This week, the melamine market was affected by the geopolitical event in the Strait of Hormuz and the resonance of domestic spring farming demand, resulting in a rapid upward trend in prices, presenting a cost dominant, supply-demand tight, and high-level oscillation pattern, becoming a strong product in the chemical sector.

1、 Market performance
As of March 4th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6150 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.02% and a cumulative increase of 4.05% in the past 5 days. The price has hit the high range of the year. Domestic mainstream factories have raised their quotations by 50-350 yuan/ton, resulting in tight spot circulation and sufficient orders from manufacturers. The focus of transactions has steadily shifted upwards, and downstream industries such as sheet metal and adhesives are following up as needed, with strong ability to handle urgent needs.
2、 Core driver
The passage through the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, Iran’s methanol exports are restricted, and 60% of China’s imported methanol relies on Middle Eastern sources. The daily increase in methanol spot prices exceeds 7%, directly pushing up the production cost of urea; Urea, as the core raw material of melamine, has been raised to 1800-1870 yuan/ton in the main production areas, forming a cost transmission chain of methanol → urea → melamine, providing strong support for the price of triamine. At the same time, the increase in crude oil and shipping costs further raises the cost center of the entire chemical industry chain.
Supply and demand fundamentals support
1. Supply side: The industry’s operating rate remains at 55% -60%. After the Spring Festival, some equipment maintenance has not been fully restored, and the pace of new capacity release is relatively slow. The market’s spot supply is limited, and manufacturers’ reluctance to sell is heating up.
2. Demand side: After the holiday, the sheet metal and molding plastic industries have fully resumed work, and spring plowing and fertilizer preparation have driven the peak season of urea demand. Downstream demand for replenishment has been released, and the market is supported by basic needs, with no obvious pressure to accumulate inventory.
Dual support of cost and emotion
The support for the peak season of urea spring plowing has not subsided, coupled with the geographical premium of methanol, the cost side of melamine continues to strengthen; The market has a strong bullish sentiment, and traders are moderately stocking up, further boosting prices and forming a positive cycle of “cost increase → quotation increase → transaction follow-up”.
3、 Market risk
The upward trend in the market is still subject to multiple constraints: the overcapacity pattern of melamine in China has not changed, and the resumption of production and the introduction of new production capacity in the future will suppress the increase; The downstream demand for sheet metal is moderately recovering, and high prices may trigger resistance; If the Strait of Hormuz resumes operations, the decline in methanol will weaken cost support; At the same time, urea is subject to supply guarantee and price limit constraints, which indirectly limits the upward potential of triamine.
4、 Trend prediction
Short term (mid March): Strong fluctuations at high levels, with a price range of 6100-6400 yuan/ton. The geopolitical premium has not dissipated, supported by urea spring plowing and tight supply, and the upward trend continues but narrows.
Mid term (late March to April): gradually peaking and falling back. The demand for spring plowing has receded, urea has weakened, coupled with a rebound in supply, cost support has weakened, prices have returned to fundamentals, and the fluctuation range has moved down to 5800-6100 yuan/ton.

In recent times, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has suddenly escalated, and shipping safety risks in the Strait of Hormuz have intensified. International crude oil prices have surged significantly, leading to the overall strengthening of energy driven sectors. As an important synthetic rubber variety downstream of crude oil, butadiene rubber (BR) has seen a significant increase driven by cost and sentiment.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 3, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 13670 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.07% from 13010 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Mainly affected by increased inventory, decreased raw material prices, and insufficient downstream production after the holiday.
The surge in crude oil prices has opened up space for cost increases
The Middle East conflict directly impacts the global energy supply chain, with Brent crude oil and domestic crude oil futures soaring significantly. The price of raw materials for butadiene rubber has risen, providing solid bottom support for butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 3rd, the price of butadiene was 10293 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.00% from 9993 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
On the 3rd, the futures of Shunding rubber significantly jumped short and opened high, and the spot market followed suit positively. Mainstream suppliers such as PetroChina and Sinopec raised their ex factory prices, while spot prices in East China, North China, and Shandong collectively rose, and the weekly increase significantly expanded.
High inventory pressure, slow demand repair
After the holiday, the overall operation of domestic butadiene rubber plants will remain at 80% load, and the market supply is abundant. However, some plants are scheduled for maintenance in March, and there is a marginal contraction expectation on the supply side. But after the holiday, social inventory continued to accumulate to a high level, becoming the main suppressing factor for price increases and limiting the room for growth. Downstream tire companies are gradually resuming work and production, but the recovery is slow. In the early stage, overall procurement was mainly based on demand, and there is currently a weak willingness to chase after high prices. The demand side has not yet formed a strong driving force.
Overall, the recent rise in butadiene rubber prices is a result of both cost and emotional benefits brought about by the Middle East conflict, rather than a fundamental reversal in supply and demand patterns. Before the conflict clearly eases, crude oil is prone to rise but difficult to fall, and the pattern of strong fluctuations in butadiene rubber continues. However, high inventory and weak reality will lead to a fluctuating upward rhythm and significantly increased volatility.

In the evening session, Shanghai tin fell sharply, with the main contract falling more than 7% at one point. Today, the price center continued to shift downwards, and the main contract hit the limit down in the late session, with a drop of 12%, at 394890 yuan/ton.

The changes in the local geopolitical situation in Myanmar have not yet had a substantial impact on the production and transportation of tin mines. At the same time, substantial progress has been made in addressing the long-standing challenges that have hindered the development of Myanmar’s mining areas, and the Wa State region may be expected to achieve full resumption of production. In addition, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, and market panic is spreading, causing Shanghai tin prices to hit the limit down.
supply side
The resumption of tin mining in the Wa State of Myanmar is accelerating. On February 27, 2026, the Wa State Industrial and Mineral Management Bureau issued a notice on the cost allocation process related to deep mines, which detailed the cost sharing process, aiming to further promote the resumption of production in high-grade tin mining areas at low altitudes. With the re establishment of stable expectations for tin ore supply in Myanmar, the emotional factors that previously supported the market have weakened.
demand side
There is a clear trend of structural differentiation, with strong expectations for demand growth in emerging fields such as AI computing infrastructure and advanced packaging. However, traditional demand areas have shown a sluggish performance, and overall demand presents a significant feature of strong expectations and weak reality coexisting. In February, downstream consumption significantly contracted, and even after excluding the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, the actual demand level was only barely satisfactory. At present, tin prices are still relatively high in history, and the high cost pressure greatly inhibits the enthusiasm of end users to replenish inventory.
In terms of the spot market, the supply side situation is turbulent, and at the same time, macro risks have reappeared, resulting in significant price fluctuations and adjustments. Traders’ willingness to ship has increased, and the quantity of goods shipped has also increased; Although the terminal market has not fully resumed production, the low price advantage has attracted some users to make purchases. At present, the activity of the spot market has significantly increased compared to before, and according to market feedback, the trading situation has improved.
comprehensive analysis
The situation in Iran continues to escalate and ferment, and in this market situation, risk assets are easily killed by market sentiment. Currently, funds are mainly focused on chemical products, and Myanmar has accelerated the pace of resuming production. However, in the short term, due to factors such as tight raw material supply and expectations of production, there is still some support below, and it is expected that the market will maintain a high volatility trend. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this week (3.1-3.3), with an average market price of 435060 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 411120 yuan/ton as of March 3, a decrease of 5.48%.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on February 28, 2026, the reference market price for domestic silicon metal # 441 was 9540 yuan/ton. Compared to February 1 (the market price for silicon metal # 441 was 9650 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.14%.

Supply and demand are weak in February, and the silicon metal # 441 market is experiencing a narrow decline
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in early February, the domestic market price of metal silicon 441 # showed range oscillation. At the beginning of the month, some areas stopped work for maintenance, resulting in a reduction in on-site supply and a narrow increase in the market price of silicon metal 441, with an increase of 10-50 yuan/ton. However, due to cautious demand and limited market price increases, the market has fallen. On February 14th, the reference market price for metal silicon 441 # in East China was 9300-9600 yuan/ton.
Returning from the holiday, the metal silicon market still lacks effective support, and loose supply and demand transmission still exists. The overall focus of market price negotiations has declined. On February 28th, the reference price for the metal silicon market in East China was 9200-9500 yuan/ton, with a decrease of about 100 yuan/ton in the latter half of the year.
fundamental analysis
On the supply side: In February, the overall production of metallic silicon in China was at a low level, and the supply side showed a contraction. However, some factories did not have a strong willingness to lower prices, and the transmission effect on the supply side was average.
In terms of demand: In February, the downstream demand for metallic silicon showed average follow-up performance, and the organic silicon market was in the off-season, with limited performance in raw material procurement and stocking. The demand for polycrystalline silicon was cautious, with a focus on essential procurement. Overall, the purchasing enthusiasm in the end market was not strong, and the overall stocking performance was rational.
Market analysis in the future
The overall demand recovery of the metal silicon market after the holiday is slow, and the downstream inquiry atmosphere is light. The metal silicon data analyst of Business Society predicts that the weak supply-demand pattern in the metal silicon market will continue in the short term. By mid March, the inquiry atmosphere in the metal silicon market may improve, and the overall market demand will steadily increase. More attention needs to be paid to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province rose this week (2.24-2.28), with an average market price of 16550 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 16750 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.21%.

The magnesium market continues to steadily recover after the holiday, with prices showing a moderate upward trend. The mainstream transaction price of Mg99.90 raw magnesium has risen by about 200 yuan/ton since the market opened after the holiday. As of February 27th, the mainstream ex factory cash price including tax in Shaanxi production areas has risen to 16600-16700 yuan/ton. The overall market is in a tight supply-demand balance state: there is a strong reluctance to sell on the supply side, and spot circulation is tight; Downstream enterprises on the demand side are resuming work and accelerating, but the replenishment of inventory has not yet been fully released. New orders are mainly delivered before the holiday. The high cost provides a solid bottom support for prices, and it is expected that magnesium prices will continue to rise slightly next week as downstream production resumes comprehensively.
supply side
The production end remains stable. Magnesium smelting enterprises in the main production areas of Shaanxi and Shanxi have maintained normal production without large-scale maintenance or shutdown. According to research, the comprehensive operating rate in the main production areas is about 75% -80%, which is basically the same as before the holiday. Some companies have reported that due to sufficient pre-sale orders before the holiday, the current focus is on executing pre orders, and the available resources for spot sales are limited. The reluctance to sell drives up the quotation. Affected by cost support and optimistic expectations for the future market, factories are generally reluctant to sell at low prices.
Demand side:
Downstream processing enterprises resume work in an orderly manner. As the impact of the Spring Festival holiday fades, the return rate of employees in processing enterprises such as magnesium alloy and magnesium powder has increased, and most enterprises have returned to 60% -70% of their normal production level. However, the procurement pace is relatively cautious, mainly constrained by two factors: first, the pre holiday inventory is still being digested, and the enterprise has not yet started large-scale replenishment; Secondly, there is a wait-and-see attitude towards the current continuously rising prices, hoping to purchase after the prices stabilize. This week’s spot market transactions were mainly based on pre holiday order deliveries, with relatively light new order transactions, but the activity of inquiries has significantly increased compared to last week.
comprehensive analysis
Overall, the magnesium market has steadily advanced in the post holiday recovery channel this week, with tight supply-demand balance and cost support jointly driving prices up moderately. With the traditional peak consumption season approaching in March, the market is expected to usher in a pattern of strong supply and demand, and magnesium prices have the foundation to continue to rise.

According to data from Shengyi Society, the rise of non-ferrous metal tin was particularly prominent in the commodity market on February 27th. The early tin price was reported at 431640 yuan/ton, up 14.06% from 378420 yuan/ton before the holiday. The stock market linkage effect is obvious, with both Tin Industry Co., Ltd. and Huaxi Nonferrous Metals hitting the daily limit up today.

The significant increase in tin prices is driven by a combination of tight supply, explosive demand, low inventory, and capital resonance.
On the supply side, the resumption of production in the Wa State mining area in Myanmar fell short of expectations, while about 70% of China’s tin concentrate relies on imports from Myanmar; Combined with the tightening of export quota control and slowing down of approvals in Indonesia, the world’s second largest tin exporting country, the increase in overseas supply continues to be restricted. Data shows that in January 2026, global tin ore production decreased by 8.3% year-on-year, and China’s tin concentrate imports decreased by 15% month on month.
On the demand side, market expectations continue to improve: the amount of tin used for a single AI server is 3-5 times that of traditional models, HBM、 Advanced packaging significantly increases unit tin consumption; New energy vehicles use three times more tin per vehicle than traditional fuel vehicles; Due to the strong demand for electronic soldering and semiconductor packaging, downstream stocking is active and traders are reluctant to sell, further driving up prices.
At the same time, the attribute of tin as a key strategic metal has been re recognized by the market, attracting speculation and allocation funds to enter, driving the price of tin ingot futures to strengthen.
From the perspective of trading logic, changes in commodity prices directly affect the profits of related listed companies, and commodity price increases usually lead stock prices by 5/10/20/30 days. Tracking the trend of commodity prices helps to capture the layout opportunities of cyclical stocks in advance.
Business Society Stock Connect Value Cycle Stock Selection Tool, which can rely on the N-day rise of commodities to screen hot varieties and explore investment opportunities in value cycle stocks; It is also possible to capture key buying signals for cyclical stocks ahead of quarterly and annual reports through the data of commodity price increases during the cycle.

Cobalt prices fluctuated upward after the holiday

According to the Commodity Cobalt Market Analysis System of Business Society: On February 26, the cobalt price was 440,100 yuan/ton, fluctuating up from 425,300 yuan/ton on February 14, marking a 3.48% increase; compared to February 1′s price of 444,800 yuan/ton, it first fell and then rose, showing a 1.06% decrease. After the Spring Festival, with the recovery of new energy vehicle sales and rising demand in the cobalt market, coupled with reduced supply, the cobalt price fluctuated upward in the post-holiday period.
Cobalt market supply outlook
On February 18, Sumitomo Corporation announced that its Ambatovy nickel-cobalt project in Madagascar was shut down due to damage to its facilities from Tropical Cyclone Gazu, which struck the island last week. Ambatovy, owned by Sumitomo, produced approximately 28,000 metric tons of nickel and 2,500 tons of cobalt in 2024, with the state-owned Korea Mining and Reconstruction Corporation (KOMIR) involved. The suspension of cobalt production in Madagascar is expected to reduce market supply.
Cobalt market demand trends
According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in January 2026, China’s new energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.041 million and 945,000 units respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 2.5% and 0.1%. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 40.3% of total automobile sales. Data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance showed that in terms of power battery installations: in January, domestic power battery installations totaled 42.0 GWh, a 57.2% month-on-month decline but a 8.4% year-on-year increase. Among this, lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) battery installations reached 9.4 GWh, accounting for 22.3% of total installations, down 48.6% month-on-month but up 9.6% year-on-year. Although new energy vehicle production and sales saw slight growth in January, the declining share of NMC battery installations, coupled with the promotion of low-cobalt batteries, has led to reduced expectations for cobalt market demand growth.
Market Overview and Future Outlook
Business Society data analysts believe that the slow growth in new energy vehicle production and sales, coupled with declining demand expectations in the cobalt market, the shutdown of cobalt mines in Madagascar, and reduced supply in the cobalt market, along with post-February holiday restocking by domestic downstream customers, led to a temporary rise in cobalt demand. Overall, supported by demand and reduced supply, cobalt prices are expected to fluctuate upward in the future.

The price of silver showed a high amplitude and high volatility trend before the holiday, and the market has already digested the weight of its price fluctuations in advance; On February 25th, the rare earth sector experienced a major outbreak, with Baosteel Group and Northern Rare Earth rising by the daily limit, while China Rare Metals approached the daily limit, and China Rare Earth also saw a significant increase.

Previously, the rare earth market had already experienced two rounds of upward trend. According to the Shengyi Society Rare Earth Index, rare earth prices have risen twice from July to September 2025 and January 2026 to present. Among them, rare earth related stocks rose violently in sync during the price increase period from July to September 2025, and the convergence effect was significant; However, the second wave of rare earth price increases that began in January 2026 showed a certain lag in the upward trend of related stocks before the holiday compared to the rise in rare earth prices.
From the perspective of market trading logic, changes in commodity prices directly affect the profit performance of corresponding listed companies, and commodity price increases usually lead stock price increases by 5/10/20/30 days. By paying attention to commodity price trends, buying opportunities for stocks can be discovered in advance.
The value cycle stock selection tool of Business Society Stock Connect can rely on the price increase of commodities within n days to screen hot commodities and explore investment opportunities in value cycle stocks; At the same time, it is also possible to capture buying signals for value cycle stocks by releasing commodity price increase data in advance of the quarterly and annual reports of listed companies during the quarterly reporting cycle. According to the stock news of Shengyi Society, after the holiday, four products in the bulk commodity market, namely silver, dysprosium ferroalloy, dysprosium oxide, and dysprosium metal, showed outstanding gains, with gains exceeding 5%. The significant increase in prices of heavy rare earth related categories further ignited the market’s performance expectations for the rare earth industry in the first quarter of 2026.

As of 14:15 in 2026, the main PTA contract of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen by more than 3% to 5390 yuan/ton. The spot market followed the rise, and according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the spot price of PTA in East China was 5333 yuan/ton on February 24th, an increase of 2.93% compared to the previous trading day.

During the holiday period, crude oil prices showed strong performance, providing favorable support for the cost side. The market is still concerned about the uncertainty of US Iran relations, coupled with the lack of substantial progress in the Russia Ukraine peace talks, and the rise in international oil prices during the Spring Festival. On February 19th, WTI、 Brent crude oil futures closed up 4.59% and 4.35% respectively; On February 20th, the two oil prices hit $67.03 and $71.66 per barrel respectively, setting a new high in nearly half a year, with a cumulative increase of over 5% in the past two days.
In terms of self supply, during the Spring Festival holiday, Yisheng New Materials’ 3.6 million ton PTA plant was temporarily shut down on February 24th due to unforeseen circumstances and is currently recovering. The industry’s production capacity is operating at around 70%, which has temporarily halted the pace of PTA inventory accumulation. In 2026, there are currently no plans for new PTA plants to be put into operation in China, and the industry’s capacity expansion has entered a “window period”. At the same time, the expansion pace of downstream polyester is still continuing, and it is expected to show a trend of tight supply and demand.
On the demand side, in the short term, due to the support of holiday costs, downstream polyester factories have raised their quotations to varying degrees. The terminal market is still in holiday mode. The operating rate of the pre holiday stretch, weaving, and printing and dyeing industries has significantly decreased to around 120%, while the load of the polyester industry has also fallen to around 76%. With the end of the Spring Festival holiday, strong expectations for the “Golden Three and Silver Four” are still in place. In early March, domestic textile and clothing enterprises will see a concentrated resumption of work and production, and terminal orders are expected to gradually recover, thereby driving the steady increase in polyester load and driving PTA essential procurement.
Business analysts believe that crude oil prices will continue to strengthen during the holiday, and after the holiday, various products in the PTA industry chain will mainly follow suit. Short term oil prices will continue to be dominated by supply disruptions and geopolitical risks. Against the backdrop of supply disruptions not completely subsiding, geopolitical risks continuing to rise, and strong expectations of OPEC suspending production increases, oil prices may experience wide fluctuations in the near future. In the downstream polyester market, due to the gradual resumption of production and work by terminal enterprises, the operating rate has recovered, and there is a certain demand for replenishing raw materials. The continuous accumulation of PTA social inventory will be alleviated. It is expected that the PTA market will maintain a strong expectation in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) on February 5th was 6915 yuan/ton, and on February 10th it was 6790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.81%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 8916 yuan/ton on February 5th and 8733 yuan/ton on February 10th, a decrease of 2.06%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on February 5th was 7392 yuan/ton, and on February 10th it was 7375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24%.

Recently, polyethylene has shown an overall trend of weak volatility and light pre holiday trading.
Supply side: There are still a large number of new facilities planned to be put into operation in 2026, and the pattern of oversupply in the medium and long term is difficult to change.
Demand side: Seasonal off-season with light trading volume. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream factories are gradually shutting down for holidays, with a particularly significant decline in the operating rates of agricultural film and packaging film. Logistics are gradually being shut down, and pre holiday purchases have basically ended. The market is dominated by rigid demand, with light new orders.
On the cost side: Crude oil is fluctuating and the support is unstable.
In the short term, weak demand dominates, and cost and geopolitical factors provide disturbances, leading to a narrow range of fluctuations in polyethylene.