Soda ash inventory declines and price rises sharply

1、 Price trend

 

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According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of domestic soda ash has risen sharply. The average market price in East China was 1416.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 1633.33 yuan / ton at the weekend. This week, the price rose by 15.29%, 25.64% compared with the beginning of the month and 5.41% lower than the same period last year. The commodity index of light soda ash on August 27 was 76.41, up 1.71 points compared with yesterday, 35.17% lower than 117.86 points (2017-11-21), and 21.00% higher than the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

2、 Market analysis

 

According to the instructions of the light soda Association, the price of light soda increased by RMB 200 / T in a week according to the spirit of the light soda Association. This week, the trend of domestic soda ash market is relatively strong, and the price of enterprises has increased greatly. The market atmosphere is flat, downstream demand has improved, and manufacturers are mainly active in shipping. Second, domestic soda ash inventory declined. According to statistics, the total inventory of domestic soda manufacturers was 842100 tons, down 90400 tons month on month. From the supply side, affected by natural disasters and other factors, the number of maintenance enterprises has increased recently. The domestic total operating rate is about 70%.

 

The price of domestic soda ash rose, and the downstream demand improved, but the overall situation showed a wait-and-see situation. The following figure shows the regional price quotation of light soda ash.

 

Regional price (yuan / ton)

North China 1600-1700 + 200

East China 1500-1650 + 200

Huazhong 1550-1650 + 200

Raw materials: the atmosphere of raw salt market in China is stable, and the prices in some regions have been raised. From the current understanding, the main production areas of sea salt supply performance is adequate. Some areas of supply and demand in well and mineral salt production areas have improved. The northern region has sufficient supply of goods, while the southern region is affected by heavy rainfall, and some salt enterprises are limited to start operation, and the price fluctuates slightly. The overall atmosphere of raw salt delivery is wait-and-see, and the market transaction is slightly cautious.

 

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In terms of demand: the overall trend of domestic float glass market is stable and slightly upward, with slight differences in different regions. In the Shahe area of North China, manufacturers have no pressure on inventory, and the willingness of manufacturers to support prices is relatively strong. The market turnover in East China is good and stable. The quotation of some manufacturers has been increased by 0.2-0.3 yuan / m2, while other manufacturers are mainly stable. The overall trend of the spot glass market in South China was general, and some manufacturers’ quotations rose slightly, about 0.3 yuan / m2, to boost market confidence. The transaction price in Central China is flexible. The market transaction prices in southwest, northwest and Northeast China are mainly stable.

 

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 33rd week (8.17-8.21) of 2020, there are 3 kinds of commodities rising, 1 kind of falling commodity and 1 kind of 0 commodity. The main commodities that rose were light soda ash (2.41%), PVC (2.21%) and calcium carbide (0.86%); the main commodities falling were hydrochloric acid (- 1.49%). This week, all rose or fell 0.8%.

 

However, analysts believe that the overall demand of soda enterprises in the downstream market is still strong. According to the statistics, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 842100 tons, and the total inventory of domestic soda ash is still at a high level. All enterprises adjust their prices according to their own conditions. It is estimated that after this round of price increase, the price of soda ash will tend to be rational and fluctuate slightly.

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