According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic price of sodium pyrosulfite was stable as a whole this week. The average price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite was 1683.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 1683.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, which was stable as a whole.

2、 Market analysis

After new year’s day, the overall performance of domestic sodium pyrosulfite market was stable. In December, the price of upstream raw materials was weak and stabilized, and the cost of raw materials stopped falling and stabilized. This week, the market price range of industrial sodium pyrosulfite is 1550-1750 yuan / ton, most of which are concentrated in 1600-1700 yuan / ton. Enterprise production is stable, mainly to complete the old customer orders, new orders increase is limited. (the above prices are quoted by domestic mainstream enterprises, and some enterprises not quoted are not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation).

This week, the domestic soda price was stable as a whole, and the sulfur price fell by 1.97%. Overall, the raw material cost of sodium pyrosulfite was weak and stabilized, and the future market price of sodium pyrosulfite continued to fall with limited space.

3、 Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the overall cost of raw materials tends to be stable, and the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite will be stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of steam coal will continue to rise in early 2021. On January 1, the average market price of steam coal was 818.75 yuan / ton, and on January 10, the average market price of steam coal was 878.75 yuan / ton, up 7.33%. Since the fourth quarter, the price of steam coal has continued to rise, from the average market price of 631 yuan / ton in early December to 878.75 yuan / ton on January 10, with an increase rate of 39.26%, which can be described as a “good start” in 2021.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of origin, the tight supply in the fourth quarter of 2020 will be affected by environmental protection policies, especially by the reduction of coal production in Inner Mongolia. As of November 2020, the output of raw coal in Inner Mongolia is 889 million tons, 5.9% lower than that in the same period of the previous year. At present, there is not much coal in the main producing areas, so the coal price keeps rising. The output of Shaanxi Province is still low.

Downstream power plants: frequent cold air attacks, the temperature in many parts of the country “diving”. The year-on-year growth of coastal power plants has been around 18%, and the year-on-year growth of daily consumption data on January 7 has reached 30%. Although the inventory increased for three consecutive days under the influence of import increment, with the new high of daily consumption, the inventory went down again. At the same time, the total available days fell below 10 days. At present, the main stream price of 5500 kcal steam coal is 870-890 yuan / ton, and the main stream price of 5000 kcal steam coal is 770-810 yuan / ton.

Macro: according to Argus, in the past two months, the number of coal exports from Australia’s Newcastle port to China has dropped sharply, with only 430000 tons in November and zero in December. According to the shipment data compiled by Argus, in December 2020, Newcastle port exported 14.4 million tons of coal, up 26.87% from 11.35 million tons in November, but down 7% from 15.48 million tons in the same period of last year. From January to December 2020, Newcastle port exported 160 million tons of coal, down 3.4% from 166 million tons in the same period of last year.

Business analysts believe: the major coal enterprises promise to speed up coal production, but in the Spring Festival, under the premise of safe production, the incremental supply of producing areas will not be very optimistic. At present, the daily coal consumption of power plants in eight coastal provinces is far more than that of the same period in previous years. Under the high consumption, the number of days available for inventory decreases rapidly, and the number of days available for inventory of some power plants drops below the warning line. On the whole, the short-term steam coal price may maintain a strong trend, and the trend may narrow slightly, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business association, on January 8, the average price of salicylic acid (industrial grade) mainstream manufacturers was 13933 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week and the same as that at the beginning of the month, down 9.13% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The salicylic acid market is stable this week. After the new year’s day, the price of salicylic acid has not been adjusted, but the downstream demand has increased, the purchase intention is obvious before the Spring Festival, the attitude of the industry is positive, the delivery is free of pressure, and the offer is firm. According to the price monitoring of the business association, as of January 8, the quotations of salicylic acid industrial enterprises were mostly in the range of 12000-15000 yuan / ton, with little fluctuation. The quotations of pharmaceutical grade enterprises were mostly in the range of 23000-25500 yuan / ton, and the quotations of sublimation grade enterprises were mostly in the range of 15000-20000 yuan / ton. The actual transactions were mainly through negotiation.

Raw material phenol, 2020 is an extraordinary year. After the festival, all parts of the country stopped production and logistics transportation was blocked. Phenol market also experienced an unusual period in this year. In the first half of the year, it showed a deep “V” trend. Although it hit a new low in the first half of the year, it recovered its decline at the end of June, which was the highest in the year. In the second half of the year, we went through hardships and difficulties, but failed to break through the strange circle. According to the monitoring data of the business community, phenol (national market) was offered at 7487 yuan / ton on January 1, 2020, and then it was just around the spring festival that the market smoothly transited. After the festival, the domestic epidemic uncertainty continued to increase, and the market entered a rapid downward trend. Like most products in the industrial chain, phenol (national market) was offered at 4900 yuan / ton on April 3, Among them, the East China market is as low as 4500 yuan / ton (the lowest in ten years according to the monitoring of business community). In the second quarter, the market continued to release favorable information, and the market rebounded quickly. As of June 10, phenol (national market) was offered at 7925 yuan / ton, the highest in the year. In the second half of the year, the phenol market went through a very difficult period. First of all, it experienced a long downturn. In November, it was supported by downstream bisphenol A, which improved slightly. However, compared with other products coming out of the “high light moment” in the industrial chain, phenol made only a few upward breakthroughs in the fourth quarter, and finally continued to cross the year in a depressed state.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in the 1st week of 2021 (1.4-1.8), there were 27 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose month on month, among which 4 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities were propylene glycol (10.29%), ethylene (5.98%) and propane (5.47%). There were 32 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 4 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 products with a decrease were acetone (- 13.28%), n-butanol (industrial grade) (- 10.78%) and isopropanol (- 8.47%). This week, the average rise and fall was – 0.34%.

3、 Future forecast

Salicylic acid analysts of business news agency believe that: after new year’s day, the price of salicylic acid has not been adjusted for the time being. At present, the downstream demand is increasing, the purchase intention is obvious before the Spring Festival, the salicylic acid manufacturers have no pressure to ship, the mentality is positive, the offer is firm, and the price is expected to be stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, on January 1, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 2116 yuan / ton, and on January 8, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 2083.33 yuan / ton, down by 1.58%.

According to the data of the business club’s block list, on January 1, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2440 yuan / ton, and on January 8, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2440 yuan / ton, which remained stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of map declined slightly in the first week of January. The price of 55% ammonium powder in Anhui Province is 2050-2100 yuan / ton, and the start-up is stable. In Hubei Province, 55% of the factory price of ammonium powder is about 2000-2100 yuan / ton, and 58% of the factory price of ammonium powder is 2150-2200 yuan / ton. The market in Henan Province is stable and small. 55% ammonium powder is priced at about 2000 yuan per ton, and the start-up is stable. The price of 55% ammonium powder in Shandong Province is 2100-2150 yuan / ton, which is stable. The ex factory price of 55% ammonium powder in Sichuan is about 2000-2100 yuan / ton.

Diammonium phosphate remained stable in the first week of January. The main stream price of 64% diammonium in Hubei is 2400-2500 yuan / ton, and that of 64% diammonium in Gansu is 2450 yuan / ton. The price of 64% diammonium in Yunnan is 2650-2800 yuan / ton. The price of 64% diammonium in Guizhou is 2750 yuan / ton. The first arrival price of 64% diammonium in Heilongjiang Province is about 2550-2780 yuan / ton.

In January 2021, after the new year’s day, the market quotation of phosphate rock in Guizhou and other mainstream areas was increased by 10-20 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price of the market was close to the high end. The price increase was mainly due to the support of demand. Near the Spring Festival, the downstream stock increased, the orders increased, and the mine shipment was improved compared with the previous period. At present, the domestic phosphate rock market is in gas supply With the improvement of the atmosphere, the timely follow-up of downstream demand, the increase of new single purchase volume, and the boost of the confidence of the phosphate rock industry, the phosphorus ore analysts of the business community believe that the phosphorus ore market will be mainly stable and strong in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of ammonium phosphate of business news agency believe that the demand for downstream compound fertilizer is stable at present, but Duowei just needs to purchase, and the market trading enthusiasm is not high. Most monoammonium phosphate enterprises mainly supply early orders, and some enterprise prices fall slightly. Overall, the market is still relatively stable, and it is expected that the price of monoammonium phosphate may be weak and stable in the short term. The price of DAP is stable this week, and the supply of DAP is still tight. The industry has a strong wait-and-see mentality. However, the raw materials have risen recently, and the cost support is strong. It is expected that the trend of DAP will continue to be stable, and there is a rising expectation.

Price trend of mixed xylene in 2020

In 2020, the price of mixed xylene will fall precipitously, then fluctuate in a weak position, and rise slightly at the end of the year. On January 1, 2020, the average price of mixed xylene was 5570 yuan / ton, and on December 31, 2020, the average price of mixed xylene was 3954 yuan / ton, which decreased by 1616 yuan / ton or 29.01% compared with that in 2020 at the beginning of the year

In 2019, the lowest average price of mixed xylene appeared on January 3, with the price of 4878.57 yuan / ton; in 2020, the lowest price of mixed xylene appeared on April 7, with the price of 3070 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 1808.57 yuan / ton or 37.07% compared with that in 19 years. In 2019, the highest price of mixed xylene is 6910 yuan / ton from September 23 to September 29; in 2020, the highest price is 5720 yuan / ton from January 13, a decrease of 1190 yuan / ton or 17.22% compared with that in 19 years. In 2020, the price difference between the highest price and the lowest price of pure benzene is 2650 yuan / ton, and in 2019, the price difference between the highest price and the lowest price of pure benzene is 2031.43 yuan / ton.

Under the influence of the domestic epidemic, the price is almost cut off

The trend of mixed xylene and toluene is basically the same in 20202. In the early spring festival, affected by the weak seasonal demand and the coming of the Spring Festival, the pre year stock price of mixed xylene rose to the highest point in the year, and then began to soften slightly to the end of January.

After the festival, the price of mixed xylene fell precipitously, and the price was almost cut by the waist. With the outbreak of the domestic epidemic, the national transportation has stagnated, the consumption of gasoline has fallen precipitously, the storage of refined oil has accumulated, and the demand for blending xylene has shrunk seriously. In addition, the process of domestic enterprises’ resumption of work and production is slow, and the starting load of mixed xylene downstream drops to the freezing point, so the overall demand is weak.

The price war in oil producing countries has led to a deep drop in costs

At first, affected by the domestic epidemic, Brent crude oil fell to US $56.62/barrel and WTI crude oil fell to US $51.56/barrel for fear of China’s fuel demand decline and economic depression. With China’s epidemic under control and OPEC + production cut, oil prices experienced a brief rebound. However, the good news did not last long. In March, OPEC + production reduction agreement negotiations broke down, Saudi Arabia, Russia and other oil producing countries launched price wars, and crude oil fell sharply. In the first quarter of 2020, Brent oil prices fell by more than 70%, while WTI oil prices fell by nearly 60%.

Brent oil price

WTI oil price

The deep drop of cost caused the avalanche of domestic chemical product market, and the market of mixed xylene entered the trough.

Weak demand and price deadlock

With the gradual improvement of China’s epidemic situation, the oil price rebounded, and the downstream also recovered to a certain extent; in addition, the foreign mixed xylene market was less affected by the epidemic situation, and the mixed xylene price in Europe and America was higher than that in Asia, which led to the opening of Asia us arbitrage window. Domestic enterprises returned to work and production, the demand for gasoline increased greatly, and the early inventory accumulation was not much, so the mixed xylene rebounded in April.

But the good times are not long. The outbreak of epidemic situation in foreign countries has dealt a great blow to the economy of many countries. The price war between oil producing countries has worsened the oil price, caused a sharp drop in crude oil, and seriously reduced the demand for energy and chemical products. The price of mixed xylene in Europe and the United States dropped sharply. At this time, the domestic economy gradually recovered, the price of mixed xylene rose, the internal and external market surplus, the import volume of mixed xylene increased gradually, the inventory accumulated, and the market supply pressure increased day by day. Downstream demand is weak, inventory pressure is prominent, mixed xylene prices in mid April and early April entered a stalemate after rebounding from the bottom.

Cost side: after April, with OPEC + reaching a large-scale production reduction agreement, the superposed epidemic situation has improved, the demand for crude oil has increased, and the international oil price has begun to rise. The period from August to October is relatively stable. Supply side: favorable balance of internal and external market, increased import volume of mixed xylene, high inventory, difficult to consume. Demand side: the demand for downstream oil transfer, TDI, PX, etc. continued to be low, while the demand for downstream goods remained rigid, and the demand for mixed xylene continued to be insufficient. The downstream demand of “Jinjiu Yinshi” mixed xylene also showed no signs of improvement.

Brent oil price

WTI oil price

Unexpected slight increase at the end of the year:

Compared with previous years, in November, due to seasonal factors, mixed xylene entered the traditional off-season. However, in November 2020, there will be a major breakthrough in foreign new vaccines, the dust of the US general election will be settled, and OPEC + will continue to push forward the production reduction agreement. The oil price will open an upward channel. From November to December, Brent will increase by more than 35%, and WTI will increase by more than 30%. Driven by the sharp rebound in oil prices, chemicals have significantly rebounded, and mixed xylene has a small increase following the big stream.

Brent oil price

WTI oil price

In terms of refined oil, the overall price of gasoline showed a fluctuating upward trend after April, and rose to the highest point since late March on December 21, with the price at 5773.17 yuan / ton.

Gasoline price

In December, due to the impact of environmental protection policies, the consumption of benzene in downstream solvents decreased significantly; although the price of refined oil rose, the demand for gasoline blending was general, and the demand side of downstream Px, PTA and ox remained weak, and the mixed xylene ended in a weak decline.

Outlook for 2021:

In 2021, the petrochemical industry will recover as a whole, and the chemical industry will recover as a whole. However, the mixed xylene market is expected to be weak in the early 2021, and the contradiction between supply and demand is still the main factor restricting the price. In addition, the bad news of the epidemic could not be eliminated in the short term, and the trend of mixed xylene in 2021 was under pressure. Mixed xylene analysts of business news agency believe that the trend of mixed xylene in 2021 needs attention: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of us oil wells and the inventory data of crude oil and refined oil. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery progress of downstream industrial chain, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, US dollar index and stock market linkage.

Toluene price trend in 2020

In 2020, the price of toluene will fall in a cliff like manner, and then fluctuate in a weak position, with a slight increase at the end of the year. On January 1, 2020, the average price of toluene was 5470 yuan / ton, and on December 31, 2020, the average price of toluene was 3730 yuan / ton, which was 1740 yuan / ton lower than that of 2020, a decrease of 31.81%

In 2019, the lowest average price of toluene appeared on January 2, with a price of 4450 yuan / ton; in 2020, the lowest price of toluene appeared from April 3 to April 6, with a price of 3050 yuan / ton, which was 1400 yuan / ton lower than that in 19 years, with a decrease of 31.46%. In 2019, the highest price of toluene is 6610 yuan / ton on September 25; in 2020, the highest price is 5610 yuan / ton on January 10-13, which is a decrease of 1000 yuan / ton or 15.13% compared with that in 19 years. In 2020, the price difference between the highest price and the lowest price of pure benzene is 2560 yuan / ton, and in 2019, the price difference between the highest price and the lowest price of pure benzene is 2160 yuan / ton.

Precipice style decline, price nearly “cut back”:

From the beginning of January to the beginning of April in 2020, the price of toluene will drop precipitously, and the price will be almost cut off.

At the beginning of the Spring Festival, due to the weak seasonal demand and the coming of the Spring Festival, the stock price of toluene before the year rose to the highest point in the year, and then began to soften slightly to the end of January.

After the festival, the price of toluene fell precipitously, and the price was almost cut off. With the outbreak of the domestic epidemic, the national transportation has stagnated, the consumption of gasoline has fallen precipitously, the storage of refined oil has accumulated, and the demand for toluene oil transfer has seriously shrunk. In addition, the process of domestic enterprises returning to work and production is slow, and the starting load of toluene downstream has dropped to the freezing point, so the overall demand is weak. At this time, a number of toluene refineries shut down or reduced load operation, supply pressure gradually reduced. During the Spring Festival, the amount of toluene arriving in Hong Kong is small, and the enterprise inventory itself is at a low level before the Spring Festival, so the increase of toluene inventory is small.

In terms of crude oil, initially affected by the domestic epidemic, Brent crude oil fell to US $56.62/barrel and WTI crude oil fell to US $51.56/barrel due to concerns about the decline of China’s fuel demand and economic repression. With China’s epidemic under control and OPEC + production cut, oil prices experienced a brief rebound. However, the good news did not last long. In March, OPEC + production reduction agreement negotiations broke down, Saudi Arabia, Russia and other oil producing countries launched price wars, and crude oil fell sharply. In the first quarter of 2020, Brent oil prices fell by more than 70%, while WTI oil prices fell by nearly 60%.

Brent oil price

WTI oil price

In terms of refined oil, affected by the epidemic, transportation is limited, and gasoline and diesel stocks have accumulated. Combined with the impact of low crude oil prices, gasoline fell by more than 25% from January to March, while diesel fell by more than 20%. The price of toluene dropped from 5510 yuan / ton at the end of January to 3050 yuan / ton.

Gasoline price:

Diesel price

Weak demand and price deadlock

With the gradual improvement of China’s epidemic situation, the oil price rebounded, and the downstream also recovered to a certain extent; in addition, the foreign toluene market was less affected by the epidemic situation, and the toluene price in Europe and America was higher than that in Asia, which led to the opening of Asia US arbitrage window. Domestic enterprises returned to work and production, gasoline demand has increased greatly, coupled with the lack of early inventory accumulation, toluene ushered in a wave of rebound in April.

But the good times are not long. The outbreak of epidemic situation in foreign countries has dealt a great blow to the economy of many countries. The price war between oil producing countries has worsened the oil price, caused a sharp drop in crude oil, and seriously reduced the demand for energy and chemical products. The price of toluene in Europe and the United States dropped sharply. At this time, the domestic economy gradually recovered, the price of toluene rebounded, the internal and external market surplus, the import volume of toluene gradually increased, the inventory accumulated, and the market supply pressure increased day by day. The downstream demand is weak, inventory pressure is prominent, and the price of toluene has entered a stalemate stage in mid April and early April after rebounding from bottom hunting.

Cost side: after April, with OPEC + reaching a large-scale production reduction agreement, the superposed epidemic situation has improved, the demand for crude oil has increased, and the international oil price has begun to rise. The period from August to October is relatively stable. Supply side: the internal and external market surplus, toluene imports increased, inventory high difficult to consume. Demand side: the demand for downstream oil transfer, TDI, PX, etc. continued to be low, while the demand for downstream goods remained rigid, and the demand for toluene continued to be insufficient. There is no sign of improvement in the downstream demand of toluene during the “golden nine silver ten” period.

Brent oil price

WTI oil price

Unexpected slight increase at the end of the year:

Compared with previous years, November to December is the traditional off-season. In November, due to seasonal factors, the demand for refined oil weakened, which led to the weakening of toluene demand. However, in November 2020, driven by the sharp rebound of oil prices, chemicals have a significant rebound, and toluene has a slight rise following the trend.

In terms of crude oil, there was a major breakthrough in foreign new vaccines in early November. The dust of the US election was settled. In addition, OPEC + continued to push forward the production reduction agreement, and oil prices opened an upward channel. From November to December, Brent rose by more than 35% and WTI rose by more than 30%.

Brent oil price

WTI oil price

In terms of refined oil, the overall price of gasoline showed a fluctuating upward trend after April, and rose to the highest point since late March on December 21, with the price at 5773.17 yuan / ton.

Gasoline price

In December, due to the impact of environmental protection policies, the consumption of benzene in downstream solvents decreased significantly; although the price of refined oil rose, the demand for gasoline blending was general, and the downstream PX and TDI start load were normal, so the demand side remained weak, and toluene ended with a weak decline.

Outlook for 2021:

In 2021, the petrochemical industry will recover as a whole, and the chemical industry will recover as a whole. However, the toluene market is expected to remain weak in the early 2021, and the contradiction between supply and demand is still the main factor restricting the price. In addition, the bad news of the epidemic cannot be eliminated in the short term, and the trend of toluene in 2021 will be under pressure. Toluene analysts of business news agency believe that the trend of toluene in 2021 needs attention: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of us oil wells and the inventory data of crude oil and refined oil. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery progress of downstream industrial chain, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, US dollar index and stock market linkage.

Price trend of pure benzene in 2020

According to the data monitoring of the business community, pure benzene will rise after a cliff like decline in 2020. On January 1, the price of domestic pure benzene was 5600-5950 yuan / ton (average price: 5880 yuan / ton). On December 31, the price of domestic pure benzene was 3920-4400 yuan / ton (average price: 4204 yuan / ton). This year, the price of pure benzene dropped 1676 yuan / ton, or 28.5%.

In 2020, the lowest average price of pure benzene is 2420 yuan / ton from April 3 to April 4; in 2019, the lowest average price of pure benzene is 4200 yuan / ton from April 3 to April 8, which is 1780 yuan / ton lower than that in 19 years, with a decrease of 42.4%. In 2020, the highest average price of pure benzene is 5880 yuan / ton on January 1; in 2019, the highest average price is 5900 yuan / ton from December 24 to December 26, which is 20 yuan / ton lower than that in 19 years, with a decrease of 0.34%. In 2020, the price difference between the highest price and the lowest price of pure benzene is 3460 yuan / ton, and in 2019, the price difference between the highest price and the lowest price of pure benzene is 1700 yuan / ton.

Precipice decline stage:

From the beginning of January to the beginning of April in 2020, the overall price shows a cliff like downward trend. On January 1, the price of pure benzene reached the highest point of the whole year – 5880 yuan / ton, then slightly weakened to the end of January, and continued to decline after the year. On April 3, it reached the lowest point of the whole year – 2420 yuan / ton, a decrease of 58.84%.

With the outbreak of the epidemic at the beginning of the year, the process of domestic enterprises returning to work and production was slow, and the downstream start-up load was low; coupled with the limited logistics, it was difficult to improve the demand, and the pure benzene entered the decline stage. In terms of crude oil, affected by the epidemic in March, countries introduced measures to restrict travel, resulting in a sharp drop in demand for crude oil; in addition, Saudi Arabia, Russia and other oil producing countries launched price wars, resulting in a sharp drop in crude oil. Brent oil prices fell nearly 65% in March, while WTI oil prices fell more than 45%. The price of pure benzene has fallen to 2420 yuan / ton, the lowest point of the whole year in early April. The sharp drop of crude oil led to the decline of pure benzene production cost, and the starting load of pure benzene enterprises was high. However, the recovery of downstream demand is slow, market supply exceeds demand, and enterprises accumulate inventory. The port inventory of pure benzene was about 80000 tons in early January and 150000 tons in early April.

Brent oil price

WTI oil price

The first shock rising stage:

From the beginning of April to the first ten days of June in 2020, the overall trend is fluctuating, with an increase of over 50%.

With OPEC + reaching a large-scale production reduction agreement, the superposed epidemic situation has improved, the demand for crude oil has increased, and the international oil price has begun to rise. Brent oil price rose by more than 130% in the second quarter, WTI oil price rebounded by more than 60%, and the rising cost supported the rise of pure benzene. In addition, the epidemic situation in foreign countries has improved, the blockade measures have been gradually relaxed, the resumption of work and production of factories has been accelerated, and the price of pure benzene has risen, which has pushed the domestic price higher. Since the end of March, the import volume of pure benzene has increased rapidly, and the port inventory has accumulated substantially, from about 100000 tons in the end of March to about 220000 tons in the first ten days of June.

Brent oil price

WTI oil price

Shock and fall stage:

From the middle of June to the end of July, the overall trend was volatile.

With the first resumption of production in China, foreign pure benzene flows into China for arbitrage, and the import volume of pure benzene is large, while the export volume is greatly reduced. The port inventory of pure benzene gradually accumulated, but the terminal demand was relatively limited, and the high inventory was difficult to consume, which was the main reason why the price of pure benzene was difficult to rise and then fell. From mid June to the end of July, the port inventory of pure benzene increased from about 220000 tons to nearly 270000 tons.

In the stage of narrow range fluctuation, there are three stages

Since the listing price of Sinopec’s pure benzene was adjusted to 3400-3450 yuan / ton on August 5 (down to 3300 yuan / ton on August 14), the price of Sinopec’s pure benzene continued to stabilize until October 8.

In this stage, the pure benzene market is relatively stalemate, high inventory is difficult to consume in the short term, and the downstream demand support is insufficient, so it is difficult for pure benzene to continue to rise. In the third quarter, the downstream production capacity of pure benzene was increased, and the export pressure of pure benzene was reduced, which supported the price. In terms of crude oil, although the epidemic situation in foreign countries is tightening, the economy continues to recover, OPEC + production reduction continues to advance, and the oil price has entered a relatively stable stage. From mid June to the end of October, oil prices fluctuated mainly in a narrow range. Compared with March to April, the international oil price increased significantly, which also supported the price of pure benzene. In this stage, the port inventory of pure benzene has little change.

The second shock rising stage:

From the middle of October, pure benzene began to rise for the second time. By December 31, the price was 4204 yuan / ton, up 28.17%. The highest price is 4576 yuan / ton from December 8 to 9.

In the first half of the period, the profit of styrene production and marketing surged sharply. In addition, the long-term good performance of the downstream and the strength of the spot market gave the capital confidence, and the control of capital entering the market rose, which led to the sharp rise of the spot price. The strong rise of styrene price led to the rise of pure benzene. In the later stage, with the environmental protection inspection and low temperature off-season, the demand of styrene downstream gradually weakened from north to south. Styrene manufacturers actively reduced prices and promoted sales, and the northern supply impacted and suppressed the East China market. The price of styrene softened, and the profit taking of pure benzene decreased slightly; with the increase of external buying, the demand of pure benzene in Europe and America increased, and the price rose, which led to the opening of arbitrage window in Asia and the United States, and the pure benzene in Asia rose to a high level, boosting the recovery of domestic market. In terms of crude oil, although the epidemic situation continues to affect the oil market, the new crown vaccine has made a major breakthrough. The oil price has opened an upward channel, and the decision of OPEC + to gradually increase the supply of crude oil in early December has also released a positive signal to the oil market. Brent and WTI rose by more than 20% in this stage. In this stage, the port inventory of pure benzene decreased by about 13000 tons.

styrene

Brent oil price

WTI oil price

Outlook for 2021:

Crude oil: OPEC + will increase the daily output of crude oil by 500000 barrels from January 1, 2021. The daily output of Libya’s crude oil will recover rapidly, and the signs of increased supply have brought pressure to the market. In winter, the epidemic situation may rebound, and the impact of the epidemic is difficult to subside in the short term. It is estimated that the demand of crude oil market will still be under pressure in 2021. However, with the launch of vaccine, the crude oil market will be benefited to some extent, and the oil price will rise as a whole. In addition, geopolitical risks in the Middle East exist for a long time. Overall, the crude oil demand will gradually recover in 2021, and the oil price will probably continue to rise, but the uncertainty of demand and the risk of supply may limit the range of the rise. The uncertainty of crude oil market brings challenges to pure benzene market.

Downstream: as the vaccine is put into use, the negative impact of the epidemic will gradually weaken, the global economy will gradually recover, and the bulk market as a whole will improve. In 2021, the domestic styrene industry still has a huge capacity investment plan, with an additional capacity of 4.49 million tons / year, and the production time is concentrated in the first and fourth quarters. In 2021, the contradiction between supply and demand of styrene is still large, and the pressure of oversupply still exists. Next year, the price of styrene will be balanced by the operating rate of domestic enterprises, import volume, port inventory and the enthusiasm of downstream taking goods.

Pure benzene shows a recovery trend as a whole, and the downstream demand support of pure benzene is expected to strengthen, but the high inventory is difficult to consume in the short term, and the contradiction between supply and demand of pure benzene is still large in 2021. In the later period, the price trend of pure benzene can be seen from the price trend of crude oil, external pure benzene and downstream styrene.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rose slightly this week and then fell back, with 7305 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 7293 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a weekly decline of 0.16%; while the weekly high price was 7323 yuan / ton on Thursday, with a weekly decline of 0.41%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business club, the propylene price declined all the way at the end of December, and began to rise on New Year’s day. On the 4th, the price was increased by about 100 yuan / ton. On the 5th and 6th, the price was mainly stable, with only a few enterprises going up. On the 8th, some prices fell. Now, the market transaction is between 7250 yuan / ton and 7500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is still around 7250 yuan / ton. Factory inventory is general, stable delivery.

On January 6, the crude oil price rose obviously, but on January 7, it still rose, which had a certain positive impact on propylene.

This week, the spot price of PP fell after rising, with no rise or fall, and the weekly amplitude was 0.41%, which had little impact on propylene.

This week, acrylic acid market is stable, the impact on propylene is limited.

This week, the market of propylene oxide was stable after going up continuously, with a weekly increase of 1.05%, which had a slightly positive impact on propylene.

Epichlorohydrin fell slightly this week, with a weekly decline of 1.33%, which had a small negative impact on propylene.

This week, the domestic n-butanol price all the way down, with a weekly drop of 10.78%, which has a more obvious suppression effect on propylene.

Octanol market is also all the way down this week, with a weekly decline of 6.80%, which also has a negative effect on propylene.

Isopropanol market also fell all the way this week, with a weekly decline of 8.47%, which also had a negative impact on propylene.

In the middle of this week, phenol in East China fell significantly and then stabilized, with a weekly decline of 3.36% and a weekly amplitude of 3.51%, which had a slight negative impact on propylene.

This week, acetone in East China went down all the way, with a weekly drop of 13.28%, which has a significant suppression effect on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

Propylene analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: Generally speaking, the current inventory is general, and the crude oil price has risen slightly, but I don’t know the strength of the future upward trend. The operation rate of the downstream market has risen slightly, and most of the negative ones are occupied. Therefore, it is expected that the recent propylene price will be mainly affected by the game between the crude oil market and the downstream trend.

Silver and gold both plummeted on Friday night

1. Domestic spot silver plummeted by 8.96% and gold plummeted by 3.67%

According to the tracking data of business news agency, on January 8, 2021, domestic precious metal spot gold and silver plummeted at night. As of 02:30 on January 9, the latest price of Au (T + D) was 381.01 yuan / g, down 3.67%, and the latest price of Ag (T + D) was 5098 yuan / kg, down 8.96%.

2. Ag2102, the main domestic futures contract, plummeted by 9.12% and au2102 by 3.87%

As of 02:30 on the 9th, the latest price of main contract au2012 dropped by 15.38 yuan / g to 381.01 yuan / g, or 3.87%; the latest price of main contract au2016 dropped by 15.56 yuan / g to 383.84 yuan / g, or 3.90%; the latest price of main contract ag2102 dropped by 514 yuan / kg to 5125 yuan / kg, or 9.12%; the latest price of main contract ag2106 dropped by 9.12% Down 531 yuan / kg to 5175 yuan / kg, or 9.31%.

3. The price of CME precious metals stopped falling and recovered slightly in non China trading period

In the non China trading session, at about 16:00 Beijing time on the 8th, the price of precious metals in the external market plummeted and dived sharply, followed by the low opening of the domestic night market; after the end of the domestic night market, the price of precious metals in the external market stopped falling and rebounded slightly.

News factors

1. U.S. non farm data as expected

At 21:30 Beijing time on January 8, the U.S. Department of labor updated the non-agricultural employment data for December 2020, showing that in December 2020, the number of non-agricultural workers decreased by 140000, expected to increase by 50000, the former value increased by 245000, and the unemployment rate was 6.7%.

After 22 million jobs were lost in the job market in March / April 2020, 140000 jobs were lost again in December, and 12 million jobs were recovered in the year. The data in June is the most optimistic, as shown in the figure below

 
According to the ADP data of “small non-agricultural” in December, the number of employees in December decreased by 123000, far lower than the expected increase of 75000 and the previous increase of 307000. Although the US ism non manufacturing PMI recorded 57.2 in December, a new high since September last year, the ISM employment index reversed the upward trend of the previous three months and dropped to 48.2. Ism reported that manufacturing employment increased during the month, but employment in the service sector decreased.

2. Trump’s Twitter account is permanently suspended, Biden’s trillion dollar stimulus plan is expected to strengthen

Trump’s Twitter account has been permanently suspended. Biden said that he would talk to House Speaker Pelosi and Democratic leaders on January 9, Beijing time, and propose a comprehensive stimulus package. The number will be very “large”. Details of the stimulus plan, which is expected to be released next Thursday, will be trillions of dollars in size. Biden said he would use financial means to fight the epidemic, vaccinate teachers with new crowns and insist on wearing masks in all federal jurisdictions.

The market began to look forward to the post trump era. However, trump said that he would seek the possibility of establishing his own platform. The US political situation may still have a game before trump is “cool”.

3. In November, the global central bank’s net sales showed a momentum recently

According to the latest data released in January 2021, from January to November 2020, the global central banks’ overall net purchase of gold showed a trend of net sales in the near future, including the first net sales in August and September, the return in October, and the net sales in November. The monthly increase and decrease of global central banks’ gold reserves are as follows:

In November, the central banks selling gold were Turkey (20.9 tons) and Mongolia (2.4 tons); the central banks buying gold were Uzbekistan (8.4 tons), Qatar (3.1 tons), India (2.8 tons), Kazakhstan (1.7 tons) and Ukraine (0.6 tons). As of November 2020, the world’s official gold reserves totaled 35191.1 tons. The top 15 official gold reserves in the world are as follows:

Future forecast

The price of precious metal gold and silver continued to rise in December. According to the data of business news agency, the monthly increase of domestic spot gold was 6.57%, and the monthly increase of spot silver was 19.44%. In the recent three trading days, the price of precious metal began to fluctuate horizontally and downward. Ye Jianjun, an analyst at the business news agency, believes that before the crash, the price touched the previous high shock range, and the resistance of upward attack increased. On the other hand, the profit-making disk surged sharply, and the demand for profit-making funds out of the horizontal situation increased. There was a slight flurry, and the funds squeezed each other to stop the profit. At present, with half of the increase in December, the price may gradually stop falling and stabilize. It is expected that the stop falling level in the near future will be higher than that at the end of November.

The year 2020 has passed quietly. We have experienced too many hardships and witnessed one historical moment after another. The outbreak of global health events, the sudden collapse of international crude oil, the five fusions of the U.S. stock market, and so on, all tell the extraordinary story of 2020. From the perspective of octanol, please step into the octanol market in 2020 with the pace of octanol analysts of business clubs, and take a look at the experience of 2020 from the perspective of octanol.

Price trend of Shandong octanol in 2020

As can be seen from the above figure, in 2020, the ex factory price of octanol in Shandong Province decreased slightly at the beginning of the year, rebounded to the bottom in the middle of the year, and tended to be stable. At the end of the year, it soared to the sky, reaching the highest price in five years. As of December 31, the average ex factory price quoted by mainstream octanol manufacturers was 11833.33 yuan / ton, up 4866.66 yuan / ton or 69.86% compared with 6966.67 yuan / ton quoted at the beginning of the year. It can be seen from the trend chart that the highest price of octanol in 2020 appeared on December 21, with an average price of 11866.67 yuan / ton, and the lowest price appeared on April 3, with an average price of 5066.67 yuan / ton, the lowest in four years. The price difference was 6800.00 yuan / ton, and the amplitude was 134.21%.

【2】 Shandong octanol price fell 22.49% in the first quarter

In the first quarter of 2020, the price of octanol dropped precipitously. The ex factory price of octanol dropped from 6966.67 yuan / ton on January 1 to 5400.00 yuan / ton on March 31, and the quoted price dropped by 1566.67 yuan / ton, or 22.49%. Overall, Shandong octanol market fell significantly in the first quarter. In March 2020, the ex factory quotation of octanol decreased from 6583.33 yuan / ton on March 1 to 5400.00 yuan / ton on March 31, with a decrease of 1183.33 yuan / ton, the largest monthly decrease of 17.97%.

In the first quarter of 2020, public health incidents suddenly broke out, and China actively adopted the measures of flow control and isolation, but the production and sales of octanol were affected, especially the demand side declined seriously, the terminal shut down was more and the downstream market returned slowly, and the demand recovery was less than expected. In March, Saudi Arabia waged a big crude oil price war, international crude oil plummeted and the US stock market broke for the fifth time. A 7% drop in the S & P 500 triggered a circuit breaker and suspended trading for 15 minutes. The Dow also fell below the 20000 mark, erasing gains over the past three years. The NASDAQ fell 6.30%. The sharp drop in crude oil exacerbated the deep decline in octanol prices. Coupled with the demand worries caused by public health incidents, the global economy is facing huge downward pressure and panic spread. In the first quarter, the price of Shandong octanol was low, and the domestic octanol market hit the low level in the year at the end of March and the beginning of April.

【3】 The price of Shandong octanol rose 42.72% in the second quarter

In the second quarter of 2020, the market of octanol fluctuated and rose as a whole. The ex factory price rose from 5266.67 yuan / ton on April 1 to 7516.67 yuan / ton on June 30, up 2250.00 yuan / ton, or 42.72%. On the whole, the supply was less than demand, which was the main factor for the larger growth of octanol market..

In the second quarter of 2020, the spot supply of Shandong octanol market was in short supply, the downstream demand enthusiasm was strong, and the domestic octanol market price bottomed out and rebounded. In April, China’s epidemic prevention and control achieved a phased victory, the resumption of production and work was promoted rapidly, and the demand side was gradually released. Moreover, the international oil price bottomed out and rebounded in April, and the domestic chemical market as a whole was in a good situation. From May to June, the start-up load of downstream DOP increased to a medium high level, the domestic octanol market demand improved significantly, the market enthusiasm was high, and the domestic octanol market rose broadly. The current domestic octanol market price has rebounded and exceeded the average price at the beginning of the year. In the second quarter, Hualu Hengsheng octanol plant was overhauled, Shandong Jianlan plant was short stopped, the starting load was not high, and the domestic octanol market was short of spot supply.

【4】 In the third quarter, the price of Shandong octanol fluctuated and fell by 1.11%

In the third quarter of 2020, octanol market fell first and then rose. The ex factory price of octanol dropped from 7516.67 yuan / ton on July 1 to 6916.67 yuan / ton on August 28, down 600.00 yuan / ton, down 7.98%; then it rose to 7416.67 yuan / ton on September 18, up 500.00 yuan / ton, up 7.23%. Finally, the price of 7420 yuan / ton was maintained until the end of the quarter. Overall, octanol market in the third quarter fell by 1.11%.

In the third quarter of 2020, the overall operating rate of the downstream DOP plant remained at a high level, but the propylene raw material fluctuated horizontally in the same period, so it was difficult to form a support on the cost side, and the domestic octanol market was mainly frozen. Downstream DOP, DOTP cost pressure is larger, market prices follow octanol rise, the two form support each other. In the middle and late September, due to the centralized stocking of downstream factories before the National Day holiday, the atmosphere of market negotiation improved, and the focus of real order negotiation began to move up gradually.

【5】 The price of Shandong octanol rose 59.19% in the fourth quarter

In the fourth quarter of 2020, octanol market rose sharply. The ex factory price of octanol increased from 7433.33 yuan / ton on October 1 to 11833.33 yuan / ton on December 31, and the quoted price increased by 4400.00 yuan / ton, or 59.19%. Overall, the octanol market rose sharply in the fourth quarter and stabilized at the end of the quarter. In December 2020, the ex factory quotation of octanol increased from 9166.67 yuan / ton on December 1 to 11833.33 yuan / ton on December 31, with an increase of 2666.66 yuan / ton, the biggest monthly increase in 2020, with an increase of 29.09%.

In the fourth quarter of 2020, the domestic octanol market rose to the highest level in five years due to the centralized maintenance of overseas octanol plants, the positive driving force of n-butanol supply and the positive support of domestic DOP and DOTP demand. In November, the octanol units of LG and Hanhua Chemical Co., Ltd. were overhauled intensively, resulting in a sharp decline in domestic octanol imports. In December, the n-butanol unit in Ludwigshafen, Germany, was forced to shut down. Due to the impact of domestic environmental protection, the n-butanol plants in North China reduced the operating rate, indirectly driving the octanol market. In late November, the operation rate of downstream plasticizer plants bottomed out and rebounded, and the demand side in the field performed relatively well. Constrained by the dual pressure of demand side and cost side, the domestic octanol market price exceeded the 10000 yuan mark. However, due to the increase of environmental protection and safety inspection in December, domestic plasticizer factories slightly reduced the negative operation, and the digestion capacity of downstream high price raw materials decreased. The domestic octanol market fell slightly at the end of the year, but the overall price was still significantly higher than that at the beginning of the year.