As resources gradually become saturated, the volatility space of the acrylonitrile market narrows

After experiencing a roller coaster like market trend in January and February, the domestic acrylonitrile market has once again become flat since March, with prices fluctuating between 8000-9000 yuan/ton for most of the time. In May, the market amplitude further narrowed, hovering around 8500 yuan/ton with slight fluctuations.

In May, the capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry dropped to around 74%, which is basically the same as the capacity utilization rate during the price surge in January this year. However, due to changes in the total capacity base, the total capacity of acrylonitrile has increased from 4.399 million tons/year at the beginning of the year to 4.789 million tons/year currently (the 130000 ton and 260000 ton units of Yulong Petrochemical and Sinochem Quanzhou have been successfully put into operation in March and April), so the actual supply still maintains a growth trend. At the same time, due to the limited overall demand increment, the supply-demand relationship showed a weak trend in May, which also led to the low volatility of acrylonitrile prices even under cost pressure.
The overall supply of acrylonitrile is excessive, and the resources in various provinces are gradually saturated. Sinochem Quanzhou has filled the supply gap in Fujian. After Yulong Petrochemical is put into operation, the oversupply pattern in the Shandong market has further intensified. Among the four major consumer regions of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, and Jilin, Zhejiang and Jilin are still in a state of supply shortage and tight balance. However, in June, the 400000 ton Zhenhai Refining and Chemical and the 260000 ton Jilin Petrochemical capacity expansion units will also be put into operation, and the supply in each major consumer region will be fully utilized.
If the 130000 ton plant of INEOS (Tianjin) is successfully put into operation in the second half of the year, coupled with the input of surplus resources from surrounding provinces, the consumption in Hebei and Tianjin areas will also be covered, and the cross regional circulation of acrylonitrile will gradually decrease.
Looking at the whole year of 2025, the total new production capacity of acrylonitrile will reach 1.31 million tons per year. The main growth area of demand is still the downstream ABS industry, but the actual implementation of new production capacity may not meet expectations. Overall, the oversupply of acrylonitrile in 2025 is expected to intensify, and the supply variables caused by unplanned parking and load reduction will increase. In this context, the frequency of price fluctuations may increase, but the amplitude may further narrow.