1、 Price data
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According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the price of domestic local refiners’ petroleum coke products is temporarily stable. On October 28, the average price of petroleum coke in the market was 1495.75 yuan / ton, and the price remained high, up 28.03% year-on-year. On October 27, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 116.34, unchanged with yesterday, 25.23% lower than 155.59 (2018-01-25), and 73.93% higher than 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
The price of petroleum coke is high, and the operation is stable temporarily. The supply of overhaul goods of manufacturers is less. Some medium sulfur coke manufacturers have raised the price by 20-30 yuan per ton. In addition, the output of local refineries has increased or decreased, so the speed of production improvement is slow.
Upstream: in the context of weak demand, whether the oil price can be stable or not, the market still pays more attention to the production reduction policies of OPEC + oil producing countries. Although OPEC + is still in the implementation period of the production reduction agreement, and the implementation strength has been commendable for a time, the oil market is looking for a rebalancing pattern after the demand has cooled again. It is unlikely that OPEC + will continue to increase its efforts on the basis of the current production reduction. Moreover, there are big differences within the organization, and it is difficult to reach a new consensus agreement in the short term. Therefore, it is expected that there will still be downward risks in oil prices in the near future.
Downstream: in the near future, the price of carbon in the downstream is stable, the price of electrolytic aluminum remains high, and the demand side of petroleum coke has stable support. However, in the later stage, there is limited room for carbon price rise.
The oil coke analysts of the business agency believe that: at present, the overall supply of petroleum coke is relatively tight, showing a good situation, and the maintenance of some manufacturers is good for the formation of petroleum coke. Comprehensively, the short-term or high-level consolidation trend of petroleum coke is mainly expected, and the specific demand of downstream market.
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