Adequate supply and decreasing demand, leading to a sharp drop in the prices of high priced plasticizers

The price of plasticizers dropped significantly in March


Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 22, the price of DOP was 10370 yuan/ton, a significant decrease from March 1′s DOP price of 11780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.97%; On March 22nd, the price of DOTP was 10475 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 11.79% compared to the price of DOTP on March 1st, which was 11875 yuan/ton; On March 22nd, the DBP price was 9212.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.16% compared to the DBP price of 9612.50 yuan/ton on March 1st. In March, the prices of plasticizers DOP and DOTP decreased significantly, while the prices of DBP decreased slightly; The price of high priced plasticizers has significantly decreased, while the price of low priced plasticizers has slightly decreased, and the price difference of plasticizers has weakened.


During the Spring Festival, the production of plasticizer manufacturers decreased significantly, dropping to around 50%. However, with the end of the holiday, the production of plasticizer manufacturers quickly recovered to around 70%. In March, the production of plasticizer enterprises reached a high level, and the supply of plasticizers was sufficient; Domestic PVC manufacturers are operating at a high level, with poor downstream demand support for PVC. The PVC market has high inventory levels, and PVC is expected to continue to enter the market. In March, the PVC market supported the demand for plasticizers, but with the arrival of the PVC Spring Festival maintenance season, the demand for plasticizers is expected to decrease. Adequate supply and poor demand have led to a significant decrease in plasticizer profits.


The price of isooctanol dropped significantly in March


According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 22, the price of isooctanol was 11225 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 9.66% compared to the price of isooctanol on March 1, which was 12425 yuan/ton. In March, the price of isooctanol fell unilaterally, and in March, the equipment of isooctanol enterprises resumed operation. The supply of isooctanol increased, and imported isooctanol arrived at ports from February to March, increasing the pressure on the supply of isooctanol; In terms of demand, downstream plasticizer manufacturers are operating at high loads, and there is an upward trend in demand for isooctanol. In addition, the increase in exports of isooctanol provides certain positive support for isooctanol. The supply and demand of isooctanol have increased, and the isooctanol market may remain weak. With the slow decline of inventory in the isooctanol market, the expected decline in the future isooctanol market is expected to slow down.


The price of n-butanol fluctuated and fell in March


According to the analysis system of n-butanol commodity market by Business Society, as of March 22, the price of n-butanol was 7733.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.75% from the price of n-butanol on March 1, which was 8383.33 yuan/ton. During the Spring Festival, the overall downstream production of n-butanol has significantly declined, while n-butanol enterprises have maintained a relatively high level of production. The inventory of n-butanol has accumulated, and the import volume of n-butanol has increased. With the gradual return of downstream production of n-butanol, downstream stocking has increased, and the demand for n-butanol has rebounded. However, n-butanol inventory has remained high, coupled with the problem of n-butanol inventory accumulation in February, the n-butanol market is still oversupplied. With the continuous decline in the price of n-butanol, downstream customers have increased their willingness to stock on dips, and the trading volume of low-priced n-butanol has increased. At present, n-butanol manufacturers have a strong willingness to reduce inventory at low prices, and it is expected that n-butanol prices will operate weakly in the future.


Downstream PVC prices fluctuate and rise in an N-shaped pattern

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 22, the PVC quotation was 5654 yuan/ton, a slight fluctuation and increase of 0.82% compared to the PVC price of 5608 yuan/ton on March 1; The price of PVC has increased significantly by 1.58% compared to March 15th, with a price of 5566 yuan/ton. In terms of inventory, domestic PVC social inventory is high, PVC downstream production is low, order continuity is not strong, PVC manufacturers have a lot of inventory waiting to be stored, and PVC inventory continues to maintain high levels. In terms of operating rate, PVC manufacturers have a high operating rate, and spring maintenance has not yet started. Some enterprises are not actively engaged in maintenance, and the operating rate of PVC is higher than the same period last year. In terms of demand, the increase in domestic demand is limited, and PVC exports are exchanged for quantity at price. The overall demand for PVC in the market is weak, and inventory removal is slow. High priced PVC sources are still difficult to trade. In March, there is still support for PVC’s demand for plasticizers, but with the arrival of the PVC Spring Festival maintenance season, PVC manufacturers have lower expectations of starting production, leading to a decrease in PVC’s demand for plasticizers. The downward pressure on the demand side of plasticizers in the future is increasing.


Future expectations


Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that in terms of raw materials, the price of isooctanol has significantly decreased, the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen, the price of n-butanol has significantly decreased, and the cost of plasticizers has decreased. Subsequently, the expected decline in prices of isooctanol and n-butanol in the market has slowed down; In terms of supply, plasticizer manufacturers maintained a high level of production in March, with sufficient supply of plasticizers. With a significant drop in plasticizer prices, which is far greater than the decline in raw material products, plasticizer profits have decreased, and the enthusiasm of plasticizer manufacturers to start production has decreased. The expected operating load of plasticizer manufacturers in the future will decrease; In terms of demand, PVC has strong support for plasticizers in March, with PVC manufacturers operating at a high level and PVC social inventory at a high level. However, PVC demand growth is limited, and PVC inventory accumulation is severe; In April, PVC manufacturers had limited support for the demand for plasticizers. In addition, as April entered the traditional Spring Festival maintenance season, PVC manufacturers had increased expectations for maintenance, resulting in weak demand for plasticizers in the PVC market in the future.


In the future, the cost decline of plasticizers has slowed down, and supply and demand expectations have both decreased. However, plasticizer manufacturers are slow to destock, and the situation of plasticizer oversupply is difficult to change. Downstream customers have a strong resistance to high priced plasticizers, and it is expected that high priced plasticizer prices will fluctuate and fall in the future, while low priced plasticizer prices will mainly stabilize.