Business agency data monitoring showed that the average domestic spot price of gold on the 22nd was 410.25 yuan / g, an increase of 2.41% compared with 399.75 yuan / G on the 21st; compared with 342.54 yuan / g at the beginning of the year (01.01), it was 19.77% higher; compared with the valley value (3.19), the spot price of gold was 331.75 yuan / g, up 23.66%.
On the 22nd, the spot price of domestic silver was 5110 yuan / kg, an increase of 9.55% compared with the spot price of 4371.67 yuan / kg on the 21st; compared with the spot price of silver at the beginning of the year (01.01), 4281.67 yuan / kg, an increase of 16.67%; compared with the valley value (3.19) of the year, the spot price of silver was 2942.67 yuan / kg, up 73.65%.
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Gold price hit a new 9-year high, silver price soared 9.55% in a single day, and the index stood at 58.28
According to the commodity index system of business club, the gold commodity index on July 22 was 108.99, up 2.57 points from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, and 88.96% higher than the lowest point of 57.68 on August 2, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
The domestic spot gold price hit a record high in nearly nine years. On the 22nd, Shanghai Gold Exchange quoted 411.13 yuan / g, up 9.6 yuan / g, or 2.39%, compared with 401.53 yuan / G on the 21st.
According to the commodity index system of business club, the silver commodity index on July 22 was 58.28, up 5.08 points compared with yesterday, 43.29% lower than 102.76 points (2011-09-06), and 73.66% higher than the lowest point of 33.56 points on March 19, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
After years of consolidation, the silver price broke through 5000 yuan / kg on the 22nd, and the silver commodity index stood at 58.28. On the 22nd, spot silver prices soared. Shanghai silver (15kg standard weight, 99.99% silver ingot) in Shanghai Gold Exchange quoted 5272 yuan / kg in the morning, 487 yuan / kg higher than 4785 yuan / kg on the afternoon of 21, up 10.18%.
Gold and silver prices tend to be the same, and the range of rise and fall is different
According to the data of the business agency, based on the gold and silver price on September 1, 2011, the price trend of domestic spot gold and silver in the past 10 years is generally similar, but the range of rise and fall is increasingly differentiated. After the expansion of the gold silver ratio, it has been running at a high level for a long time.
On the 22nd, the silver price soared, and the gold silver ratio was pushed down, which was lower than the previous period. After the spot silver price broke through the 5000 yuan mark, can the difference between the rise and fall of gold and silver continue to narrow?
1. Commonness: investment demand may continue to push up prices
In 2020, the spot price of precious metals will be deeply affected by investment demand. According to relevant data, in 2020, the holding of silver ETF will increase by 7500 tons, up by 35%. In the first half of 2020, the total scale of global gold ETFs (in tons) will increase by 25%. In the first half of 2020, the global total inflow will reach 734 tons, equivalent to 45% of global gold minerals in the first half of this year
In 2020, the demand for safe haven will be strong. Under the epidemic situation, the expectation of global monetary easing policy, the weakening of the US dollar, and the change of Sino US situation, the market demand for precious metal investment will surge. At the same time, the profit making effect under the expected convergence will push up the investment demand again.
The burning point of risk aversion in the near future:
（1） Central banks of various countries have frequent monetary easing policies, inflation expectations are rising, some countries have negative real interest rates and central banks’ balance sheets are expanding;
（2） The number of new coronavirus infections in overseas countries continued to increase, and the expectation of rapid economic recovery in some economies was dashed. Compared with the improvement of domestic economic trend in euro area and China, the structural weakening expectation of US dollar gradually forms;
（3） The situation between China and the United States is becoming increasingly tense. The US Department of Commerce announced on Monday that 11 Chinese companies would be included in the list of US economic entities, after two previous statements had listed 37 companies and entities; on July 13, 15, 17 and 21, US reconnaissance planes frequently entered the airspace of the South China Sea and south of Taiwan to provoke; on 21 July, the US side suddenly asked China to close its Consulate in Houston and unilaterally launched a political provocation against China.
This week, the impact factors of Sino US situation have been increasingly magnified. The United States is pressing China economically, militarily and politically. Geopolitics has triggered a surge in demand for safe haven.
2. Feature 1: industrial attribute superimposed price history bottom silver price rise is expected
Combined with historical price data, silver price trend generally follows gold, showing a certain monetary attribute; while the rise and fall range is greatly affected by the commodity price environment at that time, and the industrial attribute is highlighted.
Generally speaking, the price trend of gold and silver tends to be the same, but the sensitivity to external stimulus (geopolitics, monetary policy, investment demand, spot demand) is different. Risk aversion demand determines the basic price trend of silver, but the industrial use demand of silver plays a greater role in the rise and fall of silver price.
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The industrial demand of silver accounts for about 50% of the total global demand of silver. The industrial application of silver, such as photovoltaic power generation (solar power generation), ethylene oxide and other aspects of the demand continues to expand. According to the silver association’s forecast, the amount of ethylene oxide used to manufacture solar panels, photovoltaic cells and plastics and chemicals will consume 120 million ounces of silver annually from 2016 to 2020, an increase of 32% over 2015. Among them, the use of silver in photovoltaic industry increased by 7% in 2019.
On the supply side, there is only about 2.8 billion ounces of recoverable silver in the world at present. According to the world silver survey report in 2019 issued by the world silver association, the global silver mine production decreased for the third consecutive year, and decreased by 2% in 2018 to 855.7 million ounces. In terms of silver stock, unlike the low consumption of precious metal gold, about half of the silver mined (27.2 billion ounces) is expected to have been consumed, destroyed or discarded. The recovery and supply of silver has been running at a low level for a long time.
Under the influence of overseas epidemic situation in 2020, the production capacity supply of Mexico, the main silver producing country, is expected to be low. Silver supply fundamentals are good, supporting the current price rise.
On the demand side, global silver demand reached a three-year high of more than 1 billion ounces in 2018, an increase of 4% over 2017. Domestic demand for silver will be bright in 2020. Photovoltaic industry and 5g commercialization will boost silver industry demand expectations. The world silver association predicts that the global photovoltaic industry’s demand for silver is expected to drop by 3% in 2020, from 98.7 million ounces to 96.1 million ounces; the demand for silver in 5g is about 7.5 million ounces. However, the overall supply and demand fundamentals are good based on the expected contraction of supply and demand.
Although the price of silver rose by 16.67% in the year and 73.65% in March as the benchmark price, the current spot price of silver is still low in the historical price, equivalent to 58.28% of the price on September 1, 2011. Compared with gold, the current price is 108.99% of the price on September 1, 2011. There is huge room for silver prices to rise.
2. Characteristic 2: associated 60% supply tends to be similar to non-ferrous metals (lead, zinc, copper)
Associated, only 28.29% of global mineral silver comes from primary mineral silver, and the rest 71.71% comes from lead-zinc ore (35.99%), copper ore (23.55%) and gold mine (11.79%). Nearly 60% of the supply of mineral silver is deeply bound up with the production capacity of non-ferrous metals (lead, zinc, copper).
The main supply side of silver (mineral silver) is closely related to the non-ferrous metal operating rate. The supply and demand factors of silver are closely related to lead, zinc and copper, and the bulk commodity attribute is strong.
Ye Jianjun, precious metals analyst at business club, believes that global monetary easing policy expectations (negative real interest rates in some countries, inflation of central bank balance sheets), expectation of structural weakening of US dollar, geopolitics (for example, the increasingly tense situation between China and the United States) and other factors led to the explosion of market risk aversion in 2020, which led to a surge in investment demand for precious metals, which directly promoted the price of precious metals in terms of funds The price of gold has reached a new 9-year high in a row, silver price has followed the rise, and the monetary attribute of precious metals has continued to dominate the price trend of precious metals. Silver, which is relatively undervalued in history, due to its obvious triple characteristics (monetary attribute, industrial attribute and associated / bulk commodity attribute), is not as obvious as other varieties in the early stage, and its investment enthusiasm is lower than that of gold, platinum, palladium and other precious metals. At present, low valuation and industrial attribute value are rediscovered by the market. In addition, the recent general rise of nonferrous metals plate has led to a bull market With a strong atmosphere, it is expected that the silver price will continue to follow the trend of gold price in the near future, and the range of rise and fall is more imaginative than that of gold.
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