate the price to 2540-2560 yuan / ton and sent them to cash exchange. The logistics goods offer price is chaotic. Futures down, most of the downstream wait-and-see, general negotiations. The mainstream transaction price of Linfen in Shanxi Province dropped by 30 yuan / ton to 2370-2400 yuan / ton in cash; Changzhi area offline price to 2500 yuan / ton factory cash; The mainstream transaction price in Jincheng area was stable at 2400 yuan / ton in cash.

At present, the trend of raw methanol market is weak, and the civil LPG market is supported by the rise of CP in June. Although there are different degrees of rise in various regions, the rise is limited. On the supply side, as of the end of May, the operating rate of dimethyl ether Market was about 13.5%, down from last month. On the demand side, as the weather temperature rises, the traditional off-season is coming, the terminal demand slows down, and the replenishment cycle in the downstream is lengthened. On the whole, the negative side of dimethyl ether Market is more than the positive side. It is expected that the dimethyl ether market will continue to be weak in June and mainly decline.

The system of business society commodity index shows that the natural rubber commodity index on May 30 was 38.88, which was flat with yesterday, down 61.12% from the peak of 100.00 (2011-09-01) in the cycle, up 42.52% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 02, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

Figure 2: trend chart of main price of natural rubber in May 2021

Data monitoring shows that in May 2021, the domestic total latex Market of natural rubber increased slightly and continued to fluctuate and weaken: the mainstream reported 13407.5 yuan / ton on the first day, 12850 yuan / ton on 31, and 4.16% monthly; Among them, the highest report this month is 14040 yuan / ton, the lowest is 12777 yuan / ton, and the maximum amplitude is 8.99%. The main factors that affect the weakening of the market are the gradual increase of production, insufficient demand and low operating rate.

From the perspective of new rubber output, the main production area of natural rubber in China is normally opened and cut, and the supply pressure is increasing; Among them, the new rubber volume in Yunnan production area is slow to market but the increasing trend of production is established. Affected by the decrease of the starting rate of tire factories, the order of new factories in Hainan is not good, the market is weak and the cost support is weakened. Globally, the latest report released by ANRPC shows that the global production of gum increased 22.5% to 903000 tons in April 2021. Among them, Thailand increased 26.5%, Indonesia increased by 2.8%, Vietnam increased by 100%, Malaysia increased by 9.8%. In April, the global consumption of gum increased 15.1% to 1.219 million tons. Among them, China increased 9.2%, India increased 915%, Thailand fell 2.4%, Malaysia increased by 15.8%. Among them, Thailand, the main producer, increased its exports 34 percent year on year in April, and 20 percent on month. Thailand’s exports are under the trend. Driven by strong growth in the first four months, it is expected that the export growth in May and June will reach double digits. The Thai Association of ship exporters has more firmly confidence in achieving the goal of 4% increase in the whole year, emphasizing that the global economic recovery played a key role in it. Malaysia announced a comprehensive blockade across the country from 1 to 14 June. But during this period, only 17 basic services are allowed to operate. These include transportation (land, water or air); Port, shipyard and airport services and operations (including loading, barge, cargo handling and storage or packaging of goods); Communications (media, telecommunications and the Internet, postal and express, and broadcasting for the purpose of information transmission). The country’s security minister said it would also be allowed to operate rubber plantations and commodity sectors and their supply chains, including trucks transporting rubber. In addition, rubber gloves are allowed to operate at 60% of the workforce capacity and cars (vehicles and parts) are allowed to operate with 10 percent of the workforce.

From downstream demand, from the tire manufacturer’s situation, may is the traditional supply peak of tires. According to the data statistics, the starting rate of the manufacturers in this month is in a decline state compared with the previous month, and the decline rate is beyond expectation. As of May 20, the start rate of all steel tire enterprises was 62.52%, the weekly ratio decreased by 6.08%, and the weekly year-on-year decrease was 2.83%; The starting rate of semi steel tire enterprises is 60.98%, the ratio of cycle to ring is down by 3.75%, and the weekly year-on-year decrease is 2.27%. According to the automobile data, the production and sales of China’s automobile in April respectively completed 2234000 and 225.22 million vehicles, with a 9.3% and 10.8% decrease on a year-on-year basis, with a year-on-year increase of 6.3% and 8.6%. From January to April, the total automobile production and sales respectively completed 8.586 million and 8.748 million vehicles, respectively, with an increase of 53.4% and 51.8% respectively. The growth rate fell 28.3 percentage points and 23.8 percentage points from January to March. Compared with the same period in 2019, the production and sales increased by 2.1% and 4.5% respectively, which was 2.1% and 2.9% higher than that in January to March. According to the data of commercial vehicles, the domestic commercial vehicles production and sales in January to April respectively completed 1918000 and 1956000 vehicles, with 47% increase and 47.3% respectively. However, the growth rate of commercial vehicle production and sales in April fell to 1.2% and 2.3% year on year, and demand support was weakened. Foreign: Vietnam: according to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs of the country, the export volume of Vietnamese rubber reached 674million US dollars (4.32 billion yuan) in the first quarter of 2021, an increase of 103% year-on-year. The average price of rubber exports also Rose 14% in the first quarter, reaching US $1660 / T (10640 yuan / ton). Vietnam Rubber Association official said that the main reason for the increase in latex prices is mainly affected by COVID-19, and the supply of multinational goods is decreasing. Besides China, the US imports more rubber from Vietnam, while imports from Thailand and Indonesia are reduced because Vietnam has enough rubber cutting personnel. This is an opportunity for Vietnam to expand its market and increase its exports.

From the aspect of inventory, the total inventory of the previous period was 179866 tons (+910 tons) as of May 28, and the futures warehouse receipts were 176460 tons (-210). As of May 24, the inventory of Qingdao free trade zone was 98700 tons, a 5.35% decrease on a month-on-month basis; The general trade warehouse has 52.17 tons of inventory, down 3.89% on a month-on-month basis, and continues to go on to the inventory removal trend.

From the aspect of import and export, China: according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on May 7, China imported 577000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in April 2021, an increase of 15.6% year-on-year. From January to April 2021, China imported 2.367 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 9.7% compared with 2.588 million tons in the same period in 2020. Cambodia: according to the report issued by the Ministry of agriculture, forestry and fisheries, the export volume of Cambodian rubber in the first four months of this year fell 15% to 61056 tons year on year, compared with 71749 tons in the same period last year. Rubber export revenue reached $99.87 million, up 2.5 percent from $97.43 million last year. C’Ivoire: according to preliminary port data released on May 4, the export volume of Ivorian rubber totaled 24242621 tons in the first quarter of 2021, down about 30% from 346135 tons in the same period in 2020. Vietnam: according to the preliminary data released by the Ministry of industry and trade, the export volume of Vietnamese rubber in April 2021 was about 80000 tons, an increase of 92% year on year; The export amount is about US $143million, an increase of about 169% year on year. The total export of rubber from January to April was about 486000 tons, an increase of about 80% year on year; The total export amount was about 817 million US dollars, an increase of about 112% year-on-year. Thailand: according to the world daily report of Thailand, rubber export industry recently revealed that the trend of rubber export in 2021 has greatly improved. According to the latest data of the Ministry of Commerce, the rubber export volume in March was 349000 tons, up 65.5%, with a value of 587million US dollars, an increase of 109.2%. In the first quarter, the export volume of rubber was 870000 tons, up 10.7%, valued at $1.44 billion, up 38.1%. Especially in China, the demand is the first, accounting for 32% of the export share and 17% of the rubber demand; Secondly, the market of Malaysia, Japan and the United States has increased in demand; India’s market demand increased by 127 per cent and rubber products by 32.5 per cent.

From the perspective of industry hot spots, first, the core shortage is serious: due to the shortage of global chip supply chain, Thai media reported on May 9 that the output of Thai cars will be reduced by 40000 vehicles in 2021 year-on-year, and the automobile manufacturers must adjust the chip supply structure to meet the long-term demand. Since the end of 2020, the global automotive industry has been facing the shortage of micro controller, which is an important component of the chip, especially the electronic components used to control the operation of vehicle driving assist system and airbag system, which has caused many automobile manufacturers in many regions of the world to interrupt their production. Secondly, on May 25, the U.S. Ministry of Commerce released the final results of anti-dumping of semi steel tyres imported from Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. The final result of this year is generally better than that of last year. Among them, the region with the most obvious drop is Taiwan, China. A small number of brands have increased their “double reverse” tax, but the increase is small. Compared with the preliminary results of last year, the anti-dumping duties of Linglong tire and Zhengxin tire have been reduced. Among them, Zhengxin tire fell by more than 61%. The final result of the round is the same as the preliminary one, and the export market of the United States is not affected by the “double counter”. Third, the problem of core shortage affects the global automobile industry. Since the end of 2020, the global automobile industry has been facing the shortage of micro controller, an important component in the chip, especially the electronic components used to control the operation of vehicle driving assist system and airbag system, which has caused many automobile manufacturers in many regions of the world to interrupt production. The governments of major auto manufacturers such as the United States, Japan and Germany actively negotiate with chip manufacturers to speed up the production of automotive chips will help to alleviate the global chip shortage in the second half of the year. However, in the long run, the solution to the structural problems of the supply chain of automotive chips will still be the main challenge for automobile manufacturers.

On the back market, the business agency analysis shows that the natural rubber is in the normal supply period of new rubber. Although the supply of glue is slow, it is certain that the supply end pressure is expected to increase in June; At the same time, the domestic production area factory order situation is not good, the new glue price has been reduced; The operating rate of downstream tire enterprises continued to decline, and their purchasing demand for rubber decreased due to the decline of tire market demand; At present, the domestic natural rubber inventory is at a low level, and the market expects that the import volume will be low. The supply of new rubber continues to increase, the downstream construction continues to decline, the natural rubber support is not strong, the possibility of medium-term weak is relatively large, and the short-term natural rubber interval is likely to fluctuate slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the price of toluene continued to decline this week. On May 23, the price of toluene was 5926 yuan / ton; On Sunday (May 30), the price was 5800 yuan / ton, down 126 yuan / ton or 2.13% from last week; It was 59.35% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Domestic market, spot market demand weak, lack of guidance on the floor, weak market. In terms of external market, Asia’s external market was weak. As of May 28, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 740 US dollars / ton, down 27 US dollars / ton, or 3.52%, compared with May 21; The price of imported toluene in East China was 762 US dollars / ton, down 27 US dollars / ton, or 3.42%, on May 21.

In terms of crude oil, the resumption of Iran’s crude oil exports may be delayed, the recovery of market demand for crude oil is promising, and the US Gulf of Mexico oil field may be closed due to the storm, which boosted the rise of oil prices. However, the severe epidemic situation in India still restricts the recovery of demand. Brent rose $2.62/barrel, or 3.92%, on May 21; WTI rose $2.52 per barrel, or 3.96%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of East China TDI stopped falling and rose. Domestic products were priced at 14200 yuan / ton, up 1.43% over last week and 27.93% over the same period last year. At present, the domestic market is weak, the atmosphere in the market is light, the offer of the goods holder is stable, the price is down, and the purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream is general.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable this week, at 6400 yuan / ton, up 56.1% year on year. As of May 28, closing prices in Asia were 826-828 USD / T FOB Korea and 844-846 USD / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

The crude oil market is full of uncertainty, the downstream follow-up is general, some downstream devices are overhauled, and the demand is weak. Toluene market has a negative attitude and may continue to decline in the short term. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and gasoline blending price trend, toluene plant maintenance trends, toluene’s late arrival in Hong Kong and downstream demand changes on toluene price.

Trade name: NBR

Latest price (May 31): 20800 yuan / ton

Analysis points: according to the monitoring of business society, the domestic NBR price was 20800 yuan / ton on the 31st, which was stable. The price of raw butadiene has rebounded sharply since May and cost side support. According to the business society, the price of butadiene as of May 31 was 7378 yuan / ton, up 8.71% from 6787 yuan / ton in early May. In addition, the downstream products industry demand is general, the high price goods inquiry is rare, the merchant offer is relatively low, and the price of individual goods source is slightly tight. According to the business agency, on the 31st, the mainstream report of domestic Lanhua nitrile 3308 was 21000 yuan / ton, that of nantityane 1052 was 22000 yuan / ton, and that of lg6250 in South Korea was 20000 yuan / ton, and that of Russia 3365 was 18400 yuan / ton.

Post market forecast: the rising of raw materials has some support, but the overall demand of downstream does not change much, and it is expected that NBR will be stable in the later period.

Aluminum prices ended falling and rising on the 28th

According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingot in East China market in August was 18830 yuan / ton, up 2.52% in the day compared with the average market price of 18366.67 yuan / ton on the 27th.

It is reported that in late May, affected by the recent regulatory authorities’ interviews with key enterprises in black and non-ferrous industries, the domestic spot aluminum ingot price began to decrease, from 19680 yuan / ton on the 19th, to 18366.67 yuan / ton; The increase of aluminum price in May was mainly in the first ten days of the 28th, which was basically flat in the month, down from the average market price in early may (5.1).

Macro factors are slightly empty

At home, affected by the surge in the early period of commodity, the current policy is mainly to ensure supply and stability, and to curb the unreasonable rise of commodity prices in all aspects. The voice of policy departments has caused the expectation of market regulation on policy in the later period to rise, and the mood of commodity market has cooling signs.

Cost rise in some regions due to changes in cost side price policy

The Inner Mongolia development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of industry and information technology issued a notice that since February 10, 2021, the self-contained power plants pay policy cross subsidy according to the spontaneous self-use power consumption. The collection standards of Mengxi and Mengdong power grid are respectively 0.01 yuan and 0.02 yuan per kilowatt hour (including tax). The basic electricity price policy of 3.39 minutes per kilowatt hour in the electrolytic aluminum industry in Mengxi area is cancelled, and the reverse step transmission and distribution price policy of Mengxi power grid is cancelled.

On May 25, the Ministry of industry and information technology of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region issued the notice on adjusting annual transactions, saying that the coal price has risen sharply in the near future, and that many coal and electricity enterprises in Mengxi have suffered serious losses in the short term. In order to ensure the smooth and orderly trading of the power market, five power generation groups, such as the North Union Power Co., Ltd., were adjusted to generate electricity enterprises in May 2021 and beyond The annual transaction price of the first batch of power users and the proportion of new energy allocation of users in the first batch of 2021. The adjustment principle is that the annual increase of user transaction contract shall not exceed 0.02 yuan / kWh. See the attachment for the specific adjustment proportion.

Supply side

1. double control and balance the production schedule of new capacity

Yunnan and Guangxi are the major provinces of new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum this year. The recent energy consumption double control policy in Yunnan is more stringent, which will affect the production schedule of new production capacity to a certain extent.

According to statistics, the total capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Guangxi, Yunnan, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang is about 16.91 million tons, accounting for about 40% of the domestic built-up capacity.

2. profit increase capacity commencement rate rising

In April, the output of electrolytic aluminum was 3.35 million tons, an increase of 12.4% year-on-year, and a 3.9% increase on a month on month basis. The output of electrolytic aluminum from January to April was 13.32 million tons, an increase of 9.6% year-on-year.

The relative low level of aluminum social inventory supported strongly at the consumption end of aluminum

The data of aluminum ingot social inventory show that the inventory is relatively low in recent years. As of May 24, the domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was about 990000 tons, down 30000 tons from last week.

Spot consumption is good, and it is obvious to go to the warehouse. The terminal demand is expected to be good, the investment data of power grid is relatively stable, the data of real estate, home appliances and automobile are better, and the aluminum consumer end is supported strongly.

The construction profile enterprises in downstream are expected to start at 62.07% in April and 60% in May; The starting rate of industrial profile enterprises in April is 61.36%, and it is expected to be 62% in May; The start rate of aluminum plate and foil enterprises in April is 81.64%, and it is expected to be 81% in May; The start rate of A356 aluminum alloy company in April was 54.51%, an increase of 0.61% year on year.

Post market forecast

At present, the profit level of aluminum ingot manufacturers has risen greatly, and the profit per ton of manufacturers with better energy efficiency ratio is close to 4000-5000 yuan. With the implementation of the goal of carbon peak reached by China Aluminum Industry and the promotion of the “double control” policy of energy consumption of local governments, although the market is affected by macro sentiment, the spot market goes to the warehouse in the peak consumption season. It is expected that the spot aluminum ingot price will be mainly operated in the short term between 17000-19000 yuan / ton.

In the two recent executive meetings of the State Council, the rise of the bulk commodity market has been “named” continuously, which has aroused great concern in the market. However, the chemical industry market has shown a continuous decline in the past two weeks. According to the monitoring of business news (100ppi. Com), the chemical industry index was 1041 points on May 28, down 3.97% from the weekly peak of 1084 points (2021-05-13), It is 74.08% higher than the lowest 598 point on April 8, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now

In the first four months, the profits of industrial enterprises increased by more than 100% year on year. Under the strong recovery of the manufacturing industry, the prices of bulk commodities rose sharply. The inflation problem aroused great concern in the market. After the middle of May, the country continued to name the price rise of bulk commodities, and the market cooled rapidly. According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in the 21st week of 2021 (5.24-5.28), there are 26 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 4 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; There were 37 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, and 9 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 9.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three products were melamine (- 31.41%), bisphenol A (- 17.81%) and acetone (- 11.45%), showing a trend of more decline and less rise for two consecutive weeks. The 21 week average rise and fall was – 1.09%, and the 20 week average rise and fall was – 0.67%.

Weak supply and demand pattern and deep decline of Melamine Market

The melamine market has been in a downturn recently, with a sharp decline in the market. At present, the operating rate of melamine is high, but the downstream demand is weak, the shipment of enterprises is under pressure, the supply pressure continues to accumulate, dragging the market, and the market price is frequently low. However, the downstream is cautious about low price follow-up, and just needs to purchase. Melamine analysts of business news agency believe that the recent upstream urea price is strong, the cost side impact is relatively limited, supply and demand dominate the market, the demand side performance is weak, the market performance is still under pressure, and it is expected that the short-term melamine market will be weak.

Poor terminal demand bisphenol a market fell 21% on the 5th

Bisphenol a market in East China continued to fall. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the market negotiation on the 28th was close to 20000 yuan / ton, down 21% this week. The overall performance of bisphenol a market was extremely poor. Although the shippers kept reducing their offers, there were few market inquiries. The daily market low prices were emerging one after another. Rumors of low prices continued to affect the market mentality. In the middle of the week, Changchun chemical reduced 5000 yuan / ton and implemented 22000 yuan / ton, which increased the negative factors. Transaction situation is even worse, the mentality is seriously frustrated, short-term hard to say good. In the view of the business community, on the one hand, due to the depressed terminal demand market, the bearish attitude of the cargo holders is serious. Under the influence of the mentality of buying up but not buying down, the terminal’s wait-and-see mood for raw materials increases. On the other hand, the cost side fell, and after the name of the bulk market, the chemical industry as a whole showed a downward trend, the bad news under the industrial chain was diffuse, and the market mentality was seriously frustrated. The business community expected that the short-term bisphenol a market would continue to decline, and the offer of East China market was about 20000 yuan / ton.

Sharp contradiction between supply and demand

The acetone market fell significantly this week. According to the monitoring data of the business society, the acetone factory in East China fell by 15.64%, while the market situation fell by 6.6%. Therefore, the factory adjustment was relatively large this week, and the market continued the previous decline trend. From the perspective of business community, it is difficult to improve the contradiction between supply and demand in the acetone market in the short term. First, the supply of acetone is sufficient in the short term. Under the same plant, the phenol has been stable and small move in the near future, and the enterprise inventory is low. Therefore, the operation rate of the phenol ketone plant will remain high. It is expected that the supply of acetone will be sufficient in June; Second, it is difficult to say that the demand is optimistic, and the digestion of the terminal field is insufficient; The three room raw materials pure benzene and propylene have obvious downward trend, the phenol ketone industry chain has obvious downward trend, and the chemical industry has just started to decline for two consecutive weeks. Generally speaking, there are few positive factors. In the case of sharp contradiction between supply and demand in acetone market, it is difficult to reverse the market. It is expected that the short-term propylene ketone will maintain 5500-5700 yuan / ton.

Since the beginning of this year, the rapid rise of commodity prices has had a negative impact on economic expectations, inflation has increasingly affected people’s production and life, and national policy control has effectively curbed short-term speculation. Recently, the national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on the action plan for deepening the price mechanism reform during the “14th five year plan” period, which has taken many measures in a timely and effective manner, It will help to guide rational expectations in the market and squeeze speculative bubbles away. In this context, the short-term chemical products enter the cyclical rational callback stage. After a four month surge in 2021, the repair period will continue for some time. The company expects the chemical industry index to continue to decline in June.

According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the hydrogen peroxide Market returned to the rising market in May, the rigid demand of terminal increased, and hydrogen peroxide started to rise. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1070 yuan / ton. On the 27th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1106 yuan / ton, up 3.43%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide from March 1 to May 23, 2021, it can be seen that after the Spring Festival, the hydrogen peroxide Market weakened, with a decline of more than 3.6%. At the beginning of March, the hydrogen peroxide Market showed a sharp rise, or more than 5%. After the sharp rise, it began to dive, continuing the weak market. In April, in the middle of the month, hydrogen peroxide rose again, with an increase of more than 5%. After the May Day holiday, hydrogen peroxide was in a weak position and started a rising mode in the middle of the month. It rose to May 22, with an increase of more than 10%. Towards the end of the month, the hydrogen peroxide market had a correction.

On May 27, some domestic hydrogen peroxide manufacturers quoted the following prices:

Luxi Chemical hydrogen peroxide quoted 1000 yuan / ton, 50 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of May; Hebei Zhengyuan chemical fertilizer hydrogen peroxide quoted 1100 yuan / ton, the price increased by 140 yuan / ton; Anhui Quansheng chemical hydrogen peroxide quoted 1220 yuan / ton, the price increased by 70 yuan / ton; Hunan Shuangyang high tech chemical hydrogen peroxide quoted 1200 yuan / ton, stable.

Terminal rigid demand increases, hydrogen peroxide bottoms and rebounds

After May Day, the performance of hydrogen peroxide was not good. In the week of May 11, the purchase of hydrogen peroxide terminal paper industry increased, hydrogen peroxide made efforts again, and the rising trend restarted. Hydrogen peroxide enterprises continued to raise the ex factory price, and the average price of hydrogen peroxide Market exceeded 1000 yuan, or more than 6%.

In the week of May 18, the terminal rigid demand continued to improve. Shandong Mingshui chemical company had a shutdown plan at the end of the month, which was supported by the profit. The price of hydrogen peroxide still kept rising, with an increase of more than 10% compared with that on May 11.

At the end of the month, the price of hydrogen peroxide in Luxi dropped to some extent. The mainstream quotation was 1000 yuan / ton, and the price fell by 40 yuan / ton. Other manufacturers hydrogen peroxide Market is relatively stable.

On May 27, the commodity price index of hydrogen peroxide and caprolactam was 116.62, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 46.78% compared with the highest point 219.12 (2020-10-27) in the cycle, and increased by 29.79% compared with the lowest point 89.85 on January 29, 2019（ Note: period refers to the period from January 1, 2019 to now

The price of hydrogen peroxide terminal caprolactam continued to rise, driven by the rise of pure benzene market, with an increase of more than 5.4% in the whole may. Caprolactam market soared, manufacturers purchase hydrogen peroxide enthusiasm is higher, hydrogen peroxide terminal demand improved, prices back up.

On May 27, the price index of hydrogen peroxide and corrugated paper was 153.49, which was the same as yesterday. Compared with the highest point 246.00 in the cycle (October 21, 2019), it decreased by 37.61%, and increased by 42.73% compared with the lowest point 107.54 on January 29, 2019（ Note: period refers to the period from January 1, 2017 to now

After the May Day holiday, the price of corrugated paper is temporarily stable, but with the cancellation of nine dragon paper preferential policies, the price of base paper in some areas has slightly increased. With the recent rise in the price of waste paper raw materials, the price of corrugated paper showed an upward trend, and the price of paper increased by more than 6.6% in May. The paper mills are enthusiastic about purchasing hydrogen peroxide, and the hydrogen peroxide Market is getting better and rising.

Li Bing, hydrogen peroxide analyst of business news agency, said: hydrogen peroxide manufacturers stop for maintenance, and the demand of terminal papermaking market increases. It is expected that hydrogen peroxide will continue to rise in June.

According to the price monitoring of the business association, on May 26, the current price of domestic PTA slightly strengthened. The average price of the spot market was 4703 yuan / ton, down 0.39% in a single day. The main futures 2109 closed at 4718 yuan / ton, up 20 yuan / ton, or 0.43%.

At present, due to the adjustment of plant load, the main PTA suppliers are reducing the supply of contract goods. According to news, Yisheng contract reduced by 50% in June and Hengli supply reduced by 40% in June. At present, the operation rate of the industry remains around 83%. Hengli Dalian 2.5 million tons PTA plant is scheduled to start maintenance for two weeks on June 1, and it is expected that supply and demand will continue to go to the warehouse.

In the near future, crude oil fluctuated strongly, and the cost side still had good support. Downstream polyester market performance is flat, mainstream polyester production and sales are concentrated in 30% – 60%, individual better manufacturers can do flat. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory of polyester market is concentrated in 12-25 days, of which POY inventory is 9-21 days, FDY inventory is about 12-16 days, and DTY inventory is about 15-28 days. The price is mainly stable, and the quotation of individual factories is increased by 50 yuan / ton.

Xia Ting, an analyst at business news agency, believes that there are many positive factors, such as the decrease of supply in the current spot market, the expectation of equipment maintenance and the boost of crude oil. However, the performance of downstream polyester is tepid, and the new PTA plant is expected to be put into production. It is expected that PTA price will fluctuate slightly in the future, and the possibility of upward trend is relatively large.