Supply increases, demand weakens, aniline price weakens and declines (September 6-september 10, 2021)

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, aniline fell continuously this week. On September 3, the price of aniline in Shandong was 10700-10900 yuan / ton and that in Nanjing was 11100-11200 yuan / ton; On September 10, the price of aniline in Shandong was 10100-10300 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 10400-10600 yuan / ton, down 5.52% from last week, up 29.96% at the beginning of the year and 131.58% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

In terms of cost, in the early stage, the arrival of some ships was delayed, the port inventory was low, and the shipment of local refining enterprises was ok, so the price of pure benzene fluctuated and rose. It was reported in the middle of the week that a large styrene plant downstream was planned to be overhauled in October. The supply of styrene was expected to tighten, and the price rose sharply, driving the rise of pure benzene. This week, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene to 8000 yuan / ton. On Sunday (September 12), the price of pure benzene was 7950-8400 yuan / ton (the average price was 8080 yuan / ton), an increase of 380 yuan / ton or 4.94% over last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 136.95%.

The price of nitric acid fell this week. On Friday (September 10), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 3000 yuan / ton, down 0.99% from last week and up 100% from the same period last year.

Affected by environmental protection policies, the operating rate of the downstream in the North decreased and the demand for aniline decreased; Most aniline units overhauled in the early stage were restarted, the operating rate increased, and the on-site supply increased. Under the pressure of bad supply and demand, aniline fell continuously during the week, but the rising atmosphere in the raw material market was warm and gave some bottom support. At present, aniline is still above the 10000 mark.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost, the speculation in the pure benzene market driven by styrene is relatively short, the crude oil guidance is weak, and there is no major change in the fundamentals in the short term. Overall, it is expected that the trend of pure benzene will stabilize next week, and there may be a slight decline.

The short-term rising power of the cost side remains, and the support for the bottom of aniline is good. It is expected that the trend of aniline will stabilize next week. Entering the “golden nine silver ten”, the downstream operating rate may pick up and the demand is expected to be better. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material, downstream demand and the dynamics of aniline plant.