According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic spandex market has maintained a slight downward trend since April. As of April 22, the price of 40D spandex was 30000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.23% compared to the beginning of the month. At present, some spandex manufacturers have reduced production, but there are also some manufacturers that have increased production to full load operation, and the overall operating rate remains stable. The factory is actively shipping, but downstream demand is maintained, resulting in inventory pressure for some spandex manufacturers.

The cost support effect is still acceptable, and the main material PTMEG market is undergoing narrow consolidation. Under the pressure of factory losses, there is relatively limited room for profit margins, and negotiations are deadlocked. The domestic spandex industry has negotiated and evaluated a price of 15500-16000 yuan/ton for 1800 molecular weight PTMEG dispersion. The pure MDI market fell first and then rose, with spot prices in the East China region ranging from 18800 to 19000 yuan/ton. Spot prices are tight, and traders are mainly hesitant to sell.

At present, the performance of terminal orders is average, and the operating rate of the weaving industry in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is stable at around 73%. Factories are taking appropriate purchases and still have a wait-and-see attitude towards spandex. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is weak, with a stable to weak trading focus. Considering the gradual shift towards the off-season, as well as the May Day holiday, downstream production reduction and holiday expectations, as well as poor new orders, demand expectations will be weak.

Business Society analysts believe that in the future, spandex factories are expected to reduce production, but currently there is still sufficient supply of goods, making it difficult to provide favorable support for the spandex market. In a long-term loss making state, manufacturers adhere to a high intention to offer, and it is expected that the short-term market price of spandex will remain stable.

The price of ethylene glycol began to loosen in April

The price of ethylene glycol was weak in April. According to data from Business Society, as of April 19th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.52% compared to the average price of 4513.33 yuan/ton in the East China market on April 1st. The prices for each region are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 4400-4700 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4400 yuan/ton, while the mainstream manufacturers in Central China have a spot price range of 4350 yuan/ton for external execution; The mainstream manufacturers in North China offer a spot price of 4500 yuan/ton for external transactions.

In April, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the port increased first and then decreased

In April, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the port began to shift from the previous state of destocking to platform fluctuations. The current absolute value of inventory is in the historical middle zone. As of April 18, 2024, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 812700 tons, an increase of 40300 tons compared to the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China on April 3, 772400 tons; Compared to the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China on April 11th, which was 863400 tons, a decrease of 50700 tons.

Fundamental Overview and Market Forecast

Recently, the domestic supply of ethylene glycol has slightly increased, but the absolute value is still relatively low. Currently, most foreign facilities have returned to normal, and the import volume to port has gradually returned to a high level. However, downstream polyester has performed well, and the accumulation of port inventory in the short term is mainly due to the decrease in ethylene glycol stocking days in downstream polyester factories. At present, the price has fallen to a relatively low level, and the downward space is gradually narrowing. It is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will gradually enter a sideways range in the short term.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the BOPP market prices have remained stable this week. As of April 18th, domestic producers and traders μ The mainstream quoted price for m’s BOPP film is around 9633.33 yuan/ton, which is consistent with last week’s average price and an increase of about 0.26% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month.

quotations analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of raw material PP has fluctuated and increased this month. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders T30S (wire drawing) is around 7807.14 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s (7807.14 yuan/ton) price, and has increased by 0.55% compared to the beginning of this month (7742.86 yuan/ton). The price of raw material PP runs steadily, and the cost support of raw materials for BOPP is stable.

Supply: The operating load rate of membrane enterprises is stable, the supply side is sufficient, and the inventory pressure of membrane enterprises is still in place.

In terms of demand: Downstream enterprises mainly replenish small quantities, resulting in weak transactions, low purchasing intentions, and weak trading. Market demand provides stable price support

Future Market Forecast

The overall fluctuation and consolidation of upstream raw material prices, with stable support from the cost side for the market, and weak transactions due to the purchasing willingness of downstream demand enterprises to replenish essential goods. It is expected that BOPP prices will experience a narrow range of fluctuations and decline in the near future.

Recently, the epoxy propane market has been stagnant and slightly weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 17th, the average price of epoxy propane in the domestic market was referenced at 9137.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.68% compared to last Wednesday (April 10th).

Price influencing factors:

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference price for propylene on April 16th was 6906.60, an increase of 0.85% compared to April 1st (6848.60). Recently, the price of propylene raw materials has risen, while the price of liquid chlorine raw materials has first fallen and then increased. The cost of propylene oxide is strongly supported by the market, supporting market sentiment.

Supply and demand side: Last Wednesday, the supply side was mainly stable, with controllable inventory pressure. Downstream observers followed suit with reduced volume, resulting in a market stalemate and a general weekend shipment by enterprises. This week, factory inventory has been slightly under pressure, downstream is waiting and watching, procurement follow-up is insufficient, market atmosphere is weak, and the market is falling. After the decline, downstream follow-up has improved, and the market atmosphere is still good. The price of epoxy propane remains stable and watchful.

Future Market Forecast:

The epoxy propane analyst from Business Society believes that the current cost support is strong, and downstream polyether new orders are generally following suit. The transaction volume is mainly in demand, and it is expected that the epoxy propane market will stabilize or rise slightly in the short term. More attention still needs to be paid to changes in raw material prices.

Consolidation after the price drop of isooctanol

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 16th, the quotation for isooctanol was 9620 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.48% from the fluctuation of isooctanol price of 9480 yuan/ton on April 7th; Compared to April 1st, the price of isooctanol at 10060 yuan/ton fluctuated and decreased by 4.37%. After a sharp drop in April, the price of isooctanol stabilized at a low level, and there was a rebound trend in the price of isooctanol after the Qingming Festival.

The price of propylene, a raw material for isooctanol, has fluctuated and risen, supporting costs and reducing the downward pressure on isooctanol; Downstream customers are becoming more proactive in purchasing, and in the future, iso octanol manufacturers are actively shipping. The positive support for iso octanol is increasing.

Propylene prices fluctuate slightly and rise

According to the propylene commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of April 16th, the propylene quotation was 6906.60 yuan/ton, a fluctuation increase of 0.85% compared to the propylene price of 6848.60 yuan/ton on April 1st. The price of crude oil continues to rise, the cost of propylene increases, and the price of propylene fluctuates slightly; Downstream production of propylene has increased, downstream customers are actively purchasing, and propylene enterprises have a greater willingness to raise prices.

Downstream oscillation and decline in the isooctanol industry chain

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the isooctanol industry chain experienced a volatile decline in April. As of April 16th, except for a slight increase in propylene, all products in the isooctanol industry chain experienced varying degrees of decline in April. In April, downstream products of isooctanol fluctuated and fell, and the demand for isooctanol was not supported enough. After the Qingming Festival, downstream products showed varying degrees of increase, and the downward pressure on isooctanol weakened. In the future, the support for the rise of isooctanol increased.

Future expectations

According to analysts from Business Society’s octanol product data, in terms of cost, propylene prices have slightly fluctuated and risen, while the cost support for isooctanol has increased; On the supply side, iso octanol manufacturers have low inventory and smooth shipments; In terms of demand, downstream product prices in the isooctanol industry chain fluctuated and fell in April. Downstream products rebounded after the Qingming Festival, and the support for downstream demand growth increased. In the future, with stable supply and rising demand for octanol, and cost support, the support for octanol’s future rise is increasing. It is expected that octanol prices will fluctuate slightly in the future.

Price consolidation of plasticizer DOP in April

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 15th, the price of DOP was 9800 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.14% compared to the DOP price of 9690 yuan/ton on April 7th; Compared to April 1st, the price of DOP fluctuated and decreased by 0.91% at 9890 yuan/ton. The price of raw material isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, while the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and risen. The cost of plasticizer DOP has slightly decreased; The expectation of plasticizer enterprises starting production in April has decreased, and the supply of plasticizer DOP is sufficient; Downstream PVC enterprises are slowly destocking, and downstream plasticizers are in urgent need of procurement. Plasticizer manufacturers have high inventory levels, increasing pressure on the decline of plasticizers. The supply and demand of plasticizer DOP are weak, and the price of plasticizer DOP is fluctuating and consolidating.

Isooctanol prices stop falling and consolidate

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 15th, the quotation for isooctanol was 9520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.37% compared to the quotation of 10060 yuan/ton on April 1st; Compared to April 7th, the price of isooctanol was 9480 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.42%. In April, the price of isooctanol stopped falling and stabilized, with increased purchasing enthusiasm from downstream customers and active shipments from isooctanol manufacturers. The positive support for isooctanol increased.

Downstream prices of phthalic anhydride fluctuate and rise

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products by Business Society, as of April 15th, the quoted price of phthalic anhydride was 7725 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.48% compared to the price of 7612.50 yuan/ton on April 7th; Compared to April 1st, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and increased by 1.81% to 7587.50 yuan/ton. The price of crude oil continues to rise, the cost of phthalic anhydride has risen, the price of nefa phthalic anhydride has risen, and the support for the rise of ortho phthalic anhydride has increased. The profit loss of phthalic anhydride is significant, and phthalic anhydride manufacturers have a greater willingness to increase. In the future, the price of phthalic anhydride will fluctuate slightly.

Downstream PVC prices fluctuate and rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 15th, the PVC quotation was 5566 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.65% compared to the PVC price of 5530 yuan/ton on April 1st. The downstream operation of plasticizers is normal, and spring maintenance is not active. The demand for plasticizers is still supported, and the downward pressure on the demand side of plasticizers in the future is limited.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that in terms of raw materials, the price of isooctanol has stopped falling and stabilized, while the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and risen. The cost support for plasticizer DOP still exists; In terms of supply, the high starting point of plasticizer DOP is stable, and the supply of plasticizer DOP is sufficient; In terms of demand, PVC manufacturers are going out of stock, and there is still support for the demand for plasticizer DOP. In the future, the cost of plasticizer DOP has increased, and demand support still exists. It is expected that DOP prices will consolidate strongly in the future.

This week, the price of metal silicon # 441 remained weak and stable. As of April 14th, the average price in the domestic metal silicon market was 13680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.30% compared to the previous week. This week, the industrial silicon market has slightly declined, continuing the recent weak trend. The operating situation of silicon plants has decreased this week, and the release of downstream demand has also decreased due to the impact of profits, resulting in a slight increase in inventory. In the context of a dual decline in supply and demand, some silicon companies intend to lower prices to promote transactions, while downstream buyers have a willingness to purchase, but the pressure on prices is even greater, intensifying the game between the two sides. Therefore, although there were transactions in the market, the degree was not as expected, and coupled with accumulated inventory, downstream buyers were mostly bearish and focused on on-demand procurement, so industrial silicon saw a slight decline this week

The price of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 12th is as follows:

The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 13500~13600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 13550 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Tianjin Port area is 13500~13600 yuan/ton, with an average of 13550 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Kunming is 13700-13800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 13750 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 13400~13500 yuan/ton, with an average of 13450 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metallic silicon is 14000-14200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 14100 yuan/ton.

The Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal

In terms of supply:

As of April 11th, the number of silicon metal furnaces in China has increased by 289, a decrease of 5 compared to the previous month. Shaanxi will reduce one unit, Xinjiang will decrease six units, and Sichuan will increase one unit. At present, the situation of inverted production costs in silicon factories is severe, with few enterprises in Southwest China starting production. Xinjiang silicon enterprises are under cost pressure to reduce production, and silicon enterprises are offering high prices without offering prices, resulting in an overall reduction in supply.

In terms of inventory:

As of April 12th, the inventory of industrial silicon remained unchanged compared to the previous week, with a social inventory of 370000 tons. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse had 114000 tons, which was the same as the previous week, and the social delivery warehouse had 256000 tons (including unregistered warehouse receipts), which was the same as the previous week; This week, industrial silicon factory inventory was 81000 tons, a decrease of 2000 tons compared to the previous week.

In terms of demand:

Polycrystalline silicon prices have weakened this week. Recently, the game situation between upstream and downstream has intensified, and downstream silicon wafers have been reduced in production, which often puts pressure on upstream quotations. However, due to the pressure of rising costs, upstream suppliers have a clear willingness to raise prices, and the supply pressure in the photovoltaic industry chain is gradually increasing. The contradiction of oversupply is prominent, but the performance of installed capacity demand is moderate. It is expected that the upstream and downstream of photovoltaics will continue to remain sluggish, and the price of silicon materials will still be weak.

This week, the price of organic silicon has slightly fallen, while the price of aluminum alloy has remained stable. The domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference is around 14500 yuan/ton. At present, the demand for organic silicon DMC on the market remains cautious, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment and some concerns about future inventory. However, the current market price has continued to decline and has also dropped to a lower level. For downstream users who have already digested some inventory, appropriate bargain hunting and stocking orders may increase. In the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market will mainly adjust its operation in a narrow range; The current quotation for aluminum alloy ADC12 is around 20000 yuan/ton. After the resumption of production, aluminum alloy enterprises gradually stabilized, releasing some rigid procurement demand. However, the overall change is limited, and the demand for aluminum alloy remains stable.

Future Market Forecast

In summary, on the supply side, the production cost inversion of silicon plants is severe, the overall operating rate has fallen, and some areas have shut down for maintenance operations, resulting in a reduction in the overall supply situation; On the demand side, the demand for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon has remained stable, and the release of replenishment demand in the short term has weakened, highlighting the dual decline in supply and demand. Social inventory is stabilizing, and there is not much pressure on total inventory. At present, the supply and demand side has turned into a situation of dual decline in supply and demand, with fundamental bearish prices, especially the recent weakening of futures prices. However, cost support is temporarily stored, and it is expected that industrial silicon will experience narrow fluctuations and operate weakly and steadily next week.

The melamine market was weak in early April. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 10th, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7025.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.44% compared to April 1st (the reference price of melamine was 7275.00 yuan).

Price influencing factors:

Cost side: According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of Shengyishe, after entering April, the price of raw material urea has rebounded slightly, but there is still insufficient support for the melamine market. On April 10th, the reference price of urea was 2394.17, a decrease of 0.86% compared to April 1st (2415.00).

Supply and demand side: Since April, the operating rate of the melamine industry has slightly decreased, but the market supply of goods is abundant, and some enterprises have accumulated inventory. The downstream board industry is operating at a low level, and manufacturers have a cautious purchasing attitude, with a focus on using and purchasing as needed mode. The overall downstream demand follow-up is slow, and transactions continue to be in high demand, resulting in a weak market atmosphere.

Future Market Forecast:

Under the influence of the recent pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the melamine market, the market is operating weakly. It is expected that the supply side will remain at a high level in the later stage, and the support from the demand side may still be insufficient, putting pressure on fundamental supply and demand. At present, the raw material urea has slightly increased, but the short-term support for the melamine market is relatively limited. In summary, it is expected that the melamine market will continue to operate weakly in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in the price of raw material urea.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the PP market saw an increase in early April, with prices of various wire drawing brands gradually increasing. As of April 10th, the mainstream quoted price for T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7828.57 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+0.83% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: In terms of PP raw materials, the international crude oil market is still fluctuating and rising due to the previous geopolitical tension, which has a strong support effect on the cost side of oil to PP production. However, in the medium term, demand is relatively weak and there is a risk of price retracement. Due to the rapid decline in propylene prices in the early stages, the market in early April continued its consolidation after the previous rebound, providing relatively stable support for propylene to PP production. The price fluctuations of methanol and propane are equally narrow, which generally supports PP horizontally. The cost support for PP is concentrated in crude oil.

Overall, the raw material supply is still acceptable, and there is still support for the PP cost side. In terms of industry load, there has been a narrow decline, with an average load of around 72% in recent days. At the same time, production line maintenance has been relatively concentrated recently, and companies such as Shenhua Baotou and Donghua Ningbo have maintenance plans, but the market supply has not reached the expected level. The inventory position of production enterprises has decreased, and the market supply pressure has been alleviated. In terms of demand, the load of terminal enterprises is generally stable and small, with downstream PP enterprises such as plastic weaving, film materials, and injection molding having comprehensive operating rates of about 43%, 65%, and 57%, respectively. The replenishment operation of enterprises is mainly based on demand, and the trading atmosphere on the market is maintained. The market for wire drawing materials is mostly focused on the cost side, with prices fluctuating and rising.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of April 10th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has also increased. The mainstream quoted price for domestic producers and traders of Z30S (fiber) is around 7687.50 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+0.82% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 1.13% compared to the same period last year. Recently, the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber materials have seen a low increase in load, with an average operating rate of over 29%. The non-woven fabric market has seen a narrow recovery in trading, but the circulation of goods is still mainly based on contract delivery. The pattern of high overall inventory of fiber materials in the early stage continues, while the digestion speed of end products is average. It is expected that the fiber material market may continue the current consolidation trend.

In terms of melt blown materials, the market for melt blown PP has been stable and rising recently. As of April 10th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe is about 8025 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the increase and decrease is+0.16%, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.59%. At present, the demand for facial protection in China is generally high, and the consumption of medical melt blown fabric materials is not significantly driven. In addition, the downstream factories have low load, and most of the new orders are scattered. Melt blown materials are more inclined to link with the cost side market, and it is expected that the melt blown material market will continue to maintain stability and consolidate the market.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market fluctuated and rose in early April. The overall trend of upstream raw materials is stable, moderate to strong, and the support from the cost side for the market is still acceptable. The supply of goods has been tightened, and the supply pressure has been partially alleviated. The production of terminal enterprises is stable, and stocking is necessary to maintain production. The on-site momentum is average. It is expected that the PP market will tend to strengthen and consolidate in the short term.

This week, domestic cobalt prices stopped falling and stabilized

According to the cobalt market analysis system of Business Society, the cobalt price on April 9th was 223500 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.22% compared to the cobalt price of 224000 yuan/ton on April 1st. The new energy vehicle market is favorable, and the demand for cobalt is improving. This week, cobalt prices have stopped falling and stabilized.

Domestic wholesale production of new energy vehicles is increasing

The Automotive Market Research Branch of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers estimated that in March 2024, wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicle manufacturers in China reached 820000 units, a year-on-year increase of 33% and a month on month increase of 84%. SAIC Group announced that the sales of new energy vehicles in March were 84800 units, a year-on-year increase of 30%. Under the stimulation of the trade in policy and the wave of price cuts by car companies, the production and sales data of terminal new energy vehicles have significantly improved, supporting the demand in the cobalt market.

Overview and Outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, on the demand side, the recovery of the new energy vehicle market is accelerating, the consumption of the mobile phone market is maintaining, and there is some positive support for the demand in the cobalt market. Supply side: The expected arrival of cobalt raw materials at the port in March has increased significantly, indicating sufficient supply in the cobalt market. Overall, oversupply in the cobalt market still exists, and there is still pressure for the decline in cobalt prices. However, with the recovery of demand in the cobalt market, the downward pressure on cobalt prices has weakened, and it is expected that cobalt prices will stop falling and stabilize in the future.