1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices first fell and then fluctuated at a low level in November. As of the end of the month, the copper price at the beginning of the month was 76515 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the copper price fell to 73885 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 3.44% and a year-on-year increase of 7.61%.

According to the Business Society’s current chart, copper spot prices in November were mostly higher than futures prices, with the main contract being the expected price two months later.

According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory fluctuated narrowly in November. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 269475 tons, a decrease of 0.7% from the beginning of the month.

Macroscopically, on November 8th, the Federal Reserve adjusted the target range for the federal funds rate from 4.75% to 5.0% to a more relaxed range of 4.5% to 4.75%, a decrease of 25 basis points. The dust of the US leadership transition has settled, and Trump will take over. PCE increased by 2.1% year-on-year in September, slightly higher than the target, and there is no sign of progress in underlying inflation recently. In October, the US CPI increased by 0.2% month on month and 2.6% year-on-year, reaching a three-month high; The core CPI increased by 0.3% month on month and 3.3% year-on-year, which is higher than the 2% target set by the Federal Reserve.

Supply side: Entering the off-season of consumption in November, it is expected that domestic copper supply will continue to decline slightly month on month in the future. In terms of imports, although imported goods have gradually arrived, making spot supply slightly loose, domestic copper has received less.

Downstream: As the end of the year approaches, there is a certain expectation for downstream consumption to make a strong push. The decline in copper prices has significantly stimulated downstream consumption. However, the operating rate of recycled copper rods has decreased month on month, indicating that downstream demand has shifted to primary demand. At the same time, some copper rod enterprises engage in export grabbing behavior, but may overdraw future demand.

Import: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of unprocessed copper and its products in China in October was 506000 tons, an increase of 5.6% from 479000 tons in September and 1.1% from the same period last year. In October, the import of refined copper was 386000 tons, an increase of 38000 tons compared to the previous month. The cumulative import from January to October was 3.234 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%.

According to the annual price comparison chart of Shengyi Society, in the past five years, copper prices have mostly risen in December.

Based on the above situation, the customs announced on the 15th that they would cancel the export tax rebate for copper materials, involving an export volume of about 500000 tons. The export of copper materials from January to September this year was 610000 tons, an increase of 19.6% year-on-year, which may indicate that there has been some rush to export. There will still be rush to export behavior this week, but the short-term decrease in exports in December may have a more significant impact. It is expected that there will still be an increase in imports in November and December compared to the previous month. In addition, large-scale refineries are expected to resume production in December due to accidents, and there is an expectation of increased supply in the later period. However, consumption is relatively weak, with a copper production of 1.967 million tons in October, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, and a cumulative production of 19.27 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. In years with weaker consumption, the impact of the off-season is more significant. In addition, traders and copper factories have stated that the demand for long-term orders will be weak next year, and downstream acceptance of long-term orders is not high due to the expansion of losses this year. It is expected that copper prices will mainly fluctuate weakly in December.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke has slightly increased this week. As of November 24th, the price of locally refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 1523.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.66% from 1513.25 yuan/ton on November 28th.

Cost wise: Crude oil prices have risen this week, and OPEC’s production reduction plan of 2.2 million barrels per day has been extended until the end of December, which is good news for international oil prices.

Supply side: The shipment of refined petroleum coke this week is still acceptable, but the supply of petroleum coke with medium and low sulfur indicators is relatively tight, and the price has slightly increased. The price of high sulfur petroleum coke has fluctuated, and the market trading is average. A small amount of imported petroleum coke arrived at the port this week, causing inventory to fall. Low sulfur petroleum coke spot is limited, and market inquiries have increased.

On the demand side: Currently, there is little change in the overall supply of metallic silicon in China, and most of the silicon industry in Xinjiang is mainly based on pre orders, with little change in spot supply. Due to the overall low operating rate in Yunnan and Sichuan regions, although there are relatively few new spot orders and overall transaction orders, inventory pressure is not high, and the overall shipping mentality is normal. The market has stable quotes in multiple dimensions.

Recently, the market for medium sulfur calcined coke has remained stable, with limited downstream demand. Currently, most companies are starting to pre sell orders for next month, and downstream customers are mainly observing and waiting.

The early rise in aluminum prices was mainly due to the upward shift of the cost center, which drove the rise of the industrial chain market. In particular, the price of raw material alumina has risen significantly, and the near end fundamentals are expected to be good, resulting in strong prices and causing aluminum prices to skyrocket. At present, the main reason for the decline in aluminum prices is due to fundamental considerations of supply and demand. After rising, prices have begun to make slight corrections.

Market forecast: Currently, downstream negative electrode and carbon enterprises are facing an increase in inquiries, urgent procurement needs, and decent trading in the local petroleum coke market. In addition, due to the tight inventory of low sulfur petroleum coke, it is expected that the price of petroleum coke may rise slightly in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 18th to 22nd, MTBE prices rose from 5412 yuan/ton to 5460 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.88% during the period, a month on month decrease of 1.27%, and a year-on-year decrease of 16.80%. The domestic MTBE market is mainly experiencing sporadic adjustments, with relatively frequent price fluctuations but limited space. The demand for gasoline terminals is still acceptable, and industry players have a certain degree of enthusiasm for purchasing related gasoline raw materials. MTBE manufacturers often sell at high prices. After the price rose to a high level, the cautious mentality of operators increased, and the market situation was mainly consolidated.

In terms of cost and crude oil, the rise in international oil prices is mainly due to the temporary failure of some oil fields in Norway, which led to a temporary decrease in production, and the increased instability of the Russia Ukraine situation. As of November 21st, the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $74.23 per barrel, an increase of $1.42 or 1.9%.

From the perspective of demand and downstream gasoline terminal demand, the temperature in northern regions continues to decline, and the private car travel rate of the public increases. Retail gas station shipments have performed well, and most gas station merchants maintain medium to high levels of inventory for procurement and sales. With some shipping orders awaiting delivery, there is some support on the demand side. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by favorable factors.

Supply side: There is a construction plan in place, and it is expected that the supply of resources will increase. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.

As of the close on November 21st, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $1/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $709.49-711.49/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $1.25/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $813.24-813.74/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $4.82/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $764.42-764.78/ton (215.84-215.94 cents/gallon).

The future forecast still needs to wait and see the demand follow-up situation and the start time of some manufacturers. If there is no substantial positive follow-up, MTBE analysts from Shengyi Society believe that there may be a narrow downward adjustment in the domestic MTBE market in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, starting from November 18th, negative sentiment has suppressed the palm oil spot market, causing a fluctuating decline with an overall increase of over 3%. On November 18th, the average market price of palm oil was 9664 yuan/ton, and on November 21st, the average market price of palm oil was 9764 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.42% in price.

Negative pressure suppresses the downward trend of domestic palm oil market

On November 18th, the palm oil market weakened and prices continued to decline. This round of palm oil decline is mainly due to the outflow of bullish Malaysian palm oil futures in the external market, resulting in a decline in the market. The domestic palm oil futures market followed suit and the spot market weakened. The average price of palm oil in the domestic market has fallen below 10000 yuan, with a drop of nearly 4% in this round.

Li Bing, a palm oil analyst at Shengyi Society, believes that at the end of November, with the support of rigid demand for oil terminals, the palm oil market will continue to stabilize and stop falling in the future.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on November 20th, the reference price for the domestic silicon metal # 441 market was 12120 yuan/ton, which remained stable compared to November 8th. Compared to November 1st (silicon metal # 441 market price of 12070 yuan/ton), the price increased by 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.41%; Compared with October 1st (market price of 11960 yuan/ton for silicon metal # 441), the price has increased by 160 yuan/ton, a 1.34% increase.

From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in the recent period (11.15-11.20), the overall stable operation of the domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 has been the main trend. However, due to the recent opening price drop of nearly 800 yuan compared to the beginning of the month for the main futures contracts, the actual trading center of some other grades of silicon metal in the spot market has slightly weakened. As of November 20th, the domestic market price reference for metallic silicon 441 # is around 11900-12400 yuan/ton.

Fundamental situation

In terms of construction: Currently, the overall construction rate of domestic silicon metal remains high in the north and low in the south, and the overall construction rate of silicon enterprises in the north remains high. According to incomplete statistics, the overall operating rate in Xinjiang remains stable at around 86% -88%, and the operating rate is still relatively high. The construction rate in the Sichuan Yunnan region is relatively low, with the silicon industry operating at around 48% -49%, maintaining a relatively low level of construction. The operating rate of silicon industry in Sichuan region is around 33% -34%, with a low overall operating rate. Most silicon companies in Sichuan have reduced production or shut down their furnaces. It is heard that some silicon companies still plan to shut down their furnaces later this month, and the operating rate has remained low.

In terms of supply: Currently, there is little change in the overall supply of metallic silicon in China, and most of the silicon in Xinjiang has been pre ordered, with little change in spot supply. Due to the overall low operating rate in Yunnan and Sichuan regions, although there are relatively few new spot orders and overall transaction orders, inventory pressure is not high, and the overall shipping mentality is normal. The market has stable quotes in multiple dimensions.

In terms of demand: Currently, the downstream demand for metallic silicon is mostly urgent procurement, with replenishment mainly based on quantity, and there is little overall change in the demand side.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the domestic silicon metal market is quiet and mild. With the overall expectation of on-site construction continuing to decline, the pressure on the silicon metal supply side is controllable. Although the transmission performance between supply and demand is still average, it will be able to maintain weak stability. The silicon metal data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic silicon metal market will mainly operate with large stability and small fluctuations, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be monitored.

Insufficient demand has indeed led to downward pressure on the melamine market. The following is a detailed analysis of this phenomenon:

1、 Market situation

Price decline: Affected by sluggish demand, the market price of melamine continues to decline. For example, in the first half of 2024, the average price of melamine in the domestic market was about 6587 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 5.98%. As of November 19th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6462.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.36% compared to the beginning of this month (6687.50 yuan/ton).

Oversupply: Despite sluggish demand, the production capacity of melamine is constantly increasing. The gradual release of new production capacity by enterprises has led to a significant increase in market supply. At the same time, some melamine plants that were previously shut down due to maintenance have resumed production, further exacerbating the supply pressure on the market.

Inventory backlog: With the increase in supply and insufficient demand, some companies’ inventory begins to accumulate. This not only increases the operating costs of the enterprise, but may also have adverse effects on subsequent production and sales.

2、 Cause analysis

Upstream price decline: The domestic urea market continues to operate steadily with a weak trend, with some manufacturers experiencing a slight decrease in quotes, and the overall market transaction center shifting downwards. The early parking devices have resumed production one after another, and the market supply of goods continues to be loose. However, there is still no significant improvement in demand. Most enterprises have high inventory fluctuations, and price reductions are the main way to attract orders. Currently, the market lacks strong positive support. As of November 19th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1983.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of -9.62% compared to the beginning of this month (2195.00 yuan/ton).

Insufficient downstream demand: Downstream industries associated with melamine, such as sheet metal and impregnation, have seen a decrease in operating load, resulting in an overall shortage of demand for melamine. The market demand of these downstream industries is an important support for the melamine market, but their insufficient production directly weakens the market demand.

The real estate industry is sluggish: The real estate industry is one of the important application areas of melamine. However, in recent years, the real estate industry has remained sluggish, with new construction areas and development investments continuing to decline, resulting in a significant decrease in demand for melamine.

3、 Future prospects

Adjustment of supply and demand relationship: With the gradual release of new production capacity and the gradual recovery of downstream demand, the supply and demand relationship of the melamine market is expected to be adjusted in the future. However, in the short term, the market may still face pressure from oversupply.

Low price operation: Affected by the increase in supply and weak demand, the market price of melamine is expected to continue to operate at a low level. The specific price trend still needs to be judged based on market dynamics and changes in supply and demand relationships.

In summary, insufficient demand is the main reason for the downward pressure on the melamine market. In the future, with the adjustment of market supply and demand and the low operation of prices, enterprises need to adopt active response strategies to cope with market challenges.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, since November 11th, long and short positions have been intertwined, and the palm oil spot market has fluctuated and fallen, with an overall decline of nearly 3%. On November 11th, the average market price of palm oil was 10318 yuan/ton, and on November 19th, the average market price of palm oil was 10020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.89% in price.

Long Short Game: Domestic Palm Oil Market oscillates and falls

Since November 11th, the palm oil market has fluctuated with ups and downs, and the overall price has fluctuated downward. This round of palm oil decline is mainly due to Malaysia’s palm oil production being in a production reduction cycle, exports declining, and a long short game. After the rise in the external palm oil futures market, there was a decline, and the domestic palm oil futures market rebounded weakly. The spot market did not rise as much as it fell, with weak declines being the main trend. As of November 19th, the average price of palm oil in the domestic market has fallen to 10020 yuan/ton, a decrease of over 300 yuan/ton, and a drop of over 2% in this round.

Li Bing, a palm oil analyst at Shengyi Society, believes that at the end of November, Malaysia’s palm oil was in a production reduction cycle in the external market, and the domestic demand for oil was peak. It is expected that the palm oil market will rise in the future.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province fell this week (11.11-11.15), with an average market price of 17350 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 17200 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.86%.

This week’s market analysis

The price of magnesium ingots continued its downward trend this week, and after a weak operation, the price continued to adjust downwards. The manufacturer has accumulated inventory, sufficient supply, and weak terminal demand. The price of magnesium ingots is under pressure and has loosened downward. Downstream maintains essential procurement, with low transaction volume.

Upstream aspect

The price of Fugu 75 silicon iron remained unchanged from last week. The overall operation of the ferrosilicon market is weak and stable, with average market demand and downstream on-demand procurement, resulting in light actual transactions. The futures market is weak and volatile, and factory quotes have slightly loosened. It is expected that 75% silicon iron will be weak in the short term.

Fugu Blue Charcoal prices are running steadily. The supply of coal in Shaanxi region is relatively tight, with prices rising narrowly. The overall price of blue charcoal is relatively stable, but the operating rate of blue charcoal manufacturers has declined, with only a few companies lowering the prices of small and medium-sized materials and coke. The slight increase in raw material prices provides some cost support for blue charcoal. Considering the slight fluctuations in downstream prices, it is expected that the price of blue charcoal will remain relatively stable in the short term.

comprehensive analysis

The current factory production reduction is not yet significant, and there is a lack of obvious favorable factors to support it. It is expected that the short-term magnesium market will still be difficult to stop falling. Next week, the magnesium market may continue its weak consolidation trend, and we will observe the situation of factory production reduction and demand follow-up.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8596 yuan/ton on November 11th, and the average price was 8650 yuan/ton on November 15th, with a price increase of 0.62% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 10733 yuan/ton on November 11th, and the average price was 10750 yuan/ton on November 14th, with a price increase of 0.16% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of HDPE (2426H) was 8500 yuan/ton on November 11th, and the average price was 8500 yuan/ton on November 15th, during which the quotation was temporarily stable.

There are many polyethylene parking inspections and a decrease in petrochemical inventory, which puts great pressure on inventory supply and supports the polyethylene market. According to data statistics, as of November 14th, the plastic two barrel oil inventory was 670000 tons, a decrease of 1.47% month on month and 0.74% year-on-year. The demand for greenhouse film has entered the final stage, downstream procurement efforts have decreased, and there is insufficient follow-up on new orders; Macro positive expectations have increased, and the market sentiment is relatively strong, boosting the plastic market.

On November 15th, the Dalian Commodity Exchange polyethylene L2501 contract opened at 8322 yuan and closed at 8289 yuan, up 19 yuan, with a high of 8396 yuan and a low of 8270 yuan, up 0.23%. The recent strong trend of polyethylene futures has boosted the spot market.

The peak season for agricultural film is coming to an end, and the support for polyethylene is weakening. It is expected that the upward space for polyethylene will be limited.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 14th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China is 6750 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the reference average price of 6750 yuan/ton on November 8th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 14th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China is 7000 yuan/ton, which is 0.48% higher than the reference average price of 6966 yuan/ton on November 8th.

2、 Market analysis

Market aspect

This week, the price of hot process phosphoric acid remained stable, while the price of wet process phosphoric acid slightly increased. As of November 14th, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6600-7000 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6800-7000 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6950-7050 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market has weakened and fallen, and the focus of market transactions has shifted downwards. At present, the market supply is stable, and downstream customers are cautious in purchasing goods and prioritize demand. It is expected that domestic yellow phosphorus prices will stabilize in the short term.

Raw material phosphate rock market. This week, the phosphate ore market has remained stable, mainly operating at a high level. At present, local supply is tight and supply and demand are relatively balanced. It is expected that domestic phosphate rock prices will remain stable in the short term.

Supply and demand side

This month, the supply and demand of the phosphoric acid market are balanced, and the market transaction atmosphere is quiet. At present, the spot supply in the market is still acceptable, downstream demand is stable, and there is a small amount of replenishment. There is currently no significant change in the supply and demand side.

3、 Future forecast

The phosphate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the phosphate market has been operating in a narrow range recently. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been lowered, and cost support has weakened. Market trading is limited, and there are not many new transactions. Short term phosphoric acid market prices are expected to remain stagnant and operate steadily.