1、 Trend analysis
On the 22nd, the spot copper price was 52380 yuan / ton, up 0.21% from the previous day, 6.83% higher than the beginning of the year, and 11% higher than the same period last year. LME copper’s 3-month contract opened at a low level and then fluctuated, closing at US $6972.5, down 0.34%, while Shanghai copper’s main force retreated 52150 yuan after opening, and then maintained a low and narrow range of shock operation, closing at 52280 yuan, up 0.25%.
The Candelaria copper mine in Chile has been suspended since Tuesday. On Monday, Codelco workers took to the streets, refusing to announce layoffs during the outbreak. On Wednesday, Reuters reported that China may buy copper reserves. According to the report, reserves of copper and other commodities may be approved at a meeting of Chinese leaders next week. Citigroup analyst Max Leighton said potential catalysts for increasing reserves include deteriorating Sino US relations and the new crown crisis, highlighting the need to ensure that Chinese stocks can withstand supply disruptions. Over the next five years, China’s state-owned buyers are likely to gradually buy 700000 tons of copper, bringing inventories to 90 days of net imports, Leighton said. In the first nine months of 2020, China’s imports of unwrought copper and finished products reached 4.99 million tons, up 41% year-on-year, exceeding the annual import volume in 2019. Some of the copper comes from stock on the exchange. In the short term, the market follows the macro sentiment triggered by the progress of the US stimulus plan, and the space under the copper price is limited under the condition of abundant global liquidity.
In view of the above situation, copper strike, copper reserves are expected, but macro uncertainty and lack of bright spots in demand, short-term copper prices or strong shocks.