The growth of commercial crude oil stocks in the United States, coupled with the severe epidemic situation in some countries, led to a sharp drop in international oil prices. In addition, the downstream demand is low for several days, and the sales pressure of businesses is increasing, so they have no choice but to open the window of downward adjustment. According to business news agency data, as of May 20, the price of MTBE was 5956 yuan / ton, down 2.39% month on month and up 65.46% year on year.

The market price of MTBE is about 50-150 yuan / ton today. Crude oil has stopped rising and falling, but the market mentality is bad. In addition, gasoline market sales are general, and the demand for raw materials is flat. Although the main refineries in Shandong are overhauled, the demand in the area is general and the market is not easy to rise or fall. In the southern market, recently, the imported goods have come to Hong Kong one after another, and the supply is relatively abundant, but the demand is flat, and the merchants are slow in shipping.

In terms of external market, as of May 20, the FOB Gulf price of the United States closed at US $788.63-788.99/t, down by US $20.91/t, the FOB ara price of Europe closed at US $720-720.5/t, down by US $24 / T, and the FOB Singapore price of Asia closed at US $725-727 / t, down by US $6 / T.

region ., Country. Closing price. Up and down

Asia FOB Singapore 725-727 USD / T – US $6 / T

U.S.A FOB Bay 788.63-788.99 USD / T – US $20.91/t

Europe FOB ARA 720-720.5 USD / T – US $24 / T

In the near future, it is difficult to change the flat demand situation, and the market will continue to be in the transition of consolidation. Business community MTBE analysts believe that the domestic MTBE market in the short term mainly narrow consolidation.

According to the monitoring sample data of the business agency, as of May 19, the average price of melamine enterprises was 14400 yuan / ton, down 5.47% compared with last Wednesday (May 12), up 14.29% compared with the beginning of the month, and up 42.34% compared with April 19.

Melamine prices rose to a high pressure after the fall opened

In recent months, the price of melamine has continued to rise, with a rapid rise in April and a new high in May. With the price rising to a high point, the undertaking capacity of downstream enterprises at a high level has been continuously reduced, the follow-up of new domestic trade orders is insufficient, the pressure on high market shipment is heavy, the price of melamine is loose, and the focus of negotiation is low. At present, the operating rate of melamine is relatively high, and with the decline of price, Under the mentality of buying up instead of buying down, the wait-and-see mood is getting stronger, and the purchase is just needed.

Upstream urea, May 19, Shandong urea market rose. On the demand side, the demand for agriculture has increased; Affected by the mentality of buying up but not buying down, the downstream compound fertilizer and rubber sheet factories took goods actively, and the new orders of enterprises followed up well. Supply side: some urea plants shut down for maintenance, and the supply side is tightened. Enterprises have a strong attitude of supporting prices.

Melamine analysts of business news agency believe that, in general, there is a certain support on the cost side, but the demand side is not good. Melamine may continue the weak market in the short term, and it is more likely that the focus of market negotiation will continue to decline.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the large list of business agencies, the domestic PA6 market was positive in the early May, with spot prices rising significantly. As of May 18, the main offer price of sample enterprises for Zhongwei 2.75-2.85 was about 15666.67 yuan / ton, a 5.62% increase compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, with a 37.83% increase year on year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

The domestic spot market in the upstream caprolactam is strong in recent years. As of May 18, Nanjing Oriental caprolactam liquid price is 15000 yuan / ton, and the unit load of 400000 tons / year is 8500. The liquid price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam is 14700 yuan / ton, and the 450000 T / a unit is normally started and accepted to be delivered. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical is 14700 yuan / ton, and the 300000 t / a unit is normally started and accepted to be delivered. The price of caprolactam liquid in Shandong Luxi Chemical Industry is 13800 yuan / ton, the factory has a capacity of 300000 tons, and the unit is in normal production. The price of pure benzene, the direct raw material, will stabilize after rising, and will benefit the cost side of caprolactam. It is expected that the market will gradually stabilize in the near future and enter the high level to sort out the market.

The trend of caprolactam is strong, and the cost side support of PA6 is rising. Last month, PA6 spot market continued to fall for more than a month, and the market of this round continued to stop falling and rebound at the end of April. Currently, PA6 prices follow up upstream raw materials, downstream factories are cautious in purchasing and follow-up. The transaction on the site is weak, and the actual delivery and investment are mostly small orders. The price of engineering materials is slightly higher than other materials. Although caprolactam is also rising in slicing, the profit situation of polymerization plant may be difficult to open the negative profit situation which has been maintained before. The overall commencement rate of the industry is about 70%.

3、 Post market forecast:

Analysts from business society believe that the upstream caprolactam market of PA6 in the first half of May was stronger, and PA6 was passively rising due to cost support. The willingness to purchase PA6 downstream plants is still weak, and the end-users are mainly cautious and demand continues to weaken. In general, although PA6 is in the rising market, the accumulation of cost pressure and the poor profit of the industry are continuously hindering the domestic PA6 market. PA6 prices are expected to increase only if they are limited.

Recovery of cobalt Market

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the domestic cobalt market rebounded from the bottom in May, and the cobalt price rose slightly. As of May 17, the price of cobalt was 353000.00 yuan / ton, up 2.32% from 345000.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (May 1); Compared with the cobalt price of 341666.66 yuan / ton on May 7, the price increased by 3.32%. Cobalt price bottomed out and rebounded.

Domestic mobile phone market

According to the data released by China Academy of information technology, from January to April 2021, the total domestic mobile phone market shipment reached 125 million units, a year-on-year increase of 38.4%. The domestic mobile phone market rose sharply, but compared with the sharp rise of 92.8%, 240.9% and 65.9% in the first three months, the overall domestic mobile phone shipment turned to a year-on-year decline of 34.1% in April. Although we bid farewell to the growth of shipment volume, the proportion of 5g mobile phone shipment volume still increased steadily, reaching a new high of 77.9% in April. In the first quarter of 2021, the domestic smartphone shipment has increased. In the first quarter of 2020, China is in the period of strictly controlling the epidemic situation. In April 2020, there will be a retaliatory rebound in mobile phone consumption. The decline of smart phones in April 2021 is more a reflection of the slowdown in consumer demand. In the future, the sales of mobile phones slowed down, the demand of cobalt Market decreased, and the rising power of cobalt Market weakened.

Global mobile phone sales pick up

According to the report of global mobile phone shipment volume in the first quarter of 2021 released by strategy analytics, a statistical agency, the global smart phone shipment volume in the first quarter of 2021 was 340 million, an increase of 24% over the same period last year, reaching a new high since 2015. According to the data released by DIGITIMES research, the global smartphone shipment in 2020 will be 1.24 billion units, 8.8% lower than that in 2019. In the first quarter of 2021, the sales volume increased greatly, mainly due to the healthy demand momentum and the strong promotion of 5g by Chinese manufacturers. However, the mobile phone market in the future is affected by the epidemic situation in India, and the sales volume of the mobile phone market in the first quarter of 2020 will drop sharply due to the epidemic situation. The growth of the mobile phone market is limited, and the driving force of the sales volume of the mobile phone market in the future is limited.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at business news agency, believes that mobile phone sales rose sharply in the first quarter, and domestic cobalt market demand rose, stimulating domestic cobalt prices to rise. However, the growth momentum of mobile phone market in the future is insufficient. It is expected that the demand of cobalt market will decline in the future. The rising momentum of cobalt market is insufficient, and the downward pressure still exists. Cobalt price is expected to rebound slightly in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the price of pure benzene stabilized after rising this week. On May 9, the price of pure benzene was 7600-7853 yuan / ton (average price 7720 yuan / ton), and on Sunday (May 16), the price of pure benzene was 8150-8300 yuan / ton (average price 8230 yuan / ton), with an average price of 510 yuan / ton, or 6.61%, higher than last week; It was 148.64% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In the early stage, the external price was high, the spot supply in the domestic market was tight, and the price of pure benzene was supported. This week, Sinopec’s pure benzene listing price was raised twice, with a total increase of 500 yuan / ton to 8200 yuan / ton. The rapid rise in the price of pure benzene led to increased resistance in the downstream, and the market’s enthusiasm for catching up fell, and the price stabilized in the second half of the week.

In terms of external market, the reference price of pure benzene in South Korea market on Friday (May 14) was 1043.67 US dollars / ton, down 16 US dollars / ton, or 1.51%, from May 7; The import reference price of East China was US $1050 / T, which was the same as that on May 7.

In terms of crude oil, it was reported within the week that the colonial pipeline in the United States was forced to close due to hacker attacks, but the positive impact of the closure was short-lived, and the international oil price fell back after rising. The market is concerned about the impact of the Indian epidemic on demand recovery. On May 7, Brent rose 0.235 USD / barrel, or 0.34%; WTI rose 0.48 USD / barrel, or 0.74%.

Downstream: styrene: styrene rose first and then fell this week. On May 16, the price of sample enterprises was 10150 yuan / ton, up 1.5% compared with last week, and up 92.72% compared with the same period last year. Styrene in the cost support and tight spot supply, driven by the spot to maintain a strong.

Aniline: this week aniline stable price consolidation. Within the week, Huatai plant was restarted and market supply increased. On May 16, the price of aniline in Shandong was 11300-11500 yuan / ton, while that in Nanjing was 11700 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week, up 146.76% over the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the global economy and demand are expected to improve as a whole, and crude oil has an upward momentum. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the epidemic situation, OPEC + production reduction plan, global economic data and US crude oil inventory data.

Downstream: styrene, the main downstream product: cost side, strong shock of crude oil, tight spot situation of pure benzene is expected to remain unchanged in the short term, and cost support is strong. Some maintenance plants of styrene will resume production next week, and the supply is expected to increase. However, the port still has the expectation of inventory decline next week. The styrene inventory is still at a low level, and the spot circulation is still tight. Therefore, under the support of cost and tight spot supply, the styrene will still fluctuate strongly in the short term.

On the market side, the tight domestic spot supply pattern will continue in the short term. In terms of external market, Europe and the United States will maintain supply tension in the short term, with strong external support. On the downstream side, the excessively fast rising price leads to the compression of downstream profit space and the limitation of chasing up. Overall, the action force of pure benzene is relatively reduced, but the fundamental support still exists. It is expected that the price of pure benzene will be stabilized in the short term. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market (mainly styrene inventory, demand changes), domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, external market trends on the price of pure benzene.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the PP market adjusted in the second week of May, and the spot prices of various brands rose and fell with each other. As of May 14, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) for domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8866.67 yuan / ton, up 2.11% from the average price at the beginning of the month and 17.70% from the same period last year.

Cause analysis

The domestic market trend of PP upstream propylene has recovered steadily in the near future. In the second half of last month, the price of propylene fell and stabilized at the end of the month. After the festival, spot prices began to rise by 50 yuan / ton for several days. Propylene fell in the US market on July 7, and Asian propylene prices remained stable, which may have a negative impact on the propylene market. At present, the propylene market has no pressure on inventory, some units are still under maintenance, and the supply is slightly tight. The terminal operation rate is acceptable. However, the crude oil market has a large decline this week, and propylene is expected to remain stable.

The recent PP raw material propylene market trend is stable after rising, PP cost side support is enhanced. The current market takes on the historical high load of domestic polypropylene enterprises in the first quarter, and the industry competition is strengthened, as well as the previous production line is put into operation, and the supply and demand contradiction in the market is revealed. Affected by the recent centralized maintenance of polymerization plant production line, and the development of environmental protection inspection in some provinces and cities, the situation of high load in PP industry was opened, and the market supply began to shrink. This week, PP’s domestic two oil inventory decreased by about 5.4% compared with last week, and the overall domestic inventory decreased by about 4.5% compared with last week. However, the downstream customers are limited to buy the goods, so they usually take the strategy of taking the goods carefully. In addition, the impact of national policies on futures also affects the mentality of the spot market.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of May 14, the mainstream offer of domestic producers and traders Z30S (fiber) was similar to that of wire drawing materials, with the price of about 9016.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.27% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and an increase of 14.38% compared with the same period last year. This week, the market performance of fiber material is similar to that of wire drawing material, and the production scheduling is significantly lower than that of wire drawing material. The proportion of production scheduling in this week is reduced by 2.17%. At present, the demand for fiber PP is stable, and the direct downstream spunbonded non-woven industry is still competitive. The terminal enterprise’s replenishment intention for raw materials is not high. The rise of fiber materials also benefited from the tight supply market in the maintenance season.

Meltblown materials, this week meltblown PP market basically stable operation, spot prices remain stable at 10000 yuan level. As of May 14, the average quotation of pph-y1500 sample enterprises monitored by the business community was about 10833.33 yuan / ton, and the price range of imported materials was about 12000 yuan / ton. At present, the domestic epidemic situation is generally stable, and the situation of saturated demand for medical protective equipment is relatively stable. In terms of overseas epidemic situation, the epidemic situation in some Asia Pacific countries has gradually deepened in the near future, which may increase the epidemic prevention pressure of surrounding countries and regions in the future. At present, from the perspective of market performance, there is no obvious pulling effect on meltblown material market. At present, the saturation of domestic melt blown fabric manufacturing market remains unchanged, and it is expected that melt blown PP market will continue to be stable.

Future forecast

Business community PP analysts believe that: in the second week of May, the domestic polypropylene industry is in the peak maintenance season, and there is a supply side advantage of tight supply. The propylene price at the cost side gradually recovered, which strengthened the support for PP cost side. In the medium and long term, the current production plan of Jinneng technology and other enterprises may affect the future spot price of PP. Demand performance is still poor, downstream goods take cautious attitude unchanged, the actual trading weakness. It is expected that in the short term, the price of PP will fall due to the lack of demand kinetic energy.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus decreased slightly this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 17733.33 yuan / ton last Friday and 17633.33 yuan / ton this Friday. The price was reduced by 0.56% within the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the overall trend of domestic yellow phosphorus market was slightly down, yellow phosphorus Market inquiry was general, and traders’ wait-and-see mood was obvious. Downstream customers mainly purchase on demand, and the price has declined. Up to now, the mainstream price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 17500-17700 yuan / ton; The mainstream price in Sichuan is about 17400-17700 yuan / ton; The mainstream price in Guizhou is about 17700 yuan / ton. In recent years, temporary power rationing in Yunnan has resulted in a slight rebound of yellow phosphorus in some areas of Yunnan.

In terms of phosphate rock, the price of phosphate rock of Guanglong Mining Co., Ltd. in Kaiyang, Guizhou, was stable this week. The ex factory price of 30% grade phosphate rock was 420 yuan / ton, and there were few new orders. Fuquan Huifa mining phosphate rock price dynamics, 30% grade phosphate ore quoted 420 yuan / ton, the price is stable, the current enterprise supply and demand is basically normal. The price of phosphate rock in Hebei Fanshan Phosphate Rock Co., Ltd. is stable. The ex factory price of 30% grade phosphate rock is 600 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as the price a week ago. At present, the supply and demand are basically normal.

In terms of coke, at present, the price of coking coal continues to be high, the supply of coke is tight, the downstream demand is better, and the coke market is expected to be still relatively strong in the short term under the triple positive support. Up to now, the market price of grade II metallurgical coke in Liupanshui coke market is 2520 yuan / ton. In the coke market of Tangshan, Hebei Province, the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke is 2680 yuan / ton, and that of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 2730 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton from the previous trading day and 700 yuan / ton from the same period last month. The seventh round of increase of coking enterprises is basically implemented. Tangshan steel enterprises have strong intention to replenish the stock, and the market is bullish. Coking enterprises have a positive attitude and are optimistic in the future.

The downstream phosphoric acid market is relatively stable this week with little fluctuation. As of May 14, the quotation in Sichuan is about 4900-5650 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan is about 5200 yuan / ton, that in Beijing is about 4800 yuan / ton, that in Hubei is about 5200-5500 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin is about 5900 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is about 5800 yuan / ton, The quotation in Henan Province is about 5500 yuan / ton, and the price of phosphoric acid fluctuates little.

3、 Future forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from chemical branch of business society believe that the price of yellow phosphorus will be slightly reduced this week. There is a strong wait-and-see mood in the downstream market, and the enthusiasm to take the goods is not high. Due to the increase of coke price and the recent temporary power restriction in Yunnan, yellow phosphorus rebounded slightly in some areas. However, abundant water is approaching, and it is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be stable in the short term.

According to the data of business agency, the average price of silver market in the early market on May 14 was 5445.33 yuan / kg, which was 0.87% in the day, up 4.20% compared with the average price of spot market in the early market at the beginning of May 1, 5321.67 yuan / kg; Compared with the beginning of the year (01.01), spot price of silver was 5550 yuan / kg, down 0.08%.

On May 14, spot price of gold was 379.5 yuan / g, up 0.13% in the day, up 2.85% compared with the average price of the spot market in the early market of early market in early may (5.1); Spot gold price was 392.70 yuan / g, down 3.36% compared with the beginning of the year (01.01).

Expected overdraft excess precious metal up weak

In the past half of the year, the demand for gold investment has been weakening, but the decline has slowed down; In April, the total position of global gold ETF decreased by 18.3 tons (about US $1.1 billion, and the asset management scale decreased by 0.5%), and the stock losses for several consecutive months have made the global gold ETF asset management scale fall by more than 20% compared with the highest gold price in August 2020.

But the trend of net purchase of central bank gold is postponed; In the first quarter of 2021, the global central bank realized 95.5 tons of net purchase gold, down 23% year-on-year, but increased by 20% on month, which is equivalent to the quarterly net purchase amount between 2016 and 2017.

In theory, gold is the latest choice to resist inflation. However, due to the sharp rebound at the bottom of March April last year, the investment demand is overdrawn in advance, the gold price is in the long-term profit settlement, and the high level is callback. At present, it basically enters the platform fluctuation range of multi empty holding. The sharp jump of gold price is still waiting for the gold investment demand to recover again, and the current trend is not obvious.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, half a month after the sharp rise of hydrogen peroxide in April, the market started a weak decline, and hydrogen peroxide rose by 3.22% in April as a whole. After May Day, hydrogen peroxide continued to decline. In the week of May 11, the rigid demand of terminal increased, and hydrogen peroxide started to rise. It rose for three consecutive days, with an increase of 6.25%.

According to the monthly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide from January 2020 to April 2021, in the first five months of 2020, hydrogen peroxide dropped for four consecutive months. In the first four months of 2021, hydrogen peroxide showed relatively strong performance. From January to February, hydrogen peroxide fell for two consecutive months, with a large decline. The maximum decline was 21.71% higher than that of 2020. From March to April, it rose for two consecutive months, with an increase of nearly 10% in March and 3.22% in April. After the May Day holiday, hydrogen peroxide was weak, and this week opened a rising mode, with an increase of more than 6%.

On May 13, some domestic hydrogen peroxide manufacturers quoted as follows:

Luxi Chemical hydrogen peroxide quoted 1030 yuan / ton, 100 yuan / ton higher than that in early May; Hebei Zhengyuan chemical fertilizer hydrogen peroxide quoted 1000 yuan / ton, the price increased by 40 yuan / ton; Anhui Quansheng chemical hydrogen peroxide quoted 1200 yuan / ton, the price increased by 50 yuan / ton; Hunan Shuangyang high tech chemical hydrogen peroxide quoted 1200 yuan / ton, stable.

Terminal rigid demand increases, hydrogen peroxide rises again

In the middle of April, due to the increasing demand of terminal paper industry and the shutdown and maintenance of Hydrogen Peroxide Plant of Anhui Quansheng, the hydrogen peroxide plant had low inventory and tight supply, so the ex factory price was continuously increased. Hydrogen peroxide staged a wave of rising sentiment, rising for half a month, and then gradually callback. After May Day, the performance of hydrogen peroxide was not good. In the week of May 11, the purchase of hydrogen peroxide terminal paper industry increased, hydrogen peroxide made efforts again, and the rising trend restarted. Hydrogen peroxide enterprises continued to raise the ex factory price, and the average price of hydrogen peroxide Market exceeded 1000 yuan, or more than 6%.

On May 13, the price index of hydrogen peroxide and corrugated paper was 158.07, up 4.93 points from yesterday, down 35.74% from the highest point 246.00 in the cycle (October 21, 2019), and up 46.99% from the lowest point 107.54 on January 29, 2019（ Note: period refers to the period from January 1, 2017 to now

After the May Day holiday, the price of corrugated paper is temporarily stable, but with the cancellation of nine dragon paper preferential policies, the price of base paper in some areas has slightly increased. But recently, with the recent rise in the price of waste paper raw materials, corrugated paper prices showed an upward trend. The paper industry has a high enthusiasm for purchasing hydrogen peroxide, and the hydrogen peroxide Market is getting better and rising continuously.

Li Bing, hydrogen peroxide analyst of business news agency, thinks: the market of terminal paper industry is improving, and the rigid demand is increasing, so there is still room for hydrogen peroxide to rise in the future.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business association, the price of acetic anhydride finally reached the top in May, and the price of acetic anhydride fell in May. On May 12, the price of acetic anhydride was 12000.00 yuan / ton, down 333.33 yuan / ton or 2.70% from 12333.33 yuan / ton on May 1.

Acetic acid price trend

As can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid, the price of acetic acid fluctuated and fell by 1.25% in May. After the Spring Festival, the price of acetic acid continued to rise by 60%. The price of acetic acid continued to rise because of the positive stimulation. After the May Festival, the positive support of acetic acid was not there, and the price of acetic acid fluctuated and fell.

Specific value index of acetic acid and acetic anhydride

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the commodity price index of acetic acid and acetic anhydride on May 11 was 140.75, up 1.75 points from yesterday, down 4.47% from the highest point 147.34 (2021-04-11) in the cycle, and up 101.82% from the lowest point 69.74 on August 4, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from January 1, 2015 to now). The price of acetic acid fluctuated and fell, which was bad for acetic anhydride market.

Market summary and future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, acetic anhydride data analyst of business news agency, believes that after the May Day holiday, the price of acetic acid fluctuated and fell, the positive support of acetic acid was not available, and the cost of acetic anhydride decreased. Due to the historical high price of acetic anhydride, the downstream customers of acetic anhydride had a greater resistance to high price of acetic anhydride, and the downstream enterprises of acetic anhydride stopped work more under the cost pressure, and the demand for acetic anhydride was insufficient, the positive support of acetic anhydride was not available, and the price of acetic anhydride fell. Acetic anhydride price is expected to fall in the future.