1、 Price data

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the price of Petroleum coke of the local refiner declined this week. On June 11, the average price of Shandong market was 1846.50 yuan/ton, down 1.60% from the price of 1876.50 yuan/ton on June 5.

On June 11, the Petroleum coke commodity index was 143.62, unchanged from yesterday, down 64.86% from the cycle’s highest point of 408.70 (2022-05-11), and up 114.71% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 30th, 2012 to the present)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of Petroleum coke produced by local refineries continued to decline. Local refineries actively discharged their stocks. The downstream was in a strong wait-and-see mood, and the trading was average. At present, the port Petroleum coke inventory is still high, and the terminal just needs replenishment, so the overall trade is average.

The international crude oil market has been volatile this week. Affected by the favorable supply of Saudi Arabia’s plan to deepen production cuts, the bullish sentiment in the market has diluted the bearish sentiment of rising US refined oil inventories and weak Chinese data. The international crude oil prices are in a consolidation trend.

The price of calcined coke remained basically stable this week. This week, metal silicon declined slightly. As of June 11, the average price of 441 # metal silicon in the Spot market was 14090 yuan/ton. The downstream electrolytic aluminum market is on the rise, with an average price of 18666.67 yuan/ton as of June 11th. Downstream enterprises have a strong wait-and-see attitude and low enthusiasm for receiving goods, with on-demand procurement being the main focus.

Petroleum coke analysts from the business agency believe that: at present, domestic Petroleum coke supply is sufficient, local refining Petroleum coke delivery is average, refineries actively arrange stocks, downstream enterprises have a strong wait-and-see mood, receiving enthusiasm is not high, and procurement is mainly on demand. It is expected that the local refining of Petroleum coke in the near future will be dominated by weak points.

Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price trend of Cryolite in Henan is stable. On June 9, the average market price in Henan was 7850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the average price of 7850 yuan/ton on June 3, up 0.32% month on month.

quotations analysis

This week, the Cryolite market is waiting to be sorted out, and the manufacturer’s quotation is stable and small. The upstream operating rate is low, the raw material support continues to be favorable, Cryolite production is under pressure, the on-site devices operate at low load, the enterprise inventory is maintained rationally, the downstream is more resistant to high prices, the market purchase follows up as required, Cryolite enterprises are wait-and-see, maintain an active shipping, the market negotiation atmosphere is improved compared with last week, some enterprises ship smoothly, the inventory is lower, and Cryolite prices are slightly increased. As of June 9, the ex factory quotation of Cryolite in Shandong was 7000-8600 yuan/ton, with an increase of 100 yuan/ton; The ex factory quotation of Cryolite in Henan is 7200-8900 yuan/ton, and the price is increased by 100 yuan/ton within the range.

Upstream fluorite prices have slightly decreased, with an average market price of 3136.25 yuan/ton as of June 9, a decrease of 0.24% compared to the price of 3143.75 yuan/ton on June 3. The operating rate of fluorite enterprises has slightly increased, and spot supply has increased. However, mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and the shortage of raw material supply continues to exist, providing support to the fluorite market. The price decline is not significant, and the market situation is wait-and-see.

The downstream aluminum market first fell and then rose. On June 9th, the aluminum price was around 18666.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.45% compared to the price of 18583.33 yuan/ton on June 3rd. Terminal consumption is weak, downstream demand support is insufficient, market trading and negotiation are the main focus, and some regions have significantly reduced inventory. Adjustments and increases are made based on their own shipment situation, resulting in fluctuating aluminum prices.

Future Market Forecast

Cryolite enterprises are short of raw materials in stock. Upstream support continues to be good. The manufacturers maintain a positive shipping attitude, and the market mentality is good. Downstream market entry follows up as required. Market transaction and investment negotiations are the main topic. Supply and demand in the market are relatively stable. It is expected that Cryolite market will wait and see later.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of Paraformaldehyde in Shandong Province has recently dropped in shock. At the beginning of the week, the average production price of Paraformaldehyde in Shandong Province was 4850.00 yuan/ton, and at the weekend, the average production price of Paraformaldehyde in Shandong Province was 4775.00 yuan/ton, down 1.55%, 5.68% month on month, and 11.30% year on year.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market is weak and the support for methanol production costs is weakened. The Baofeng unit is recovering, the supply in mainland China is increasing, and the local formaldehyde load is decreasing, resulting in a decrease in methanol demand. As prices decline, traders and downstream sentiment weaken accordingly. The ex factory price of methanol in the southern region of Shandong is referenced to be around 2130 yuan/ton in cash exchange, while the delivery price in Linyi is referenced to be around 2150-2170 yuan/ton in cash exchange. The local methanol factory in central Shandong quoted a price of 2150-2190 yuan/ton for self delivery. The negotiated price range for methanol in the Dongying area of Shandong Province is 2080-2090 yuan/ton.

Recently, the methanol market is weak and low, and the cost support is poor. It is difficult for downstream demand to change significantly in a short time. The Paraformaldehyde analysts of the business agency predict that the price may fall slightly.

Product name: Sulfur

Latest price: On June 6th, the average sulfur price in East China was 833.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.63% compared to the previous working day price of 820.00 yuan/ton.

Analysis: The domestic sulfur market is on the rise, with prices generally rising. The operation of refinery units in Shandong region is average, and the market supply remains rational. The consumption in the end industry is off-season, and downstream enthusiasm is weak. Entering the market to obtain goods is mainly based on demand, while sulfur manufacturers are actively shipping. Some enterprises have good shipments, and inventory has decreased, leading to an upward trend in sulfur prices.

Future forecast: Currently, there is no inventory pressure in sulfur refining plants, downstream demand is limited, and there is a lack of effective support for positive market conditions on the market. Under the supply and demand game, it is expected that the sulfur market will be sorted out, and prices may fluctuate slightly. Please pay attention to the follow-up situation downstream.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China on May 29th was 5433 yuan/ton. On June 5th, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5266 yuan/ton. This week, the price of chlorinated paraffin 52 decreased by 3.07%.

2、 Market analysis

Chlorinated paraffin market prices fell this week. This week, the price of raw material liquid chlorine fluctuated, while the price of raw material liquid wax fell, weakening cost support. Downstream demand is weak, with primary demand for procurement and flat market trading. As of June 5th, the factory price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui region is about 5800 yuan/ton, the factory price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast region is about 5000 yuan/ton, and the factory price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong region is about 4500-5000 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax has continued to decline this month, and market demand is weak. Liquid wax fluctuates with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine has fluctuated and fluctuated this month. At present, the market situation is unstable, and manufacturers’ shipments are average.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Chlorinated paraffin analysts from Business Society believe that the recent trend in raw material prices is weak, with limited cost support. The performance of terminal demand is average, and the market trading atmosphere is light. It is expected that the chlorinated paraffin market price is weak in the short term.

The sluggish situation of the domestic acetone market is difficult to change, and the focus of negotiations continues to decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the negotiated price of acetone in the East China region dropped from 5350 yuan at the beginning of the week to 4950 yuan/ton on June 2, and the average price in the national market dropped from 5895 yuan/ton to 5195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.87%

The terminal demand is severely insufficient, and actual orders in the market are rare. There is a serious lack of follow-up on the demand side, with very few customers actively entering the market for procurement. Holders are under pressure and have a high intention to sell out. Major mainstream market quotations are constantly declining, and factories have had to lower their listing prices multiple times in an inverted situation. Downstream factories are mainly wait-and-see, which hinders the procurement process.

The acetone offers in major mainstream markets across the country on June 2nd are as follows:

Region/ Quotation/ Weekly decline

East China region/ 4950./-400

Shandong region/ 5150./-600

Yanshan region/ 5250./-700

South China region/ 5450/- eight hundred

The factory has to lower its listing price due to being upside down. On the 2nd, Sinopec’s listing price in East China was 5200 yuan/ton, while Sinopec’s listing price in North China was 5200 yuan/ton. The listing price of Lihua Yiwei Yuan acetone dropped to 5100 yuan/ton. In the face of market downturn, the acetone factory lowered its listing price. And currently, the losses of phenolic ketone factories are increasing.

The operating rate of domestic phenolic ketone enterprises has been adjusted. Jiangsu Hengrui’s 650000 ton/year phenolic ketone plant was shut down for maintenance on May 30th, and Mitsui’s 400000 ton/year and Lihuayi’s first unit resumed restart on the 29th. Zhejiang Petrochemical’s Phase II 650000 ton/year phenolic ketone plant restarted in June.

As the market continues to decline, terminal factories at the beginning of the month are mainly focused on digesting contracts, with insufficient proactive procurement and difficulty releasing short-term actual orders. It is expected that the market will still struggle to improve next week, and there are also expectations of further bottoming out.