In the first half of 2020, the domestic polyester filament market showed a downward trend as a whole, with polyester POY falling the most obviously, with a half year decline of 22.42%, followed by polyester FDY with a decrease of 20.99% and polyester DTY with a drop of 19.03%.
Average price rise and fall of polyester filament Market from January to June 2020, unit: yuan / ton
Products rise and fall from January 1, 2020 to June 30, 2020
Polyester POY (150D / 48F) 7144 5542 – 22.42% – 33.99%
Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) 7623 6023 – 20.99% – 31.98%
Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) 8832 7151 – 19.03% – 27.95%
The first stage: from January to the first ten days of February, some factories in the traditional Spring Festival holiday entered the traditional Spring Festival maintenance state. At the same time, due to the spread of health emergencies, downstream production enterprises stopped work and logistics stagnated, and the demand side entered a “vacuum period”. Especially from mid February, the price of polyester POY (150D / 48F) fell to April 2, and the average market price was 4844 yuan/ Tons, the lowest price in nearly 10 years, down 63.42%.
The second stage: the Qingming holiday polyester filament downstream ushered in a wave of historical bottom reading, the factory went to the warehouse substantially, the inventory pressure eased, the enthusiasm for production was improved, so the price also ushered in a wavelet rebound. However, it is a pity that during the period from mid April to the end of April, due to the sharp drop of crude oil price and the negative value, the panic state of downstream completely covered up speculative purchasing, and the cost of polyester filament fell and the inventory was under pressure, so the price fell again.
The third stage: since the end of April, the price of polyester filament is getting warmer, which is mainly due to the rising demand for domestic polyester protective clothing, which leads to the downstream purchasing wave. At the same time, the price of crude oil market shows a fluctuating and rising pattern, and the cost side also forms a certain support. However, due to the domestic traditional off-season superimposed on the light export, the downstream weaving enterprises are nervous about the cash flow, and the purchasing tends to be rational gradually. The demand is low, and the continuous decline begins in mid June.
Commissioning of new domestic polyester plants in the first half of 2020, unit: 10000 tons
Company name production capacity supporting products launch time
Nantong Hengke 10 polyester filament cation, January 1, 2020
Hengyi Haining new material 25 polyester filament POY February 23, 2020
Wankai (Chongqing) 60 polyester bottle tablet, March 25, 2020
Jiaxing Yipeng 25 polyester filament, March 31, 2020
Dalian Yisheng 30 polyester bottle piece, April 3, 2020
Xinfengming Zhongyi 30 polyester filament, April 9, 2020
Nantong Hengke 10 full dull polyester filament, April 30, 2020
Lixin chemical fiber 3 polyester polyamide, May 23, 2020
Wuxi Huaya 20 polyester chip, May 28, 2020
Eason Hainan 50 polyester bottle tablet, June 9, 2020
Fujian Yijin 10 polyester staple fiber, polyester chip, June 10, 2020
Ganghong fiber (Shenghong) 20 full dull polyester filament, June 20, 2020
In terms of production capacity, under the background of continuous low market level, the growth rate of new production capacity of polyester and polyester filament in the same period in the first half of 2020 has increased significantly. The total new production capacity of domestic polyester is 2.93 million tons, including 1.2 million tons of polyester filament, accounting for 41% of the total new production of polyester. In comparison, the new production of domestic polyester in 2019 totaled 1.37 million tons, of which the new production of polyester filament was 530000 tons, accounting for 38.7% of the total new production of polyester in that year. From the perspective of long-term strategy of the industry, domestic pet leading enterprises still “go against the trend” and successively implement the previous production plan. First, accelerate the industrial layout of refining and chemical polyester integration, have strong capital and risk control ability, expand the enterprise capacity through their own enterprise strength, further improve the industry share, and squeeze the survival space of small and medium-sized enterprises; secondly, most of the products put into production are poor Alienated unconventional products enrich our own production line.
In the first half of 2020, the trend of polyester operating load is first down and then up, and then gradually returns to the normal level in a small fluctuation. After the traditional Spring Festival holidays and the spread of health emergencies, under the pressure of high storage, factories have implemented production reduction, and the operating load once dropped to a historical low near 6. Then, with the downstream weaving enterprises returning to work and the partial recovery of logistics, the demand port was released, which further promoted the start-up load of polyester filament. And under the background of inventory decompression and high production in the downstream of Qingming, the production enthusiasm of the factory has been continuously improved, and the current total start-up has reached a high level of more than 86%.
The PTA Market of raw materials fell first and then rose. As of June 30, the average market price was 3617 yuan / ton, down 27.35% compared with the beginning of the year, and 43.18% lower than the same period of the year. In the first stage, crude oil prices showed a cliff like decline under public safety and health events. Affected by this, PTA continued to decline and fell to 3068 yuan / T on April 22, breaking a new record low. Especially in February, due to limited transportation and insufficient demand, PTA inventory has accumulated significantly, reaching nearly 1 million tons in the current month. Entering the second stage, although the pressure of supply and demand continues to accumulate, and the social inventory has been maintained at more than 3.7 million tons since April, with the strengthening of crude oil, the cost side has shown favorable support, and the overall narrow range of upward.
In the downstream terminal textile and weaving Market, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms dropped to around 0.6% in early February. With the enterprises gradually returning to work, the demand rose to around 70% in the middle of March. The demand recovered slowly, and the order follow-up was insufficient, leading to many weaving manufacturers starting to reduce the burden and production to 40%. Entering may, the order situation is only partially improved, and the overall market trend is still unclear. In June, the atmosphere of the off-season gradually deepened, and it was even more difficult when it was in the off-season of a special year. The demand was sluggish and the transaction was light, falling to around 60%. At present, the conventional products are unsalable, there is no bright spot in the market, and the products are difficult to be transported, which leads to the weaving manufacturers to enter the cumulative inventory cycle. Judging from the current market situation, domestic trade competition is fierce, foreign trade recovery is difficult, weaving manufacturers will continue to accumulate inventory, if there is no substantial change in the future market, the starting rate of manufacturers may further decline. At present, there are about 43 days of cloth warehouse in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, about 41 days in the same period last year, and only about 25 days in the same period in 2018.
According to the latest statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, in May 2020, China’s textile and clothing export volume was 29.554 billion US dollars, with a month on month increase of 38.36%. Among them, the export volume of clothing (including clothing and clothing accessories) was 8.905.7 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 26.93%. From January to May of 2020, China’s textile and clothing exports amounted to US $97.965 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.80%. Among them, the cumulative export volume of clothing was 38.213 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 22.80%.
Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that the current crude oil production is in a period of reduction, forming a certain support. However, for PTA, the inventory is still at a high level, which is not enough to reverse the industry pattern of surplus supply and demand of PTA in the medium and long term. The current situation of high inventory is difficult to resolve, and the future PTA market is likely to weaken. At the same time, in the short term, the traditional off-season characteristics of textile terminal are more and more obvious, domestic demand is low, and it is difficult to make a breakthrough in export sales. Adding new devices to meet production, it is more likely that the price of polyester filament will fluctuate downward in the second half of the year.