March 30 cotton yarn spot market stable. The price of 32S is about 26700 yuan / ton. After last week’s sharp fall, the price of upstream cotton rose slightly this week. On the 30th, the price of 3128b was 15246 yuan / ton, up 98 yuan / ton from last Friday. Internationally, US cotton fell to less than 80 cents last week, textile mill buying increased significantly, US Department of agriculture report is expected to reduce cotton planting area forecast, ice cotton futures rose slightly in the shock on Monday, providing support for prices. The price of imported yarn is high, and the price difference between inner yarn and outer yarn is large. The heat of the Xinjiang cotton incident has gradually cooled down, and the market has reestablished confidence in the domestic demand for yarn grey cloth and other products. Downstream, cloth factory just need replenishment, yarn factory new orders are limited.

At present, the cotton market has improved, and the cotton yarn market is supported by the cost. However, the orders of downstream weaving factories are coming to an end, and the market is not favorable in the short term. The industry is cautious, and it is expected that the cotton yarn market will be stable in the short term.

Commodity index: on March 30, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index was 92.90, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 14.78% compared with 109.01 points (August 28, 2019), the highest point in the cycle, and increased by 10.18% compared with 84.32 points, the lowest point on August 18, 2020. (Note: period refers to from April 1, 2019 to now)

The monitoring found that in March 2021, the mainstream market of polyaluminum chloride in Henan Province of China fluctuated and decreased. As shown in the figure, on March 1, the domestic mainstream price of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride was 1791.67 yuan / ton, and on March 30, the mainstream price was 1718.57 yuan / ton, with a decrease rate of about 4%. The water treatment plants in the main production areas of Henan Province have been in normal production after the Spring Festival holiday. However, due to the requirements of environmental protection policies, since the middle of this month, all the water treatment plants in Gongyi have stopped production for rectification. At present, the manufacturers have sufficient inventory. The biggest influencing factor of this month’s market: since the start of the year, the downstream demand has gradually recovered, the supply of goods is still sufficient, and the market is generally weak. However, some manufacturers have been unable to support due to strict environmental inspection. This situation will become more and more obvious with the strict environmental inspection.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, according to the data from the business community, the trend of hydrochloric acid in North China rose in March. On March 1, the mainstream market quotation was about 172 yuan / ton, and on March 30, it was about 197.5 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of nearly 15%. The upstream liquid chlorine market rose by 17% this month, with strong cost support. The maintenance of downstream enterprises of hydrochloric acid increased, and the demand decreased. The hydrochloric acid supply enterprises had more inventory, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was general, and the market supply exceeded the demand. The support of downstream silica is relatively low, and the monthly price fluctuation is no more than 1%. The support of ammonium chloride is strong, and the monthly rise is 14%. The downstream demand of “Jinshan” hydrochloric acid is gradually increasing, resulting in the fluctuation of hydrochloric acid up about 15% this month.

Secondly, the natural gas used in the production of polyaluminum chloride. In March, the LPG market changed its downward trend and returned to the upward trend. Around the 10th, Shandong’s civil gas market showed the most obvious increase. It began to fall continuously in the middle of the month and rebounded again at the end of the month. Affected by the changes in crude oil prices and downstream gas demand, the LPG market showed a significant rise and fall trend this month. According to the data monitoring of the business association, the average price of LPG in Shandong market on March 1 was 3616 yuan / ton, while on March 30, the price was about 3966 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of nearly 7%. In the near future, crude oil rebounded and the price was obviously driven. However, the following weather became warmer, the demand was weak, and the future market of liquefied gas was weak, so its impact on the cost of water treatment products was not so prominent.

Downstream demand: at present, many local enterprises are undergoing strict inspection of environmental protection, and the downstream demand is still gradually increasing; the manufacturers in Gongyi area of Henan Province should stop production according to the requirements of environmental protection, and the inventory is gradually consumed. In the spring of the golden three silver four, the requirements of various industries for environmental protection are improved, and the demand of water treatment industry will also increase.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of business community, the two sessions in 2021 will be “carbon peak” and “carbon neutral” It is written into the government work report for the first time, striving to reach the peak of carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve “carbon neutralization” by 2060. Under this background, the chemical industry is bound to face strict rectification. With the gradual introduction and implementation of relevant policies, the environmental protection requirements will continue to be strict in the later stage, and the technical requirements for relevant enterprises will also be improved. Petrochemical enterprises are also facing strict rectification, and the technical requirements will be improved The technical threshold is constantly rising; the production stop and rectification actions are frequent, the supply side can not avoid being affected, and the price is expected to rise. At the same time, in the global central bank water triggered inflation trend, raw material prices have been rising. To sum up, under the current situation of gradual recovery of demand and sufficient inventory, the price of polyaluminum chloride is mainly stable for the time being; with the extension of shutdown time and excessive inventory consumption, some manufacturers will continue to be short of supply, and it is expected that the downstream procurement cost will gradually increase in the second, third and fourth quarters. However, it can not be ruled out that some manufacturers can not continue to support due to the long shutdown time. It is suggested that manufacturers should improve their technical level as soon as possible and meet the requirements of environmental protection.

The price of methanol in the domestic market rose 26.26% to 233.32 yuan per week, with a year-on-year decrease of 23.73%. On the mainland side, the spring inspection is in its peak period, and the supply is shrinking obviously; on the port side, the inventory is still in the process of de stocking, but it is weaker than that of the mainland. With the return of imports, there is an expectation of accumulating the inventory.

As of March 26, methanol market price summary by Region:

Region, price

Qinghai Area/

RMB 2050 / T in Shanxi

Liaoning area 2200-2100 yuan / ton

Fujian area: 2470-2480 yuan / ton

Ex factory reference 2220-2250 yuan / ton in Lianghu area

Anhui area: 2260-2280 yuan / ton

Henan Province: reference 2120-2125 yuan / ton

On the downstream side, the demand for formaldehyde downstream terminals was good this week, Baoji Xinquan resumed operation, and other devices remained normal. On Tuesday, the manufacturers of methyl ether maintained 40-60% low load operation, the downstream demand shrank, and the market transaction atmosphere was not good, resulting in the long-term low start. This week, the domestic acetic acid plants were relatively stable, and the load of some plants increased slightly. Drive the start-up of acetic acid industry to increase.

In terms of external market, as of March 25, the closing price of CFR China methanol was 290.00-291.00 USD / T; CFR Southeast Asia methanol was 365.50-366.50 USD / T. US Gulf methanol closed at 119.50-120.50 cents per gallon, down 0.5 cents per gallon; FOB Rotterdam methanol closed at 318.50-319.50 euros per ton, up 7 euros per ton.

Region, country, closing price, up and down

Asian CFR China $291.00-292.00/t $0 / T

50-366.50 US dollars / ton – 0 US dollars / ton

50-120.50 cents / gal-0.5 cents / gal

Europe ﹣ FOB Rotterdam ﹣ 318.50-319.50 euro / ton ﹣ 7 euro / ton

In the future, on the supply side, as the spring overhaul is approaching, the overhaul plans of methanol enterprises in the mainland are coming out one after another; some downstream units are recovering one after another, and the demand for methanol is rising slowly. Business community methanol analysts expect that the domestic methanol market in the short term consolidation.

This week (3.22-3.26) the market of NBR was weak and stable. According to the monitoring of business society, as of March 26, the price of NBR was 22950 yuan / ton.

On the one hand, the domestic ex factory price of nitrile is raised again by 200-600 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of March 26, Lanzhou Petrochemical n41e reported 19600 yuan / ton, 3305e reported 21200 yuan / ton, 3308e reported 21600 yuan / ton; as of March 26, Sinopec Xibu nitrile 2665 reported 20200 yuan / ton, nitrile 3365 reported 20600 yuan / ton. Butyronitrile manufacturers are generally stable in operation and low in inventory. But on the other hand, the downstream demand is relatively weak, downstream rubber products enterprises purchase more with the use of pick, stock is not much. The upstream and downstream are slightly deadlocked, the market is dominated by merchants, and the market price is generally stable compared with last week. At present, the market offers are around 19800 yuan / ton for Lanhua n41, 22000 yuan / ton for South Korea lg6250, 19700-20000 yuan / ton for Russia 3365 and 24000-24500 yuan / ton for Nandi 1052.

The price of raw materials is stable and weak, and the cost side is empty. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of March 26, the price of butadiene was 8424 yuan / ton, down slightly by 0.20% compared with 8441 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

Future forecast: NBR analysts of business community believe that the overall pressure on the supply side of NBR is not big, but on the one hand, the international crude oil is weak and volatile this week, and there is downward risk on the cost side. In addition, the downstream procurement of NBR is not strong, and the support on the demand side is insufficient. It is expected that NBR will be weak and fall slightly in the future.

According to the commodity index system of business community, the natural rubber commodity index on March 25 was 40.40, down 0.15 points from yesterday, down 59.60% from the highest point of 100.00 points in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 48.09% from the lowest point of 27.28 points on April 2, 2020.

Since the end of the Spring Festival holiday in 2021, the natural rubber spot market has experienced a rapid upward trend and continued to fluctuate and weaken after a 25% rise, of which 16287 yuan / ton on February 25 is the watershed of this round of market.

Figure 2: Trend of mainstream natural rubber prices in the first quarter of 2021

Data monitoring shows that the price of domestic natural rubber latex broke through 16000 yuan / ton on February 25, which is the highest in three years since 2018, up about 25% from 13000 yuan / ton on January 1, 2021, while the last high was 19800 yuan / ton on February 10, 2017. The price of natural rubber continued to fluctuate and decline after reaching the high point on February 25, and fell by 16.35% in the one month period to March 25.

In the first quarter of each year, China’s domestic rubber region stops cutting rubber, and Southeast Asia stops cutting rubber one after another, especially from February to March, when the output of new rubber stagnates, which is the traditional lowest supply of natural rubber. At the same time, taking the traditional Chinese Spring Festival holiday as the dividing point, trading enterprises usually choose the appropriate period to collect rubber before the festival, and after the year, after the middle of February, the downstream demand increases significantly, and the tire enterprises increase rapidly The operating rate of the industry has picked up rapidly. The lowest supply and demand rebounded sharply, and the natural rubber market rose rapidly supported by the strong spot fundamentals. However, as one of the futures varieties, natural rubber is directly affected by many repeated and miscellaneous factors in the world. In particular, the current foreign epidemic situation has a huge impact on the commodity market, and the international environment is complex and changeable. At the same time, China’s natural rubber will be cut off one after another at the end of this month and next month. The market is generally worried about the impact of new rubber listing on the market. When the market goes down, the speed is also fast Fierce.

In February, affected by the sharp drop in crude oil, the spot rubber price on the 26th dropped by about 950 yuan / ton, basically covering all the increase on the 25th. In March, the crude oil price experienced three sharp drops again. On the 9th, 18th and 23rd, the crude oil market had a great impact on the petrochemical industry and had a strong conductivity. The downstream futures commodities responded very quickly to it. The natural rubber price has dropped by 11.38% so far this month.

Figure 3: crude oil price trend since 2021

According to the analysis of the business association, at present, in terms of the output of new rubber, under the current weather conditions, less than 10% of the new rubber is cut in Yunnan producing areas in China. It is reported that the local powdery mildew is relatively serious, and it is unlikely that the new rubber will be put on the market in batches in a short period of time; the rain in Hainan producing areas is better, and the new rubber will not be cut in early next month, and the batch of new rubber in China’s domestic producing areas will be at the end of April at the fastest; the Southeast Asian producing areas will be the worst It will start cutting gradually in the middle of next month. At present, there is still a low supply period of half a month to one month. In terms of demand, the epidemic situation in foreign countries has been alleviated, and the demand for rubber products has increased. In addition, the domestic economic situation is good, and the downstream demand has increased. At present, China’s tire enterprises are producing well, and the operating rate has increased steadily. In terms of inventory, the rubber inventory and warehouse receipt coefficient of last week’s previous period decreased, and the inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to decline. In terms of import and export, it was affected by the stock preparation Affected by the demand, from January to February, the import volume of natural rubber latex in China increased by 2.95% on a month on month basis and 41.44% on a year-on-year basis; after the year, the business started to recover well and the demand for rubber volume increased. It is preliminarily expected that the import volume will still rise in March. Based on the above factors, the current natural rubber market has strong support, but the market is generally worried about the new rubber market after half a month or even one month. At the same time, through the analysis of multiple factors such as macro-economy and external environment, the short-term trend of crude oil may have more interference factors, and the amplitude may be enlarged. In the long run, the economic recovery is still good for oil prices. Comprehensive analysis shows that in the short term, natural rubber mainly fluctuates slightly, beware of the transmission effect of large changes in crude oil, and in half a month to January, beware of the impact of new rubber listing on the market. Overall, the current economic situation is good, with increased downstream demand and better support.

Trade name: isopropanol

Latest price (March 24): 8966.67 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on March 24, the overall trend of domestic isopropanol market was weak and stable, the downstream wait-and-see sentiment was obvious, there were many inquiries, and taking the goods was very cautious. The market price of propylene decreased, the price of acetone was high, the cost was under pressure, and the operation rate of isopropanol by acetone method was low. At present, the negotiation range of isopropanol in Shandong is about 8700-9000 yuan / ton, and that of isopropanol in Jiangsu is about 9100-9200 yuan / ton. The negotiation range of isopropanol in Zhejiang is around 9100 yuan / ton. Isopropanol business analysts believe that the downstream wait-and-see mood is obvious, poor factory demand, less new single turnover. It is expected that the market price of isopropanol will be stable temporarily in the short term.

According to statistics of business society, on March 23, the average price of domestic spot market of lint was 15786 yuan / ton, down 3.09% on a month-on-month basis, up 36.84% year on year. The maximum price limit for the new territories cotton wheel entering the competition from March 22 to March 26 was 16265 yuan / ton (converted to standard grade 3128b), down 122 yuan / ton compared with the previous week. As of the 23rd, the average price of national cotton price B index representing the market price of standard cotton in mainland China was 15753 yuan / ton, down 3.2% on a month basis.

According to the latest customs data, China imported 690000 tons of cotton from January to February, an increase of 68.3% year on year, and a cumulative import of 1.66 million tons in 20 / 21, an increase of 102.4% year on year. Icac3 forecast global production and demand in the month of 20 / 21, global consumption is 24.46 million tons, output is expected to be 24.2 million tons, and the end of the period inventory is 21.11 million tons. In March, the Ministry of rural areas produced 5.91 million tons, imported 2.2 million tons, consumed 8.1 million tons, and the end of the period inventory was 7.34 million tons.

Last week, the high-level dialogue between China and the United States has seen a large divergence in negotiations. It is pessimistic about the cotton trade expectations. The United States is the largest exporter of cotton, and China is the largest consumer of cotton. And because of the impact of the higher dollar, ice cotton should be heard, under the background of market pressure, the trend is not optimistic in the short term.

With the decline of cotton price, the mentality of downstream yarn enterprises slows down, and the market demand tends to be rational. In the middle of March, Zheng cotton continued to break down and the price of domestic yarn and imported cotton in Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang textile market dropped 500-1000 yuan / ton. In addition, the difficulty of new orders received by clothing and foreign trade companies due to the rise of raw materials and fluctuation of RMB increased. The inquiry and purchase of cotton yarn and polyester cotton yarn in textile factories, fabrics and textile enterprises slowed down significantly compared with January / February.

The market is not confident about the recovery of consumption in March and April. It was originally March of the textile peak season. Due to the high cost of raw materials in the early stage, the enterprises were cautious in receiving orders. In recent years, there are different falls in textile raw materials, the port cotton inventory is at a high level and is in a continuous rising state. In addition, the supply of imported cotton increased greatly from January to February 2021, and the supply of cotton market is in a state of abundance. It is expected that cotton market will be mainly volatile in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency, the domestic market price of maleic anhydride fell this week. As of March 19, the average price of maleic anhydride by hydrogenation of benzene remained at about 10800 yuan / ton, down 4.00% from 11250 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and up 29.60% from the same period last month.

On March 19, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 101.74, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 17.73% from the highest point of 123.67 in the cycle (December 26, 2017), and increased by 98.79% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The domestic market of phthalic maleic anhydride started steady this week. International crude oil plummeted, leading to a correction in the price of chemical products; the operation rate of unsaturated resin in the lower reaches recovered slowly, the resin market was weak and wait-and-see, and just needed procurement was the main reason. As of the 19th, the amount of solid anhydride in Shandong is about 10200 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu is about 10600 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi is about 10000 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is about 10000 yuan / ton, and that in South China is about 10000 yuan / ton.

On the upstream side, the price of pure benzene followed the trend of crude oil and styrene this week. On the 14th, the average price of pure benzene was 6670 yuan / ton, and on the 21st, the average price of pure benzene was 6450 yuan / ton, down 3.3% from last week. This week, the market price of hydrobenzene in Shandong remained stable, at 6125 yuan / ton. The price of n-butane fell, and the price in Shandong was 4100 yuan / ton.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in the 11th week of 2021 (3.15-3.19), there were 27 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose month on month, among which 4 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the total number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities were aniline (11.11%), lithium hydroxide (9.22%) and silicone DMC (9.01%). There were 36 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 4 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; the top 3 products with a decrease were TDI (- 8.70%), styrene (- 7.45%) and cyclohexanone (- 6.21%). This week’s average rise or fall was – 0.15%.

3、 Future forecast

Business community maleic anhydride product analysts believe that the current maleic anhydride market is in a strong wait-and-see mood, and the downstream just needs to purchase, the terminal demand is low, and the wait-and-see mood is strong, and the market is expected to be weak in a short time.

As of March 19, the average 180CST price of domestic fuel oil was 4775.00 yuan / ton (including tax), down 1.04% from 4825.00 yuan / ton on March 15, according to the data of business news agency.

On March 19, the fuel oil commodity index was 96.71, unchanged from yesterday, down 16.56% from 115.91 (October 17, 2018), the highest point in the cycle, and up 109.87% from 46.08, the lowest point on August 15, 2016. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Domestic marine oil raw materials have limited support for fuel oil 180CST. The average price of Fukuang shale oil in the latest bidding on March 16 was 3436 yuan / T, down 130 yuan / T. according to the business news agency, as of March 19, the self provided low sulfur quotation of fuel oil 180CST in Zhoushan area was 4600 yuan / T, the self provided low sulfur quotation of fuel oil 120cst was 4700 yuan / T, and the self provided low sulfur quotation of fuel oil 180CST in Shanghai area was 4850 yuan / T, the self provided low sulfur quotation of fuel oil 120cs The price is 4950 yuan / ton.

This week, the international crude oil price plummeted, and the support for fuel oil price was limited. According to business news agency monitoring, oil prices have been falling for five consecutive trading days. At the macro level, due to the release of water from the Federal Reserve and central banks, inflation expectations continued to rise, US bond yields rose, and the prices of risky assets such as stock markets and commodities were suppressed. On Thursday, the market’s expectation of inflation intensified and the tide of US debt selling hit. The yield of 10-year US debt rose to more than 1.7% for the first time in 14 months. The strengthening of the US dollar led to the decline of the stock index and the sharp drop of oil price. In addition, the pace of global economic recovery was once again dragged down by the epidemic. This time, it mainly came from the European region. The European vaccination process was blocked, which led to the expectation of slower economic recovery, Oil prices are under pressure. WTI and Brent crude oil fell to two-week lows one after another. WTI closed below US $60. WTI crude oil hit the biggest one-day decline in the second half of the year.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory has increased, with limited support for fuel oil. It is understood that the Singapore enterprise development board (ESG): as of March 17, Singapore’s inventory of residual fuel oil (excluding asphalt), including fuel oil and low sulfur waxy residual oil, increased by 51000 barrels to a three-month high of 22.849 million barrels.

Future forecast: business community energy analysts believe that a sharp drop in crude oil may lead to a downward trend in raw material prices. The fuel oil market is mainly on the lookout, and some enterprises will set prices next week. At present, the downstream demand of the ship fuel market is light, and the terminal mainly purchases on demand, while the downstream replenishment is cautious. Fuel oil prices are expected to decline next week.

1、 Domestic sodium pyrosulfite price trend chart

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic price of sodium pyrosulfite was relatively stable this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite was 1783.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 1783.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up or down by 0.

2、 Market analysis

In March, the domestic soda ash and sulfur prices continued to be high and strong, and the cost of raw materials continued to be high. At the beginning of this month, the sodium pyrosulfite manufacturers successively increased the ex factory prices, which led to a sharp rise in the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price as a whole. This week, the market price range of industrial sodium pyrosulfite is 1700-1950 yuan / ton, and most of the prices are concentrated in 1700-1800 yuan / ton. The production of the enterprise is stable, the inventory is maintained at about 30%, the enterprise mainly completes the orders of old customers, and the increase of new orders is limited. (the above prices are quoted by domestic mainstream enterprises, and some enterprises not quoted are not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation).

As of March 19, domestic soda price rose by 9.46% in March, and sulfur price rose by 8.5%. The cost of upstream raw materials continued to rise. Supported by the cost, it is expected that the market price of sodium pyrosulfite will continue to rise in the future.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of business news agency believe that the cost of raw materials has risen sharply. Supported by the cost, it is expected that the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite will continue to rise.