Since early September, the price of acrylonitrile in the domestic market has fluctuated and risen. As of September 5th, the mainstream self raising price for tank discharge in East China ports has increased from 8200-8300 yuan/ton to around 8450-8550 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market has increased from 8050-8150 yuan/ton to 8300-8400 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton. The spot ex factory price represented by Lihua Yi in the Shandong market has also increased from 8000 yuan/ton to the current 8250 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.13%.
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Supply reduction
The direct factor for this round of price increase still comes from the supply side, with unplanned reductions in the East China region. Among them, Zhejiang Petrochemical experienced a malfunction and reduced its load at the end of August, and plans to overhaul a set of equipment for about 10 days in mid September; At the same time, a line of Sinochem Quanzhou will start parking in early August and may stop completely in mid September; Shanghai SECCO maintains a set of equipment in operation; Sinopec is maintaining the operation of 2-3 sets of facilities, with approximately 70% currently in operation.
According to statistics, as of September 4th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories has dropped to 72.85%, a decrease of -1.12% compared to the same period last week. The weekly output is about 81500 tons, a decrease of 1200 tons compared to the previous cycle. The total inventory is about 42800 tons, an increase of 0.120 tons from last week. Under low inventory conditions, there is a decrease in supply, which provides an opportunity for the propylene market to rise.
Stable demand:
The overall performance of the demand side in September is relatively stable. Although the production of acrylic fiber and ABS has temporarily decreased, other industries such as acrylamide have shown improvement, and the traditional peak season and pre holiday stocking expectations still have some support. As of September 5th, the load reduction or shutdown of the northern unit resulted in an ABS capacity utilization rate of 69.0%, which was -1.8% higher than last week; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises is 60.66%. Daqing Petrochemical is undergoing maintenance, and Jimeng Acrylic Fiber has reduced its load, which is nearly 15% lower than last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity is 54.97%, an increase of 1.36% compared to last week, and the units in Shandong and Henan have increased or restarted.
Cost support:
Recently, the high price of upstream propylene has led to a further increase in the production cost of acrylonitrile, which has also to some extent driven up the market. According to statistics, the average production cost of acrylonitrile this week was 9006 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of 1.35%. The average profit of acrylonitrile production during the same period was -685 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of -49 yuan/ton.
In the future forecast, the acrylonitrile market is expected to experience a preference atmosphere of high cost, low inventory, and reduced supply in the first half of September. However, the above positive support is limited and variable, and coupled with insufficient follow-up of long-term demand, the improvement of market supply and demand relationship is still difficult to sustain. In the second half of the month, the northern maintenance facilities will gradually resume, and at the same time, the demand for stocking up before the National Day holiday will also be activated. The news is mixed, and the market may once again fall into a stalemate.
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