The recent market trend of epoxy propane has been mainly stable. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of February 5th, the average price of epoxy propane for enterprises was 9237.50 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged compared to the beginning of the month and increased by 0.96% compared to the same period last year.

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market prices have recently stopped falling and risen, providing general support for the epoxy propane market.

Supply and demand side: At the beginning of the month, the supply side was mainly stable, and downstream demand followed up moderately. Factory shipments were still acceptable, and inventory pressure was controllable. As terminals gradually withdrew from the market, downstream new orders were average, and the pace of purchasing epoxy propane slowed down. The market was operating weakly. On February 5th, the mainstream quotation in the Shandong epoxy propane market was around 8800 yuan/ton.

Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that currently, the price of raw material propylene is rising, and the cost support is still acceptable. Downstream follow-up is average, and it is expected that in the short term, the epoxy propane market may wait and see, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, sulfur prices in East China have slightly increased this week. On February 4th, sulfur prices were at 940.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.71% compared to 933.33 yuan/ton on January 29th, and a decrease of 8.44% compared to the beginning of the month.

This week, the sulfur market has been consolidating and running. During the week, some refineries in Shandong region reduced production, resulting in a decrease in market supply of goods. Downstream main factories were able to prepare goods before the holiday, and manufacturers shipped smoothly. Refineries raised their prices slightly based on their own shipment situation. In terms of ports, the replenishment atmosphere of terminals and traders gradually weakened, weakening support for the spot market, and sulfur market prices remained stable with little movement. As of the 4th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong region is around 930-970 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is between 920-1000 yuan/ton.

Downstream market trends in the industrial chain

The downstream sulfuric acid market is operating weakly and steadily. On February 4th, the average domestic sulfuric acid price was 187.50 yuan/ton, which is% the same as the price of 187.50 yuan/ton on January 29th. On site enterprises have stable production, sufficient market supply, and insufficient downstream demand. They follow up on stocking according to demand, while acid companies have average shipments. The mentality of manufacturers is deadlocked, and the short-term sulfuric acid market is wait-and-see.

The downstream ammonium phosphate market is weak and declining. On February 4th, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate was 3133.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.19% compared to the price of 3203.33 yuan/ton on January 29th. The supply of monoammonium phosphate in the market has contracted, but downstream demand has remained weak, with weak follow-up on new orders, insufficient market transactions, and significant sales pressure from manufacturers. As a result, the price of monoammonium continues to decline.

Future Market Forecast

According to sulfur analysts from Business Society, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches and the market transaction atmosphere is mild, sulfur companies are actively shipping, while downstream stocking enthusiasm is average. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will remain stable and operate on a wait-and-see basis, and specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.

The melamine market has remained stable this week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of February 2nd, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7450.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from Monday (January 29th).

Cost side: According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market in Shengyi Society, the reference price of urea on February 1st was 2431.67, a decrease of 2.15% compared to January 1st (2485.00). Recently, the market price of raw material urea has risen, and the cost is still supported by the melamine market.

Supply and demand side: Recently, some enterprises have recovered their equipment, and the industry’s capacity utilization rate has increased. As downstream factories gradually relax, the demand side has slowed down, and there are sufficient orders waiting to be issued by enterprises. The focus of negotiations in the melamine market has remained stable, with some enterprises offering discounts and receiving orders.

Melamine analysts from Business Society believe that the current cost impact is limited, the industry is operating at a high level, and companies are mainly executing advance orders in an orderly manner. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may stabilize and operate, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of February 2, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 8850 yuan/ton. Compared with January 28 (reference price of n-butanol was 8700 yuan/ton), the price increased by 150 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.72%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that this week (1.29-2.2), the overall market for n-butanol in Shandong, China, showed a steady upward trend. During the week, downstream users of n-butanol were generally in a stocking cycle, with good shipments in the n-butanol market and active buying atmosphere on the market. The boost from the demand side supported the stable and strong operation of the n-butanol market, and the overall transaction price of n-butanol was approaching a high level. As of February 2nd, the domestic market price of n-butanol in Shandong region is around 8800-8900 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 100-200 yuan/ton.

Future analysis

At present, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is mild, and downstream demand is stocking up. The utilization rate of n-butanol production capacity has slightly increased during the week, and the overall supply and demand transmission in the market is good. The n-butanol data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mostly operate steadily with a strong bias, and specific trends still need to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell in January

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 31st, the price of DOP was 11770 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.66% compared to the price of 12091.67 yuan/ton on January 1st. The price of raw material isooctanol was discounted for sales, and the cost of plasticizer DOP decreased. In January, DOP prices fluctuated and fell.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell in January

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 31st, the quotation for isooctanol was 12350 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.63% compared to the quotation for isooctanol on January 1st, which was 12950 yuan/ton. In December, Qilu Petrochemical’s isooctanol equipment was shut down due to an accident, and the price of isooctanol skyrocketed. At the beginning of the month, the price of isooctanol remained high, and the supply of isooctanol exceeded the demand. Isooctanol manufacturers offered discounts to sell, causing the price of isooctanol to fluctuate and fall; As the Spring Festival approaches, plasticizer manufacturers are stocking up, the price of isooctanol has stopped falling, raw material support has weakened, and DOP prices have fallen. With isooctanol stopping its decline, DOP has some upward support.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that in January, the raw material isooctanol fluctuated and fell, and the cost support for plasticizer DOP was insufficient, increasing the downward pressure on DOP. In the future, as the Spring Festival approaches and inventory increases, coupled with the rebound in raw material prices, it is expected that DOP prices will slightly increase in the future.

Recently (1.26-1.31), the market for trichloromethane has risen. According to data from Business Society, as of January 31st, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2300 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.73% from 2283 yuan/ton on January 26th. The price of raw material methanol has fluctuated lower, the price range of liquid chlorine has been consolidated, and the cost support for dichloromethane is weak; The downstream refrigerant market is for winter storage and stocking, and phased replenishment provides certain support for trichloromethane. In addition, the overall low inventory of manufacturers has led to a slight increase in the price of trichloromethane. As of January 31, the mainstream factory price of trichloromethane in Shandong region is around 2250-2350 yuan/ton. But as the Spring Festival approaches and winter storage and stocking gradually end, the demand for trichloromethane is gradually weakening.

Recently (1.25-1.31), the domestic supply of methane chlorides has slightly increased.

Recently (1.26-1.31), the price of raw material methanol has slightly decreased, and the price of liquid chlorine has stabilized at a low level. The cost support for trichloromethane is weak. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 31st, the spot price of methanol was 2580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.34% from 2615 yuan/ton on the 25th. As of January 31st, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region is around 250 yuan/ton, which is lower than the previous price.

During the mid to low season, the winter storage of terminal refrigerants has been partially stocked, which has strengthened the demand for trichloromethane. At the end of the month, the phased stocking ended, and the demand support for trichloromethane was weak.

Analysts from Business Society’s methane chloride data believe that cost and demand support is weak, but there is not much pressure on corporate inventory. It is expected that the trichloromethane market will narrow before the holiday.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8237 yuan/ton on January 1, and the average price on January 30 was 8257 yuan/ton, with a 0.24% increase in quotation during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 9082 yuan/ton on January 1st, and the average price on January 30th was 9200 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.29% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8500 yuan/ton on January 1st, and the average price on January 30th was 8437 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.74% during the period.

In January, polyethylene generally showed a decline followed by an increase, with LDPE showing a significant increase, while HDPE prices remained stable after mid month. After New Year’s Day, petrochemical enterprises have accumulated inventory, and supply side pressure still exists, suppressing the narrow fluctuation and decline of the polyethylene market. After mid month, the futures market has strengthened, driving a slight increase in polyethylene spot prices. Positive factors include a rebound in crude oil prices, expectations for a domestic interest rate cut, and the approaching Spring Festival with demand for restocking in the market, which has led to a narrow upward trend in the polyethylene market.

After the decline at the beginning of the month, polyethylene futures have shown a strong trend, which is beneficial for the spot market. On January 30th, the opening price of the polyethylene l2405 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 8314 yuan, and the closing price was 8264 yuan, a decrease of 24 yuan. The highest price was 8330 yuan, and the lowest was 8261 yuan, a decrease of 0.29%.

The pressure on polyethylene supply is still on, and as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream factories are gradually taking holidays, resulting in weaker demand; It is expected that polyethylene will undergo a narrow adjustment in operation before the Spring Festival, with limited upward space.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 29th, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7475.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the price on January 1st.

The market price of melamine remained stable and fluctuated in January. In the first half of the month, the price of raw material urea decreased, cost support weakened, and the industry’s capacity utilization rate was around 70%. Downstream buying enthusiasm slowed down, with rigid demand mainly following up. The market atmosphere was flat, and some companies lowered prices to attract orders. In the second half of the month, the cost impact was average, with some companies shutting down their equipment for maintenance. As downstream stocking gradually followed up, manufacturers still received orders, and dealers flexibly quoted prices based on their own situation. Some companies raised prices, and towards the end of the month, the market remained stable and wait-and-see, with a general market atmosphere.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference price of urea on January 26th was 2416.67, a decrease of 2.75% compared to January 1st (2485.00).

Melamine analysts from Business Society believe that the current fundamental impact is limited, and companies mainly execute advance orders. It is expected that the melamine market will remain stable in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

TDI, also known as toluene diisocyanate, is a colorless, transparent or slightly yellow liquid that is an organic compound with a strong irritant gas. TDI is one of the most important diisocyanate raw materials for polyurethane resin. 70% of TDI is used to prepare polyurethane soft foam and its products, while the rest is used in coatings, sealants, elastomers, etc.

2023 TDI price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the TDI market experienced a wide range of fluctuations in 2023, with a significant decline in price trends. At the beginning of the year, the average TDI market price was 18800.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year, the average price was 16800.00 yuan/ton. Within the year, the price decreased by 2000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.64%. The highest point of the annual price was 20966.67 yuan/ton in early February, and the lowest point was 16000.00 yuan/ton in early June, with a maximum amplitude of 23.69% within the year.

2023 TDI Market Review

The price trend of TDI in 2023 is fluctuating and falling, which can be roughly divided into three stages:

From January to March, TDI prices first rose and then fell. As January approaches the Spring Festival holiday, downstream stocking demand increases, and TDI prices rise. After the year, downstream terminal production resumes, sponge prices rise, and demand is positive for the TDI market. In addition, the decrease in overseas TDI market production capacity leads to an increase in export demand. Supported by multiple positive factors, TDI prices have risen strongly to the highest level of prices this year; Starting from mid to late February, the enthusiasm for terminal procurement has weakened, downstream demand has been weak, market inquiries have been sluggish, suppliers have been reluctant to raise prices, and TDI prices have fluctuated downward.

From April to May, the price trend once again showed a trend of first rising and then falling. The supply of goods in the TDI market is filling slowly, and prices are constantly rising. In addition, the news of the restart of the Gansu Yinguang device and the expected start of the Fujian Wanhua device have failed, exacerbating the tight spot situation. Suppliers have released news of support for the market, and the trade market follows the guidance of the news. TDI offers continue to rise; Afterwards, the market saw a bearish atmosphere and the TDI price plummeted.

From June to December, the TDI market showed an M-shaped oscillation. At this stage, TDI prices maintain a range of fluctuations, and there is a clear supply-demand game on the market. Supplier’s device load reduction, shutdown and other messages are released, and TDI quotation is raised; The maintenance equipment has been restarted, the supply of goods has entered the market, and the demand side has gradually taken the lead, resulting in a decrease in TDI prices; Afterwards, market trading increased, and suppliers supported the market and rose; As demand weakens and the terminal market enters the off-season, trading is weak, and TDI prices are simultaneously decreasing.

Fundamental analysis

Supply side:

In terms of supply, domestic production capacity continued to increase from 2018 to 2022, with a synchronous increase in production. In 2022, production weakened compared to the previous year. By 2023, Gansu Yinguang, which had been parked for a long time, resumed operation, and TDI supply increased again, with an operating capacity of 1.48 million tons.

From the global distribution of TDI production capacity, China has the largest TDI production capacity, followed by Europe and the Americas. High production capacity also means that China’s TDI exports account for a relatively large proportion.

Demand side:

From the comparison chart of TDI production and apparent consumption from 2018 to 2023, it can be seen that the domestic TDI apparent consumption is much lower than the annual production, and the TDI external dependence is relatively low. In 2023, TDI apparent consumption increased by 8.3% year-on-year, while self-sufficiency rate decreased by 0.32% compared to the previous year.

Import and export:

China is a net exporter of TDI. In recent years, China’s TDI production has steadily increased, and its export volume is also further increasing. From the TDI import and export data from 2017 to 2023, it can be seen that China’s TDI export volume far exceeds its import volume, and the import volume is showing a downward trend. In 2023, China exported a total of 250500 tons of TDI products, a year-on-year decrease of 24.91%. Exports continued to decline compared to previous years, which is closely related to the weak demand in recent years.

Future market forecast

In summary, the expected production capacity of TDI in 2024 may increase, and the demand side has not changed much compared to this year. The maintenance and restart of TDI equipment by suppliers in 2024 may be the main factors affecting price changes. Based on the supply and demand game on the market, it is expected that the TDI market prices will continue to fluctuate weakly in 2024.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of toluene has recently risen due to cost support (1.5-1.26). On January 26th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6960 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.19% from 6680 yuan/ton on January 26th.

International crude oil prices fluctuate higher, with support from toluene cost and external prices

Recently (1.5-1.26), international crude oil prices have risen due to factors such as the Red Sea situation, which has provided short-term support for the cost of toluene. As of January 26th, WTI03 contract settlement is $77.36 per barrel; Brent 04 contract settlement is $81.96 per barrel. With a slight rebound in crude oil prices, the price of toluene in Asia has rebounded, providing some support for the domestic market. As of January 26, February, the CFR China LC90 day toluene price was between 860-862 US dollars/ton.

Starting production of xylene temporarily stabilizes toluene and obtains necessary support

The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 80%. A 750000 ton unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical has restarted, but some units are still undergoing maintenance. The spot supply is normal. This week, the international crude oil price trend has fluctuated, and the external PX price has not changed much. As of the 26th, the closing price in Asia is 1000-1002 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1041-1043 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high. Overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region is nearly 80%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region is normal, and the price range of crude oil has fluctuated recently. The domestic xylene market price trend is temporarily stable.

Small fluctuations in the domestic mixed blending market, weak support for toluene demand

Since the fourth quarter, the domestic mixed blending market has entered a low season, with weak downstream inquiries and weak demand for toluene mixed blending. As of late January, the operating rate of refinery facilities nationwide was around 7.3%.

Continuous increase in toluene port inventory and increased supply pressure

During the off-season of demand, domestic toluene port inventories have significantly increased. As of January 26th, toluene inventories in East China were 90000 tons and in South China were 14000 tons, a significant increase from 81000 tons in early January. This has increased the pressure on toluene supply. The domestic production of toluene continued to increase compared to the beginning of the month, and as of late January, the production rate was around 740%.

Market forecast: Currently, international crude oil prices are fluctuating widely, with support for the cost of toluene; Secondly, downstream demand support during the off-season is relatively weak; Finally, the inventory of toluene at the port increased and there was a slight increase in production, but the pressure on the supply side of toluene remains. With weak supply and demand support and cost support, it is expected that the toluene market will experience narrow fluctuations and consolidation in the later period.