1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of January 26, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 14000 yuan / ton, down 2.33% from 14333.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and down 22.94% from the same period last year.

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business community, as of January 26, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 19166.67 yuan / ton, up from 17500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. It was up 12.38% in the month and down 15.71% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

R22, the price of refrigerant R22 fell this month, and the market was weak. Due to the opening of new R22 quota in 2021 and the impact of recent epidemic in Hebei Province, the raw material chloroform enterprises reduced their prices to prevent excessive warehouse pressure in the future, resulting in the gradual decline of cost support, which made R22 enterprises unable to support the market and the price fell. Moreover, the demand side continued to be weak, and the export and domestic sales performance was average. Near the end of the year, the downstream had a holiday ahead of time, the market demand gradually stagnated, and the price of refrigerant R22 fell steadily this month. At present, the market quotation of R22 is mostly in the range of 14000-15000 yuan / ton, the transaction price is low, the enterprises do not receive many orders, the short-term price is stable, and there is a downward expectation in the future.

R134a, refrigerant R134a price up this month, the market is strong. Due to the overhaul of some hydrofluoric acid plants, the spot supply on the site was slightly tight. The price continued to rise after new year’s day, 5.67% higher than the price of 9530 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw materials was tight and the refrigerant manufacturers reduced the load, which supported the price rise of R134a. At present, the demand is not good, downstream enterprises stop work for holidays, traders withdraw from the market and wait-and-see, and logistics in some areas is out of service. At present, the market quotation of refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 19000-22000 yuan / ton, with high price, but the transaction atmosphere is general, and the short-term price is stable, so it is not suitable to go down.

Hydrofluoric acid as raw material. On January 26, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was 10000-10500 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price trend of on-site merchants increased slightly. Domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers had a general operating rate, and the supply of on-site goods was slightly tight. Affected by the rising price of fluorite, the demand of downstream refrigerant industry was general, and on-demand purchase was the main factor. It is expected that the on-site price will increase slightly in the later stage High.

Trichloromethane, affected by the poor demand of downstream market recently, the price of trichloromethane in Shandong continued to fall, and the trade in the industry was light. Although it was near the Spring Festival holiday, the intention of downstream goods preparation was flat, and the inventory of trichloromethane production enterprises had accumulated to a certain extent, so they were forced to make profits for shipment. At present, the price of Shandong is about 2640-2720 yuan / ton, Jiangxi Liwen is about 3600 yuan / ton, and Jiangsu is about 3700 yuan / ton. At present, there are many negative factors in the chloroform market. It will take time for the demand side to return to normal. The situation of oversupply in the industry is obvious. It is expected that the price of chloroform will be weak and stable in a short time.

3、 Future forecast

According to refrigerant analysts of business news agency, at present, raw materials are rising, supply is tight, and cost support is strong. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises have holidays one after another, and demand is gradually stagnant. The main orders are supplied by enterprises, and the market tends to be stable, with little fluctuation before the year. It is expected that the market of refrigerant will be stable in the short term, and will fluctuate with the price of raw materials in the future.

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the TDI market price was stable this week. The average price of the East China market at the weekend was 12533.33 yuan / ton, down 1.05% compared with 12666.67 yuan / ton last weekend, and up 7.12% compared with the same period last year.

This week, the domestic TDI market is deadlocked and wait-and-see. The atmosphere in the market is quiet. At the beginning of the week, the market is weak. The dealer’s quotation is lower than last week. Later, the industry mostly wait-and-see, and the price trend runs smoothly. As of the 24th, the domestic TDI offer in East China market is 12400-12500 yuan / ton, and the Shanghai offer is 12500-12600 yuan / ton.

The market of toluene continued to rise. At the initial stage, the market was very strong, and the focus of negotiation was pushed up, with an increase of 3.26% in the week. As of the 24th, the domestic average price was 4037.5 yuan / ton, and the price fell near the weekend. Affected by the public health incident, some downstream terminal factories in China may have holidays ahead of time, and the market demand for toluene was weak.

At present, the supplier’s equipment is running smoothly, the offer is relatively high and the intention of low price shipment is not high. On the other hand, affected by public health events, the holiday time of downstream terminals may be ahead of schedule. The operators are cautious, mainly purchase on demand, and the intention of buying is weak. In terms of polyether market, the lower reaches hold a wait-and-see attitude, the industry mainly purchases on demand, the buying enthusiasm is general, and the purchase of TDI is limited.

According to TDI data analyst of business club, at present, the domestic TDI market is in a stalemate, and the atmosphere in the market is quiet. In addition, the upstream and downstream companies may enter the holiday ahead of time, so the demand is weak, and the trading in the market is cold. In the later stage, the TDI market continues to consolidate temporarily, and pay attention to the downstream market news.

Magnesium market trend

On January 26, 2021, the price of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) in the main production areas of China stabilized in cash including tax, with the overall range of 14100-14400 yuan / ton, mainly through real order negotiation.

The specific price range of each region is as follows:

In fugu area, the ex factory spot exchange including tax is 14100-14400 yuan / ton; in Taiyuan area, the spot exchange is 14300-14400 yuan / ton; in Wenxi area, the spot exchange is 14400-14500 yuan / ton; in Ningxia area, the spot exchange is 14100-14300 yuan / ton.

Magnesium ingot is original magnesium ingot according to national standard (GB / t3499-2011); non pickling, no wooden pallet and non payment acceptance price, mainly based on single negotiation.

Near the Spring Festival, the downstream stock demand slightly improved, and some magnesium ingot manufacturers do not have much inventory. They are determined to support the price. It is expected that they will stabilize in the near future, and some manufacturers will increase slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the price trend of cryolite market this week was stable. The average price of Henan market was 5975 yuan / ton at the weekend, which was stable within the week, up 1.27% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic price of cryolite was temporarily stable this week. As of the 24th, the ex factory price of cryolite in Shandong was 5500-6800 yuan / ton, while that in Henan was 5000-6200 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week. The domestic cryolite enterprises have normal start-up and sufficient inventory. The annual output of Zhengzhou Tianrui crystal Co., Ltd. is 30000 tons. About 70% of the units start-up. The whole unit load of Jiaozuo Minli Industrial Co., Ltd. is normal start-up. The annual production capacity of Zibo Kunyu industry and Trade Co., Ltd. is 40000 tons. The units are in normal operation, and there is no shutdown plan for the time being. At present, the cryolite market has sufficient inventory, and the downstream demand is general. Enterprises can talk about selling more than one, and the transaction is fair.

On the upstream side, the domestic fluorite market was stable as a whole, with a slight increase of 0.20% in price within the week. The supply of goods in the yard was tight, and the demand in the downstream was insufficient. In terms of downstream electrolytic aluminum, the price fluctuated slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the price was lowered, and then it was called back. It was stable in the rising range, with an overall decline of 0.35%. At present, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continues to move down, the market demand is acceptable, and it is expected that the market will remain volatile in the later period.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the domestic cryolite manufacturers are in normal operation, and the market supply is sufficient. The downstream industry lacks support for the cryolite industry, and the demand is general. With the downstream gradually entering the holidays and logistics, the cryolite price market may maintain weak and stable operation in the later stage, and the specific attention should be paid to the market demand.

According to the monitoring data of the business news agency, after new year’s day, the hydrogen peroxide market began to plunge, and the price continued to fall. Throughout January, the hydrogen peroxide price continued to fall. At the beginning of the month, the market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1430 yuan / ton. On the 25th, the market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1290 yuan / ton, with an overall drop of 9.79%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide from November 2020 to January 18, 2021, it can be seen that the price of hydrogen peroxide is rising steadily every week in December, with an increase of 1% – 2%, and the highest weekly increase is close to 3%. In January, the terminal demand became weak, and hydrogen peroxide started a decline mode, with a decline of nearly 1% in the first week, a steady decline in the second week, and a decline of more than 1% in the third week. On January 25, hydrogen peroxide still maintained a downward trend, down nearly 10 points from the beginning of January.

Multiple negative factors suppress hydrogen peroxide Market in January

In December, the terminal caprolactam market ushered in a rising trend, and the enthusiasm for purchasing hydrogen peroxide increased. The inventory of hydrogen peroxide manufacturers was at a low level, and the market continued to rise, with an increase of nearly 10%.

After the new year’s day, the hydrogen peroxide Market ended its boom in December, with all the positive factors and multiple negative factors. With the coming of the Spring Festival, the terminal paper industry and caprolactam manufacturers stopped for maintenance in succession. Coupled with the Limited Logistics and environmental factors in Hebei, the demand for hydrogen peroxide has shrunk sharply, and the price has started to plunge. The mainstream quotation fell below 1200 yuan / ton from 1400 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, down more than 9%, and went straight to 10%.

The main manufacturers in Hebei have no quotation due to the influence of logistics factors; the mainstream quotation of hydrogen peroxide in Anhui is about 1400 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the month; the mainstream quotation of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong is 1180 yuan / ton, which is 160 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the month; the mainstream quotation of hydrogen peroxide in Hunan is 1550 yuan / ton, which is relatively stable.

Li Bing, hydrogen peroxide analyst of business news agency, said: with the coming of Spring Festival, it is difficult for the terminal demand of hydrogen peroxide to improve in the short term. It is expected that hydrogen peroxide will continue to be weak in the future, mainly downward, with weak rise.

1、 Price data

As of January 22, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic refining naphtha was 5670.00 yuan / ton, up 1.07% from 5610.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The actual transaction price of refining naphtha was about 5700 yuan / ton.

On January 22, the naphtha commodity index was 69.98, up 0.09 points from yesterday, down 31.81% from 102.62 points (2012-09-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 65.67% from 42.24 points, the lowest point on July 19, 2016. (Note: period refers to from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of naphtha from local refineries rose slightly, refineries were active in shipping, mainly in destocking.

Upstream: the US crude oil inventory increase is bad, and the global epidemic situation is still severe. Multinational restrictive measures have restrained the recovery of fuel demand. This week, WTI crude oil prices rose by 1.35% and Brent crude oil prices rose by 1.81%.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business society, toluene continued to rise in China this week. The price of toluene was 3910 yuan / ton on January 17 and 4037.5 yuan / ton on January 24, up 127.5 yuan / ton or 3.71% from last week. This week, the domestic market price of mixed xylene showed an upward trend. The price of xylene was 4110 yuan / ton on January 17 and 4160 yuan / ton on January 24, up 50 yuan / ton or 1.22% from last week. In terms of PX market, the ex factory price of domestic PX rose this week. The domestic PX operating rate was about 60%. The average price at the weekend was 5200 yuan / ton, up 10.64% from 4700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

3、 Future forecast

According to the energy analysts of business society, the naphtha market is supported by the international crude oil and domestic terminal market in the near future, but affected by the domestic epidemic, the logistics is limited, and refineries are actively de stocking at the end of the year. It is expected that the price of locally refined hydrogenated naphtha will go down in the near future, with a price of about 5400 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency, the domestic market price of maleic anhydride rose this week. As of December 22, the average price of maleic anhydride by hydrogenation of benzene remained around 8433.33 yuan / ton, up 2.43% from the beginning of the week and down 0.78% from the same period last month.

On January 22, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 79.44, unchanged from yesterday, down 35.76% from the highest point of 123.67 in the cycle (December 26, 2017), and up 55.22% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the domestic market of phthalic maleic anhydride started low load operation, and some enterprises carried out preliminary orders. Under the influence of environmental protection and Spring Festival factors, the operation rate of unsaturated resin in the downstream is on the decline, and the resin market is mainly in demand. As of the 22nd, the amount of solid anhydride in Shandong is about 8100 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu is about 8200 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi is about 8000 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is about 8000 yuan / ton, and that in South China is about 8200 yuan / ton.

On the upstream side, according to the data of business news agency’s block list, the price of pure benzene went down this week. On the 17th, the average price of pure benzene was 4506 yuan / ton; on the 24th, the average price of pure benzene was 4490 yuan / ton, down 16 yuan / ton or 0.36% from last week. The recent operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises this week is about 60%. The market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong Province mainly fell, with 4175 yuan / ton on the 18th and 4350 yuan / ton on the 22nd, down 175 yuan / ton. The price of n-butane dropped from a high level.

3、 Future forecast

Business community maleic anhydride product analysts believe that there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the maleic anhydride market. The downstream resin is mainly purchased, and the terminal demand is low. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Moreover, due to the impact of the epidemic, the logistics is limited, and the price is expected to be sorted out in a short time.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rose at the beginning of this week, and then fell slightly and remained stable. The weekly low price was 7466 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, and the weekly high price was 7486 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a weekly increase of 0.28%; the weekly high price was 7495 yuan / ton on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a weekly amplitude of 0.40%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business club, the propylene price declined all the way at the end of December, and began to rise on New Year’s day. It rose by about 100 yuan / ton on the 4th. Later, it was stable or rose, and the overall rise was ladder like. This month, it has risen by about 250-300 yuan / ton. Today, it continues to decline. The market transaction is still between 7450-7650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 7450 yuan / ton. Now the factory has no pressure on inventory, and the delivery is smooth.

On January 21, crude oil prices fell slightly, with limited impact on propylene.

This week, the spot price of PP was stable after rising, with a weekly increase of 2.68%. The market of PP futures was general, the profit margin of powder factory was improved, and the load was increased, which had a slightly positive impact on propylene.

Acrylic acid market rose slightly this week, up 0.35%, with limited impact on propylene.

Propylene oxide market fell significantly this week, with a weekly decline of 6.27%, which has a certain suppression effect on propylene.

Epichlorohydrin fell slightly this week and then stabilized, with a weekly decline of 1.92%, which had a small negative impact on propylene.

This week, the domestic n-butanol price rebounded after the decline, with a weekly increase of 1.67% and a weekly amplitude of 3.40%, which had a slightly positive impact on propylene.

This week, the market of isooctanol was stable after the decline, with a weekly decline of 4.19%, which had a certain negative effect on propylene.

Isopropanol market continued its upward trend at the beginning of this week, then stabilized and fell slightly, with a weekly increase of 13.25% and a weekly amplitude of 17.52%, which had a certain positive impact on propylene.

This week, phenol in East China rose slightly and then fluctuated and stabilized, with a weekly increase of 1.99% and a weekly amplitude of 2.32%, which had a slightly positive impact on propylene.

This week, acetone in East China rose sharply and then stabilized, with a weekly increase of 13.98% and a weekly amplitude of 14.83%, which had a significant positive effect on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

Propylene analyst of business society chemical branch thinks: Overall, there is no pressure on current inventory, crude oil price fluctuates slightly, downstream polypropylene futures market is general, operating rate rises slightly, trading picks up, and downstream market is more favorable than negative, so it is expected that propylene price will continue to fluctuate in the near future, and the possibility of rising volatility can not be ruled out.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of January 21, the average factory price of butanone in the domestic market was 6800 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on January 18 (6900 yuan / ton), the average price decreased by 100 yuan / ton, or 1.45%; compared with the price at the beginning of the month (7500 yuan / ton on January 1), the average price decreased by 700 yuan / ton, or 9.33%.

Weak demand for butanone continued to fall in January

After the new year’s Day festival in January, the overall trading atmosphere of China’s domestic butanone market was cold. Before the festival, the phased purchase of butanone in the downstream was over. The shipment in the secondary market was slow and there were not many new orders. The operating rate of the downstream terminal manufacturing industry of butanone was declining, the demand was weak, and the overall inventory pressure of the factory was relatively high. The butanone market continued to fall from the post festival to the middle of January. On the 13th, the average reference price of domestic butanone fell To 6900 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the month, the average price was reduced by 600 yuan / ton, and then the market was weak and the consolidation operation lasted for nearly a week. Entering this week, on the 19th, some factories in Shandong again slightly reduced the ex factory price of butanone by 100-200 yuan / ton. To the low-end quotation of butanone, the reference price was 6400-6500 yuan / ton. After hearing that the price was reduced, the factory’s shipment was smooth and the spot supply was tight. Most of them were customers with orders in the early stage. Then on the 24th of this weekend, the domestic butanone market was weak and stable as a whole, the overall inventory pressure in the factory was still not small, there were not many new orders in the market, the demand for downstream procurement was rigid, and the mainstream quotation was 6800-7200 yuan / ton.

As of January 21, the average factory price of domestic butanone market was 6800 yuan / ton, which decreased by 100 yuan / ton or 1.45% compared with the price on January 18 (6900 yuan / ton), and 700 yuan / ton or 9.33% compared with the price at the beginning of the month (7500 yuan / ton).

In terms of export, it can be seen from the figure that China’s butanone export volume will continue to increase from 2016 to 2020. In 2020, China’s butanone exports are mainly in Asia, and the first exporting country is Vietnam, which is mainly affected by the rapid development of Vietnam’s manufacturing industry. The second export area is Taiwan, but Taiwan mainly exports to Europe. Most of the other export destinations are South Asian countries, among which more and more small South Asian countries increase their purchase orders year by year. In 2020, butanone will be more dependent on exports, accounting for 34% in 2019 and 45% in 2020, with a full increase of 11%. But it is also caused by a series of chemical reactions brought about by this year’s epidemic, resulting in the accelerated weakening of domestic demand and the reduction of international production. The actual export dependence, which has risen by 5% this year, is relatively in line with the market. In terms of the export competition of butanone in China, the main competitor is Japan. After the signing of RCEP, China’s butanone has a certain international price advantage, with an increase of about 5% in 2021.

Short term multi weak finishing operation of butanone

Since 2021, the domestic butanone market has not shown any signs of recovery. Without the increase of downstream demand, it is expected that the butanone market will continue to be weak and stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market volume.

In terms of demand, due to energy consumption, environmental protection and other factors, the related industries in some areas of China have reduced production or even shut down in winter, resulting in weak seasonal demand. Market trading performance is not good, multi-dimensional enterprises hold rigid demand procurement, market support is weaker than the previous period. There is a certain expectation of replenishment before the Spring Festival in the downstream, but there are not many orders and the finished product inventory is high, so the willingness to stock up is not strong. It is estimated that the natural rubber market is difficult to maintain a strong operation situation, and there is a great possibility of shock consolidation or a slight downward trend. However, the effect of supporting the end consumer market is obvious, and the key position of early breakthrough is also supported.

Tire start to off season

Affected by the logistics block and environmental protection policy, the operating rate of domestic tire factories decreased significantly, and the downstream demand of natural rubber turned to the off-season. By the beginning of 2021, the start-up load of all steel tire was 55.71%, a year-on-year decrease of 8.31%; the start-up load of semi steel tire was 55.94%, a year-on-year decrease of 14.79%. The emergency response mechanism of heavy pollution weather in winter was launched, and tire enterprises in Shandong, Henan and Jiangsu regions reduced production and stopped production; the short-term shipping market was tight, and tire export was restricted by logistics; the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States intensified, and the demand was worried, and the import processing export drive was not enough; the terminal purchasing enthusiasm was poor, and the inventory of traders increased, so tire start-up was difficult to return to normal Level. Pay attention to the arrangement of stopping production and returning to work

The downstream tire enterprises of natural rubber are in the traditional off-season, and the schedule of stopping production and resuming work before and after the Spring Festival affects the progress of demand recovery. China’s tire manufacturing industry is mainly distributed in Shandong Province, especially in Dongying City. The local epidemic prevention and control work conference stressed that in order to ensure a good start to the economy in 2021, enterprises should be encouraged not to stop production as much as possible during the Spring Festival, and to stop production as short as possible during the Spring Festival. Those who stop production should make a plan to resume production in advance, so as to ensure that they can quickly return to the pre festival production level after the Spring Festival. According to the survey feedback of Longzhong information, the production stop and holiday plans of mainstream tire factories are relatively conservative. In view of Dongying City’s encouragement of non-stop production during the Spring Festival, most factories said that they would guide migrant workers to stay in the local area for the Spring Festival if conditions permit according to the production situation and personal wishes. According to the current situation, some tire enterprises are scheduled to reduce production and burden in late January or early February. Only a few enterprises have the phenomenon of workers returning home, and most of the factories have normal production scheduling. However, after the festival, the tire factory started to recover rapidly, facing the problem of insufficient order follow-up, increasing pressure on domestic sales and delivery, poor delivery in export transportation, and enterprises have concerns about the accumulation of inventory pressure in the later period. In any case, it is estimated that before and after the Spring Festival in 2021, China’s tire industry will not face the problem of recruitment difficulties due to the epidemic situation, which will lead to the delay in starting work and can not be upgraded to the normal level.

Auto market rebounded

According to the statistics of China Automobile Industry Association, in December 2020, the sales volume of the national automobile industry is estimated to be 2.82 million vehicles, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4% and a month on month growth of 1.2%; in terms of market segments, the sales volume of passenger cars increased by 5.9% and the sales volume of commercial vehicles decreased by 4.4%. In 2020, the cumulative sales of China’s automobile industry reached 25.272 million units, a decrease of 1.9% over the previous year, in which the sales of passenger cars decreased by 6.1%, and the sales of commercial vehicles increased by 18%.

Affected by the automobile market cycle and public health events, the overall operation result of China’s automobile market will still record negative growth in 2020. However, with the continuous efforts of various consumption promotion policies, such as expanding domestic demand, automobile production and sales have all stopped falling, stabilized and rebounded, showing positive growth for nine consecutive months and reaching a new high this year. However, in 2020, the global passenger car tire matching and replacement market both fell sharply year on year, even the Chinese market can not save the decline of passenger car tire sales, domestic sales and exports are shrinking to a certain extent. The above facts show that there is a significant differentiation in the segmentation market of China and even the global automobile market. Although the passenger car market has a large base, the growth rate of production and sales and the consumption of rubber tires are lower than that of the commercial vehicle market. Therefore, we should focus on the changes in the downstream core demand of natural rubber.

Heavy truck sales record

According to the data of the first commercial vehicle network, in December 2020, China’s heavy truck market is expected to sell about 114000 vehicles of various types, with a month on month decrease of 16% and a year-on-year increase of 24%. In view of the seasonality of the industry, this figure is not very high in the whole year, but it still sets a new record of monthly sales of heavy truck industry in the same period, exceeding the previous high of about 22000 vehicles. Since the recovery of domestic economy in April 2020, the heavy truck industry has hit a new high in monthly sales for nine consecutive times. Stimulated by a series of favorable factors, the total sales volume of the National Heavy Truck Market in 2020 will finally reach an unprecedented 1.623 million, accounting for about 70% of the global heavy truck sales volume, a substantial increase of nearly 450000 or 38% over the previous year’s 1.174 million, which is a milestone in the history of the heavy truck industry.

Just need bottom support

On the whole, the downstream demand of the rubber industry chain is difficult to recover significantly in winter, and the year is approaching. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the time arrangement for tire enterprises to stop production and take holidays. Although the demand has entered a seasonal low, the industry law is well known, and the expectation of the market should not be regarded as additional bad news. Before the Spring Festival, the manufacturers’ demand for goods still exists, the domestic rubber continues to be in the state of destocking, and the downstream moderate bargain hunting can form a certain support for the price. 70% of the direct demand for natural rubber is tire manufacturing industry, and the terminal consumption is the automobile market. The focus is on the matching tires and replacement tires required by commercial vehicles, especially heavy trucks. This part supports the most important demand increment of natural rubber downstream in China and even in the world.