Monoammonium phosphate keeps rising. Is there enough stamina?

The price of monoammonium phosphate keeps rising. The mainstream quotation of 55% powdered monoammonium in Hubei area is 2050-2100 yuan (ton price, the same below). The actual acceptance of manufactured ammonium has risen to 2000-2050 yuan, while the low-end remittance of 1960 yuan in the earlier period has been heard that the low-price has not been reached recently. The actual acceptance of 58% powdered monoammonium in Hubei province is 2100 yuan in the earlier period, which has been raised to 2200 yuan in the near future; the pre-quotation of 55% powdered ammoni Fifty yuan, and no bargaining, the recent offer rose to 2050 yuan. Overall, the price of Monoammonium has been raised by 50-100 yuan recently, and the actual turnover has risen by 20-30 yuan.

Prices are likely to continue to rise in the near future, but are they really strong enough?


Firstly, enterprises are more centralized. Recently, the stocks of ammonium enterprises in Hubei, Sichuan and other places have been gradually depleted. The stocks of large factories with over 100,000 tons of pre-stock have bottomed out in the recent period. Some factories still have about 10,000 tons of orders to be issued after depletion of stocks. Recently, many large factories in Hubei, Sichuan, Anhui and other places have suspended orders. Most of the orders to be issued can be executed until the middle and early May, and the enterprises are relatively concentrated.

2. Shipment in Sichuan is blocked. Recently, we have to mention the road repairs in Guangyuan area of Sichuan Province. The road repairs make some transport vehicles need to bypass and increase the distance. It is planned to resume operation at the end of June, but the specific time is still uncertain. Road construction has led to obstruction of transportation. The areas affected include Henan, Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, Shaanxi and other areas in Northwest China. The freight of Monoammonium has also increased relatively. For example, the freight of Sichuan in Shaanxi in the earlier period is about 100-110 yuan, the freight of Sichuan in the recent period is 130-140 yuan, the freight of Sichuan in Shanxi in the earlier period is about 120 yuan, the freight of Sichuan in Shanxi in the recent period is about 165 yuan, and the freight of Shijiazhuang in Sichuan in Hebei Province is about 220 yuan from 180 yuan. If the arrival price remains unchanged, the freight rate will rise, and the factory price will fall in disguise, which will restrain the price increase of monoammonium.


3. The demand for high phosphorus fertilizer is still early. Recently, most of the compound fertilizer enterprises purchase raw materials for summer fertilizer, and think that the price of ammonium basically touches the bottom and the risk of purchasing is not high. Therefore, the enterprise has a high enthusiasm for purchasing monoammonium. The compound mast factories in Shandong and Lianghe have about 10,000 tons of replenishment. Enterprises in Northeast, Northwest and Southwest China have also made appropriate purchases. Especially some small and medium-sized compound fertilizer enterprises without raw material stock in the early period have stopped production after resumption of production Thousands of tons of Monoammonium were purchased. It is reported that the ammonium stock of raw materials in Henan compound mast plant can be used until the middle and early June. There is no new purchasing plan in the near future. In the later period, we will consider when to re-purchase according to the market situation. However, due to the early period of July and August from high phosphorus fertilizer, it is anticipated that in the short term, there will be no relatively concentrated plan for large quantities of ammonium purchasing by various compound fertilizer enterprises.

4. Fluctuation of raw material prices. The price of sulphur began to rise around the Qingming Festival. At that time, the price of granular sulphur in ports such as the Yangtze River rose again to more than 1000 yuan, but not for a long time. Because of the excessive rise and the rapid increase, the price of sulphur began to slow down in recent days. At present, the price of granular sulphur in Yangtze River Port and Fangcheng Port is around 1100 yuan. The price of liquid ammonia has also fallen after the rise, and has recently risen again, mainly due to the improvement of factory goods and the reduction of inventory. At present, the mainstream acceptance of liquid ammonia in Hubei has risen again to more than 3000 yuan, near 3030-3100 yuan. The price of sulphuric acid varies from region to region. For example, the production and transportation of sulphuric acid in Henan and other places are blocked due to environmental protection and safety inspection. The price has already risen and has been in the recent consolidation stage. Phosphorus ore prices have fallen by about 50 yuan or more due to increased supply.

Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)

In summary, due to the low inventory and some pending implementation of the plant, the price of ammonium may continue to rise, but due to insufficient demand and long distance from high phosphorus fertilizer, there is no chance of a substantial increase in the short term.