After the Spring Festival, polysilicon market continued to rise, continuing the trend before the festival, and the price rose significantly this week. According to the monitoring of business news agency, polysilicon rose by 9.73% from early February to March 4. The prices of domestic and imported materials have rebounded to varying degrees, mainly due to the increasingly tight supply under the premise of increasing demand. In fact, since February, polysilicon manufacturers have maintained a high operating rate. Only one of the 11 main silicon material manufacturers has been overhauled, and the production capacity has basically reached the limit. However, the downstream silicon material manufacturers purchase significantly in large quantities, which coincides with the rising price of silicon wafer in the downstream. The continuous price increase also provides a prerequisite for the opening of silicon material price rising space. As of March 4, according to the monitoring of the business agency, the current domestic mainstream transaction price of polysilicon with grade I solar material is 64000-68000 yuan / ton, and the tax inclusive price of polysilicon in non China region is 78000-81000 yuan / ton.
Since mid December 2020, the bottom of polycrystalline silicon has begun to rise. On the one hand, the recent production of polycrystalline silicon has not been expanded, and the rated output is about 35000 tons per month. Since the second half of last year, the new production capacity of silicon wafers in the downstream of silicon materials has been put into production one after another, and the centralized large-scale production at the purchasing end has resulted in the tight supply of polycrystalline silicon. In 2021, the market atmosphere is more positive. Both the transaction price of domestic manufacturers and the price of imported goods have a considerable upward range, especially the growth of monocrystalline silicon is more obvious, and the pattern of prosperous supply and marketing has continued to the present.
At present, the operating rate of domestic polysilicon manufacturers has been normalized, with 100 of them started operation. In March, about 11 domestic polysilicon manufacturers are in normal operation, especially in Sichuan, Ordos, Inner Mongolia and other regions where the plants contribute about 80% of the output. However, the current high operating rate has not led to stock accumulation. Large enterprises are in good condition to sign orders, and some large factories have signed orders in March, Some of them start to sign new orders for next month.
The rise in the price of downstream silicon wafers is the main driving force for the rise of polysilicon. As the leading silicon wafers Longji and Zhonghuan announced new brand prices one after another, the transaction price of single crystal silicon wafers rose in an all-round way. The rise in the price of silicon wafers covered the rise of silicon materials, which did not affect the shipment speed of silicon materials. At the same time, in the face of sharp increase in costs, terminal battery manufacturers are gradually planning to raise their prices. However, in the later stage, the operating rate of battery chips may be restricted by the cost, which will affect some parts of the market, which will also force the cost side to gradually recover its rationality.
The Business Association believes that in the near future, there is still room for polysilicon to go up. On the one hand, the price of silicon wafers is firm and the demand is stable; on the other hand, the inventory pressure of silicon material manufacturers is not big, and the price can still maintain high in the short term. However, on the other hand, due to the impact of power rationing in some areas a year ago, the decline of silicon output caused a shortage of supply. However, since March, with the increase of operation rate of manufacturers, silicon output will also increase, and the tight supply will become too loose. In addition, the terminal may be more and more negative to the surge of cost, so the possibility of reducing the operation rate cannot be ruled out. Therefore, it is difficult for the medium and long-term polysilicon to continue to rise sharply I think it’s succeeding.
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